Bubble Watch 2018

[herboturbo]

Speaking of teams 4 games over .500..I think I heard Palm say today..that only ONE team in the history of the tourney has ever gotten an at large berth being 4 games over .500 or less..that was Vandy a couple years ago

Not sure about 4 games over teams, but 2001 Georgia is the only team with less than a 4 game difference team that got in when they had a 16-14 record.

That team only played something ridiculous like 2 teams rated over 100 in the rpi that season

[auburnmarquette]

Also Alabama?

Good catch - luckily I already have Auburn gear so will wear it tomorrow and hope. I did have them ahead if us, so we'd need to just beat 4 of these 10.

Maybe Texas a & Ms departures including Duane Wilson even put them in play.

[BM1090]

Lunardi apparently has us as 5th team out

LAST 4 BYES: Providence, USC, UCLA, Texas
LAST 4 IN: Oklahoma, Bama, MTSU, Louisville

FIRST 4 OUT: Oklahoma St, ND, Arizona St, Syracuse
NEXT 4 OUT: Marquette, Baylor, Penn St, Nebraska

[brewcity77]

There is no case for MTSU ahead of us. None.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

I'm still bummed we got routed tonight, but this is still shaping up to be a fun night for college hoops. Butler and Seton Hall are in a tight game with 6 min to play, UNC overcame a 7 minute scoreless drought at the start of the game to mow be up 3 over Miami, and the SC v Arkansas game is a one possession game with 6 min to go.

Who doesn't love March?

Amen Brother Skianth. March is my Christmas

[BM1090]

ESPN Bubble Watch:

Bubble Watch nominates the Golden Eagles as the ultimate bubble boundary team of 2018. After losing to Villanova in the Big East tournament, they're almost perfectly positioned to be either the last team in or the first team out when the bracket is announced Sunday night.

With plenty of Champ Week basketball still to be played, the above description should spell bad news for Marquette. There should be plenty of eager bubble rivals still playing who are poised to bump the Golden Eagles out of the bracket.

With some cooperation from the hoops gods, Marquette may yet sneak in.

http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/page/bubblewatch030618/one-game-season-tourney-hopefuls

[BM1090]

Oregon ends Utah's slim hopes. Tomorrow we want Arizona over UCLA and Oregon over USC. Most importantly we want the winner of Arizona/UCLA to win the tournament

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Updated with the late games

Last Four Byes
Providence (PAST US)
Saint Mary's (PAST US)
UCLA (PAST US)
Oklahoma (PAST US)

Last Four In
Marquette (DONE)
Baylor (DONE)
Louisville (DONE)
Oklahoma State (DONE)

First Four Out
Arizona State (DONE)
Syracuse (DONE)
USC (ORST then UTAH/ORE)
Notre Dame (DONE)

Next Four Out
Alabama (TAMU then AUB)
LSU (DONE)
Penn State (DONE)
Nebraska (DONE)

Baylor loses so that's another team not passing us in this bracketology. I don't think USC beating lowly Oregon State and Bama beating TAMU is enough to pass us but could be wrong. Utah and Boise State also lost so cross off two more fringe bubble contenders.

I think the only bubble teams still alive in conference tournaments are USC, Alabama, and Mississippi State. Cheer for Oregon, Auburn, Tennessee, and against all bid thiefs from here on out. Provided those three lose their next game and there are no bid thieves (still a tall order) then the committee will be picking 6 teams out of these 12:

Alabama
Arizona State
Baylor
Louisville
Marquette
Middle Tennessee State
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Saint Mary's
Syracuse
USC

J5, maybe a blind resume game with these 12? I think they are all pretty close to each other at the moment.

[wisblue]

I don’t think there’s any reason to do blind resumes any more because it’s going to be easy to recognize who is who and I think it’s important to consider the quality of those Q1 wins and away game performance. Maybe a series of comparing MU to the other teams on the bubble to highlight resume strengths and weaknesses would be more helpful.

Even recognizing my bias I know how I come out on MU vs MTSU and MU vs SMC. But the Committee may want to address the complaints about loading the field with middling teams from the power conferences.

I think we have  to be careful what we wish for on Oregon vs USC. An Oregon win obviously hurts USC, but USC could still be ahead of MU and it would put Oregon dangerously close to bid thievery.

The Mountain West (where Nevada must win), the A10 ( where Rhode Island or St Bonaventure must win) and the AAC (where Cincinnati, Wichita State, or Houston must win) also bear watching.

BTW, by my count, of the 11 teams you list, I think there is only room for 5 of those 11 to get in, even if there are no more bid thieves. That assumes that Providence, UCLA, USC, St. Bonaventure, and Texas are all in.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Forgot USC somehow. Edited

[injuryBug]

How are the Bonnies safe?  If St Mary's and MTSU are on the bubble they should too

[muguru]

Dance card still has MU in...but what's weird is...he has Creighton at #46, below MU..I wonder what that's about??

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Dance card still has MU in...but what's weird is...he has Creighton at #46, below MU..I wonder what that's about??

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

I thought you were done paying attention to the bubble?

[CTWarrior]

ESPN sure doesn't like our chances.

Bracketology now has us in the next four out (5th team out overall). 

From the game story against Villanova:

...The Golden Eagles, who needed the win to stay in NCAA Tournament contention, were a two-shooter show...

...Marquette: The Golden Eagles were doomed by a four-game losing streak in a six of eight streak that knocked them out of NCAA contention...

...Marquette will likely miss the NCAA Tournament and hope for a second-tier postseason bid... (Jeez, can't at least just say "will end up in the NIT")

[Dr. Blackheart]

Dance card still has MU in...but what's weird is...he has Creighton at #46, below MU..I wonder what that's about??

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

MU beat them twice.

[cheebs09]

ESPN sure doesn't like our chances.

Bracketology now has us in the next four out (5th team out overall). 

From the game story against Villanova:

...The Golden Eagles, who needed the win to stay in NCAA Tournament contention, were a two-shooter show...

...Marquette: The Golden Eagles were doomed by a four-game losing streak in a six of eight streak that knocked them out of NCAA contention...

...Marquette will likely miss the NCAA Tournament and hope for a second-tier postseason bid... (Jeez, can't at least just say "will end up in the NIT")

I take that with a huge grain of salt. The Villanova would have done more than just put us in contention for a bid. It would have locked us up.

 Lunardi has been down on us and I think he’s going to be wrong on us. Assuming the tournaments go chalk the rest of the way and no stolen bids, I think we will at worst be one of the first two teams out.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

ESPN sure doesn't like our chances.

Bracketology now has us in the next four out (5th team out overall). 

From the game story against Villanova:

...The Golden Eagles, who needed the win to stay in NCAA Tournament contention, were a two-shooter show...

...Marquette: The Golden Eagles were doomed by a four-game losing streak in a six of eight streak that knocked them out of NCAA contention...

...Marquette will likely miss the NCAA Tournament and hope for a second-tier postseason bid... (Jeez, can't at least just say "will end up in the NIT")

ESPNs opinion is about as relevant as ours. Not sure how you make those comments about MU but still have Oklahoma or Alabama in the field. Oh wait....I know why.

[injuryBug]

I see 15 teams fighting for 10 spots
St Bonaventure
FSU
Texas
USC
UCLA
St Mary's
ASU
Baylor
LVille
Oklahoma
Marquette
Bama
OKSt
ND
MTSU

To me ASU and OK should be out, both have played awful the past 2 months. Yes nice wins early but what have you done for me lately.  Baylor and FSU do not do anything for me either. 
I am sure many fan bases are saying MU does nothing for them as well.

What will they look at Road wins?  RPI?  SOS? Q1 wins?  Q3 or 4 losses?  MU looks good in all but big Q1 wins

That said been a great week of hoops always one of my favorite weeks of the year!!

[Silkk the Shaka]

Dance card still has MU in...but what's weird is...he has Creighton at #46, below MU..I wonder what that's about??

http://www.unf.edu/~jcoleman/dance.htm

Intriguing

This shows a 4-team cushion. I just find it hard to believe we get in over USC, UCLA, Creighton, St. Mary's, Louisville, Florida St., ASU, and OK St.

Just feels like the committe will find any reason possible to keep the 7th place Big East team out. I woul LOVE to be wrong. Maybe they'd like to see us vs. Oklahoma in a first-to-100 shootout in Dayton

[Lighthouse 84]

Palm still has us in as an 11.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

[wisblue]

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

Bracketville, which had MU 3 teams inside the cut line yesterday, has them as the second team out now.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Palm still has us in as an 11.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/

I really wish Palm wasn't terrible at this, but I hope he's right!

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

Intriguing

This shows a 4-team cushion. I just find it hard to believe we get in over USC, UCLA, Creighton, St. Mary's, Louisville, Florida St., ASU, and OK St.

Just feels like the committe will find any reason possible to keep the 7th place Big East team out. I woul LOVE to be wrong. Maybe they'd like to see us vs. Oklahoma in a first-to-100 shootout in Dayton

The head of the committee is the Creighton AD. If anything, we'll have a leg up being a BE team.

If 7, 8, 9 of the Big 12 are in contention, why not 7 in the BE?

USC, St. Mary's, and Middle Tennessee have a combined total of 1 win against teams seeded 11 or better in Bracketmatrix.  MU has 5.

I really think MU's resume is being undervalued by most bracket projections.  We might not make it, but there are plenty of reasons to give Marquette a bid.

[mu03eng]

Just feels like the committe will find any reason possible to keep the 7th place Big East team out. I woul LOVE to be wrong. Maybe they'd like to see us vs. Oklahoma in a first-to-100 shootout in Dayton

Why other than self-image issues? Objectively there are plenty of reasons that MU can be included and being the 7th team in the 2nd best league in the country is not really an objective reason not to include us.

The committee won't have an issue including the 7 or 8 Big East teams if that many teams meet the ranking criteria they consider important. Here's the key, almost literally the only criteria we lose out on against other bubble teams on is the number of Q1 wins or at least "sexy" Q1 wins. All other metrics we are equal or better than bubble teams.

If we don't make the dance it will be because the committee deemed beating really good teams as the number 1 metric and will have nothing to do with where we finished or how many teams are in from the Big East.

[MUfan12]

I think you nailed it. If they look at the numbers over the course of the season, I think MU gets in. If they place major emphasis on having a "signature" win(s), then MU is on the outside looking in.