Bubble Watch 2018

[frozena pizza]

Thus far this is been a bad day for us bubble wise.  Other than Ville loss,  not good.

I am starting to think we really need to win tonight.  A few more upsets and we are screwed if we lose tonight.

Don't want to be sweating on Sunday.  Let's make it easy for the committee and do this.

Pretty early to say that.  Alabama winning was not helpful but there is a lot of basketball left to be played.  Bottom line is that there is exactly one game today that truly matters.

[wisblue]

Creighton needs to win 2 games (PC and X) to get into top 30 per RPI wizard as of this am.

Do you think that when the Selection Committee is sitting in the room looking at team sheets for the last few teams around the bubble, that a Q1 win over RPI 29 will make much of (or any) difference compared a Q2 win over RPI 34? 

I really don’t. I see those quadrants as a grouping for convenience but the Committee will look beyond them and recognize that a win over Creighton is nice, but not as nice as a win over a top 5 or top 10 team.

[wisblue]

Going by this they were close to being out
https://painttouches.com/2018/03/07/bid-probabilities-for-all-bubble-teams/

I’m looking at this attachment and I’m not buying that if MU beats Villanova they will move up to an 8 seed. Teams don’t jump 15 places on the seed list because of one win.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

The most important game so far was Louisville losing to UVA. A win there would have pushed them above us. A loss likely locks them behind us.

Alabama beating TAMU was the second most important so far and it didn't go out way. Despite win,  I think they are still behind us on the bubble,  even if we lose. They need to win their next one to move past us IMHO.

VCU winning helps. Xavier winning is good but minimal impact. TCU would have been nice for potential seeding purposes but I agree with J5,  they are likely in anyway.

1-1 in key games,  2-1 in other bubble games

[auburnmarquette]

Going by this they were close to being out
https://painttouches.com/2018/03/07/bid-probabilities-for-all-bubble-teams/

Agree - bama loss was the tough one. Espn said 99% chance of a bid with a win and 1% with a loss, so that was a bid taken away.

[D'Lo Brown]

Is Nevada potentially behind us if they lose?

What if they lose by a few vs a 20 point loss? Any difference?

[PGsHeroes32]

Nevada getting waxed

Kansas might lose to Okstate again

This is a nightmare day

[LAZER]

Nevada getting waxed

Kansas might lose to Okstate again

This is a nightmare day

Take a deep breath

[Its DJOver]

Nevada getting waxed

Kansas might lose to Okstate again

This is a nightmare day

You're scaring people. Nevada is down 5 early in the second half.  Kansas is winning.  Hardly at nightmare levels yet.  There may come a time to freak out, but it is not now.

[rocky_warrior]

Take a deep breath

No kidding, those two are both close games still.  Plus Georgia currently up on Missouri - not bad.

[MUBigDance]

Do you think that when the Selection Committee is sitting in the room looking at team sheets for the last few teams around the bubble, that a Q1 win over RPI 29 will make much of (or any) difference compared a Q2 win over RPI 34? 

I really don’t. I see those quadrants as a grouping for convenience but the Committee will look beyond them and recognize that a win over Creighton is nice, but not as nice as a win over a top 5 or top 10 team.

I think that "Visual" does make a difference. Certainly every team is an increment....but the Sheets are built for Visual comparison. I especially am concerned about Q3. Oklahoma has a lot going against it recently but look at the Q3,Q4....clean...no Red spots. A Q3 red makes a big difference....now MU has two...Georgia slipped into it...I sure wish GA was a Q2 loss at 75 not a Q3 loss at 80....big visual difference especially tagged with Depaul's red blotch.

Certainly they will dig and look at a lot of other factors...but comparing OK and MU, OK "looks" so much better.

Having said all that, if we can keep from getting blown out, we will be ok. Don't want a blowout in the committee minds when splitting hairs. I think we have a chance if we're not banged up.

[PGsHeroes32]

You're scaring people. Nevada is down 5 early in the second half.  Kansas is winning.  Hardly at nightmare levels yet.  There may come a time to freak out, but it is not now.

Nevada was down 12

And might lose perfectly describes a 1 pt game

Also...there’s already been Bama and TCU(albeit not as much).

UL was a win for us but I don’t see us making it over them assuming a Nova loss

[monkeyman34]

Nevada getting waxed

Kansas might lose to Okstate again

This is a nightmare day

haha, just read this, checked the scores, and "Nevada getting waxed"  means they're up by 1?  ok

[Its DJOver]

Nevada was down 12

And might lose perfectly describes a 1 pt game

Also...there’s already been Bama and TCU(albeit not as much).

UL was a win for us but I don’t see us making it over them assuming a Nova loss

VCU also won, which helps.  Clemson's gonna win to prevent a bid thief. Xavier won to prevent a bid thief.  All I'm saying is pace yourself, If you already think the sky is falling, it's only gonna get worse, because before Sunday another bubble team will win a game

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Nevada getting waxed

Kansas might lose to Okstate again

This is a nightmare day

[LoudMouth]

Im starting to envision these next few days ryder cup style. We went 1-1 in the morning pairings.
We are close in the afternoon groupings and we shall see for the night games.
Or maybe im just ready for golf season

[barfolomew]

haha, just read this, checked the scores, and "Nevada getting waxed"  means they're up by 1?  ok

-- Hi, Welcome to the MUScoop Salon and Spa. What kind of waxing would you like today?

-- Mmm, let's go with "The DePaul"

[ZiggysFryBoy]

-- Hi, Welcome to the MUScoop Salon and Spa. What kind of waxing would you like today?

-- Mmm, let's go with "The DePaul"

"The DePaul" is the a$$hole waxing, right?

[mu03eng]

"The DePaul" is the a$$hole waxing, right?

No because you are probably into that.....I'm pretty sure it be some sort of taint waxing if that is a thing

[WarriorInNYC]

That overturn of possession in Providence/Creighton was awful.  Both refs and announcers missed where the Creighton player stepped out of bounds then touched the ball.

[mu03eng]

Umm it's 1535 and both Nevada and Kansas are now winning....not all is lost I guess.

[BM1090]

That overturn of possession in Providence/Creighton was awful.  Both refs and announcers missed where the Creighton player stepped out of bounds then touched the ball.

Yeah that was terrible. Only thing I could think of was that the ref made the call before the ball actually went out of bounds. He made the call initially as if it hit the line, so can they only review that far? Idk.

[Its DJOver]

Umm it's 1535 and both Nevada and Kansas are now winning....not all is lost I guess.

Throw in a Clemson Win, Arizona winning, and hopefully Creighton can hold on.  The sky might stay up there after all.

[rocky_warrior]

That overturn of possession in Providence/Creighton was awful.  Both refs and announcers missed where the Creighton player stepped out of bounds then touched the ball.

Just posted the same in the TV thread.  How could everyone miss that.  I just kept yelling at the TV.  How stupid.  They even had a replay they they stopped just as the CU player was touching the ball out of bounds.  Weird.

[LAZER]

I'm not very familiar with the quadrants system, but could a UGA win move them from Q3 to Q2?