Author Topic: Bubble Watch 2018 (Read 244122 times)

skianth16 · « **Reply #1300 on:** March 08, 2018, 10:26:09 AM »

How does OK State have an SOS in the mid 50s with 15 Q1 games on their schedule? Did they play Chicago State 3 or 4 times?

LoudMouth · « **Reply #1301 on:** March 08, 2018, 10:28:41 AM »

Quote from: skianth16 on March 08, 2018, 10:26:09 AM

How does OK State have an SOS in the mid 50s with 15 Q1 games on their schedule? Did they play Chicago State 3 or 4 times?

Non-Con SOS of 311....Ouch
Sounds like us a few years back

brewcity77 · « **Reply #1302 on:** March 08, 2018, 10:39:02 AM »

Quote from: NickelDimer on March 08, 2018, 10:25:30 AM

For some weird reason when he went up I thought he would miss. No idea why but I didn’t even get up off of my couch

He was too open for his own good. You could see the little hesitation before he shot. I wasn't worried at all when it went up, more worried about the rebound.

Speaking of which, Rowsey did great on that rebound. Instead of jumping with everyone else, he hesitated and timed it well to insure he came down with it.

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan · « **Reply #1303 on:** March 08, 2018, 10:41:49 AM »

Quote from: LoudMouthHagans on March 08, 2018, 10:28:41 AM

Non-Con SOS of 311....Ouch
Sounds like us a few years back

I see 287. But that, along with their poor RPI, is probably the only thing that is going to give the committee pause on OK State. They did play Texas A&M (L), Wichita State (L), Arkansas (L) and Florida State (W) in the noncon, but the rest of their buy games were awful.

Benny B · « **Reply #1304 on:** March 08, 2018, 10:50:05 AM »

Quote from: brewcity77 on March 08, 2018, 10:39:02 AM

He was too open for his own good. You could see the little hesitation before he shot. I wasn't worried at all when it went up, more worried about the rebound.

I saw that too.... as though he was perplexed at being so wide open (despite that being the design of the play).

LoudMouth · « **Reply #1305 on:** March 08, 2018, 10:51:38 AM »

That is what I get for going on ESPN. NCAA team sheets give them a 305 non-con SOS though
http://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/March%206,%202018%20Team%20Sheets.pdf
Scroll on down to 89. Granted, last update was 2 days ago

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan · « **Reply #1306 on:** March 08, 2018, 10:56:59 AM »

Quote from: LoudMouthHagans on March 08, 2018, 10:51:38 AM

That is what I get for going on ESPN. NCAA team sheets give them a 305 non-con SOS though
http://extra.ncaa.org/solutions/rpi/Stats%20Library/March%206,%202018%20Team%20Sheets.pdf
Scroll on down to 89. Granted, last update was 2 days ago

I generally use Warren Nolan for all info. They show it at 287. In any event, it is bad.

skianth16 · « **Reply #1307 on:** March 08, 2018, 11:02:39 AM »

Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 08, 2018, 10:41:49 AM

I see 287. But that, along with their poor RPI, is probably the only thing that is going to give the committee pause on OK State. They did play Texas A&M (L), Wichita State (L), Arkansas (L) and Florida State (W) in the noncon, but the rest of their buy games were awful.

If they pull off the 3 game sweep of KU today, I think you've got to put them in. That brings their RPI up to 67, which is still going to be lower than some other bubble teams, but that would be a huge thing to accomplish. I think I heard recently that Self has never been swept by a conference opponent in his time at KU. 3 wins for OSU over KU would be pretty darn impressive.

TallTitan34 · « **Reply #1308 on:** March 08, 2018, 11:05:13 AM »

Quote from: LoudMouthHagans on March 08, 2018, 10:24:19 AM

So to get this all straight.... Every team in the Big12 has a good win because they beat Oklahoma...

This is my favorite post of the week.

auburnmarquette · « **Reply #1309 on:** March 08, 2018, 11:07:24 AM »

I'm not saying Lunardi is right - in fact I hope he is really off on Marquette, but I took his Tuesday update and based on what he said was needed then and what has happened since then here is how I believe HE would grade the chances of these 15 on the bubble. Basically 1 A, 7 Bs, then 3 Cs ahead of us for 8-10 spots (depending on spoilers) but many that could still move up or down today.

8 to 10 of these 15 GET INTO THE TOURNAMENT (1 a AND 7 Bs have inside track to take most or all of these spots, but C’s and D’s can still get in)
Bid notes as of Tuesday (http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/22664991/bubble-team-needs-do)

1.   D- Alabama: As a current "last team in," the Tide must beat Texas A&M, at least, in the SEC opener. (First Four Out – Lunardi thinks needs win over Texas A&M Thur, 2-pt underdog)--

2.   B- PROBABLY IN - Arizona State: Out with a loss to Colorado in 8-9 game of Pac-12 tourney. (last 4 in – lost to Colorado so Lunardi predicts OUT of Pac12- LOST) -

3.   C -Baylor: Could sneak in without a win over West Virginia on Thursday, but don't bet on it. (last four byes, 4-point underdog)--

4.   C -Florida State: Should make it even with a loss to Louisville on Wednesday. (Lost, but likely still in, out of ACC)--

5.   B -Kansas State: Likely in regardless, but a Thursday win over TCU seals the deal. (9-seed coming in, so likely in, 3-pt underdog to Texas Tech) --

6.   B - Louisville: The Cardinals will be an unlikely choice without a win over Florida State. (last four in, but win over Fl State Wed probably put them in, 9-pt underdog to UVa) --

7.   D - Marquette: Beat DePaul and Villanova; anything less won't be enough. (stayed alive with win over DePaul, but Lunardi believes need win over Nova – first four OUT – Nova favored by 11)

8.   D - Mississippi State/LSU: Winner of this second-round game must reach the SEC final. (LSU favored by 1)

9.   C - Notre Dame: The path for the Irish includes two victories with a healthy Bonzie Colson.(8 pt underdog to Duke, but win over Va Tech might get them in)

10.   B - Oklahoma: Sooners are on the bubble but will be in the NCAA tournament. (Out of Big 12 but probably still in)--

11.   D- Oklahoma State: Must beat Oklahoma on Wednesday and maybe Kansas a third time to get in because of a weak nonconference record. (5-pt underdog to Kansas and might need that to get in)

12.   B - Providence: The Friars' combination of great wins and ugly losses makes their quarterfinal with Creighton a necessary insurance policy. (5-pt underdog to Creighton and might need it) --

13.   F - Syracuse: The Orange have to beat Wake Forest (Tuesday) and North Carolina (Wednesday) hopefully loss to UNC Wed knocked them out).

14.   A - Texas: The danger in playing the last-place team is losing; the Longhorns make it with a win. (win over Iowa State Wed probably put them in) --

15.   B - USC and UCLA: Neither can afford a loss in the conference semifinals. (both in but need to win Thursday plus one more to stay in) -- --

TAMU, Knower of Ball · « **Reply #1310 on:** March 08, 2018, 11:12:01 AM »

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

Bracketville updated this morning. They have us as at the top of the Last Four In.

Last Four Byes
Providence (CREI then XAV/SJU)
Saint Mary's (DONE)
UCLA (STAN then COLO/ZONA)
Oklahoma (DONE)

Last Four In
Marquette (NOVA then HALL/BUT)
Baylor (WVU then TTU/TU)
Louisville (UVA then CLEM/BC)
Oklahoma State (KU then KSST/TCU)

First Four Out
Arizona State (DONE)
Syracuse (DONE)
USC (ORST then UTAH/ORE)
Notre Dame (DUKE then MIA/UNC)

Next Four Out
Alabama (TAMU then AUB)
LSU (MSST then TENN)
Penn State (DONE)
Nebraska (DONE)

A loss to Nova won't push us down. Assuming this is correct (BIG assumption)...the only four teams that are currently out that could catch us are USC, Notre Dame, Alabama, and LSU....and I don't think LSU gets in ahead of us given the head to head record unless they win three in the SEC tournament.

We currently have a three team buffer but all three teams are still alive. Every team in the Last Four In is a significant underdog today. If chalk holds, we should keep our three team buffer. Of course, UCLA losing to Stanford may be enough to drop them below us so we might have a four team buffer.

I think three of the four teams that could catch us will be favored today...but I also think that none of those wins are good enough to elevate them above us, so they will likely need to win two. If Notre Dame beats Duke that might be enough.

Also can't rule out the bid thieves. The ACC, Big East, PAC 12, SEC, MWC, AAC, and possibly CUSA are still capable of producing a bid thief. I wouldn't expect more than 2 and am thinking it will be 1 or less.

No real conclusion to this post, just some random mumblings about one of the more accurate bracketolgists. Let's just beat Nova and have all the other bubble teams lose to remove all doubt.

dinger · « **Reply #1311 on:** March 08, 2018, 11:21:27 AM »

Quote from: MUeagle1090 on March 08, 2018, 12:52:46 AM

Language sure is changing regarding MU on ESPN's bubble watch

Work to do

Marquette (19-12, 9-9 Big East)
(BPI: 45 | SOS: 12 | SOR: 42 | RPI: 56)

Not only is it the case that Marquette might make the NCAA tournament, the Golden Eagles might have already done so. Season sweeps of Creighton and Seton Hall, a .500 record in the Big East (same as Butler) could get the job done.

Then again, Marquette can end any speculation by taking down Villanova in the Big East tournament quarterfinals. A win against the Wildcats could elevate Marquette all the way to a single-digit seed.

So do we really want to lose tonight so we can avoid the 8/9 seed?

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan · « **Reply #1312 on:** March 08, 2018, 11:22:36 AM »

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on March 08, 2018, 11:12:01 AM

https://bracketville.wordpress.com/bracketology/

Bracketville updated this morning. They have us as at the top of the Last Four In.

Last Four Byes
Providence (CREI then XAV/SJU)
Saint Mary's (DONE)
UCLA (STAN then COLO/ZONA)
Oklahoma (DONE)

Last Four In
Marquette (NOVA then HALL/BUT)
Baylor (WVU then TTU/TU)
Louisville (UVA then CLEM/BC)
Oklahoma State (KU then KSST/TCU)

First Four Out
Arizona State (DONE)
Syracuse (DONE)
USC (ORST then UTAH/ORE)
Notre Dame (DUKE then MIA/UNC)

Next Four Out
Alabama (TAMU then AUB)
LSU (MSST then TENN)
Penn State (DONE)
Nebraska (DONE)

A loss to Nova won't push us down. Assuming this is correct (BIG assumption)...the only four teams that are currently out that could catch us are USC, Notre Dame, Alabama, and LSU....and I don't think LSU gets in ahead of us given the head to head record unless they win three in the SEC tournament.

We currently have a three team buffer but all three teams are still alive. Every team in the Last Four In is a significant underdog today. If chalk holds, we should keep our three team buffer. Of course, UCLA losing to Stanford may be enough to drop them below us so we might have a four team buffer.

I think three of the four teams that could catch us will be favored today...but I also think that none of those wins are good enough to elevate them above us, so they will likely need to win two. If Notre Dame beats Duke that might be enough.

Also can't rule out the bid thieves. The ACC, Big East, PAC 12, SEC, MWC, AAC, and possibly CUSA are still capable of producing a bid thief. I wouldn't expect more than 2 and am thinking it will be 1 or less.

No real conclusion to this post, just some random mumblings about one of the more accurate bracketolgists. Let's just beat Nova and have all the other bubble teams lose to remove all doubt.

Thanks TAMU. This paints a pretty positive picture about our situation. If all of Marquette, Baylor, Louisville and OK State lose today (as they'll be projected to do), this should all remain as is. I don't think any of those losses are bumping them out of the field, except for maybe OK State getting traded out for ASU, USC or perhaps ND if they beat Duke today (which I doubt they will do).

Mr. Nielsen · « **Reply #1313 on:** March 08, 2018, 11:23:31 AM »

Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 07, 2018, 11:42:03 PM

Same. Where TF did they find this guy?

Your age is showing on your question.

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan · « **Reply #1314 on:** March 08, 2018, 11:30:34 AM »

Quote from: Mr. Nielsen on March 08, 2018, 11:23:31 AM

Your age is showing on your question.

Didn't realize it was the same dude. Put that together on the other thread. Looks like he'd dropped a few.

I used to watch that show, but I was about 13-15 when it ran.

Mr. Nielsen · « **Reply #1315 on:** March 08, 2018, 11:32:47 AM »

FS1 had to find another guy, since FOX let Stewart Mandel go last year.

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan · « **Reply #1316 on:** March 08, 2018, 11:34:53 AM »

Quote from: Mr. Nielsen on March 08, 2018, 11:32:47 AM

FS1 had to find another guy, since FOX let Stewart Mandel go last year.

Ya, he does brackets for The Athletic now.

Its DJOver · « **Reply #1317 on:** March 08, 2018, 11:38:27 AM »

Late in the first half and Virginia is on pace to put up 70. If they reach that, not very many offensives will be able to catch them.

Mr. Nielsen · « **Reply #1318 on:** March 08, 2018, 11:40:25 AM »

Quote from: JamilJaeJamailJrJuan on March 08, 2018, 11:34:53 AM

Ya, he does brackets for The Athletic now.

Correct. Sounds like all the guys and gals who got laid off went to the Athletic. It's a pay site, I believe.

JamilJaeJamailJrJuan · « **Reply #1319 on:** March 08, 2018, 11:40:58 AM »

Quote from: Mr. Nielsen on March 08, 2018, 11:40:25 AM

Correct. Sounds like all the guys and gals who got laid off went to the Athletic. It's a pay site, I believe.

It is. And well worth the doe. Especially if you're a baseball fan.

Dr. Blackheart · « **Reply #1320 on:** March 08, 2018, 11:41:23 AM »

Quote from: brewcity77 on March 08, 2018, 09:37:53 AM

Yup. The common belief is that high majors will always have the chance to make up for a weak or disappointing non-con in the regular season. But with unbalanced schedules, a down year in the league can kill a team's chances.

Nebraska may well be good enough, but they accomplished nothing in non-con and didn't beat the teams that would be in the tournament with them, so I can't see any way they can justify their inclusion, except having 12 conference wins against non-tournament teams. You don't have to be in the Big 10 to do that.

I think the B1G was hurt more by losing a week of non-con versus being big with misaligned team play.

MUBurrow · « **Reply #1321 on:** March 08, 2018, 11:57:33 AM »

TWITTER TRACKA
Wild tweet from ESPN analytics:

Quote

St. John's could go from 15% chance to make the tournament to 77% with a win over Xavier per espn.com/bpi . St. John's is only 16-16 but already has the best pair of wins in the country per BPI (Duke & at Villanova).