Bubble Watch 2018

[skianth16]

Nebraska is also the perfect example of why these huge conferences don’t work.  Because they are so big, you con’t play a round robin schedule.  So yes, they have a really good conference record, but they didn’t play some of the big dogs twice, and when they did, they lost.  So the conference record is bloated because they played Rutgers, Minnesota and Illinois two times.

The big conferences are fine. The "old" Big East was a great conference. The current ACC and SEC are doing just fine. This was a down year for the Big Ten. They'll be back again soon enough.

[brewcity77]

Nebraska is also the perfect example of why these huge conferences don’t work.  Because they are so big, you con’t play a round robin schedule.  So yes, they have a really good conference record, but they didn’t play some of the big dogs twice, and when they did, they lost.  So the conference record is bloated because they played Rutgers, Minnesota and Illinois two times.

Yup. The common belief is that high majors will always have the chance to make up for a weak or disappointing non-con in the regular season. But with unbalanced schedules, a down year in the league can kill a team's chances.

Nebraska may well be good enough, but they accomplished nothing in non-con and didn't beat the teams that would be in the tournament with them, so I can't see any way they can justify their inclusion, except having 12 conference wins against non-tournament teams. You don't have to be in the Big 10 to do that.

[WarriorDad]

Here we go again-the Chico’s derangement- let’s review-in 2008, when crean left,  we had a chance to hire an established coach for the first time.  Chico’s wanted Bennett, stallings and a few others.  Stallings won SEC coach of the year,in 2007 and again in 2010.  He was a national coach of the year and finalist as well as he had his teams,in top 25 routinely.  He may be down now-10 years later, but he would have been a coup to get considering we were constantly getting assistant coaches.  When buzz was hired, our top recruit and his high school coach as well said they didn’t trust buzz as many MU fans didn’t as well.  They didn’t know what we had.  The hire was initially a real head scratcher. 

  Lenny, as I stated earlier, you seem to like to poke at a guy who’s unable to defend himself now.  And you know, when you and others continue to assail the bailsbondsman, no one is going to challenge you guys cuz, well it’s chicos.  10 years ago stallings was an excellent coach and his hire would have been highly praised.  From 2007-2012, his teams won more than 20 games and finished as high as 7th in the AP poll. 

Not sure about your claims, for example he was ever national coach of the year, though a finalist might be accurate.  An excellent coach at the time as you mention, but everyone ages and becomes obsolete at some point in time.  He appears to be fired today but will receive all $9.4M of his buyout.  One of my siblings is a Panther and I follow them with some closeness.

List of potential replacements include Hurley, Matta, Crean.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/Pitt/2018/03/08/kevin-stallings-fired-pitt-coaching-candidates-dan-hurley-thad-matta-tom-crean/stories/201803070021

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

If Georgia beats Missouri today and loses to Kentucky tomorrow, per RPI Wizard, their RPI will rise to 74, and MU will only have one Q3 loss on the resume.  Go Bulldogs!   

[mu03eng]

KenPom is 100% most assuredly considered by the committee... it's right there in black and white on the Team Sheet.  Just follow the orange arrow (and don't get distracted by that shiite about Canada being on sale):

At least it's not an ad for Japanese tenacle porn or something amirite?

[Sir Lawrence]

KenPom is 100% most assuredly considered by the committee... it's right there in black and white on the Team Sheet.  Just follow the orange arrow (and don't get distracted by that shiite about Canada being on sale):

I'm more intrigued with the "Donor Parts Guide" tab on your toolbar....

[cheebs09]

If Georgia beats Missouri today and loses to Kentucky tomorrow, per RPI Wizard, their RPI will rise to 74, and MU will only have one Q3 loss on the resume.  Go Bulldogs!

Not sure if it still holds true, but Paint Touches said a Creighton win likely gives us another Q1 win.

[goldeneagle91114]

for what is worth, we won and Lunardi dropped us another spot... He now says we are the 4th team in the first 4 out category.

[rocket surgeon]

Not sure about your claims, for example he was ever national coach of the year, though a finalist might be accurate.  An excellent coach at the time as you mention, but everyone ages and becomes obsolete at some point in time.  He appears to be fired today but will receive all $9.4M of his buyout.  One of my siblings is a Panther and I follow them with some closeness.

List of potential replacements include Hurley, Matta, Crean.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/Pitt/2018/03/08/kevin-stallings-fired-pitt-coaching-candidates-dan-hurley-thad-matta-tom-crean/stories/201803070021

I’ll have to look up the coach of the year thing again, but yes, today he isn’t doing so well.  My reference was to 10 years ago.  Would I hire him today?  Probably not so much.  Pitt may have to pay him$9.4 mil on his way out

[Schoolyard Degenerate]

Don't think I've seen this here, sorry if I missed it, but it looks like there are currently 8 At Large spots up for grabs. Granted that can change a bit here and there depending on who wins conference tourneys.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-03-08/bubble-watch-these-9-teams-still-have-ncaa-tournament-hopes

Selection committee chair Bruce Rasmussen told NCAA.com Wednesday night that the committee voted in 28 teams into the at-large pool. That includes some teams that will win their automatic qualification, meaning the number to get to 36 at-large spots could grow beyond eight

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Not sure if it still holds true, but Paint Touches said a Creighton win likely gives us another Q1 win.

Just ran the numbers.  Per RPI Wizard, Creighton needs to beat PC and X to get into the top 30 in RPI.  Obviously other results can change things, but thats how it stands right.   

[mu03eng]

for what is worth, we won and Lunardi dropped us another spot... He now says we are the 4th team in the first 4 out category.

Even without Blue and Gold glasses that is totally insane from Lunardi.

[cheebs09]

for what is worth, we won and Lunardi dropped us another spot... He now says we are the 4th team in the first 4 out category.

I would say he moved teams ahead of us compared to dropping us. I am starting to tune out the bracket gurus. With so many teams so close, the committee could be a total wild card. We may be a 10 seed in their eyes at the moment for all we know.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

for what is worth, we won and Lunardi dropped us another spot... He now says we are the 4th team in the first 4 out category.

Prior to MU game, he had dropped Marquette to 5th team out.  He actually slid us back ahead of Syracuse after the all results went final last night.

Having ND and Alabama ahead of MU right now is silly. 

[WarriorDad]

I’ll have to look up the coach of the year thing again, but yes, today he isn’t doing so well.  My reference was to 10 years ago.  Would I hire him today?  Probably not so much.  Pitt may have to pay him$9.4 mil on his way out

OK, understand.  Yes, back in 2008 he would have been seen as a very good hire for us.  Vanderbilt was doing well, and MU could claim to finally convince a major Division 1 coach to come to Milwaukee.  I cannot remember the last decade we pulled that off.  Always been an assistant or a head coach at a small school for as long as I can remember. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Don't think I've seen this here, sorry if I missed it, but it looks like there are currently 8 At Large spots up for grabs. Granted that can change a bit here and there depending on who wins conference tourneys.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2018-03-08/bubble-watch-these-9-teams-still-have-ncaa-tournament-hopes

It is 8 assuming all autobids are stolen.  Assuming teams that are otherwise locks win their conference tourney, it grows by 1 each time.  Its going to be more like 12-14 still up for grabs at the end of the day.

[fjm]

Prior to MU game, he had dropped Marquette to 5th team out.  He actually slid us back ahead of Syracuse after the all results went final last night.

Having ND and Alabama ahead of MU right now is silly.

Heard him in ESPN radio this morning. He said Oklahoma and Oklahoma state should both get in. And also the ND should get in because you can't ignore how good they are/would be with bonzie back. 

[brewcity77]

Heard him in ESPN radio this morning. He said Oklahoma and Oklahoma state should both get in. And also the ND should get in because you can't ignore how good they are/would be with bonzie back. 

Can you argue that they lost to Indiana and Ball State with him?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Heard him in ESPN radio this morning. He said Oklahoma and Oklahoma state should both get in. And also the ND should get in because you can't ignore how good they are/would be with bonzie back. 

Yah.  I mean, I think Oklahoma and Ok State have legit cases to get in.  Lots of Q1 wins. But I don't know.

I have always been a fan of Lunardi.  Seems like a good guy and I've respected his opinion.  But this year he just seems so intent on pushing ACC, B12 and SEC teams.  Notre Dame does not belong.  The B12 should not get 9 bids.  Alabama shouldn't be all that close.  It just seems he's been told to push teams that play on ESPN. I get ESPN is his employer and he needs to drive eyes to the channel, but he just seems so biased this year. It is honestly tough to watch.

[GoldenDieners32]

OKST has a few good wins but some bad losses

[TheGym]

Heard him in ESPN radio this morning. He said Oklahoma and Oklahoma state should both get in. And also the ND should get in because you can't ignore how good they are/would be with bonzie back. 

I still don't get Oklahoma State being in, two huge wins versus Kansas.  But rankings in results-based and predictive-based are not good.  Never before has an RPI of 85 been close to getting in.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

OKST has a few good wins but some bad losses

Not really.  OK State has no Q3 or Q4 losses. 

Q1: 5-10
Q2: 4-3
Q3: 2-0
Q4: 8-0

Their biggest issue is an RPI of 85.  Assuming Oklahoma gets a bid, they haven't lost to a team that won't be in the tournament all season. 

[mu03eng]

I think one of the things the experts aren't doing a good job of explaining and/or missing is just how firm the bubble is as compared to previous years of soft bubbles. MU's numbers this season would have them as a lock any other season in the last 10, but they are rightfully a bubble team this season. There are a lot of teams that are jammed on the bubble together so the confirmation bias is pretty strong this year.

Depending on how the next two days go I think Sunday will be very "controversial" because there will be a way to talk about how at least 6 teams were snubbed. Drama for days.

[LoudMouth]

So to get this all straight.... Every team in the Big12 has a good win because they beat Oklahoma...
According to Lunardi we have to judge ND with Bonzie and the team they will have going into the tournament but we can't focus on OU, ASU and Alabama's team going into the tournament but rather what they did early in the year.
That logic makes sense

[NickelDimer]

Let me analyze it this way.  We've got a much better chance of hearing our name called Sunday compared to when Strus elevated for that uncontested 3.   

For some weird reason when he went up I thought he would miss. No idea why but I didn’t even get up off of my couch