Schedule over next 5 games

[Big Papi]

Its great to see us at the top of the Big East standings.  With our brutal last 5 games, I thought it would be interesting to see what are next 5 games look like. 

DePaul   
@Notre Dame
Georgetown 
@DePaul   
@South Florida

We probably really need to win 4 of our next 5 games to set a run at the top 4 Big East spots.  A top 4 finish allows us to have 2 byes during the conference tourny and in all likelihood gets us a very high seed in the NCAA tourny. 

For comparison sakes here are the next 5 conference games for the teams that are in contention for the top 4 spots.

Louisville Schedule

@Rutgers 
@Syracuse   
South Florida
West Virginia 
Connecticut

Louisville has relatively easy games at Rutgers and South Florida with a chance to trip up against West Virginia and 2 tough games.  They will probably have 1 and at most 2 losses after their next 5 games.

Syracuse Schedule

@Pittsburgh 
Louisville
@Providence 
West Virginia 
@Villanova

A very tough 5 game stretch.  No easy wins in the bunch.  We probably would like to see them lose 3 games here and concede Louisville and Pitt, top 4 finishes.

Pittsburgh Schedule

Syracuse 
@West Virginia
@Villanova 
Notre Dame 
@DePaul

One gimmie game and some potential trip up games on the list including at West Virginia(rivalry game) and Villanova.  I doubt they go undefeated during this 5 game stretch.

UConn Schedule

Villanova 
@Notre Dame 
@DePaul 
Providence 
@Louisville

At Louisville is definitely the marquee matchup here.  At ND is never easy.  Should be able to handle Villanova and Providence at home.

Georgetown Schedule

West Virginia 
@Seton Hall 
@Cincinnati 
@Marquette 
Rutgers

Will probably pad their record during this 5 game stretch.  Their only real potential loss in this grouping is on the road against us.  We really need to beat Georgetown at home for a shot at a top 4 finish.

ND Schedule

Connecticut 
Marquette 
@Pittsburgh
@Cincinnati 
Louisville
 
One word.  BRUTAL.  ND could very well be in a huge uphill climb for a NCAA tourny berth after this stretch with at least 3 losses on the menu and as many as 5 to go with their already 3 losses.  I don't see ND as a factor for the top 4.

Should be a very interesting 2 weeks or so where ND and Syracuse take a bit of a dive and the top 5 (MU, Louisville, UConn, Pitt and Georgetown) separate from the pack for the time being.

 

[TallTitan34]

Great post fanatic.

Right now we are 5-0 with a good chance to be 6-0.  Even if we lose all of our final five (which I don't think will happen) we would be at 6-5.  As long as went 4-3 in the remaining seven games (which is doable in my opinion) that would put us at 10-8 clinching a 5-8 seed, first round BET bye, and a NCAA spot.

And that is assuming we lose our final 5 games.

Though our seed would scare me if we lost those final 5 games....

[THEGYMBAR]

Guys---Every once in a great awhile things fall into place. This team has the making of being a special team in MU history. Barring injury the final five games might have 2-3 wins. Have watched MU for almost 40 years and actually have a feeling about these guys I have not had since Wade. Prior to the Wade run I had not had that feeling in 25 years.

Remember that great Sr. players means a great deal in today's game. I'll take my chances with mature, strong guards over younger big guys. In my mind we beat Stanford last year and they a couple of big time studs down low. My advice---watch this team closely and enjoy the ride. It might go a ton further than you think.

[Tom Crean's Tanning Bed]

Even with the final 5 games for us as they are, for us to finish 12-6 in conference, we'd have to finish 7-6 down the stretch.  Judging from how we've played thus far this season, something though is telling me that this team is better than a 12-6 team in conference play.

Will this team ultimately win the Big East?  I don't know.  But I do know we're a team that's better than barely above .500 over the last 13 games of our Big East schedule. 

[DegenerateDish]

I said this in a different thread, but I love our BE schedule and how it plays out. The result @ Providence only solidified my belief.

I love having those five games all in a row. If in the middle of that stretch, MU was @ Rutgers, or @ Providence, then that would scare me. Having a trap game in that mix would be the worst thing that could happen.

MU will have to bring the same intensity out for all five games, and will be more than battle tested by that point. Plus as MU continues to roll up victories now, everyone else will beat themselves up, and MU should be in a prime position (maybe 3 BE losses) in complete control of their own destiny.

I think getting UConn and Cuse at home works. Ideally I'd rather have Pitt at home, but of those five, the second and third games I'd rather have at home are UConn and Cuse. This group of seniors have been through the ringer plenty with 'Ville and even though we will have played G-Town once already, we owe them a heartbreaker on their end from last season.

[Doctor V]

i hate ND just as much as the next guy, and i think that we match up well against them, but in no way would i give them a small shot at the top 4 even with 3 losses already.

In that 5 game stretch, they have 3 of those 'fighters' for the top 4 at home, Uconn, MU, and Louisville and Pitt and Cincy on the road. They are really tough at home, and this may be a good time for them to get 2 or 3 marquee wins @ home with no bad losses. Then they have a must win at Cincy and a no pressure game at Pitt. If they win 4 of 5 they are still in solid shape. If they win only 2 they are truly in trouble with 6 losses already.

As for us, youd hate to say we need 4 of the next five, but Id say we do if we are gonna be in the top 4. ND away and Gtown at home are both winnable games in my opinion. 3-2 wouldnt be the end of the world, 4-1 would be great.

Biggest thing is not taking a loss to DePaul or SF, but it is the BE and crazier things have happened

[Big Papi]

i hate ND just as much as the next guy, and i think that we match up well against them, but in no way would i give them a small shot at the top 4 even with 3 losses already.

In that 5 game stretch, they have 3 of those 'fighters' for the top 4 at home, Uconn, MU, and Louisville and Pitt and Cincy on the road. They are really tough at home, and this may be a good time for them to get 2 or 3 marquee wins @ home with no bad losses. Then they have a must win at Cincy and a no pressure game at Pitt. If they win 4 of 5 they are still in solid shape. If they win only 2 they are truly in trouble with 6 losses already.

As for us, youd hate to say we need 4 of the next five, but Id say we do if we are gonna be in the top 4. ND away and Gtown at home are both winnable games in my opinion. 3-2 wouldnt be the end of the world, 4-1 would be great.

Biggest thing is not taking a loss to DePaul or SF, but it is the BE and crazier things have happened

I say we need 4 out of our next 5 if we want to finish in the top 4 of the Big East with the Georgetown game at home being huge for us. 

I still think ND is in trouble and won't finish in the top 4 unless they get a whole lot of luck.  Their next 5 games are just brutal.  They get UConn, Louisville and us at home.  My opinion is that UConn and Louisville are better teams than ND and we match up well against ND.  (The homer in me says we beat ND but there is a reason why they have that long win streak at home.)  They very well could win 2 out of those 3 but that still doesn't get them in serious contention for one of the top 4 spots as they have Pitt on the road.  So best case scenario for ND is 2 losses over the next 5 games and that puts them at 5 losses on the season and they still have to play at UConn, at Providence and at West Virginia.  I don't know how they don't have at least 6 losses and probably 7.  That St. Johns loss was a killer for them and I think ultimately cost them any shot of getting them a top 4 seed in the Big East.  Than again maybe I just hate ND so much that my heart is not giving them a chance in hell.

[bilsu]

The winner on senior night between MU and Syracuse will get the fourth spot. Pittsburg, Louisville and Uconn in no particular order will be 1 through 3.

[The Lens]

The winner on senior night between MU and Syracuse will get the fourth spot. Pittsburg, Louisville and Uconn in no particular order will be 1 through 3.

+1

[Henry Sugar]

The winner on senior night between MU and Syracuse will get the fourth spot. Pittsburg, Louisville and Uconn in no particular order will be 1 through 3.

Don't set your sights so low.  I really believe Marquette has a shot at finishing with 14 or even 15 wins.

In my opinion, there are four separate segments of the season.  Three games in eight days (DPU, @ND, GU).  Three games on the road (@DPU, @USF, @Nova).  Two games we should win handily (SJU, SHU).  The final stretch.

What if Marquette makes it through the next eight games losing only twice?  MU would have to play well, but it's not inconceivable because the team is playing well.  Marquette may have built up a head of steam by those final games and then the final stretch is just a battle to win a championship.

Marquette CAN compete for the Big East championship this year.  Don't settle for fourth.

[Henry Sugar]

I just ran some numbers real quick.

Here are the odds of our record going into the final five games (please excuse any rounding errors)

7-6 (2%)
8-5 (8%)
9-4 (20%)
10-3 (30%)
11-2 (25%)
12-1 (14%)
13-0 (2%)

Or, there's about a 40% chance that the team goes into the final stretch of games with only two losses, knowing that the BE title is on the line.

It's not the most likely scenario (10-3 is), but it's not crazy.

[ErickJD08]

Our last 5 games are about as tough as it gets.  In all honesty, I love my team but I think its 5 losses.  Maybe a win on Senior night.  And I would be happy with one win.  If we win 3 (or more) out of the last 5, can we say Final Four team?  We are going to most likely be in the top 10 after that stretch.  If those wins happen, guys like Otule and Fulce and Butler will be reliable subs.  And we would be consistently beating National Champion contender teams. 

Trust me, I would like to mop up those games but I am counting those as losses when thinking about where MU can end up in our conference.  If ANYONE on this board thinks we can get three or more wins in the last 5 games, then you are basically saying we are a National Championship contender.  I don't know if we are there.

[6Under20]

Pomeroy has it play out in the following manner:

Pitt, Uconn and Louisville all at 14-4
GU and MU at 13-5 (with GU winnng the tie breaker by beating us twice)
WVU at 12-6
Syr at 11-7
Nova at 10-8
and ND at 9-9

These all seem resonable and I guess I would take these results if offered right now.  Although I may want to throw in a victory vs GU in one of those games to get into the top 4.

[Henry Sugar]

The Pomeroy predictions are not that good for several reasons.  If nothing else, where's the confidence interval?

Let me be clear.  I am not saying that Marquette is definitely going to compete for the Big East championship  (most likely view is 12-6).  I am saying that it's not just crazy talk to think they can. 

Furthermore, my point is that context matters, and should Marquette get to that final stretch of games with the title within grasp... why not?  The next eight games are a lifetime, but don't give up hope.

[mucrew08]

The way the team has been playing, and the senior leadership, I really think that we can compete with any team in the Big East. Thinking of it that way I think we can compete with 2 of the projected 1 seeds for the tourney (as of yesterday). Call me crazy but if things click and work out the way they can, we could be national contenders (I don't think we win, but we could get there).

I think people are selling this team to short this season.

[MUSF]

This is a good team but they have shown time and time again that they struggle with athletic bigs.  That is why they will not win the Big East and why, depending on the matchup, they could have issues early in the tourney. With the right matchup they could make a deep run in March but with the wrong matchup they could be headed home after the first weekend.

Senior leadership or not, we are still a team with a fatal flaw.

[muwarrior87]

MUSF, while I'm not saying we are as good as Duke this year, they have a similar team makeup as we do.  After watching them play Georgetown the other day, they gave us a very good way to beat them.  Louisville and UConn are tougher because along with their size, they are athletic bigs as well. You can even lump Syracuse in with them as well.  If we are able to spread the floor and score from the outside, that opens up the possibility of driving to the basket and getting an easier look with the floor spread or drawing a foul on the oppositions big.  The more we can control the tempo and flow of the game against these opponents, the more chance I think we have of hiding, if not at least limiting, that fatal flaw's appearance in the game.

[DegenerateDish]

I'm in complete agreement with Sugar on this, it's not crazy at all to think MU can contend for the BE crown.

The schedule works out completely in MU's favor. As the season progresses, especially over MU's next 8 games, just keep paying attention to the L column in the standings. It's conceivable that Notre Dame will have 4 BE losses by the time we play them Monday.

As tough as our last 5 games are, let's not forget other teams have difficult (not as difficult as MU's) stretches to end the season.

UConn's last five: Pitt, USF, @MU, ND, @ Pitt (Outside of South Florida, that's a brutal stretch)

Pitt's last six: @ UConn, DePaul, @ Prov, @ Seton Hall, MU, UConn (@ Prov has trap game written all over it)

ND's last five: @ Prov, Rut, @ UConn, Louisville, SJU (ND is already in trouble right now, let alone three tough ones here)

Louisville's last five: @ Cincy, @ G-Town, MU, Seton Hall, @ WVU (1 cupcake, four tough games)

Syracuse's last five: Nova, @ SJU, Cincy, Rutgers, @ MU (easiest stretch of any contender)

G-Town's last five: MU, Louisville, @Nova, @SJU, DePaul  (second easiset, but three tough games in there)

[MUSF]

MUSF, while I'm not saying we are as good as Duke this year, they have a similar team makeup as we do.  After watching them play Georgetown the other day, they gave us a very good way to beat them.  Louisville and UConn are tougher because along with their size, they are athletic bigs as well. You can even lump Syracuse in with them as well.  If we are able to spread the floor and score from the outside, that opens up the possibility of driving to the basket and getting an easier look with the floor spread or drawing a foul on the oppositions big.  The more we can control the tempo and flow of the game against these opponents, the more chance I think we have of hiding, if not at least limiting, that fatal flaw's appearance in the game.

The big difference between us and Duke is that they shoot the 3 better and more consistently.  That said, when Duke goes cold from the outside, they usually struggle.

[🏀]

The big difference between us and Duke is that they shoot the 3 better and more consistently.  That said, when Duke goes cold from the outside, they usually struggle.

We are more athletic than Duke, by a lot.

[MUSF]

We are more athletic than Duke, by a lot.

Agreed, but Duke is much more athletic than they were last year. 

Like I said originally, we struggle against teams with good, athletic big men.  We can out quick teams with slower, big bodied, back to the basket types, i.e. Harangody/ND, but teams that match our athleticism and have size, give us fits, i.e. Louisville.  The best way to beat those types of teams is to move the ball around the perimeter, keep wide spacing, and knock down open outside shots.  We don't always hit those outside shots consistently, Duke does.  Don't get me wrong, I don't think Duke is a great team this year and in fact, I would really like our chances against them head to head, but they typically use the 3 point shot to mitigate their lack of size and athleticism.  I'm just not sure we could follow that same model successfully.

[Big Papi]

Thought I would bump this up now that everyone has already played some of these games to see whats left after some of the carnage

MU

W      DePaul   
W      @Notre Dame
Georgetown 
@DePaul   
@South Florida

Right now, we are in great shape for that double bye.  Need to pull out a win against Georgetown as they always seem to give us fits.

Louisville

W      @Rutgers 
W      @Syracuse   
W      South Florida
West Virginia 
Connecticut

Louisville continues to roll.  THey have 2 tough games here but both are at home.

Syracuse

L       @Pittsburgh 
L       Louisville
L       @Providence 
West Virginia 
@Villanova

They really needed that Providence game.  Next 2 games are tough with no easy games on the horizon. I don't see them finishing ahead of us.

Pittsburgh

W       Syracuse 
W       @West Virginia
L        @Villanova 
Notre Dame 
@DePaul

Pitt is looking solid for a top 4 finish even with the loss to Villanova. 

UConn Schedule

W        Villanova 
W       @Notre Dame 
W       @DePaul 
Providence 
@Louisville

UConn is rolling along.  At Louisville is definitely the marquee matchup here and they still have Pitt twice.  If we want the Big East title, we probably want them to beat Louisville.  Either way they will finish in the top 4.

Georgetown Schedule

L      West Virginia 
L      @Seton Hall 
L      @Cincinnati 
@Marquette 
Rutgers

Ouch!!!!! Four game losing steak when it looked like they could pad their record with 4 wins during this 5 game stretch.  They still have plenty of time to right the ship but seeing that they have already lost 5 games, they kind of have to win out to get that double bye.  I don't see that happening.

ND Schedule

L     Connecticut 
L     Marquette 
@Pittsburgh
@Cincinnati 
Louisville

Nothing has gone right for the irish during this prolonged losing streak and a best case scenario for them right now is to be a bubble team come selection Sunday because they still have a lot of tough games.  9 losses seem like a given, with 10 a distinct possibility.

Last time I did not include Villanova or Providence in the discussion for a top 4 finish and double bye.  I won't include them now either but I might during a look at the home stretch as it looks like I will drop off ND and possibly Georgetown and Syracuse if they don't turn it around quickly.

All in all its been a very good week and a half for MU. 

[chapman]

Thanks for the update.  What you have to love looking at the standings is the number of L's next to some of those teams and how it relates to our finish.  We will very well drop some games, but Villanova and WVU have alraeady lost three games, Syracuse has already dropped 4, Notre Dame and Georgetown 5, with plenty of tough games left.  While it may be tough to stay at the top, it's also looking more and more improbable for us to take a complete nosedive in the standings, even with plenty of tough games to play.

[Ellenson Guerrero]

In my opinion we are a lock for the double bye. Just look at our remaining games, (my very humble projections in parentheses).

Georgetown (L)
Depaul (W)
USF (W)
Nova (L)
St. Johns (W)
Seton Hall (W)
GTown (W)
Conn (L)
LVille (L)
Pitt (L)
Syracuse (W)

Imagining we somehow choke this week, lose at Nova and fall in 3 of our final 5 we stil end up at 13-5, which I feel at this point is very reasonable finish. Now in order for us to get knocked out of the double bye, Providence (currently 6-2, with a loss to us) would have to go 8-2 over their last 10, or WVa or Nova (both currently 4-3 with losses to us) would have to go 10-1. I can't imagine either of those happening.

[dsfire]

Nova is a mirror game this year and would split with us under your scenario.  They're a good team and have already finished their games against UConn, Pitt, and Louisville (as well as here, obviously).  I wouldn't count them out just yet.

[Big Daddy Z]

if we lose to GT on Saturday we will lose to Depaul on Tuesday....book it.

[MUSF]

Well, so far I was right about MU not struggling with ND but hopefully I'm wrong about the Louisville game.

I love this team so far but I have a feeling we could lose to the Ville by double digits.

[spartan3186]

if we lose to GT on Saturday we will lose to Depaul on Tuesday....book it.

Worst. Prediction. Ever.

There is no way we lose to DePaul regardless of what happens against Georgetown. Georgetown has about 1000x more talent than DePaul