[Cracked Sidewalks] Pre-Season Roundtable - Part One

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Pre-Season Roundtable - Part One

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Rob Lowe)

Did anyone else say "Holy crap... basketball season starts on Saturday!", or was it just us?  Anyways, it prompted Cracked Sidewalks to kick off another roundtable as we look forward to the season.  As we've done the last few times, we'll do this in two parts.  In part one, we'll focus on the Team (mostly).  In part two, we'll look at the contributions from individual players.

Part 1 (The Team)

Go on record - pick where you think this team will finish and tell the story of why it'll happen.

Tim
MU will finish 9th in the BIG EAST.  The entire BIG EAST will take a step back this year and Buzz Williams has as much incoming talent as anybody, plus the league's most efficient returning offensive stalwart in Lazar Hayward and the heady Jimmy Butler.  With Yous Mbao only missing two meaningless games and Darius Johnson-Odom recovering quickly from an injury Buzz Williams should enter the season with a deep roster.  Despite the loss of the Three Amigos and the unfortunate Cadougan injury, the Warriors stand to be deep, athletic and talented particularly on the wings and in the backcourt -- a formula we're all familiar with.  We'll have to wait and see if the skill level of the newcomers translates into BIG EAST-ready performances but I'm cautiously optimistic.

Rob
The preseason story for me is actually that this team could finish anywhere from 4th through 13th in the league.  When forced to pick, I think that the team will end up 9th in conference with a sub-500 record of 8-10.  (editors note - jinx with Tim)  I do believe that the team will be better than the predicted 12th place finish, but that they won’t be quite good enough to get to 0.500 in conference.  If telling a story, I’m predicting at least one shocking loss to go along with some stumbles during the non-conference schedule.  Then, I think that the team will go 0-4 their first four conference games before righting the ship with defensive improvement over the end of the season.  However, the early season gauntlet will be too much to overcome.

Kevin
I think we are headed for a very long season.  Over the last decade, MU has eaten umpteen cupcakes, but not this year, as I'll guess we start the BE season with 5 losses, easy.  A .500 record in the BE would be an achievement.  I think we'll finish around 9th and head to the NIT.

muwarrior92
I think we have a window where we can finish anywhere from 7th to 13th.  The Big East is going to be down, we're already seeing it this week with Syracuse's horrific loss to DII Le Moyne.  A ton of talent left this league to go to the NBA or through graduation.  That doesn't mean the league isn't talented because it's loaded, but very young.  So is Marquette....talented and young.

The preseason will be of great interest this year.  I see us starting out 4-0 before losing the first two of the Old Spice tournament, possibly all three.  Then they have NC State and Wisconsin in two of the next three, both difficult games.   I can't see us with more than 8 wins coming out of the non-conference... maybe even 7.

On the other hand, the conference did us a huge favor giving us DePaul and Providence as mirror games.  MU should do well in those 4 games.  Unfortunately Villanova is the other mirror game.  Overall, I see us at 8-10 in the Big East but could go 10-8, especially if Hayward plays as a dominant force this season.  Because of youth, I'll stick to 8-10 and 10th in the conference.  That means a 16 win season before going into the Big East tournament.  Hopefully a NIT berth.

Why we will finish 16-14: Youth will be our biggest Achilles heel, especially on the road.  Lack of depth at some positions will also be of considerable concern.  Why we will finish better than 16-14:  To finish better than 16-14, we would need the freshmen to mature quickly, stay injury free, especially at the PG guard position, and get a little lucky.

Where do you think there will be disappointment and pleasant surprises with the team?

Tim
This year expectations are too high for Dwight Buycks and Darius Johnson-Odom.  As Rob's analysis last month showed, JUCOs often struggle to be big-time contributors during their first season in the BIG EAST.  I wouldn't be surprised to see Johnson-Odom emerge as a big-time player rather than Buycks, but to expect both of these guys to be major forces is a stretch.

Still, one of the great joys of fandom is watching a program build, watching a team build within a season and year-to-year knowing that greater success is coming.  I'll be looking for positive player development, about the ceiling for the program's newcomers and hoping the team has a puncher's chance to win just about any game this season.  In terms of specific players, one hopes that Joe Fulce emerges as a solid contributor after a season lost to injury.

Rob
From a team perspective, I think there will be disappointment in the execution on both offense and defense.  With all of the newcomers, I don’t think that the offense will be very good.  And yet, I also don’t believe that the defensive execution will be enough to overcome it.  I fear a profoundly mediocre offense and defense.

However, this entire season will be one of pleasant surprises for me.  My expectations are either very low, or grounded in a total lack of substance.  Basically, I plan on being pleasantly surprised by just about everything good that happens.  If it’s unexpected contributions, growth from individual players, or even just a good effort on the court… those will all be pleasant surprises.

Kevin
I just don't have much data on this team to answer this.  Some freshman will be surprising, because we've got a gaggle of them, one of them will break out.   I'd hate to label a player a disappointment before seeing them play, but suffice it to say, I think our 5s will not impress this year.

muwarrior92
The pleasant surprise will be Buzz Williams.  With another year of maturity as a coach, he will adapt well and keep this young team together.  As for disappointment.... not sure.  I guess I'd go with Lazar Hayward.  I hope I'm wrong, but my thought is that teams will focus on shutting him down since he's our only proven top player.  As a result, he may get frustrated and struggle.

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2009/11/pre-season-roundtable-part-one.html

[downtown85]

Good work guys.  I feel there is a bit of a disconnect by all the low ratings of MU by experts and some other inklings that I have heard recently.  Some of these inklings are as follows:

-- Buzz has seems pretty satisfied with regard to the way the team has been practicing.  He seems like the type of coach that will say when the practice has been lousy.  I haven't heard him say that at all this year.  I am inferring from this that he feels the team is progressing quite well.

-- UVA scrimmage.  Buzz's prediction or hope that the team would get absolutely slaughtered did not seem to happen.  Also, there is a rumor that Maymon and Buycks really tore it up. No mention of Hayward who should've been the guy to shred the other team.  Maymon and Buycks (and perhaps DJO) may actually be contriubuting at a high level come conference time.

--  Mbao.  What I have seen of him does not impress me that much.  However, Buzz seems to think he is one of the better big man freshmen he has ever seen in his coaching career.  Perhaps by conference season he will get stronger and more consistent.

--  Expectations game.  It is much better to have low expectations and exceed them than to hype the team and fall below the expectations.   I think Buzz is managing expectations with the national media outlets.  Granted the coaches themselves rank us 12th in the BE.  But is MU really the 83rd best program in the country this year? 

We will know a lot more when we finally get to see this team play.  It will be interesting to watch how badly and in which way we beat the cupcakes.  The real first test will be against Xavier at the OSC.  In the meantime, I stick to my original predictions.  9-3 non-conf.  10-8 BE, 1-1 BET, 0-1 NCAA.  call me a homer wearing blue and gold glasses! 

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

Can I just say that I really like those roundtables?

PS: DePaul is not going to be as bad as last year, IMO. I think we'll split with them. I wouldn't be upset with an NIT bid this year...but this is the only year I'll say that.

[bma725]

Crap, I suppose it would help if I actually respond to my e-mail in a timely manner.  Nice job guys, I'll try to get my stuff in today for part two.

[chapman]

General things I agree with:
-Agree strongly that expectations are too high for Buycks and DJO.  DJO is still getting back in the loop, and we’ve heard Buyck’s decision-making might be as bad as McNeal’s freshman year.   You can score 15 points and play good defense but still kill your team by shooting poorly and turning the ball over, and I think we’re going to see that more than we'd like from Buycks and DJO.  Very rarely do Juco’s just jump in without missing a beat; there seems to be a learning curve as big as for any freshman.  They may have some talent, but I’m not optimistic they can win many matchups against solid BE backcourts.  

-Expect one or two losses that are perplexing and feel just plain wrong.  Losing to Iona to go 0-3 in the Classic?  NC State, UWM, at DePaul, any of those games.  Another Cincinnati-after-Uconn or Rutgers of 05-06, or NDSU the next season, or USF last season (doesn’t just happen to young teams).

-Not to expect a 10-win non-conference season.  


General things I disagree with/other observations:

-This team will not go 0-4 to start the Big East season.  You heard it here first.

-To go along with the perplexing losses, expect one or two wins that you don’t see happening (such as one of those first four games).    

-I don’t think enough emphasis has been placed on home and road matchups.  Young teams in particular tend to struggle on the road, but it works both ways since we’re not the only young team.  Had we played UConn and Syracuse at home I’d predict at least one as a win, maybe both.  I am predicting Pitt as a win because it’s a home game.  I also seem to be one of the few who thinks the game at Providence is a likely loss rather than a gift-wrapped win.

-We might have low expectations, but some expectations for BE teams are high without much to back them.  Of the top 6 or 7 teams in the BE, count on a couple to fall on their faces compared to expectations ala ND and Georgetown last year.  It could be one of those same two teams, it could be UConn, it could be Syracuse.  This is where those hopefuls/bubble teams like Cincy, St. John’s, and Seton Hall will need to capitalize and get themselves in the tournament.

[RJax55]

PS: DePaul is not going to be as bad as last year, IMO. I think we'll split with them. I wouldn't be upset with an NIT bid this year...but this is the only year I'll say that.

Honestly, DePaul can't get any worse. The fact that Wainwright is still employed there says all you need to know about that program. I concur with you, an NIT bid would meet my expectations for this season as well.

Btw- One thing that I haven't seen mention yet as a strength for this year's squad is rebounding. Even though we are still small, we have some guys that can really get after it on the glass. Both Hayward and Butler (especially on the offensive glass) did a very nice job last year rebounding. Throw in Fulce and Maymon and I see rebounding as a plus for this team, even without a traditional big man.

[MU_Iceman]

Let's face it, opinions are like A$$holes, we all have them...but as long as we're playing this game, here are mine:

Disappointments

- Hayward will not be the dominant force so many of us want him to be...he's always been a solid contributor, but never the type to take over a game, and now his supporting cast is an unknown.  I expect him to struggle early.

- O'Tule will look like a mid-major talent...I love that he appears quicker and stronger, but every Rosiak report I've ever read references his inability to finish around the basket, at 6'10", that's a real concern. We've also read that he has bad hands and isn't as effective of a rebounder as they'd like.  I hope he proves me wrong, but I'm expecting the worst

- Buycks won't live up to the hype - just a concern of mine

- Lack of PG depth will be our achilles (pun intended)...I am one of the few who thinks Acker can run this team just fine, but all reports are that DJO is NOT a PG and we all know Cubi isn't either...I'm worried about the 1

Pleasant Surprises

- Acker will provide sufficient leadership and run the point better than most expect him to

- Butler will emerge as a dominant dual threat (offensive & defensive)...I truly believe that Jimmy will be the next MU player taken in the NBA draft ('11).  He has the right body, athleticism, and heart for the next level; all he needs to do is develop a bit of a perimeter game and the sky is the limit for him

- Maymon will develop into a reliable post player...watch haunted hoops, the kid gets at the boards very well and I have high hopes for him

- Mbao will progress...let me clarify, he WILL NOT be effective as a freshman, but watch haunted hoops closely, he runs the floor well, he has good positioning and foot work, and I think most impressively, he looked GOOD at the free throw line (which is saying a lot for a kid his size).  I think by his jr year he's heralded similarly to the way Hasheem Thabeet was

That's my two cents...