X Factor vs X

[PGsHeroes32]

Ok lets see who agrees with me here

Jay Bilas since doing the BET has been raving about JFB deservingly so. Jimmy will be a real match up problem here. He will get his. Tu Holloway is a stud, he will get his. I think DJO and Lyons will cancel each other out just fine as well. Buycks and Junior should help. They have McLean on the boards. Otule and Ox should do just fine with Frease and hopefully get him in foul trouble. So whose the X Factor? The obvious.

Jae Crowder.

A couple of our big wins against WVU and Cuse were thanks to Crowder being THE BEAST. He has been slumping lately but this is the game we need him. If Jae gets involved and its some outside shots while also being good down low and on the glass and makes his Fts I think we should win this game

Is it agreed that this game could be as Jae goes, we go?

[HoopsMalone]

It seems like every game depends on DJO draining to me. 

I'd put Crowder as the second most reliable player after Jimmy.  DJO hitting giving us three scorers and then the other guys chipping in something means we win this game.  Crowder is definitely important though.

[Knight Commission]

We need Jae to hit the trailing (ala Hayward) 3. He was sucessful doing it earlier in the year, essentially abandoned it during conference play, and only started trying it again (with limited success) during the Big East tourney. If he could hit two of those early.....look out.

[MikeyT42]

I think the X factor is Buycks and his ability to guard Holloway. There is no way Junior can guard him. If DB can guard him and keep him out of the paint we have a legit shot at winning this game.

[lab_warrior]

I actually think it will be the bench combo of Cadougan-Gardner-Blue, with possibly EWill and Jones in there.  If we get minutes from those guys like the WVU game, we'll win. 

[PGsHeroes32]

I actually think it will be the bench combo of Cadougan-Gardner-Blue, with possibly EWill and Jones in there.  If we get minutes from those guys like the WVU game, we'll win. 

This is true as well. Gardner and Junior will be big as well to help offset some of their down low and guard strengths. I just basically said Jae is huge because the few times hes really scored big in games, we have won. If hes scoring and getting rebounds there really isnt anyway I see that we lose this one. But will he?

[NersEllenson]

It all comes down to DJO draining shots...when DJO playes well..we win..against almost anyone.  If Crowder and DJO are both going - we are virtually unbeatable.

Jimmy B is always going to be solid, if not spectacular.

I really think the guys are going to play really well...

[MUBurrow]

I think vander (i know, big surprise coming from me) will be the difference.  We can hang with the other switchables of the world on D, but we have a real matchup problem when it comes to guarding true guard, undersized scorers.  I think that given Holloway's unique size and explosiveness, we see some major birth by fire for Vander and his defensive ability in this game.

[79Warrior]

It all comes down to DJO draining shots...when DJO playes well..we win..against almost anyone.  If Crowder and DJO are both going - we are virtually unbeatable.

Jimmy B is always going to be solid, if not spectacular.

I really think the guys are going to play really well...

I agree. If DJO is on his game we win. If he struggles, our offense tends to struggle.

[Dawson Rental]

We'll see a whole lot of Tu Holloway - he plays 38+ minutes a game, and he hasn't been in foul trouble since January 9th, against Rhode Island, 18 games ago.

He can be stopped, though.  Butler did it, and they're ranked slightly worse defensively than us by Pomeroy.  Cincinnati stopped him cold. Charlotte kept him in check twice and they're rated 208th defensively by Pomeroy.  MU should definitely check out those game films.

Butler        2 of 11, including 1 of 6 from 3pt; 5 of 7 from the line

Cincinnati   2 of 13, including 0 of 5 from 3pt; 1 of 3 from the line

Charlotte    3 of 17, including 0 of 8 from 3pt; 3 of 9 from the line, this is the game that Charlotte won

Charlotte    1 of 6, including 0 of 5 from 3pt; 2 of 3 from the line, Xavier won this one easily because Holloway gave the ball up due to the pressure on him defensively.

Holloway averages 7.5 FTs on 8.65 FT attempts per game.

[Blackhat]

If Xavier plays a pack it in man to man defense then I think Dwight Buycks and DJO are keys.   

Need to hit our outside shots to open up the lane on drives.

[Dawson Rental]

If Xavier plays a pack it in man to man defense then I think Dwight Buycks and DJO are keys.  

Need to hit our outside shots to open up the lane on drives.

Three pointers will kill these guys.  They have to pack it in on D, to avoid foul trouble, since their coach only trusts 7 players.  Xavier plays three guards, and doesn't have anyone on the bench to substitute at that position.  The only rest the guards get is when a forward comes in for one of them, and Xavier goes to a two guard setup.

I've got to think that this also makes these guys vulnerable to a press.

[rayjoe2]

Defense is the key.  Something is missing when they give up all those open 3s  good D and everyone on their game..no stupid fouls in the backcourt and no stupid turnovers  in the paint and we win

[Blackhat]

I think we get beat too easily on the drive which forces help and then we don't recover in time on the 3.

When the opponent guard beats our guards shoulder ours guards need to open up and retreat on the right angles to recover and get back in front of the guy before help is needed, imo.  Recovery angles are important.   That's my amateur opinion.  

[MisterJaylenBrownMU]

I'll put my money on Junior Cadougan.  I think a trick to this game is forcing Holloway to work on both ends of the court and JC has been getting better at drawing fouls on the drive with every game this season.  I like his fearlessness on those fast break drives and I think he has the potential to give Holloway fits if we can get into transition.

I'm fascinated to see what Buzz's strategy will be against X's backcourt.  Sounds like Holloway is a similar player to Jordan Taylor -- virtually identical Assist% (30.5 v. 30.4), Holloway has a significantly worse turnover% (8.9 v. 19.0), Holloway gets to the line much better (69.1 FT rate v. 39.8 for Taylor), Holloway is a better 2 point shooter (49.3% v. 46.4%) and Taylor is a significantly better 3 point shooter (43.3% v. 34.9%).   This year we gave up 21/3/3 to Taylor.  I think Xavier needs at least that from Holloway and probably more.

If I'm Buzz, I stick Butler on Holloway because he's the best on the team at drawing the charge on the drive.  Tell Butler to concede the 3, play a step and a half back on him at the perimeter, and dare Holloway to shoot jumpers all game.  Blue is quick enough to do that, too, but he's worse at drawing the charge and always seems to lean into the contact.  This would be a great opportunity for him to step up, though, and I'd love to see Blue put on a shutdown performance like we were hearing about with Team USA.

This might be a close one, fellas.

[MisterJaylenBrownMU]

Upon further review, Christ are X's free throw rates high.  Both Holloway and McLean are top-55 in the country at right around 69.  The only Big East players with comparable numbers are Tyrone Nash (98.4) and Joe Mazzulla (84.2). (Next closest: JFB at 65.0)  The X factor might be the refs and how willing they are to call incidental contact on the drives.  If there are a lot of whistles, could be a frustrating game.

[willie warrior]

Ok lets see who agrees with me here

Jay Bilas since doing the BET has been raving about JFB deservingly so. Jimmy will be a real match up problem here. He will get his. Tu Holloway is a stud, he will get his. I think DJO and Lyons will cancel each other out just fine as well. Buycks and Junior should help. They have McLean on the boards. Otule and Ox should do just fine with Frease and hopefully get him in foul trouble. So whose the X Factor? The obvious.

Jae Crowder.

A couple of our big wins against WVU and Cuse were thanks to Crowder being THE BEAST. He has been slumping lately but this is the game we need him. If Jae gets involved and its some outside shots while also being good down low and on the glass and makes his Fts I think we should win this game

Is it agreed that this game could be as Jae goes, we go?

So does Buzz continue with his hypocrisy and start Erik Williams and then play him 5 minutes?

[willie warrior]

It all comes down to DJO draining shots...when DJO playes well..we win..against almost anyone.  If Crowder and DJO are both going - we are virtually unbeatable.

Jimmy B is always going to be solid, if not spectacular.

I really think the guys are going to play really well...

Absolutely agree that DJO and Crowder must come to play. DJO must stroke the three well.

[MUMac]

So does Buzz continue with his hypocrisy and start Erik Williams and then play him 5 minutes?

So, Al was a hypocrite in your eyes, right?

[BM1090]

So does Buzz continue with his hypocrisy and start Erik Williams and then play him 5 minutes?

In what way is it hypocrisy? He said the best 5 players in practice will start. He said nothing about how much they would play

[Dawson Rental]

In what way is it hypocrisy? He said the best 5 players in practice will start. He said nothing about how much they would play

So, you're saying that Buzz is deliberately limiting the minutes of one of his best players to five a game?  You must be a big Buzz fan.

[BM1090]

So, you're saying that Buzz is deliberately limiting the minutes of one of his best players to five a game?  You must be a big Buzz fan.

No. I'm not saying I agree with it, but he never said he would start the best players. He said he would start the guys who played the best in practice leading up to the game.

Regardless of who plays the best in practice, that doesn't mean that they are the best player. I think he should just keep the lineup consistent in one way or another, but there is no hypocrisy in his actions

[esotericmindguy]

It's ridiculous when he starts williams both halves and doesn't play him the rest of the game. Not sure what he's trying to accomplish with that.

As for those who said the X factor will be Buycks or Blue you need to review tape. They both have been largely worthless the last month and a half. and that includes the defensive end.

It's all about DJO, when he's hitting MU is a completely different team. In MU's conference losses DJO is 17-56 (30%); in MU's wins he's 27-58 (47%) including an 0-7 in the UCONN game. So in 8 of MU's 9 conference wins DJO was 27 of 51 from 3, or 53%.

[Blackhat]

Buycks is our best three point shooter at 41% (DJO at 36%), so he is an x factor if Xavier essentially plays a zone.

 He has proven he can do it in the past but you're right he has faded down the stretch like Jae.

Buycks has shot 52% from three in our BE wins.

[NCMUFan]

The X Factor is Buzz himself.  If he gets out coached we lose.  If he has a good game plan and instills that in the players we win.  Also, 40 minutes is the X factor.  Can't play for only 39 minutes.