MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: Cheeks on March 20, 2019, 12:36:38 AM
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The tournament expanded in 1985, and in those 34 years since....only 4 times has the #1 team in the AP rankings won the tournament. So much for the "best" team wins. That's 12% of the time.
Crapshoot, baby!
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The tournament expanded in 1985, and in those 34 years since....only 4 times has the #1 team in the AP rankings won the tournament. So much for the "best" team wins. That's 12% of the time.
Crapshoot, baby!
So the "best" team is the one rated #1 in the AP poll? LOL. Did anyone not related to Tom Crean really think IU was better than Louisville the year the Hoosiers were routed in the S16 game by Syracuse? I sure didn't. Won a boatload on the Cardinals that year.
#1 seeds have actually dominated, winning something like 18 of the last 25 titles. not exactly the distribution one would expect in a crapshoot - baby.
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So the "best" team is the one rated #1 in the AP poll? LOL. Did anyone not related to Tom Crean really think IU was better than Louisville the year the Hoosiers were routed in the S16 game by Syracuse? I sure didn't. Won a boatload on the Cardinals that year.
#1 seeds have actually dominated, winning something like 18 of the last 25 titles. not exactly the distribution one would expect in a crapshoot - baby.
I just checked the record books and Louisville didn't win a single game that year much less the NC. ;)
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I just checked the record books and Louisville didn't win a single game that year much less the NC. ;)
I'm sure Lenny did the right thing and returned his winnings to the bookie. ;D
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1-seeds have won the tournament 21/34 times. That's 61.8% of the time. Teams on the top 3 lines have won 30/34 times, or 88.2% of the time. If it was a true crapshoot, I'd think there would be a more even distribution to the lower lines.
While anything can happen, it's not a total crapshoot. The best teams still generally win.
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The tournament expanded in 1985, and in those 34 years since....only 4 times has the #1 team in the AP rankings won the tournament. So much for the "best" team wins. That's 12% of the time.
Crapshoot, baby!
So, sportswriters don’t know tucky, aina?
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Woo-Hoo - well I'm ready to start 3 weeks where you can draw no conclusions about your team, coach or the legacy of a program. Gain no excitement or disappointment from an early exit or deep run. Get no exposure or pride for your university. In fact I hear that Burton Malkiel is writing a new book -- "A Random Walk In March".
I am drinking the Kool-aid & pumped to not be excited.
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If Crean was better in March, would we have the “crapshoot” narrative? I think not. It’s just the perfect way to justify his postseason failures.
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Woo-Hoo - well I'm ready to start 3 weeks where you can draw no conclusions about your team, coach or the legacy of a program. Gain no excitement or disappointment from an early exit or deep run. Get no exposure or pride for your university. In fact I hear that Burton Malkiel is writing a new book -- "A Random Walk In March".
I am drinking the Kool-aid & pumped to not be excited.
It's not a Random Walk, just ask Pete and Jon.
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Buzz’s personal organ said it so well a few years ago
https://twitter.com/GaryParrishCBS/status/535296428516851714?s=20
Who is the “best” team...who knows. Is it #1 one team in the poll based on prestigious journalists? Is it number 1 in a power rating? Is it the overall number 1 seed? Choose whichever you wish, because of the nature of the event someone othe4 than the best wins more often than any other major sporting event in this country.
Crapshoot
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Buzz’s personal organ said it so well a few years ago
https://twitter.com/GaryParrishCBS/status/535296428516851714?s=20
Who is the “best” team...who knows. Is it #1 one team in the poll based on prestigious journalists? Is it number 1 in a power rating? Is it the overall number 1 seed? Choose whichever you wish, because of the nature of the event someone othe4 than the best wins more often than any other major sporting event in this country.
Crapshoot
So you and Buzz's personal organ have something in common. Who would have thunk it?
A crapshoot where a lot of numbers never come up and some come up repeatedly is hardly blind luck. Let me pick 4 teams every year and give you 64. You'll be out of money before you get your first social security check. Upsets? Sure. But cream rises. Luck plays a part, sure. But crapshoot? LOL.
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Buzz’s personal organ said it so well a few years ago
https://twitter.com/GaryParrishCBS/status/535296428516851714?s=20
Who is the “best” team...who knows. Is it #1 one team in the poll based on prestigious journalists? Is it number 1 in a power rating? Is it the overall number 1 seed? Choose whichever you wish, because of the nature of the event someone othe4 than the best wins more often than any other major sporting event in this country.
Crapshoot
Really don't care.
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1-seeds have won the tournament 21/34 times. That's 61.8% of the time. Teams on the top 3 lines have won 30/34 times, or 88.2% of the time. If it was a true crapshoot, I'd think there would be a more even distribution to the lower lines.
While anything can happen, it's not a total crapshoot. The best teams still generally win.
The top 4 teams (seeds 1 & 2 in each conference) in the NBA, using the same logic, have won the NBA title 29 times in those 34 years. Top 3 "lines" for NBA, have won it 33 of 34 times.
Best teams almost ALWAYS wins in the NBA, much different in the NCAA tournament.
Crapshoot.
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Really don't care.
Only enough to comment
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macro v. micro
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Cheeks is rather full of crapshoot
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So, sportswriters don’t know tucky, aina?
You said it, not me. ;)
I'm guessing if we looked at Kenpom.com #1 or Sagarin #1 prior to tournament happening....it would also show how often the "best" team based not on human sportswriters, but on pure data would also show how often they don't win the whole thing.
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Kenpom.com only goes to 2002
Their final #1 pre tourney for the last 17 years, only two teams they deemed the best team actually won the NCAA title...11.7647%. The sports writers, 11.7647%, over 34 years.
IDENTICAL
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The top 4 teams (seeds 1 & 2 in each conference) in the NBA, using the same logic, have won the NBA title 29 times in those 34 years. Top 3 "lines" for NBA, have won it 33 of 34 times.
Best teams almost ALWAYS wins in the NBA, much different in the NCAA tournament.
Crapshoot.
30/34 or 33/34 are both "almost ALWAYS" enough for me. Neither a crapshoot.
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Sagarin has been pretty good with his rankings.
Where the winners ranked prior to tourney:
2018 1 Villanova
2017 3 North Carolina
2016 5 Villanova
2015 5 Duke
2014 23 UConn
2013 1 Louisville
2012 1 Kentucky
2011 15 UConn
2010 2 Duke
2009 1 North Carolina
2008 2 Kansas
2007 3 Florida
2006 8 Florida
2005 2 North Carolina
2004 7 UConn
2003 12 Syracuse
4 of 16 champions were #1
11 of 16 were top 5
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The top 4 teams (seeds 1 & 2 in each conference) in the NBA, using the same logic, have won the NBA title 29 times in those 34 years. Top 3 "lines" for NBA, have won it 33 of 34 times.
Best teams almost ALWAYS wins in the NBA, much different in the NCAA tournament.
Crapshoot.
16 teams make the NBA playoffs. So the top 4 teams comprise 25% of the entire field. That is the same as if you included the top 4 seed lines in the NCAA. In 31/34 years seeds 4 or higher won the NCAA tournament. That is higher rates than the NBA. So by your logic, you could conclude the NBA is more of a crapshoot.
The top 3 "lines" in the NBA comprise 38% of the field, and is the equivalence of the top 6 seed lines in the NCAA tournament. In 32/34 years the tournament was won by teams ranked 6 or better.
So, statistically speaking, if the NCAA is a crap shoot, so is the NBA.
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30/34 or 33/34 are both "almost ALWAYS" enough for me. Neither a crapshoot.
4 of 34 is a crapshoot.
2 of 17 is a crapshoot
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16 teams make the NBA playoffs. So the top 4 teams comprise 25% of the entire field. That is the same as if you included the top 4 seed lines in the NCAA. In 31/34 years seeds 4 or higher won the NCAA tournament. That is higher rates than the NBA. So by your logic, you could conclude the NBA is more of a crapshoot.
The top 3 "lines" in the NBA comprise 38% of the field, and is the equivalence of the top 6 seed lines in the NCAA tournament. In 32/34 years the tournament was won by teams ranked 6 or better.
So, statistically speaking, if the NCAA is a crap shoot, so is the NBA.
That's one way to look at it, but I'm talking about the identified best teams. Going into the NCAA tournament there is an overall #1 seed, the committee said that is the best team. There is also the #1 ranked team in the AP Poll, which may or may not be the overall #1 seed. Then there are the power rankings. Point is, various metrics that say this is the best team.
In the NBA, there is also power rankings, odds, and place of finish that are metrics of who the best team is, certainly the best by each conference. Because of the multi-game series, the best team has a much much more likely outcome to be standing with the championship in the end than the NCAA winner. I don't agree at all that they are in the same descriptor and most folks that follow sports wouldn't either.
The best team in the NBA usually wins the NBA title. The best team going into the NCAA tournament, usually does NOT win the championship.
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The Jeopardy question is: How many times have Chico's had relations (those kind)?
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The Jeopardy question is: How many times have Chico's had relations (those kind)?
At least twice, and got lucky both times to have kids.
(https://media.giphy.com/media/q0z6DObgoM0SI/giphy.gif)
With another overall #1 seed and #1 ranked team going down, it is now 4 times in 35 years.