MLB hot stove discussion 2018/19 off season

[buckchuckler]

I agree on #1 with a caveat that I think there's still an outside possibly that one team blows modern thinking out of the water. I think both of them set new records in AAV, but I don't see a contract > 10 years. If one gets it, it's Machado, who has been more durable and consistent. Granted, these guys are just entering their physical prime, so this is very different than when the Angels signed Pujols, who was already over 30.

1 Win (read, one WAR) is valued at - give or take - about $10M (https://bit.ly/2sCVBs3). So by signing Harper at this value, you're banking on 42 WAR over the lifetime of that deal. Harper to date has produced an average of 3.85 WAR/year (albeit in a couple injury shortened seasons). So over the lifetime, of this deal, he'd make it up if he continued at this pace. The question is whether teams are willing to bet on that as he enters his age 37, 38, 39, 40 seasons. I don't think that's reasonable to expect at his position. The other way I suppose teams couldconvince themselves into this contract is if they think they can get SO much value out of these guys in the first decade of their deals that they will absorb and tolerate less production on the last couple.

Separately, I don't know that I agree on #2 - star relievers are making $10M/year, so if you can have a SP that you put into a position to succeed, you might get that value back considering more innings. I think teams will be more judicious in general around overpaying for starters given the horrors that were the 2017 SP market, but teams will still pay good (not great) value if they think they can better utilize a guy like Gio (for the record, no one should pay Gio $12M/year)

Harper just turned 26.  A 10 year deal makes the final years of his contract 34,35,36.  He seems, likely at least to me, to still be a productive player.  He is also, statistically, just about to enter his prime.  It wouldn't be surprising at all to see him put up seasons of exceeding that 3.85 number by a decent margin.

I was happy to hear rumblings today that the White Sox are going to be aggressive after both Harper and Machado (an either or, not both at least that was my impression).  Not that they will get either, but they have very limited payroll commitments and could certainly snag one of them.  I'd be happy with either, but if it were my money, I'd prefer Harper.

[Jockey]

Discuss: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2019.html

My initial reactions:

1. Harper at $420M/14 from the Dodgers and Machado at $390/13 from the Phillies. I don't often pretend to know more than the experts, but this will not happen. Last year was the beginning of a trend, not an anomaly. I don't put either player at a greater than 50% chance to get 10+ years. (caveat - if there are 3 mutual options or opt outs over the life of a deal, you could make it 100 years if you want because the term becomes kind of meaningless).

I think you are spot on. I agree it will not happen. Teams do not want to be saddled with any more Pujols-type deals. Contracts are going to reflect what teams feels a player will be worth over the life of the contract rather than pay them for what they have already done as has been for the last few decades.

I'm also guessing that this will cause more friction between the Union and the owners. It's gonna be very tough getting a new labor deal in a couple years when the contract is up - partly because of the new way salaries will be given over the next two years. I think the Union just hired a couple of really good labor lawyers just in the last week or two.

[GB Warrior]

Harper just turned 26.  A 10 year deal makes the final years of his contract 34,35,36.  He seems, likely at least to me, to still be a productive player.  He is also, statistically, just about to enter his prime.  It wouldn't be surprising at all to see him put up seasons of exceeding that 3.85 number by a decent margin.

I was happy to hear rumblings today that the White Sox are going to be aggressive after both Harper and Machado (an either or, not both at least that was my impression).  Not that they will get either, but they have very limited payroll commitments and could certainly snag one of them.  I'd be happy with either, but if it were my money, I'd prefer Harper.

To clarify, I was referring to what seasons he'd be in under a 14 year contract. And I stand by those years not being worth it even if the player outpaces his AAV in the early years. If I had to choose, I'd choose the above average left infielder, royal dickhead that he is.

[buckchuckler]

To clarify, I was referring to what seasons he'd be in under a 14 year contract. And I stand by those years not being worth it even if the player outpaces his AAV in the early years. If I had to choose, I'd choose the above average left infielder, royal dickhead that he is.

Ah, my fault entirely.  I missed the years. 

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Don't know why more teams don't follow the Bobby Bonilla model, aina?

[DegenerateDish]

I’m not breaking any news here, but for two years I had been mentioning that I’ve heard from people with the Sox that they will be all in on Machado. I saw Rosenthal mention the Sox and Machado today as well. They may not get him, but I have heard from reliable people that they will not be outbid.

[DegenerateDish]

As a Sox fan, I'm intrigued by the Mariners reported fire sale. Paxton and Haniger would be expensive gets (probably at least Cease, Robert, Madrigal) in terms of prospects, but cash wise they'd still have tons of flexibility.

If the Sox could get a 2020 rotation that is anchored by Paxton, Rodon, and Kopech, and one of Hansen/Dunning pan out, and Gioloto or Lopez is your fifth starter, that would work.

An outfield with Hangier and Jimenez would work for me as well. If somehow they could sign Machado, and then in the draft luck into Rutschman at 3...sign me up.

[Vander Blue Man Group]

As a Sox fan, I'm intrigued by the Mariners reported fire sale. Paxton and Haniger would be expensive gets (probably at least Cease, Robert, Madrigal) in terms of prospects, but cash wise they'd still have tons of flexibility.

If the Sox could get a 2020 rotation that is anchored by Paxton, Rodon, and Kopech, and one of Hansen/Dunning pan out, and Gioloto or Lopez is your fifth starter, that would work.

An outfield with Hangier and Jimenez would work for me as well. If somehow they could sign Machado, and then in the draft luck into Rutschman at 3...sign me up.

Haniger probably isn't going anywhere considering is he is under control for 5 more years.  Does it make sense to trade prospect capital for Paxton when he's a free agent in two years considering the Sox aren't likely to be competitive in 2019?

And how much over the highest offer for Machado would the Sox have to go to sign him?  Anything could happen but it's extremely unlikely from my perspective. 

[Pakuni]

As a Sox fan, I'm intrigued by the Mariners reported fire sale. Paxton and Haniger would be expensive gets (probably at least Cease, Robert, Madrigal) in terms of prospects, but cash wise they'd still have tons of flexibility.

If the Sox could get a 2020 rotation that is anchored by Paxton, Rodon, and Kopech, and one of Hansen/Dunning pan out, and Gioloto or Lopez is your fifth starter, that would work.

An outfield with Hangier and Jimenez would work for me as well. If somehow they could sign Machado, and then in the draft luck into Rutschman at 3...sign me up.

As a Sox fan, giving up Madrigal, Cease and Robert for Haniger and Paxton would make me want to jump off the upper deck of the Cell.
Haniger has had one solid MLB season - and not until he turned 27 - plays replacement-level defense and strikes out too often (not exactly what the Sox need). And except for one excellent season, Paxton has basically been no better than a middle-of-the-rotation guy.

You do not give up three top 50 prospects for that, IMO. Arguably, the Red Sox gave up less for Chris Sale than what the White Sox would be giving up here.

[DegenerateDish]

As a Sox fan, giving up Madrigal, Cease and Robert for Haniger and Paxton would make me want to jump off the upper deck of the Cell.
Haniger has had one solid MLB season - and not until he turned 27 - plays replacement-level defense and strikes out too often (not exactly what the Sox need). And except for one excellent season, Paxton has basically been no better than a middle-of-the-rotation guy.

You do not give up three top 50 prospects for that, IMO. Arguably, the Red Sox gave up less for Chris Sale than what the White Sox would be giving up here.

In my scenario, they're giving up more because they'd be getting Haniger and Paxton. You're also getting long term cost control with Haniger, and you're in good shape with Paxton's contract through the rest of his prime. Whether you think Haniger or Paxton are quality is worthy of discussion, but I think if you're going to sell high on Robert/Madrigal, this is the time to do so. I wouldn't want to part with Cease, but he'd be a cost of doing business guy.

I think Hahn is going to trade some prospects for either a proven outfielder or starter in the next few weeks. Knowing he's picking third in June and will have high picks in every round would help offset any moving of prospects this winter.

[Pakuni]

In my scenario, they're giving up more because they'd be getting Haniger and Paxton. You're also getting long term cost control with Haniger, and you're in good shape with Paxton's contract through the rest of his prime. Whether you think Haniger or Paxton are quality is worthy of discussion, but I think if you're going to sell high on Robert/Madrigal, this is the time to do so. I wouldn't want to part with Cease, but he'd be a cost of doing business guy.

I think Hahn is going to trade some prospects for either a proven outfielder or starter in the next few weeks. Knowing he's picking third in June and will have high picks in every round would help offset any moving of prospects this winter.

Right, but they already have long(er)-term cost control over Robert, Madrigal and Cease, so I don't see a great upside in getting cost control over Haniger, a guy who's already halfway through his baseball prime years. What good is cost control over a guy who, history suggests, is unlikely to improve as a player. And again, this is a guy who's had one good MLB season. . Maybe Haniger is a late bloomer. But there's just as much chance he's a one-year wonder. After all, we're talking about a guy who slashed .289/.370/.492 in six minor-league seasons. Solid, but not portending of stardom, especially considering he was mostly playing against younger competition.

I guess my point is I just don't see Haniger and Paxton as the kind of franchise-changing players you sell the farm for. And why sell Robert and Madrigal at all? Obviously potential is a loaded word, but all three guys have long-term all-star potential.

[DegenerateDish]

Right, but they already have long(er)-term cost control over Robert, Madrigal and Cease, so I don't see a great upside in getting cost control over Haniger, a guy who's already halfway through his baseball prime years. What good is cost control over a guy who, history suggests, is unlikely to improve as a player. And again, this is a guy who's had one good MLB season. . Maybe Haniger is a late bloomer. But there's just as much chance he's a one-year wonder. After all, we're talking about a guy who slashed .289/.370/.492 in six minor-league seasons. Solid, but not portending of stardom, especially considering he was mostly playing against younger competition.

I guess my point is I just don't see Haniger and Paxton as the kind of franchise-changing players you sell the farm for. And why sell Robert and Madrigal at all? Obviously potential is a loaded word, but all three guys have long-term all-star potential.

All reasonable and fair points, no argument here. You could very well be right on, and I didn't want to wrongly compare Haniger to Yelich, but I can see the Sox doing something like what the Brewers did last offseason. I just don't know who that guy(s) would be, and when I was reading about the M's possible firesale, that's who initially caught my eye. Very fair assessment though, made me re-consider a bit.

[Pakuni]

All reasonable and fair points, no argument here. You could very well be right on, and I didn't want to wrongly compare Haniger to Yelich, but I can see the Sox doing something like what the Brewers did last offseason. I just don't know who that guy(s) would be, and when I was reading about the M's possible firesale, that's who initially caught my eye. Very fair assessment though, made me re-consider a bit.

FWIW, I agree that Hahn will (and should!) add some established talent this offseason, and may give up some prospects to do it. I just don't see it being any of their top 7-8 guys.
The nice thing is that the Sox system is so deep that their 9-12 prospects (guys like Hansen, Adolfo, Basabe, Gonzalez) would be top 5 guys in a lot of systems.

Rutschman vs Langeliers will be interesting to watch in the spring.

[DegenerateDish]

FWIW, I agree that Hahn will (and should!) add some established talent this offseason, and may give up some prospects to do it. I just don't see it being any of their top 7-8 guys.
The nice thing is that the Sox system is so deep that their 9-12 prospects (guys like Hansen, Adolfo, Basabe, Gonzalez) would be top 5 guys in a lot of systems.

Rutschman vs Langeliers will be interesting to watch in the spring.

It's funny, because 3 of the guys you mention I irrationally high hopes for in Hansen, Adolfo, and Basabe. I admittedly have only read up on Langeliers, but when Madrigal was in the CWS, I fell in love watching Rutschman, he's a DUDE in my opinion, the kind of guy who just looks like he can lead and carry a team in a big series. Collins then maybe can become a DH and catch 30-40 games a year (if they go with either Rutschman or Langeliers).

[buckchuckler]

As a Sox fan, I'm intrigued by the Mariners reported fire sale. Paxton and Haniger would be expensive gets (probably at least Cease, Robert, Madrigal) in terms of prospects, but cash wise they'd still have tons of flexibility.

If the Sox could get a 2020 rotation that is anchored by Paxton, Rodon, and Kopech, and one of Hansen/Dunning pan out, and Gioloto or Lopez is your fifth starter, that would work.

An outfield with Hangier and Jimenez would work for me as well. If somehow they could sign Machado, and then in the draft luck into Rutschman at 3...sign me up.

I disagree with pretty much everything here.  Paxton has never been healthy (and 2 years of control left).  His stuff is unquestionable, but his career high in innings is 160.  That just seems like way to much to give up.  Robert is tearing up the AFL (the premier prospect league) to the tune of about .370.  Cease has ace potential and will probably be with the Sox at some point next season if all goes well.  Haniger was great last year, and I'm a big fan, but I think that would be just too much.  He is also a guy that the M's are saying they are probably not going to move (along with Diaz).

They could likely get Greinke for a couple 10-20 range prospects and half his deal.  Arizona seems basically desperate to move that deal.  Any one of those guys you mentioned could headline a deal for Kluber (Cleveland is reportedly willing to shop him or Carrasco). 

The Sox should have money to spend right not.  Their payroll right now for next year is somewhere around 54 depending on some arbitration.  The middle of the pack last year was around 140.  The Sox can just use money to acquire some guys.  Maybe Machado, Harper, maybe just use it to get Greinke.  Giving up Robert, Madrigal and Cease would be their 3-4-5 prospects, with 2 (Kopech) being down for a year.  That trade would send at least 2 guys with All Star potential.  Not that they will be, but that is high end prospect talent.  I don't think they should be clearing out the top levels of their farm system at this point.

I am also not a fan of Rutschman.  Catchers high in the draft scare me.  It is just such a demanding position that it saps guys of their skills and wears them down.  It is certainly too early to say, but I am very skeptical to say the least. 

[MUBurrow]

A lot of pitching looks to be on the market. I think a trade deadline deal for Paxton, either this year or next, likely will make more sense than a winter meetings deal for both the M's and whoever ends up buying. To buck's point, his stuff rocks but he's never healthy. If I'm a GM, I would rather pay $5/start over 50 games plus playoffs to not have to worry about injury risk over a full season than $3/start over a full 162.

[buckchuckler]

Bill James seems to have jumped the shark.

[GB Warrior]

Bill James seems to have jumped the shark.

Guilty of saying the quiet parts out loud. Not everyone in MLB management thinks this way, but I'd bet that there are more that think the MLB is a machine that will survive whatever labor issues they face.

As other labor stoppages in sports have shown, he's wrong.

[Jockey]

Bill James seems to have jumped the shark.

His place in baseball history as one of the pioneering sabermetricians is secure.

However, he may have outlived his usefulness.

[DegenerateDish]

Bryce Harper
 

[buckchuckler]

Guilty of saying the quiet parts out loud. Not everyone in MLB management thinks this way, but I'd bet that there are more that think the MLB is a machine that will survive whatever labor issues they face.

As other labor stoppages in sports have shown, he's wrong.

Maybe I interpreted it wrong, could he just have been finally giving beer vendors their due?   

[buckchuckler]

Bryce Harper
 

#LOVE

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Bryce Harper
 

#LOVE

Feel free to rub it in my face if you sign him but for now....

[buckchuckler]

Feel free to rub it in my face if you sign him but for now....

The Sox have a lot of money to offer.  Great players sign with bad teams all the time. 

Lester to the cubs.
Cano to the M's
Arod to the Rangers. 

All these teams were at least 20 games under the season before signing those guys.

Obviously the odds are against it happening, but if they offer the most money, it likely won't matter.  Also they have been connected to Nelson Cruz and Patrick Corbin.  They could add 80 million to their payroll this offseason and be about average.

Honestly,  I'm thrilled they are pursuing him like this whether they end up getting him or not.  I like the front office being aggressive.

And nice use of Jordan as apparently the Jordan statue was donning a Harper jersey today.

[🏀]

I hope the Cubs and the Sox pass on Harper. He's not worth it.

I'd pay $400 million over 10 years for Trout.

Harper has played 7 full seasons at this point. He's a 3-5 win player (outside of 2015). In 7 years, Trout has been 9+ WAR except for one year at 8.3 and last year's 7 win season due to injury.

The Stanton contract is a realistic comp for Harper.