Reality check with "elite" performances

[Dr. Blackheart]

You know this isn't true. In the final 1:10, Davidson shot 75% from the line, 100% from the floor, & scored 1.25 ppp with 1 turnover. It wasn't Davidson peeing on themselves at all, it was Marquette's shooting reverting to the statistical norm.

Err...well...ugh...it's a crapshoot then.  That's the ticket.

[Lennys Tap]

You know this isn't true. In the final 1:10, Davidson shot 75% from the line, 100% from the floor, & scored 1.25 ppp with 1 turnover. It wasn't Davidson peeing on themselves at all, it was Marquette's shooting reverting to the statistical norm.

+1000 Brew. One of Chico's biggest lies. Greatest comeback (because it was on the big stage) in MU history. 3 straight 3s capped by Vander's drive overcomes a Davidson team who played BETTER down the stretch than is their norm. Proves Chico's hatred of Buzz, his players and all things Marquette during that era beyond any doubt.

[tower912]

You know this isn't true. In the final 1:10, Davidson shot 75% from the line, 100% from the floor, & scored 1.25 ppp with 1 turnover. It wasn't Davidson peeing on themselves at all, it was Marquette's shooting reverting to the statistical norm.

Exactly.  Buzz's team took it.  Davidson didn't give it.

[Goose]

Davidson win was big time comeback. One of my favorite modern day era memories. That team knew how to win and delivered some high quality entertainment to the MU faithful. Anyone that says otherwise, is simply trying to be different.

[GOO]

Marcus92 posted this in another thread, and I think it should help add a lot of perspective to peoples expectations:

I think everyone here wants the same thing. Namely, Marquette competing for and winning a second national title.

So is Wojo the right coach to get us there?

What winning coaches look like
NCAA appearances and high seeds aren't the end goal. But they are a key measure of progress and success along the way. It's worth considering that only 8 current Division I head coaches have won a national title:

Mike Krzyzewski (1991, 1992, 2001, 2010, 2015)
Roy Williams (2005, 2009, 2017)
Jay Wright (2016, 2018)
Jim Boeheim (2003)
John Calipari (2012)
Tom Izzo (2000)
Bill Self (2008)
Tubby Smith (1998)

On average, they won their first national championship in their 16th season as a head coach. It took Boeheim 27 years. Wright 22 years. Calipari 20 years. And all of them except Williams have had first-round exits from the NCAA tournament. Jay Wright, in fact, has lost in the first round 5 times. What they had in common up to that point was making the tournament often, and earning high seeds.

What winning programs look like
Here are the 11 Division I programs that have earned NCAA bids each of the past 3 seasons, while averaging better than a 5 seed:

North Carolina - 2017 (1 seed), 2018 (2), 2019 (1)
Duke - 2017 (2), 2018 (2), 2019 (1)
Gonzaga - 2017 (1), 2018 (4), 2019 (1)
Kansas - 2017 (1), 2018 (1), 2019 (4)
Virginia - 2017 (5), 2018 (1), 2019 (1)
Villanova - 2017 (1), 2018 (1), 2019 (6)
Kentucky - 2017 (2), 2018 (5), 2019 (2)
Purdue - 2017 (4), 2018 (2), 2019 (3)
Michigan - 2017 (7), 2018 (3), 2019 (2)
Florida St. - 2017 (3), 2018 (9), 2019 (4)
Michigan St. - 2017 (9), 2018 (3), 2019 (2)

Notice anything? Williams at NC, Coach K at Duke, Self at Kansas, Wright at Nova, Calipari at UK, Izzo at MSU. Six of the 8 coaches who've won a national title are on this list. What that tells me is NCAA appearances and seeding count. (And that Mark Few and Tony Bennett are the most likely candidates to celebrate their first national title).

What's that got to do with Wojo?
Obviously, MU isn't there yet. And honestly, chances are Wojo won't be a Hall of Fame coach like Coach K. However...

When you look at the records of successful coaches early in their careers -- not just one individual coach, but a broad cross-spectrum of them -- Wojo's first 5 seasons compare favorably. You might believe he should have accomplished more. But history suggests that not many coaches do.

To the argument about winning zero NCAA games, I call bulls**t. Hugely disappointing? Yes. Meaningful? Not likely. No statistician would call 2 NCAA games anything close to a reliable data set. It's 2 data points. How can you judge anything based on that, compared to a season's worth of games? With almost all of this team coming back, the bad loss to Murray State could motivate them even more for next season.

I believe Marquette isn't far from joining the ranks of those 11 programs listed above. Like many here, I have big concerns about how the season ended. But MU has still appeared in 2 of the past 3 NCAA tournaments and earned a better seed each time. If that progress continues next season (winning the Big East and earning a 3 seed or better), I'll feel even more confident that we're on the right path.

Keep Wojo.

[tower912]

Only one person consistently makes that argument.

[jsglow]

Davidson is still wiping the pee off their leg, but I am happy they pissed all over themselves to give us that one.

For the unteenth time, down the stretch in crunch time they missed one free throw and had one critical turnover.  Their final possessions in the last minute and a half were as follows:

1) Split a pair of free throws.
2) Executed a nice pick and roll for a layup.
3) Made a pair of free throws.
4) Turned ball over on the sideline under full court pressure.
5) Unsuccessful half court inbound with one second.

So that's 5 total points in what was really 4 possessions, a 1.25PPP.  NO team in college basketball scored at that pace for all of 2018-19.

Marquette's possessions:

1) Jamil three from left wing.
2) Vander HIGHLY contested three from right wing.
3) Jamil  three from right wing.
4) Vander driving layup for the win.

An incredible ELEVEN points in 4 possessions with credible D played each time.

So just stop with the revisionist history.  Marquette WON. Davidson certainly didn't 'leg pee'.  Consider the discussion closed forever. 

[Goose]

cheeks

Glow has called this debate over with. Thanks for contributing to the discussion, but Glow has concluded this discussion.

[tower912]

I stand with glow.

[jsglow]

cheeks

Glow has called this debate over with. Thanks for contributing to the discussion, but Glow has concluded this discussion.

Because I'm demonstrably correct.

[Goose]

glow

I agree with you. I stated that a couple of posts ago. I did not add case closed, but agree with you.

[jsglow]

glow

I agree with you. I stated that a couple of posts ago. I did not add case closed, but agree with you.

 

[Lennys Tap]

For the unteenth time, down the stretch in crunch time they missed one free throw and had one critical turnover.  Their final possessions in the last minute and a half were as follows:

1) Split a pair of free throws.
2) Executed a nice pick and roll for a layup.
3) Made a pair of free throws.
4) Turned ball over on the sideline under full court pressure.
5) Unsuccessful half court inbound with one second.

So that's 5 total points in what was really 4 possessions, a 1.25PPP.  NO team in college basketball scored at that pace for all of 2018-19.

Marquette's possessions:

1) Jamil three from left wing.
2) Vander HIGHLY contested three from right wing.
3) Jamil  three from right wing.
4) Vander driving layup for the win.

An incredible ELEVEN points in 4 possessions with credible D played each time.

So just stop with the revisionist history.  Marquette WON. Davidson certainly didn't 'leg pee'.  Consider the discussion closed forever.

Exactly.

But it also speaks to a larger point - that only someone with an anti MU bias could see it Chico's way.

[lawdog77]

I think this one next.  More recent, Painter said it just last week.

"But you all know, it's very fragile. The NCAA tournament's a crap shoot. You play on a neutral court and everybody's good."
-Matt Painter, 2019, Purdue Head Coach in the Sweet 16

source?

[Cheeks]

If you can’t take any joy in one of the most thrilling comebacks in Marquette history, you need to find a new team to root for.

Tremendous joy, was going crazy in my office when we won....doesn’t change how lucky we were.  Our head coach even said so.

[MUfan12]

Tremendous joy, was going crazy in my office when we won....doesn’t change how lucky we were.  Our head coach even said so.

Big difference between being lucky and opponent urinary incontinence.

[Goose]

cheeks

Our coach did not always tell the truth, right?

[Cheeks]

You know this isn't true. In the final 1:10, Davidson shot 75% from the line, 100% from the floor, & scored 1.25 ppp with 1 turnover. It wasn't Davidson peeing on themselves at all, it was Marquette's shooting reverting to the statistical norm.

I did’t realize the first 38 minutes no longer counted.  Number 1 free throw shooting team in the nation at 80%, shot 64% that game...probably due to our great ft defense.  🤪

They did essentially what Creighton did this year in coughing up the ball at the end, all they had to do is wait to get fouled.

Let’s put it this way, if Wisconsin lost that way, or Duke, or Notre Dame, or any Crean coached team....every damn person here would say it was a pissing choke job.  If MU pissed a game away like that in the NCAAs, the cries for firing would be epic.

But because we came out on top it was all us, none on Davidson choking?  Give me a break.

I’m thrilled we won, awesome to advance....but I’m not naive to recognize what a lucky gift that was. Sometimes it works out that way.

[jsglow]

I did’t realize the first 38 minutes no longer counted.  Number 1 free throw shooting team in the nation at 80%, shot 64% that game...probably due to our great ft defense.  🤪

They did essentially what Creighton did this year in coughing up the ball at the end, all they had to do is wait to get fouled.

Let’s put it this way, if Wisconsin lost that way, or Duke, or Notre Dame, or any Crean coached team....every damn person here would say it was a pissing choke job.  If MU pissed a game away like that in the NCAAs, the cries for firing would be epic.

But because we came out on top it was all us, none on Davidson choking?  Give me a break.

I’m thrilled we won, awesome to advance....but I’m not naive to recognize what a lucky gift that was. Sometimes it works out that way.

A good friend of mine has an expression for this.

'You lose.  Take off your clothes.'

Fits.

[Cheeks]

cheeks

Glow has called this debate over with. Thanks for contributing to the discussion, but Glow has concluded this discussion.

I noticed Glow missed a few key stats as well as simply how to play the game at the end.

Also noticed missing were the comments about how lucky we were as well as the quotes from media, etc, that we were lucky or Davidson choked.

Weird

Let me throw something out there, is it possible Davidson’s poor FT shooting throughout the game set us up for an opportunity? Is it possible we also made some amazing shots and took advantage of the opportunity?

Would our “heroics” have been possible if Davidson didn’t shoot free throws so poorly and coughed up the ball at the end when all they had to do was hold it and get fouled?  Takes two to tango for a loss like that, and Davidson was a very willing partner.

[Its DJOver]

Since this is now a "did they" or "didn't they" piss down their leg thread.  Tenn FT percentage on the season 76%.  Last night 50%.  Purdue FT percentage on the season 73%.  Last night 48%.  Is it possible for both teams to piss down their legs?  Either shoots their season average from the stripe and they win in regulation. 

[79Warrior]

I noticed Glow missed a few key stats as well as simply how to play the game at the end.

Also noticed missing were the comments about how lucky we were as well as the quotes from media, etc, that we were lucky or Davidson choked.

Weird

Let me throw something out there, is it possible Davidson’s poor FT shooting throughout the game set us up for an opportunity? Is it possible we also made some amazing shots and took advantage of the opportunity?

Would our “heroics” have been possible if Davidson didn’t shoot free throws so poorly and coughed up the ball at the end when all they had to do was hold it and get fouled?  Takes two to tango for a loss like that, and Davidson was a very willing partner.

does anyone really care anymore?

[brewcity77]

I did’t realize the first 38 minutes no longer counted.  Number 1 free throw shooting team in the nation at 80%, shot 64% that game...probably due to our great ft defense.  🤪

They did essentially what Creighton did this year in coughing up the ball at the end, all they had to do is wait to get fouled.

So your first contention is that they didn't pee themselves for the last 2 minutes, they peed themselves during the first 38 minutes that allowed them to build a 7-point lead with 1:10 to play?

Your second contention is that one single turnover is indicative of a team peeing all over themselves?

And from the other post, because Buzz said so, it must be true, making your third contention the unspoken but unquestionably implied "coach speak does not exist, every word spoken by a coach is the gospel truth."

You are wrong on this one. We all know it. You know it. You're just too stubborn to ever own when you are wrong. Marquette scored an insane 2.75 ppp over the final 1:10 of that game. That's more than double any offense in modern recorded history has done for a season. They got blisteringly hot, though in the process didn't even improve to the mean in terms of shooting (MU still shot below their season averages in FG%, 3PFG%, 2PFG%, & eFG% despite the hot finish).

Teams do choke. Teams that score 1.25 ppp are not examples of that. Especially when their opponents are in the process of scoring 2.75 ppp in the same stretch.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

So your first contention is that they didn't pee themselves for the last 2 minutes, they peed themselves during the first 38 minutes that allowed them to build a 7-point lead with 1:10 to play?

Your second contention is that one single turnover is indicative of a team peeing all over themselves?

And from the other post, because Buzz said so, it must be true, making your third contention the unspoken but unquestionably implied "coach speak does not exist, every word spoken by a coach is the gospel truth."

You are wrong on this one. We all know it. You know it. You're just too stubborn to ever own when you are wrong. Marquette scored an insane 2.75 ppp over the final 1:10 of that game. That's more than double any offense in modern recorded history has done for a season. They got blisteringly hot, though in the process didn't even improve to the mean in terms of shooting (MU still shot below their season averages in FG%, 3PFG%, 2PFG%, & eFG% despite the hot finish).

Teams do choke. Teams that score 1.25 ppp are not examples of that. Especially when their opponents are in the process of scoring 2.75 ppp in the same stretch.

Not only that, but all three of Marquette's three point shots at the end were well defended. 

[MarquetteFan94]

Lou Carnesecca, Brad Stevens, Pete Carill, Eddie Sutton, Majerus, Huggins...

Who would take  Jim Harrick, Tubby Smith, Joe B Hall, or Kevin Ollie over any of those guys??

You completely missed the point.  Btw, you forgot Steve Fisher.

Your all-time elite list is also pretty expansive.  I’m talking about the Mt. Rushmore of coaches (people will have different opinions):

Coach K
John Wooden
Dean Smith
Roy Williams
Bobby Knight

Maybe now you get the idea?  Yes, they’ve all had nice regular season records, but they’re also reknowned for national championships.

The others you list as all-time greats are tier 2 at best.