MLB playoff thoughts.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

I'm a Cubs fan and I hope Fielder stays in Milwaukee. That's a fun team to watch. If they can get some people in the outfield and on the left side of the infield who can catch the ball they can repeat as division champs. I thought Hart was horrendous the entire series. They need an upgrade there. Third base is a no-brainer. How about Aramis Ramirez for you guys? He's a free agent.

[ringout]

Brewers will be better off replacing Prince with Moneyball guys.  Upgrade the defense, and get adequate bats.  There are  guys who would play for a winner.  HAven't done enough research to know who exactly, yet.

Love Prince, love what he did with the Brewers, wish he was signable, but with Boras as agent, fuhgetaboutit.  It is not the end of the world.  A Lyle Overbay type guy, along with upgrades at SS, 3B, CF will improve the team.

[🏀]

Brewers will be better off replacing Prince with Moneyball guys.  Upgrade the defense, and get adequate bats.  There are  guys who would play for a winner.  HAven't done enough research to know who exactly, yet.

If they were 'Moneyball' guys they wouldn't be upgrading your defense.

[Benny B]

He's a top 2 free agent this winter, behind only arguably the best hitter ever to play baseball.

Pujols is the #1 FA in 2012, without a doubt.  He may leave St. Louis, he may not.  But bear in mind while Prince is the youngest and second most productive of the 2012 1B FA class, let's face it... there are still questions about his weight and his defense circling around, and most teams may be more inclined to take a flyer on a Papi or Thome-type for a year rather than commit eight years to Fielder.

That said, the big money is going to chase Jose Reyes and C.J. Wilson.  CC Sabathia is going to opt-out only to resign with the Yankees, but rumors are circling that Texas may make a strong push for CC, especially if Wilson doesn't re-sign.  Further, there are more teams that need closers than those that need 1B, and so Valverde and K-Rod might even be a higher priority than Fielder on teams' hot stove lists.

One other factor to keep in mind is that Fielder probably won't sign anywhere until Pujols "sets the market."  If Pujols takes his time, the big money elsewhere may already be spent by the time he inks his contract, which would leave Fielder out in the cold.

Although he might be as high as #2 or #3, Fielder may be as low as the #7 free agent on the market this year.  I'll stick to my opinion that he's #4 behind Pujols, Reyes, and Wilson/Sabathia.

I can only tell you for your own sake that you are out of your mind if you think anything close to this is going to happen, particularly if you are largely basing your theory on a bad week against the Cardinals. The cahnaces of Prince signing a one-year contract with the Brewers are roughly the same as me signing a one-year contract with the Brewers.

See above... a bad week against the Cardinals is a mere afterthought when you consider the supply/demand aspects of Fielders next contract.

The Brewers are undoubtedly going to offer arbitration... it's a high-risk, high-reward move, but don't be surprised if Fielder accepts and Boras negotiates the arbitration clause out in a one-year deal laden with incentives to bring the thing over $20M (which is probably more than he'd make in the first year of an eight-year deal any way).  It may seem like a long-shot, but you'd be out of your own mind to outright dismiss such a possibility, or anything close to it.

[tower912]

The Tigers will exercise their option on Valverde.   Cross him off of the list.    Ordonez, Guillen, Betemit, and Penny come off of the payroll, opening up $35 million to play with.   Expect Detroit to be players in both the Reyes and Ramirez sweepstakes.   

[Henry Sugar]

Comparison of Fielder and Mo Vaughn, just because I like pretty pictures.  Forecasts Fielder for about three more productive years.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?playerid2=4613&playerid3=899&playerid4=&playerid5

[jmayer1]

The Brewers are undoubtedly going to offer arbitration... it's a high-risk, high-reward move, but don't be surprised if Fielder accepts and Boras negotiates the arbitration clause out in a one-year deal laden with incentives to bring the thing over $20M (which is probably more than he'd make in the first year of an eight-year deal any way).  It may seem like a long-shot, but you'd be out of your own mind to outright dismiss such a possibility, or anything close to it.

How is offering Fielder arbitration a high-risk move? If he accepts (never, ever going to happen) they work out a 1-year deal. Of course they are going to offer him arbitration, if they don't the Brewers get no compensation. That's like saying the sun is going to rise in the East tomorrow, it goes without saying.

I think you are the only one out of your mind if you think Fielder would sign a 1 year deal. Why would he (and Boras) possibily try to squeeze out a couple million more in year 1 and risk all the guaranteed money he's bound to get with an injury or down year next year? Fielder is going to get a monster deal next year. Regardless of who you think is a bigger free agent "priority" next year, in actuality, he'll probably sign the 2nd biggest deal by a decent margin. He really cannot improve his value any more than it is right now by playing under a 1 year contract next year.

[Hards Alumni]

Pujols is the #1 FA in 2012, without a doubt.  He may leave St. Louis, he may not.  But bear in mind while Prince is the youngest and second most productive of the 2012 1B FA class, let's face it... there are still questions about his weight and his defense circling around, and most teams may be more inclined to take a flyer on a Papi or Thome-type for a year rather than commit eight years to Fielder.

That said, the big money is going to chase Jose Reyes and C.J. Wilson.  CC Sabathia is going to opt-out only to resign with the Yankees, but rumors are circling that Texas may make a strong push for CC, especially if Wilson doesn't re-sign.  Further, there are more teams that need closers than those that need 1B, and so Valverde and K-Rod might even be a higher priority than Fielder on teams' hot stove lists.

One other factor to keep in mind is that Fielder probably won't sign anywhere until Pujols "sets the market."  If Pujols takes his time, the big money elsewhere may already be spent by the time he inks his contract, which would leave Fielder out in the cold.

Although he might be as high as #2 or #3, Fielder may be as low as the #7 free agent on the market this year.  I'll stick to my opinion that he's #4 behind Pujols, Reyes, and Wilson/Sabathia.

See above... a bad week against the Cardinals is a mere afterthought when you consider the supply/demand aspects of Fielders next contract.

The Brewers are undoubtedly going to offer arbitration... it's a high-risk, high-reward move, but don't be surprised if Fielder accepts and Boras negotiates the arbitration clause out in a one-year deal laden with incentives to bring the thing over $20M (which is probably more than he'd make in the first year of an eight-year deal any way).  It may seem like a long-shot, but you'd be out of your own mind to outright dismiss such a possibility, or anything close to it.

Never ever pay for closers.  

I have Reyes as my wish player... I'd LOVE him in Milwaukee, and I'd buy a Reyes jersey that day... Though I know it is probably a pipe dream.

I think the Brewers are okay without Fielder... but they need to sign someone with some pop in their bat... to at least keep a threat going.

I think Hart will continue to lead off, Morgan 2nd, Weeks 3rd, and Braun 4th... unless they find a bat to protect Braun.

[NavinRJohnson]

The Brewers are undoubtedly going to offer arbitration... it's a high-risk, high-reward move, but don't be surprised if Fielder accepts and Boras negotiates the arbitration clause out in a one-year deal laden with incentives to bring the thing over $20M (which is probably more than he'd make in the first year of an eight-year deal any way).  It may seem like a long-shot, but you'd be out of your own mind to outright dismiss such a possibility, or anything close to it.

I do completely dismiss the possibility of him accepting it, or anything close to it. The guys is in his prime baseball years right now. Short of getting hit over the head with a blunt object, what on God's green earth would cause him to sign a one year contract, when teams will be offering him 6+?

The flaw in your thinking seems to be the league's doubts about his ability, and where that puts him in the pecking order. The guy has a Hall of Fame bat and everyone knows it. Beyond that, Pujols for example is 4 years older than Fielder (at least), and is definitely entering the back side of his career. Fielder will get the bigger/longer contract this year. He doesn't need to wait a year. Baseball contracts are about years much more than they are dollars. Waiting a year doesn't help him, it can only hurt him.

Of the guys you mentions, Reyes and Fielder are going to get the longest-term deals, likely followed by Sabathia, Pujols and Wilson, . K-Rod is no more than a 2-3 year contract guy, especially in light of guys like Papelbon, Bell and Madsen on the market.

[jmayer1]

Comparison of Fielder and Mo Vaughn, just because I like pretty pictures.  Forecasts Fielder for about three more productive years.

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?playerid2=4613&playerid3=899&playerid4=&playerid5

That seems like quite a leap to make based on the graphs you linked to? ZiPS (which Fangraphs and numerous othere sites use for projections) actually project Fielder to have some pretty good staying power over the upcoming years (as opposed to Mo Vaughn).

http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/7068218/how-milwaukee-brewers-cope-prince-fielder

[jmayer1]

I do completely dismiss the possibility of him accepting it, or anything close to it. The guys is in his prime baseball years right now. Short of getting hit over the head with a blunt object, what on God's green earth would cause him to sign a one year contract, when teams will be offering him 6+?

The flaw in your thinking seems to be the league's doubts about his ability, and where that puts him in the pecking order. The guy has a Hall of Fame bat and everyone knows it. Beyond that, Pujols for example is 4 years older than Fielder (at least), and is definitely entering the back side of his career. Fielder will get the bigger/longer contract this year. He doesn't need to wait a year. Baseball contracts are about years much more than they are dollars. Waiting a year doesn't help him, it can only hurt him.

Of the guys you mentions, Reyes and Fielder are going to get the longest-term deals, likely followed by Sabathia, Pujols and Wilson, . K-Rod is no more than a 2-3 year contract guy, especially in light of guys like Papelbon, Bell and Madsen on the market.

I wouldn't bet on Fielder getting a bigger/longer deal than Pujols. Albert may be 4 years older, but he's also a much, much beter player than Prince. This is the 1st year Fielder ever had a better WAR than Pujols and even then he only beat him by 0.4 with Pujols missing 15 games and having 2 of the worst months of his career to start the season (WAR according to fangraphs). If I was a gm, I'd be confident that Pujols will have more value over the next 6-8 years than Fielder.

[wadesworld]

I do completely dismiss the possibility of him accepting it, or anything close to it. The guys is in his prime baseball years right now. Short of getting hit over the head with a blunt object, what on God's green earth would cause him to sign a one year contract, when teams will be offering him 6+?

The flaw in your thinking seems to be the league's doubts about his ability, and where that puts him in the pecking order. The guy has a Hall of Fame bat and everyone knows it. Beyond that, Pujols for example is 4 years older than Fielder (at least), and is definitely entering the back side of his career. Fielder will get the bigger/longer contract this year. He doesn't need to wait a year. Baseball contracts are about years much more than they are dollars. Waiting a year doesn't help him, it can only hurt him.

Of the guys you mentions, Reyes and Fielder are going to get the longest-term deals, likely followed by Sabathia, Pujols and Wilson, . K-Rod is no more than a 2-3 year contract guy, especially in light of guys like Papelbon, Bell and Madsen on the market.

I agree with everything except for Pujols not getting a longer contract.  He'll get a 10 year, $200+ million deal.  That was rumored to be the Cardinals original offer to him, which he declined.  He won't go below that.

Fielder will get probably around an 8 year, $160 million deal.

[Benny B]

How is offering Fielder arbitration a high-risk move? If he accepts (never, ever going to happen) they work out a 1-year deal. Of course they are going to offer him arbitration, if they don't the Brewers get no compensation.

It would be high-risk, high-reward for Fielder, not the Brewers.  (I only took enough English to meet the minimum requirements, so perhaps I didn't structure the paragraph properly, if so, my bad.)  But isn't Boras' SOP inherently high-risk, high-reward?...

I do completely dismiss the possibility of him accepting it, or anything close to it. The guys is in his prime baseball years right now. Short of getting hit over the head with a blunt object, what on God's green earth would cause him to sign a one year contract, when teams will be offering him 6+?

You're assuming he can get 6+ years right now... my argument is that I wouldn't bank on that.  Moreover, Boras has already established that he wants 8yrs/$200M... if that's the goal, and it's not achievable this year, wouldn't you wait a year if you thought it would be achievable next year?  In other words, why would Prince take a 8yr/$160M contract today if he thinks he can accept arbitration for $20M and get a 7yr/$180M contract next year?

The flaw in your thinking seems to be the league's doubts about his ability, and where that puts him in the pecking order. The guy has a Hall of Fame bat and everyone knows it. Beyond that, Pujols for example is 4 years older than Fielder (at least), and is definitely entering the back side of his career. Fielder will get the bigger/longer contract this year. He doesn't need to wait a year. Baseball contracts are about years much more than they are dollars. Waiting a year doesn't help him, it can only hurt him.

No... the league's doubts have nothing to do with his ability; they have to do with his future.  (Granted he has a HOF bat, but unfortunately it comes with a AAA glove.)  Regardless, his spot in the pecking order has very little to do with what he brings to the table.  Rather, I'm basing his position as the #4 FA based upon the following (in order of importance):

1) The specific needs of each MLB team
2) The availability of other high-profile players
3) The ability and/or willingness of teams to meet Boras' demands
4) The marginal value of Fielder vs. an "average replacement"

In short, my underlying rationale is that the baseball market is going to suck this year.  In most places, attendance is down, ratings are down, season ticket renewals are down, teams are struggling with revenue enhancements, etc. and the economy just plain sucks.  Not many people, baseball executives included, are going to take many risks right now, and corporations are hoarding cash.  This is not a political statement, but we should see a revival in personal outlays and corporate spending in 2012.  If you have the wherewithal, the smart move for anyone looking to sell - be it an asset or your services long term - is to hold serve for a year and take advantage of a market on the upswing next year.

EDIT: For those wanting to espouse the "he could get hurt" argument, keep in mind the Brewers have put long-term deals on the table each of the past five years, only to be rejected each time.  He could get hurt in 2012, but he could have just as easily been hurt any of the past six years, too, but he eschewed financial security for the opportunity of a big payday.  Again - high risk, high reward... it's been the mantra all along, why should it change now?

[NavinRJohnson]

In other words, why would Prince take a 8yr/$160M contract today if he thinks he can accept arbitration for $20M and get a 7yr/$180M contract next year?

Because he's not stupid.

EDIT: For those wanting to espouse the "he could get hurt" argument, keep in mind the Brewers have put long-term deals on the table each of the past five years, only to be rejected each time.  He could get hurt in 2012, but he could have just as easily been hurt any of the past six years, too, but he eschewed financial security for the opportunity of a big payday.  Again - high risk, high reward... it's been the mantra all along, why should it change now?

Apples and oranges...the Brewers controlled him back then and he had no shot at the open market and the positive impact that can have on years and dollars. That has changed now. The hometown discount was inherent in those offers. The Brewers no longer have that leverage. He has been waiting for the opportunity to cash in for years, and everyone knew it. His last offer was reported at 5/$100M, and granted that was just months from his free agency, but he turned it down because he knows darn well he will get in the neighborhood of 50% or more than that this year. That's not a small difference.

[MUBurrow]

I would love for the Crew to get Reyes, or a big bat to replace Prince, etc etc. Won't ever happen though. The Brewers have shockingly little financial flexibility this offseason, despite the Prince contract coming off the books.  The first year of Rickie's extension kicks in, and he's due a $6.5mm raise.  Hart is set for a $2.5mm raise. Braun and Yo get over $2mm raises each. Through arbitration, Marcum and McGehee are each projected to get over $2.5mm raises each. (Even if you don't like McGehee as the solution at 3rd, he would still be a valuable commodity in a trade and is a bargain gamble to bounce back at that price). That's $18mm right there.

Moral of the story - that $15.5mm is going to get drank up really fast. And thats without patching other holes the team will have (bullpen - Hawkins, Saito's deals are up, SS if we buy out Yuni, a couple of wily vets to replace Counsell/Kotsay.)

[MUMac]

I would love for the Crew to get Reyes, or a big bat to replace Prince, etc etc. Won't ever happen though. The Brewers have shockingly little financial flexibility this offseason, despite the Prince contract coming off the books.  The first year of Rickie's extension kicks in, and he's due a $6.5mm raise.  Hart is set for a $2.5mm raise. Braun and Yo get over $2mm raises each. Through arbitration, Marcum and McGehee are each projected to get over $2.5mm raises each. (Even if you don't like McGehee as the solution at 3rd, he would still be a valuable commodity in a trade and is a bargain gamble to bounce back at that price). That's $18mm right there.

Moral of the story - that $15.5mm is going to get drank up really fast. And thats without patching other holes the team will have (bullpen - Hawkins, Saito's deals are up, SS if we buy out Yuni, a couple of wily vets to replace Counsell/Kotsay.)

Don't know.  I think Antanasio increases the payroll this year.  A couple of reasons.  First, coming off of the divisional title/playoffs, he wants to keep the momentum.  That is especially true since he acquired Marcum/Grienke last year.  Window is still there.

I think McGehee is gone.  Not a good fielder and his bat did nothing this year.  Same with Uni.

My 2nd reason is that if they do make an offer for Fielder, it would be awfully difficult to sit tight and explain to the fans that you do not have the money when you just offerred it to one player.

Braun is pushing for Reyes.  I would love him on the Brewers.

[Hards Alumni]

Don't know.  I think Antanasio increases the payroll this year.  A couple of reasons.  First, coming off of the divisional title/playoffs, he wants to keep the momentum.  That is especially true since he acquired Marcum/Grienke last year.  Window is still there.

I think McGehee is gone.  Not a good fielder and his bat did nothing this year.  Same with Uni.

My 2nd reason is that if they do make an offer for Fielder, it would be awfully difficult to sit tight and explain to the fans that you do not have the money when you just offerred it to one player.

Braun is pushing for Reyes.  I would love him on the Brewers.

Yuni actually had one of, if not his best, year in pro ball this year.  He was 2nd in SS RBIs.

[BrewCity83]

Yuni actually had one of, if not his best, year in pro ball this year.  He was 2nd in SS RBIs.

He may have, but he still hurt the team way more than he helped.  His crappy fielding, poor range, and lack of baseball sense at the plate killed them all year, except for those few weeks when he got hot.  He's gotta go.

[Hards Alumni]

He may have, but he still hurt the team way more than he helped.  His crappy fielding, poor range, and lack of baseball sense at the plate killed them all year, except for those few weeks when he got hot.  He's gotta go.

Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't be heart broken to see him go.  Just need someone who can at least fill his shoes though.

[ringout]

If they were 'Moneyball' guys they wouldn't be upgrading your defense.

I was using "Moneyball" pretty loosely.  I was defining Moneyball in the "use all the money you would have paid for one guy to fill multiple holes" sense.   

I know BB doesn't really care about defense that much, but you need to admit, it cost the Brewers in the NLCS.

[GGGG]

The problem is that his 2012 salary ($6M) isn't worth is puny WAR (0.7).  It won't be hard to get at least the same level of player for much less money.

[Benny B]

Actually, the Brewers only have about $13M coming off the books excluding minor league contracts.  Total major league payroll for 2011 is going to be between $86-88M.  The projected 2012 Opening Day payroll is about $73M by my estimate based on an assumed roster (at this point) of:

OF: Morgan*, Gomez, Braun*, Hart*
IF: Green*, Gamel*, Weeks*, McGehee
SP: Gallardo, Greinke, Marcum, Wolf, Narveson
RP: De La Cruz, Kintzler, Dillard, Stetter, Axford, Estrada, Parra, Loe
C: Lucroy*, Kottaras
(*Projected starters)

Granted, some of the above may be released... I simply based my assumption on who from the Sept 28 roster is under club control next year.

So as it stands, even with a slight boost in payroll to $90M, the Brewers have $17M to spend on a SS and (probably) a utility infielder.  Even if Reyes could be had for $17M, that still leaves two unproven guys at the corner infield positions, an offense that lacks a true clean-up hitter, and a bullpen that won't be as dominant as it was in late innings.

If Melvin wants to shuffle things around to free up more money to address multiple needs, barring a trade, the candidates are: Gomez, Stetter, Kottaras, Parra, Loe, Morgan and McGehee. Of that group, I would say Parra & Loe are expendable - that's $3M freed up between the two.  I'm not sure Gomez is going anywhere because his speed and defense alone are probably worth a few million, and I'm only projecting him to make $1.8M next year.  As a player, Morgan is a bargain at a projected $1.0M salary if he can replicate what he did on the field this year; if McGehee could regain his stroke, he's also worth a projected million sitting on the bench.  Unless they trade for a CF, Morgan probably stays and Casey goes.  If Parra is sent off, the Brewers will undoubtedly retain Stetter as their lefty specialist (something they didn't have this year), and Kottaras likely isn't going anywhere either.

So now the Brewers have $21M to spend and need a starting SS, a late-inning reliever or two, a utility infielder, a clean-up hitter, and a bat on the bench (granted, two of those needs can be filled by the same player).  None of those are likely to be filled from within, and $21M isn't going to get you top tier talent at all of those positions.  So look for Melvin to be active on the trade market again this year.  It's going to be an interesting off-season for the Crew.

[MUMac]

Yuni actually had one of, if not his best, year in pro ball this year.  He was 2nd in SS RBIs.

He played his way out of KC and likely here.  Hit o k, but clutch hitting an issue.  Too much of a freelance at the plate.  Still do not understand swinging at a 2-0 pitch after 7 straight balls were thrown in the Playoffs.  Makes some plays in the field, but overall a weak spot in the line-up.

The Brewers will likely let him go for the $2MM. 

[MUBurrow]

Don't know.  I think Antanasio increases the payroll this year.  A couple of reasons.  First, coming off of the divisional title/playoffs, he wants to keep the momentum.  That is especially true since he acquired Marcum/Grienke last year.  Window is still there.
Braun is pushing for Reyes.  I would love him on the Brewers.

I agree there is a window there, but I think its a narrow one, and is better served by being a major deadline buyer than a FA buyer. Marcum and Greinke will not both be here in 2013, so the window we're talking about here is all of one year before some sort of youth movement/restocking will have to happen. I would hate to give a 29 year old, injury prone SS heavily reliant on his speed for value a massive deal just because we thought we could win this year. Similarly with Prince, I don't think the Brewers can afford the gamble to pay him anywhere close to his market worth. Those kinds of gambles can doom a mid-market team.  If we can put a decent team together that is close at the deadline, lets see what rentals are out there for big bats and go for it that way (if we have enough in the farm to make it work).

Looking at FA's, there aren't a lot of guys who jump off the page as potential value (but i guess if they jumped off the page, they wouldn't be values) For a mid-back end of the lineup type to protect the 3, 4 I think maybe Edwin Encarnacion would be a nice 5 hitter and plays a decent 3B.  If we move Hart to 1B instead of going after Pena, etc, I'd really like the Brewers to take a look at Ryan Ludwick. He's a pretty good hitter with some power, and depressed numbers after spending time in SD might drive his market down.  Xavier Nady is a good bench option that can play both 1B and RF competently. Jorge Cantu, when healthy, can also start at either infield corner and has a nice little bat. I think those are the types we're looking at as far as FA signings. We can't afford the money/risk with much more.

[SaintPaulWarrior]

Yuni actually had one of, if not his best, year in pro ball this year.  He was 2nd in SS RBIs.

6th in SS RBI's.