Volvo is Eliminating Internal Combustion Engines By 2019 (Going Electric)

[🏀]

a mileage tax is likely IMO, I believe some states are already experimenting with this

I think it's the most sensible, but least likely.

Not many people are going to be thrilled with the government tracking their mileage.

[tower912]

Are not the batteries in an all electric car the major component contributing to the weight of the car? If true, I would like to know how, "quick", will be defined and where will these "packs" be located in the automobile for the swap out.

In the 'frunk' where the combustion engine used to reside.  Open the hood, take out the spent suitcase sized battery, replace it with a charged suitcase sized battery.    Like I said,  at least a decade and several generations of development away.  In other words, battery technology isn't  even close yet.

[B. McBannerson]

The article says hybrid or electric, so the internal combustion engines are not going away (hybrids still use an internal combustion engine), and the hybrids have as much range as you want.

The Op starter isn't telling whole story here and a number of you have properly pointed that out.  Volvo, it should be mentioned, is owned by the Chinese now.  One ranking has it  97th in the auto world. It isn't what it used to be, where it's niche marketing was safety. They don't own that persona any longer. This feels like a desperate move to grab headlines.

Key questions

1) Batteries.  Where are the batteries going upon lifespan?  Environmental question marks
2) Range a major issue
3) Recharge time.  Even switchable batteries mean extra cost (multiple batteries) and constant regeneration which has environmental impacts

Tesla had legislation in Texas to support a direct sales model. It failed last month for the third time. You can't buy them in AZ, UT, CT and a few others. Dealer laws.

When I travel to California there are many on the road, but in talking to their owners it is range and recharge at the top of the list.  That isn't Tesla alone, but any of the electric only vehicles. 

Quite a way to go.

[MU82]

I get 48mpg in my diesel. But I only get around 550 per tank. How big is her tank?

The Sonata Hybrid has a 15.8 gal tank.

Otherwise, leave Mrs. MU82 (aka MU83) out of this!

[B. McBannerson]

I think it's the most sensible, but least likely.

Not many people are going to be thrilled with the government tracking their mileage.

It's an affront to large groups of people living in the suburbs that have no desire to live in the cities.  Poor people that cannot afford to live in the cities are unduly harmed, as are people that make their living on the road.  Those details may work themselves out.  Support, even in liberal states like Oregon and California is below 30%. Some libertarians don't want it because the gov't is tracking citizens.  Some conservatives see it as a money grab and a way to push people to live in urban areas. Some liberals have concerns about unduly hitting the poor who cannot afford to live in urban areas.

Oregon, California, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Delaware have or want to test it. 

[ATL MU Warrior]

The Op starter isn't telling whole story here and a number of you have properly pointed that out.  Volvo, it should be mentioned, is owned by the Chinese now.  One ranking has it  97th in the auto world. It isn't what it used to be, where it's niche marketing was safety. They don't own that persona any longer. This feels like a desperate move to grab headlines.

Key questions

1) Batteries.  Where are the batteries going upon lifespan?  Environmental question marks
2) Range a major issue
3) Recharge time.  Even switchable batteries mean extra cost (multiple batteries) and constant regeneration which has environmental impacts

Tesla had legislation in Texas to support a direct sales model. It failed last month for the third time. You can't buy them in AZ, UT, CT and a few others. Dealer laws.

When I travel to California there are many on the road, but in talking to their owners it is range and recharge at the top of the list.  That isn't Tesla alone, but any of the electric only vehicles. 

Quite a way to go.

But, but...according to someone here it should be no problem for ALL manufacturers to move to a direct sales model...I was told it would happen practically overnight...  SMH

[GGGG]

It's an affront to large groups of people living in the suburbs that have no desire to live in the cities.  Poor people that cannot afford to live in the cities are unduly harmed, as are people that make their living on the road.  Those details may work themselves out.  Support, even in liberal states like Oregon and California is below 30%. Some libertarians don't want it because the gov't is tracking citizens.  Some conservatives see it as a money grab and a way to push people to live in urban areas. Some liberals have concerns about unduly hitting the poor who cannot afford to live in urban areas.

Oregon, California, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Delaware have or want to test it. 

A mileage tax is really nothing more than a usage tax.  It is a way to get those who use the public roads most often to pay for them.  A gas tax is a similar concept but as cars have become more fuel efficient, the revenues have decreased relatively. 

[Tugg Speedman]

This entire thread is becoming a good example of how entrenched thinking and "feet in clay" attitudes still exist and why so many industries get run over by new technology and the amazing number of people that do not get it and will continue to get run over.

When Will Electric Cars Go Mainstream? It May Be Sooner Than You Think
The New York Times
July 8, 2017
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/08/climate/electric-cars-batteries.html?ref=business&_r=0

As the world’s automakers place larger bets on electric vehicle technology, many industry analysts are debating a key question: How quickly can plug-in cars become mainstream?

The conventional view holds that electric cars will remain a niche product for many years, plagued by high sticker prices and heavily dependent on government subsidies.

But a growing number of analysts now argue that this pessimism is becoming outdated. A new report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, a research group, suggests that the price of plug-in cars is falling much faster than expected, spurred by cheaper batteries and aggressive policies promoting zero-emission vehicles in China and Europe.

Between 2025 and 2030, the group predicts, plug-in vehicles will become cost competitive with traditional petroleum-powered cars, even without subsidies and even before taking fuel savings into account. Once that happens, mass adoption should quickly follow.

[🏀]

It's an affront to large groups of people living in the suburbs that have no desire to live in the cities.  Poor people that cannot afford to live in the cities are unduly harmed, as are people that make their living on the road.  Those details may work themselves out.  Support, even in liberal states like Oregon and California is below 30%. Some libertarians don't want it because the gov't is tracking citizens.  Some conservatives see it as a money grab and a way to push people to live in urban areas. Some liberals have concerns about unduly hitting the poor who cannot afford to live in urban areas.

Oregon, California, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Delaware have or want to test it. 

I was wondering what moniker you would respond with.

I will ignore the actual text because it makes little sense.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Heisy is quoting the New York "Fake News" Times? He must be getting desperate!

(I pray that teal is not necessary)

[Tugg Speedman]

But, but...according to someone here it should be no problem for ALL manufacturers to move to a direct sales model...I was told it would happen practically overnight...  SMH

If the dealers are going to rely on legislation to keep their business model going, suggesting their economics are uncompetitive (otherwise they would not need the legislation), they are doomed.

[ATL MU Warrior]

If the dealers are going to rely on legislation to keep their business model going, suggesting their economics are uncompetitive (otherwise they would not need the legislation), they are doomed.

That is not the reason for the legislation.

[Tugg Speedman]

That is not the reason for the legislation.

Then explain...


Corruption Index: If A State Moves To Ban Tesla Direct Sales, It's A Sign Of Corruption
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20140311/15270526534/corruption-index-if-state-moves-to-ban-tesla-direct-sales-its-sign-corruption.shtml

States earn about 20 percent of all state sales taxes from auto dealers, and auto dealerships can easily account for 7-8 percent of all retail employment.... The bulk of these taxes (89 percent) are generated by new car dealerships, those with whom manufacturers deal directly. As a result, car dealerships, and especially local or state car dealership associations, have been able to exert influence over local legislatures. This has resulted in a set of state laws that almost guarantee dealership profitability and survival--albeit at the expense of manufacturer profits. Given these laws, manufacturers do have a financial interest in closing down new car dealerships, and in choosing which ones wil close. Additionally, available evidence and theory suggests that as a result of these laws, distribution costs and retail prices are higher than they otherwise would be; and this is particularly true for Detroit's Big Three car manufacturers--which is likely another factor contributing to their losses in market share vis-a-vis other manufacturers.


There is basically no valid reason for such laws. They serve no purpose other than to enrich local car dealership owners and state tax coffers at the expense of everyone else -- especially the public.

[Tugg Speedman]

In the 'frunk' where the combustion engine used to reside.  Open the hood, take out the spent suitcase sized battery, replace it with a charged suitcase sized battery.    Like I said,  at least a decade and several generations of development away.  In other words, battery technology isn't  even close yet.

Or maybe it is ... three new models that can get 500 miles a charge are coming in the next 18 months.

[GGGG]

All sorts of companies don't sell directly to the consumer and rely on retail outlets (either big box or online) to sell their products.  For instance, you can't by a Sony television set directly from Sony.  You can't by a can of green beans directly from DelMonte. 

Are there efficiencies that could be wrung out of the dealer network?  Sure.  But I think we are seeing some of that already.  There has been a huge consolidation of dealers over the past decade.  Furthermore there has been a great deal of business practice improvement that the customer is demanding.  Price transparency...less haggling...etc. 

I think even if you got rid of the local laws, you wouldn't see a huge rush to have companies set up their own dealerships.  Dealerships provide maintenance services, trade-in, warranty work, etc.  I just don't think that is a business that most manufacturers want to get involved with.

Further consolidation I would agree with.  A company like AutoMax becoming the Wal-Mart or Amazon of the dealership world?  Yes.  But just like most retail products, most companies realize that specializing in the manufacture of the products is best and let other companies deal with the sale of their products (under certain guidelines of course.)

[mu03eng]

Those supporting the rapid adoption of electric cars are missing something that won't allow it to happen so rapidly (probably 15-20 years away) and it doesn't have to do with the technology. The electrical infrastructure in this country will not support the mass adoption of electric vehicles.....we don't have enough generation capacity to support it, and further more we don't have the transmission infrastructure in place.....put that kind of load on the grid and you are just as likely to take the whole thing down. We're going to have to go distributed generation, which is fine but very expensive and time consuming which raises the TCO for an electric car.

One other note, I'm still waiting for the exposes on how dirty(environmentally) the battery industry is. Current battery technology requires metals that are far more rare then oil, so that might also limit mass adoption.

[B. McBannerson]

We all have our opinions, nothing wrong with that.  You may not agree with my opinions, but to say it makes little sense is not accurate.


Pros and Cons to mileage tax. Fair article.  https://www.mileiq.com/blog/mileage-tax-gas-tax/


Libertarian point of view against  http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/04/dont-track-me-bro-glenn-reynolds-on-mile

Bad economic policy  http://economics.about.com/od/taxesandeconomicgrowth/a/mileage_tax.htm

US Rep from CT has his view   http://connecticut.cbslocal.com/2017/02/21/ray-dunaway-an-argument-against-the-mileage-tax/

[B. McBannerson]

This entire thread is becoming a good example of how entrenched thinking and "feet in clay" attitudes still exist and why so many industries get run over by new technology and the amazing number of people that do not get it and will continue to get run over.

When Will Electric Cars Go Mainstream? It May Be Sooner Than You Think
The New York Times
July 8, 2017
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/08/climate/electric-cars-batteries.html?ref=business&_r=0

As the world’s automakers place larger bets on electric vehicle technology, many industry analysts are debating a key question: How quickly can plug-in cars become mainstream?

The conventional view holds that electric cars will remain a niche product for many years, plagued by high sticker prices and heavily dependent on government subsidies.

But a growing number of analysts now argue that this pessimism is becoming outdated. A new report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance, a research group, suggests that the price of plug-in cars is falling much faster than expected, spurred by cheaper batteries and aggressive policies promoting zero-emission vehicles in China and Europe.

Between 2025 and 2030, the group predicts, plug-in vehicles will become cost competitive with traditional petroleum-powered cars, even without subsidies and even before taking fuel savings into account. Once that happens, mass adoption should quickly follow.

Do you read the articles you link?  There are sections in there that say 2040, or may not be adopted at all.  Completely counter to your cherry picking.  None of us here know how this ends, we all have opinions and strong guesses.

[B. McBannerson]

Or maybe it is ... three new models that can get 500 miles a charge are coming in the next 18 months.

In a gas vehicle, we go 500 miles, pull over and grab a gatorade while filling up for 5 minutes, throw another 500 if we want.  That's today, that was 5 years ago, that was 20 years ago (mileage variances).  Terrific that range improves, but that doesn't solve the long haul problem.

And how are we disposing of all these batteries and the environmental time bomb they pose?

[GGGG]

We all have our opinions, nothing wrong with that.  You may not agree with my opinions, but to say it makes little sense is not accurate.


Pros and Cons to mileage tax. Fair article.  https://www.mileiq.com/blog/mileage-tax-gas-tax/


Libertarian point of view against  http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/04/dont-track-me-bro-glenn-reynolds-on-mile

Bad economic policy  http://economics.about.com/od/taxesandeconomicgrowth/a/mileage_tax.htm

US Rep from CT has his view   http://connecticut.cbslocal.com/2017/02/21/ray-dunaway-an-argument-against-the-mileage-tax/

The best comment was in the Economics link.  Basically it's just easier to raise the gas tax. 

[Tugg Speedman]

Do you read the articles you link?  There are sections in there that say 2040, or may not be adopted at all.  Completely counter to your cherry picking.  None of us here know how this ends, we all have opinions and strong guesses.

Do you know how to read the newspaper?  Because they typical counter-points you cite is not the point of the article.  It is the title and the first several paragraphs shown above.

Do you read MU basketball articles like this, pulling out every negative counter-point mentioned and conclude we are the worst team in D1 ball?

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Do you know how to read the newspaper?  Because they typical counter-points you cite is not the point of the article.  It is the title and the first several paragraphs shown above.

Do you read MU basketball articles like this, pulling out every negative counter-point mentioned and conclude we are the worst team in D1 ball?

Do you read only the good points and only assume we have been a blur blood for the past 40 years?

I have no dog in this fight. I have no idea when and if electric cars will take over.  But I'm pretty sure you're supposed to read the entire article,  the good and the bad.

[Tugg Speedman]

Do you read only the good points and only assume we have been a blur blood for the past 40 years?

I have no dog in this fight. I have no idea when and if electric cars will take over.  But I'm pretty sure you're supposed to read the entire article,  the good and the bad.

And if you do that, it says they are coming much faster than you think.  This was such important point that the title was ...

When Will Electric Cars Go Mainstream? It May Be Sooner Than You Think

But 4to5 is saying that is not the point at all.  Around the 20th paragraph is offered some caveats so that means none of this is happening.

[forgetful]

Or maybe it is ... three new models that can get 500 miles a charge are coming in the next 18 months.

It says 500 km not miles.

[mu03eng]

It says 500 km not miles.

So it goes 90 miles less than my 2005 Altima goes on a tank of gas...for a road trip that means at least one extra stop for any trip over 600 miles.