ESPN: MU Three Big Things

[MisterJaylenBrownMU]

http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/63695/three-big-things-marquette

By Eamon Brennan

"1. Most Big East coaches would settle for having one conference player of the year candidate in any given year. After all, two isn't easy. Think about it: Not only does the team have to be a contender, but both players have to get enough touches to put up star-level counting statistics (because conference awards are typically still a fuzzy function of wins-plus-production). That Jae Crowder and Darius Johnson-Odom were both favorites to win the Big East Player of the Year award at various times last season is a testament to just how good both players were -- and how important they were to their team.

Johnson-Odom and Crowder led the Golden Eagles in touches, which is pretty obvious; less obvious, perhaps, is just how wide the usage gap was. According to Synergy scouting data, DJO and Crowder combined for 1,136 possessions in 2011-12, scoring 1,206 points. (In fact, both players scored exactly 603 points. How's that for balance?) Marquette's third-most-used player, guard Vander Blue, accounted for 363 possessions, while Junior Cadougan and Todd Mayo notched 304 and 303, respectively.

This observation is not exactly groundbreaking: Johnson-Odom and Crowder were Marquette's two best players, and senior leaders to boot. Replacing their production will be -- duh -- difficult. But few teams in the country relied so heavily on two stars last season, and few coaches in the country will have more work on their plate to replace that production than Buzz Williams will have this season.

2. The good news? Williams has the depth to do it. Blue, Cadougan and Mayo are all back, and all capable of making up for the touches lost to the departure of Johnson-Odom, who tended to dominate the ball on the wing. Arizona State transfer Trent Lockett is in the mix. Soft-handed forward Davante Gardner, whose big body is rounding into form, will anchor the middle alongside redshirt senior Chris Otule. Jamil Wilson and freshman swingman Steve Taylor (who ESPN's scouts say could "develop into a classic small forward") provide options on the wing.

That's the key word for it: options. Blue, a highly touted recruit in the class of 2010, seems the most likely potential star to emerge from the post-DJO era, but Mayo (brother of NBA guard O.J. Mayo) showed flashes of that familial brilliance throughout the 2012 season. Even so, it seems safe to say that no player in Williams' 2012-13 lineup will be as good as either Johnson-Odom or Crowder. But the overall effect could be one of more balance, not less. Touches are no longer at a premium.

3. Which brings us to pace. According to Ken Pomeroy's adjusted tempo metric, Marquette was the 16th-fastest team in the country in 2011-12. Johnson-Odom loved to run. (There were few sights in college hoops more exciting than seeing DJO race down the floor, high left-hand dribble in tow, preparing to euro-step a defender into oblivion.) Crowder was a FINO (forward in name only); the 6-foot-6-if-you-say-so energy guy didn't bang in the low post nearly as much as he spotted up from the perimeter. (Spot-ups accounted for 26 percent of Crowder's possessions, most of any weapon in his arsenal.)

Both players were unique. Both could stick with a variety of putative mismatches on defense, and both could fly around the floor on offense. Crowder especially was excellent at chasing down offensive rebounds despite being 20 feet from the rim. All of these things accentuated Williams preference for up-tempo basketball.

Will that change in 2012-13? Gardner and Otule are far more conventional big men than Crowder; both players are traditional anchor types who need to be near the rim to be effective. Or will Marquette's plethora of backcourt and wing options -- including Cadougan's quick-twitch point-guard style -- keep the Golden Eagles running? I'm not sure, and I'm not sure it matters; pace doesn't guarantee success, or vice versa.

Williams doesn't have to undergo a full rebuild, which is impressive, considering the talent and touches lost. But this is nonetheless hardly the same team that reached the Sweet 16 before falling to Florida in March. That evolution -- whether this team changes its style and pace and scoring balance, and how -- will be the story of its 2012-13 season."

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Johnson-Odom loved to run. (There were few sights in college hoops more exciting than seeing DJO race down the floor, high left-hand dribble in tow, preparing to euro-step a defender into oblivion.)

Awesome description of DJO.

[BrewCity83]

Brennan hasn't seen either Otule or Gardner if he thinks they're "traditional".

[Goose]

I hope we increase the tempo, not slow it down. We have enough guys to go full out for forty minutes.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Brennan hasn't seen either Otule or Gardner if he thinks they're "traditional".

I don't know, compared to MU's previous "bigs" (Crowder, Wilson, Butler), those guys are more traditional.

If they score, it's in the paint, and you don't really want them handling the ball outside of the blocks.

[MU82]

Aside from perhaps overstating Blue's ability to take over and underestimating Wilson and Lockett, this was a very fair assessment by the author.

Folks here like to point out that every time we thought it would be tough to replace a guy, we somehow have done it. But I don't think the task has been this difficult in many years, and this article illustrates why in cold, hard numbers.

When Wade left, we still had Diener, Novak and even Merritt. When Diener left, we still had Novak and a highly touted freshman class. When Novak left, we still had the Amigos. When the Amigos left, we still had Hayward. When Hayward left, we still had Butler and DJO. When Butler left, we still had DJO and Crowder.

Now that DJO and Crowder have left, we have zero double-digit scorers returning and a good but hardly storied freshman class. The biggest concern is little proven perimeter shooting; the 3-pointer is huge, huge, huge in college hoops.

We need Lockett and Wilson to be much bigger factors than the author suggests they will be, need Vander to mature significantly on and off the court, need Mayo to shoot WAY better than he did during most of the Big East season and need Junior to be a consistent floor leader. We need health from the big men, too. Can all those things happen? I sure as heck hope so!

[Goose]

I have VERY high expectations for Vander this year and would be shocked if not met.

[GGGG]

Vander has already matured considerably off the court.  He already did so by last year at this time.  Don't saddle him with stuff that happened his first semester on campus for the rest of his career.

[MUEng92]

When Wade left, we still had Diener, Novak and even Merritt. When Diener left, we still had Novak and a highly touted freshman class. When Novak left, we still had the Amigos. When the Amigos left, we still had Hayward. When Hayward left, we still had Butler and DJO. When Butler left, we still had DJO and Crowder.

Now that DJO and Crowder have left, we have zero double-digit scorers returning and a good but hardly storied freshman class. The biggest concern is little proven perimeter shooting

Wow, thanks for ruining my lunch.

[GGGG]

Lockett was a double-digit scorer...just not for Marquette. 

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Aside from perhaps overstating Blue's ability to take over and underestimating Wilson and Lockett, this was a very fair assessment by the author.

Folks here like to point out that every time we thought it would be tough to replace a guy, we somehow have done it. But I don't think the task has been this difficult in many years, and this article illustrates why in cold, hard numbers.

When Wade left, we still had Diener, Novak and even Merritt. When Diener left, we still had Novak and a highly touted freshman class. When Novak left, we still had the Amigos. When the Amigos left, we still had Hayward. When Hayward left, we still had Butler and DJO. When Butler left, we still had DJO and Crowder.

Now that DJO and Crowder have left, we have zero double-digit scorers returning and a good but hardly storied freshman class. The biggest concern is little proven perimeter shooting; the 3-pointer is huge, huge, huge in college hoops.

We need Lockett and Wilson to be much bigger factors than the author suggests they will be, need Vander to mature significantly on and off the court, need Mayo to shoot WAY better than he did during most of the Big East season and need Junior to be a consistent floor leader. We need health from the big men, too. Can all those things happen? I sure as heck hope so!

I think there are bigger holes than most years, but the guys at MU right now have a lot of upside, and the workload can be distributed. You have 4 guys who can fill DJO and Crowder's roles.

I don't think anybody on this year's roster needs to be all-american for MU to be successful. If every player gets a little better, and the new guys can fill some roles, they will be middle of the pack Big East.

If a couple of players take big jumps, they could be upper level big east.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Lockett was a double-digit scorer...just not for Marquette. 

Your guy Jake Thomas is a two-time double digit scorer as well 

[GGGG]

Your guy Jake Thomas is a two-time double digit scorer as well 

Well played.

[MU82]

Lockett was a double-digit scorer...just not for Marquette. 

Correct. I said "returning." I'm hoping he repeats his double-digit ways now that he's at a superior school!

[jesmu84]

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/8360367/marquette-golden-eagles-2012-13-countdown-madness-preview-ncb

This looks to be a similar column, but any insiders want to share?

[bilsu]

There are only two things I am worried about. Injuries including full recovery from last year's injuries and who will step up to make the clutch shot. The team is deep with talent as long as everyone is healthy. There were many close games the last two years where either DJO or Crowder or sometimes both would hit timely threes. Of course Crowder's shot to beat Washington was huge. If Crowder missed that shot and we lose. Norfolk St. hits their shot at the end of the game and we lose. The last shots play into a few games every year and that can often determine the season. For example three years ago MU won three straight overtime road games due largely to Butler. Lose anyone of those and we might not of made NCAA tournament that year. Success can be a very fine line.

[Lennys Tap]

Folks here like to point out that every time we thought it would be tough to replace a guy, we somehow have done it. But I don't think the task has been this difficult in many years, and this article illustrates why in cold, hard numbers.

When Wade left, we still had Diener, Novak and even Merritt. When Diener left, we still had Novak and a highly touted freshman class. When Novak left, we still had the Amigos. When the Amigos left, we still had Hayward. When Hayward left, we still had Butler and DJO. When Butler left, we still had DJO and Crowder.

Now that DJO and Crowder have left, we have zero double-digit scorers returning and a good but hardly storied freshman class. The biggest concern is little proven perimeter shooting; the 3-pointer is huge, huge, huge in college hoops.

We need Lockett and Wilson to be much bigger factors than the author suggests they will be, need Vander to mature significantly on and off the court, need Mayo to shoot WAY better than he did during most of the Big East season and need Junior to be a consistent floor leader. We need health from the big men, too. Can all those things happen? I sure as heck hope so!

When Wade (top 50 of all time guy) left, so did Robert Jackson (4/5* center, All SEC as a freshman). Even with Diener, Novak and Merritt we had little (real) size (Novak played small) depth or athleticism. Not surprising we were sentenced to 2 years of NIT until the Amigos arrived. Conversely, this year's team had size at every position, depth and lots of athletes. It will be difficult replacing Jae and Darius offensively, but we'll be bigger, more athletic and better defensively. We'll miss the "X Factor" brought by Crowder, but I still think we'll be very solid.

[AZWarrior]

who will step up to make the clutch shot.

I'm not worried about this - we have two choices here.  Gardner and Lockett.  Gardner is offensively effective and always wants the ball.  Lockett sounds like a prime-timer.

I am concerned about outside shooting, however.

[jsglow]

We've discussed this in the past.  I wonder if Jake gets 5 minutes a game for the sole purpose of hitting 2 three point shots.  I suppose this comes down to his defensive play and the 3 point shooting from Lockett, Blue, Mayo, etc.

[bilsu]

I'm not worried about this - we have two choices here.  Gardner and Lockett.  Gardner is offensively effective and always wants the ball.  Lockett sounds like a prime-timer.

I am concerned about outside shooting, however.

I know we have players who will take it. However, certain players are good under pressure, while other players are not. We do not know if any of our players are tough enough to actually hit a last second shot.

[Otule's Glass Eye]

I'm not worried about this - we have two choices here.  Gardner and Lockett.  Gardner is offensively effective and always wants the ball.  Lockett sounds like a prime-timer.

I am concerned about outside shooting, however.

Dont forget Thomas. He's the guy you bring into situations that call for a game tying or game winning 3.

[cheebs09]

Aside from perhaps overstating Blue's ability to take over and underestimating Wilson and Lockett, this was a very fair assessment by the author.

Folks here like to point out that every time we thought it would be tough to replace a guy, we somehow have done it. But I don't think the task has been this difficult in many years, and this article illustrates why in cold, hard numbers.

When Wade left, we still had Diener, Novak and even Merritt. When Diener left, we still had Novak and a highly touted freshman class. When Novak left, we still had the Amigos. When the Amigos left, we still had Hayward. When Hayward left, we still had Butler and DJO. When Butler left, we still had DJO and Crowder.

Now that DJO and Crowder have left, we have zero double-digit scorers returning and a good but hardly storied freshman class. The biggest concern is little proven perimeter shooting; the 3-pointer is huge, huge, huge in college hoops.

We need Lockett and Wilson to be much bigger factors than the author suggests they will be, need Vander to mature significantly on and off the court, need Mayo to shoot WAY better than he did during most of the Big East season and need Junior to be a consistent floor leader. We need health from the big men, too. Can all those things happen? I sure as heck hope so!

We have said this every year though, at least since I've been on this board. We look back and say we had those guys, but that's only because they stepped up. I don't think anyone expected Crowder to be BEPOY going into the year. Possibly second team, borderline first, I think so, but not the top guy.

I really think we will look back and say Jamil Wilson was the guy to step up this year. He stepped up last year with injuries and I can see him taking another step forward. He oozes athleticism and potential. We have a lot of guys that ooze potential, and if most can live up to it, we can be very good. However, reaching that potential is much easier said than done.

[ATL MU Warrior]

I know we have players who will take it. However, certain players are good under pressure, while other players are not. We do not know if any of our players are tough enough to actually hit a last second shot.

But you never *know* that until they actually do it.  Having someone or multiple someones willing to take the shot is the first step. 

[wojosdojo]

When Wade left, we still had Diener, Novak and even Merritt. When Diener left, we still had Novak and a highly touted freshman class. When Novak left, we still had the Amigos. When the Amigos left, we still had Hayward. When Hayward left, we still had Butler and DJO. When Butler left, we still had DJO and Crowder.

How many times have I heard this? At first it was how the heck is Lazar going to replace the three amigos? Then it was how the heck is Jimmy going to replace A great leader and player in Lazar? We've heard it over and over, guys will just have to step up.

[MU82]

How many times have I heard this? At first it was how the heck is Lazar going to replace the three amigos? Then it was how the heck is Jimmy going to replace A great leader and player in Lazar? We've heard it over and over, guys will just have to step up.

That is my point. We have heard it every year, but there really were outstanding, proven replacements returning every year. What I'm saying now is that we don't really have that. We can argue that Vander, Junior, Gardner, Mayo and Jamil are "proven," but it would be a stretch (and an inaccurate one, IMHO) to say any or all are proven the way Diener, Lazar, Jimmy, etc. were.

Again, I'm hoping these five, plus Lockett and maybe a surprise contributor do step up. But either you can hit 3-pointers or you can't. So it's lots of hope, lots of we'll-see.

[MU82]

When Wade (top 50 of all time guy) left, so did Robert Jackson (4/5* center, All SEC as a freshman). Even with Diener, Novak and Merritt we had little (real) size (Novak played small) depth or athleticism. Not surprising we were sentenced to 2 years of NIT until the Amigos arrived. Conversely, this year's team had size at every position, depth and lots of athletes. It will be difficult replacing Jae and Darius offensively, but we'll be bigger, more athletic and better defensively. We'll miss the "X Factor" brought by Crowder, but I still think we'll be very solid.

When I think of the term "X Factor" in sports, I think of a guy maybe on the periphery who might surprise a little. Like, say, "Taj Gibson is the Bulls' X Factor."

Jae was not the X Factor last season. Jae was a star. He was the best player on a Sweet 16 team and the conference player of the year.

For a little while, Mayo was our X Factor, and maybe Gardner and/or Jamil were, too, at times.

This year's team appears to be loaded with X Factors. Here's hoping at least one of them emerges to be a star. Or at least star-ish!

[Lennys Tap]

When I think of the term "X Factor" in sports, I think of a guy maybe on the periphery who might surprise a little. Like, say, "Taj Gibson is the Bulls' X Factor."

Jae was not the X Factor last season. Jae was a star. He was the best player on a Sweet 16 team and the conference player of the year.

For a little while, Mayo was our X Factor, and maybe Gardner and/or Jamil were, too, at times.

This year's team appears to be loaded with X Factors. Here's hoping at least one of them emerges to be a star. Or at least star-ish!

For me, X Factor is the "Je ne sais qua" that turns really good players into stars -game changers. Hard to define, but you know it when you see it. Jae had it in spades.

[tower912]

A year ago, we were worried about whether Jae could stay out of trouble, lead, and defend as well as Butler.   Remember how buzz started EWilliams toward the end of 10-11 in order to keep Jae out of foul trouble?  We were worried about the turnover machine that was DJO.   We were worried about Cadougan starting at the point.    We were wondering where Blue was going to find his minutes because we assumed the starting frontcourt would be Jae, Jamil, and Otule.   
     Now we are wondering who is going to emerge as the leader, as the go-to guy.   It will work itself out. 

[GGGG]

I'm not worried about this - we have two choices here.  Gardner and Lockett.  Gardner is offensively effective and always wants the ball.  Lockett sounds like a prime-timer.

I am concerned about outside shooting, however.

I am no more worried about it than I was last year.  DJO was a decent, but not stellar, 3 point shooter.  Jae was pretty pedestrian.  They both hoisted a ton of shots however.  

I think Mayo is going to improve.  I think Blue is going to be better...but still not great.  But I think the key is that Lockett is enough of a threat to keep defenses honest.  He improved significantly each year at ASU.  He didn't shoot many of them however, but for this offense to work, you don't necessarily need to shoot and make a bunch of threes, but you need enough of a threat to open up driving lanes.

[GGGG]

I'm not worried about this - we have two choices here.  Gardner and Lockett.  Gardner is offensively effective and always wants the ball.  Lockett sounds like a prime-timer.

I am concerned about outside shooting, however.

I'm not worried about this because there really is no such thing as clutch shooting.  On average, basketball players do not perform any better in "clutch" situations than they do at any other time of a game.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

That is my point. We have heard it every year, but there really were outstanding, proven replacements returning every year. What I'm saying now is that we don't really have that. We can argue that Vander, Junior, Gardner, Mayo and Jamil are "proven," but it would be a stretch (and an inaccurate one, IMHO) to say any or all are proven the way Diener, Lazar, Jimmy, etc. were.

Again, I'm hoping these five, plus Lockett and maybe a surprise contributor do step up. But either you can hit 3-pointers or you can't. So it's lots of hope, lots of we'll-see.

I agree, however, we are replacing the Big East POY, and a guy that could have been Big East POY.

Bigger shoes (than normal) to fill.

With this said, MU has good depth and upside. If everybody gets a little better (which is realistic), I think they can be good. If somebody has a breakout year (like Jae last year), they will be really good.

Shooting is really my only concern. Some of the guys have decent %'s, but have not shot the volume that Jae and DJO did.

Need some outside shooting to keep the driving lanes open and keep teams from swarming Gardner (which is going to happen more this year).

[bilsu]

The problem with last year's team is that we became to much of a two man team. A balanced team is better. We have plently of scoring options and different players will step up every game. This makes it harder for the other team to game plan.

[lab_warrior]

We have said this every year though, at least since I've been on this board. We look back and say we had those guys, but that's only because they stepped up. I don't think anyone expected Crowder to be BEPOY going into the year. Possibly second team, borderline first, I think so, but not the top guy.

I really think we will look back and say Jamil Wilson was the guy to step up this year. He stepped up last year with injuries and I can see him taking another step forward. He oozes athleticism and potential. We have a lot of guys that ooze potential, and if most can live up to it, we can be very good. However, reaching that potential is much easier said than done.

I think we have this thread every pre-season; frequently enough so that we can add it to (think it's from Buzz Spillproff Chiclet Cup's???) the checklist:


Season checklist
(x) Concern about members of current roster playing well & replacing drafted/graduated teammates 
() Non-conference near-miss against inferior opponent (sky falls on Scoop)
( ) Non-conference stinker to inferior opponent (more sky-falling)
( ) Non-conference loss on big stage convinces board MU not ready for Big East
( ) Unmentionable conference loss
( ) Road Game we weren't supposed to win
( ) Late surge
( ) Top-half Big East Finish


I think we have PLENTY of bullets in the chamber in terms of defending, scoring, and rebounding.  This might be the best mix and match group Buzz has had.  We'll be able to play as fast/slow, big/small as we want. 

And I agree, Jamil Wilson gets my vote in terms of "stepping up" into that alpha dog role this season.  Wilson, Lockett, and Gardner, IMO.

[boyonthedock]

Gardner will be a beast this year. Probably the best big man season I will have seen since following Marquette.