Author Topic: Big East Polls, NET Rankings and Team Sheets (Read 108993 times)

MU82 · « **Reply #450 on:** February 01, 2022, 12:17:44 AM »

Quote from: DoctorV on January 31, 2022, 09:01:19 PM

So Marquette starts the month with a NET of 83 after the Creighton loss and finishes at 28.

A NET gain of 55 spots. Unbelievable!

Exactly as I predicted!

(Or something like that.)

muwarrior69 · « **Reply #451 on:** February 01, 2022, 08:38:17 AM »

Quote from: MU82 on February 01, 2022, 12:17:44 AM

Exactly as I predicted!

(Or something like that.)

The Nostradamus of Scoop.

lawdog77 · « **Reply #452 on:** February 01, 2022, 09:02:02 AM »

Sending up the bat signal for the bean counters.

It's been mentioned that Iowa's NET seems to disregard Q1, and that their margin of victory is what puts them so high. Is that the same thing for Houston, since they have as many q1 wins as my son's 4th grade basketball team?

Oh and UNC and Washington St seem high.

Herman Cain · « **Reply #453 on:** February 01, 2022, 09:02:51 AM »

Big East NET rankings as of games of January 31, 2022
New Old
4   5   Villanova
16   16   UConn
20   20   Xavier
28   28   Marquette
30   30   Providence
43   42   Seton Hall
73   73   Creighton
92   91   St. John's
109   108   DePaul
132   132   Butler
196   199   Georgetown
February 1 Team Sheets. Marquette is 28
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2022/net-teamsheets

TAMU, Knower of Ball · « **Reply #454 on:** February 01, 2022, 09:23:05 AM »

Quote from: lawdog77 on February 01, 2022, 09:02:02 AM

Sending up the bat signal for the bean counters.

It's been mentioned that Iowa's NET seems to disregard Q1, and that their margin of victory is what puts them so high. Is that the same thing for Houston, since they have as many q1 wins as my son's 4th grade basketball team?

Oh and UNC and Washington St seem high.

Correct. Houston has lost both of their Q1 games (which are both Q1A games) by a combined margin of 3. Meanwhile they have three Q2A wins by an average margin of 18. They have also won 5/7 of their Q3 games by double digits with 4/5 being by 17 or more. Their average margin of victory in their 7 Q4 games is 35.7, which includes beating #228 Bryant by 67.

Essentially, Houston has kept it close in their only two meaningful games and obliterated everyone else they played. Makes for a great NET score but they are probably a little overvalued.

North Carolina, more of the same. They are 0-6 in Q1 games including some really bad blowouts. But they are 15-0 in Q2/Q3/Q4 and they won 14/15 by double digits.

Washington State is carried by by 5 Q3 wins that they won by at least 17 points and a 16 point road win over Utah. Blowing out meh but not bad teams can cover a lot of flaws....like their two Q3 losses and Q4 loss to #216 Eastern Washington. Still eyeballing their resume, they still seem a little high.

I can't see Washington State making the tourney without a lot better performance going forward. North Carolina shouldn't with 0 Q1 wins but they may get in due to soft bubble and name recognition. Houston will deservingly get a high seed but I think it will be in the 3/4 range, not 1/2.

brewcity77 · « **Reply #455 on:** February 01, 2022, 12:30:19 PM »

I moved Houston up to the 3-line because their metrics are simply so good. Historically, especially when it comes to the Top-16 Reveal, the Selection Committee rewards teams that are in the top-16 of NET (usually no more than two outliers). Houston has the win profile of a team on the 7 line, but even their resume based metrics are both top-15, and they're top-5 everywhere else. They won't be a 1 and I can't see a 2 without any Q1 wins, but they'll be up there.
For North Carolina, I have them in with some comfort because they have nothing bad. Once you get down to the end of the bubble, everyone has pretty bad blemishes.
Washington State was the highest NET team that I didn't really consider. One look at their resume and it's clear it's just beating up bad teams and nothing of quality.
One more note, there's a lot of talk about an 8-bid Big 12. I have 8 now, but I don't see it lasting. Honestly, 6 is more likely than 8 (though I'd guess 7 make it). The problem is teams are going to lose games, and no matter how good the wins, if you only have 16-17 wins, you aren't getting in. Oklahoma will be an underdog in 7 of their remaining 9 games and likely need to go at 6-3 to feel comfortable. West Virginia is an underdog in 9 of 10 and needs to go at least 5-5 to feel comfortable. 8 bids is unlikely.

TallTitan34 · « **Reply #456 on:** February 01, 2022, 12:52:16 PM »

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 01, 2022, 12:30:19 PM

Just updated my own S-Curve, a few thoughts on that...

I moved Houston up to the 3-line because their metrics are simply so good. Historically, especially when it comes to the Top-16 Reveal, the Selection Committee rewards teams that are in the top-16 of NET (usually no more than two outliers). Houston has the win profile of a team on the 7 line, but even their resume based metrics are both top-15, and they're top-5 everywhere else. They won't be a 1 and I can't see a 2 without any Q1 wins, but they'll be up there.
For North Carolina, I have them in with some comfort because they have nothing bad. Once you get down to the end of the bubble, everyone has pretty bad blemishes.
Washington State was the highest NET team that I didn't really consider. One look at their resume and it's clear it's just beating up bad teams and nothing of quality.
One more note, there's a lot of talk about an 8-bid Big 12. I have 8 now, but I don't see it lasting. Honestly, 6 is more likely than 8 (though I'd guess 7 make it). The problem is teams are going to lose games, and no matter how good the wins, if you only have 16-17 wins, you aren't getting in. Oklahoma will be an underdog in 7 of their remaining 9 games and likely need to go at 6-3 to feel comfortable. West Virginia is an underdog in 9 of 10 and needs to go at least 5-5 to feel comfortable. 8 bids is unlikely.

Where do you have Iowa brew?

brewcity77 · « **Reply #457 on:** February 01, 2022, 01:03:53 PM »

Quote from: TallTitan34 on February 01, 2022, 12:52:16 PM

Where do you have Iowa brew?

11-seed, Last Four byes. Not enough substance at the top of the resume, though their NET is high enough that they should feel pretty secure. They would've stuck on the 10 line, maybe even moved up to a 9 if not for the Penn State loss last night. Saw that and cringed a little.

TallTitan34 · « **Reply #458 on:** February 01, 2022, 01:06:23 PM »

Quote from: brewcity77 on February 01, 2022, 01:03:53 PM

11-seed, Last Four byes. Not enough substance at the top of the resume, though their NET is high enough that they should feel pretty secure. They would've stuck on the 10 line, maybe even moved up to a 9 if not for the Penn State loss last night. Saw that and cringed a little.

Thanks!

Sorry, I just noticed your post here: https://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2022/02/non-con-check-in.html?m=1

TallTitan34 · « **Reply #459 on:** February 02, 2022, 07:32:37 AM »

Up to 27 in NET.

https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-net-rankings

TAMU, Knower of Ball · « **Reply #460 on:** February 02, 2022, 08:45:29 AM »

Thank you Ole Miss for winning and Iowa State for losing.

Bonnies were getting blown out at home by Davidson but they went on a run at the end to make it a respectable 5 point loss. They still dropped back to Q3 land. I don't know what happened to that team, I've watched them a couple of times since Charleston and they look nothing like the team we played.

The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole · « **Reply #461 on:** February 02, 2022, 08:47:58 AM »

Marquette was their Super Bowl.

TallTitan34 · « **Reply #462 on:** February 02, 2022, 09:05:42 AM »

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 02, 2022, 08:45:29 AM

I don't know what happened to that team,

See attached minutes per game. I'm guessing they are all gassed.

Juan Anderson's Mixtape · « **Reply #463 on:** February 02, 2022, 09:14:56 AM »

Quote from: Fluffy Blue Monster on February 02, 2022, 08:47:58 AM

Marquette was their Super Bowl.

Hang a banner!

PGsHeroes32 · « **Reply #464 on:** February 02, 2022, 09:16:21 AM »

Kstate needs to win tonight

Herman Cain · « **Reply #465 on:** February 02, 2022, 09:27:38 AM »

Big East NET rankings as of games of February 1, 2022
New Old
5   4   Villanova
17   16   UConn
18   20   Xavier
27   28   Marquette
29   30   Providence
41   43   Seton Hall
65   73   Creighton
96   92   St. John's
110   109   DePaul
132   132   Butler
203   196   Georgetown
February 2 Team Sheets . Marquette is 27
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2020/net-nitty-team

MU Fan in Connecticut · « **Reply #466 on:** February 02, 2022, 09:31:19 AM »

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 02, 2022, 08:45:29 AM

Thank you Ole Miss for winning and Iowa State for losing.

Bonnies were getting blown out at home by Davidson but they went on a run at the end to make it a respectable 5 point loss. They still dropped back to Q3 land. I don't know what happened to that team, I've watched them a couple of times since Charleston and they look nothing like the team we played.

Where is SBU19?

Dr. Blackheart · « **Reply #467 on:** February 02, 2022, 09:39:08 AM »

Quote from: TAMU Eagle on February 02, 2022, 08:45:29 AM

Thank you Ole Miss for winning and Iowa State for losing.

Bonnies were getting blown out at home by Davidson but they went on a run at the end to make it a respectable 5 point loss. They still dropped back to Q3 land. I don't know what happened to that team, I've watched them a couple of times since Charleston and they look nothing like the team we played.

Too bad we didn't get Boise in Charleston.