NCAA Dance Thread

[rocky_warrior]

That was the heart of my semi-serious beef. The video itself included an extended plug for KenPom at the front. It was part of the content — not an actual ad.

Hah!  I didn't even watch far enough in to see that. 

[Vander Blue Man Group]

Why the name calling? Our NET ranks are similar with X:41 MU:43, we split the season, Quad 1 record similar with MU 5-7 and X 5-8. Over all records MU 19-12 and X 18-13. If they beat Butler the records would be identical. The committee could have easily picked X over MU while picking Rutgers, Indiana and ND. All I am saying is that the metrics don't mean much as to who is in or out. Indiana and Notre Dame have more name recognition which is why I believe they got in.

I didn’t call you a name. I’m wondering if there’s another explanation for your post. It’s just completely devoid of any logic whatsoever. Marquette was nowhere near the bubble and apparently Xavier wasn’t that close to the field. There’s literally zero way Marquette was going to fall out of the field based on a different result in one game.

[Juan Anderson's Mixtape]

The two big flaws in Xavier's resume:

Zero Q1A wins.
Two Q3 losses.

Marquette had four Q1A wins and no Q3 losses.  So even though the records and metrics were similar, Marquette had a much stronger resume.

[Dr. Blackheart]

That was the heart of my semi-serious beef. The video itself included an extended plug for KenPom at the front. It was part of the content — not an actual ad.

Yeah, he went a little long sourcing KPom. I just slid by it.

[MU82]

And again, X has ZERO reason to beef. They completely collapsed down the stretch and yet they still had a chance to take a major step toward saving their NCAAT chances but they couldn't make a freakin' FT and their best player had a major brain fart that basically cost them the game.

They were solidly in the tournament a few weeks ago. It was entirely in their hands. They slowly pissed it away and they ultimately blew it. Period.

[MuggsyB]

Spot-on.  If you go 13-29 from the line you cannot complain about anything. 

I don't like the play-in games but if they have to exist, I think it would be much better if none of the four teams were from Power 6 conferences..  The most exciting thing about the tournament, especially for the casual viewers, are David's beating Goliath's in the early rounds.  So let the teams that don't get in very often occupy the 65-68 spots.  No one wants to see crappy teams from the B14 or ACC with golden tickets. 

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

...and X was not solidly ahead of 12 teams like Indiana, ND and Rutgers? Explain that to me. Please stop with the name calling. I'm really trying to be respectful.

You claimed that Marquette was lucky that X lost to Butler in the BET because they may have been left out of the NCAAT if that hadn't happened. The loss to Butler keeping X out isn't the part people are reacting to, it's the Marquette would be knocked out part.

Maybe you don't know this, but when the selection committee does seeding, they use something called an s-curve where they literally rank all the teams from 1-68. They ranked us as a 9 seed, which means that at worst, they saw us as the 36th best team in the country. Behind us there were:

37th-40th (10 seeds): Davidson, San Francisco, Miami (FL), Loyola (IL)
41st-43rd (non-play-in 11 seeds): Virginia Tech (Auto-Bid), Iowa State, Michigan
44th-45th (play-in 11 seeds): Rutgers, Notre Dame
46th-47th (play-in 12 seeds): Wyoming, Indiana

That's where the at large bids stop and the NIT bids begin. The committee further ranked below us (not including the auto-bids in the NCAAT):

48th-51st (NIT 1 seeds): Dayton, Oklahoma, SMU, TAMU
52nd-55th (NIT 2 seeds): North Texas, BYU, Wake Forest, Xavier

So the absolute closest Marquette and Xavier were on the s-curve together was 36th (worst 9 seed) and 52nd (best NIT 2 seed). You are correct that beating Butler would have raised Xavier on the s-curve. I personally doubt that it would have raised them to 47th to make the tournament, let alone 36th to pass Marquette, but let's just say that the Butler win was that valuable and they jumped all the way to 36th. Marquette doesn't get bounced out of the tournament. Instead, they fall all the way to...37th making them a 10 seed (assuming we are the worst 9 seed). The team that would have been bumped out of the tournament was either Wyoming or Indiana as the last two teams to make it into the NCAAT this year.

So, no, Marquette does not need to be thankful that Xavier lost to Butler. Indiana and Wyoming may need to be thankful for it, though I personally doubt it.

[Newsdreams]

You claimed that Marquette was lucky that X lost to Butler in the BET because they may have been left out of the NCAAT if that hadn't happened. The loss to Butler keeping X out isn't the part people are reacting to, it's the Marquette would be knocked out part.

Maybe you don't know this, but when the selection committee does seeding, they use something called an s-curve where they literally rank all the teams from 1-68. They ranked us as a 9 seed, which means that at worst, they saw us as the 36th best team in the country. Behind us there were:

37th-40th (10 seeds): Davidson, San Francisco, Miami (FL), Loyola (IL)
41st-43rd (non-play-in 11 seeds): Virginia Tech (Auto-Bid), Iowa State, Michigan
44th-45th (play-in 11 seeds): Rutgers, Notre Dame
46th-47th (play-in 12 seeds): Wyoming, Indiana

That's where the at large bids stop and the NIT bids begin. The committee further ranked below us (not including the auto-bids in the NCAAT):

48th-51st (NIT 1 seeds): Dayton, Oklahoma, SMU, TAMU
52nd-55th (NIT 2 seeds): North Texas, BYU, Wake Forest, Xavier

So the absolute closest Marquette and Xavier were on the s-curve together was 36th (worst 9 seed) and 52nd (best NIT 2 seed). You are correct that beating Butler would have raised Xavier on the s-curve. I personally doubt that it would have raised them to 47th to make the tournament, let alone 36th to pass Marquette, but let's just say that the Butler win was that valuable and they jumped all the way to 36th. Marquette doesn't get bounced out of the tournament. Instead, they fall all the way to...37th making them a 10 seed (assuming we are the worst 9 seed). The team that would have been bumped out of the tournament was either Wyoming or Indiana as the last two teams to make it into the NCAAT this year.

So, no, Marquette does not need to be thankful that Xavier lost to Butler. Indiana and Wyoming may need to be thankful for it, though I personally doubt it.

TAMU I don't think he will understand how it works.

[DegenerateDish]

Norlander reporting some teams (Colorado State in particular) are having trouble getting information from the NCAA on their travel schedule. CSU still doesn’t have a confirmed flight.

NCAA pays for team charters for the tournament.

[muwarrior69]

You claimed that Marquette was lucky that X lost to Butler in the BET because they may have been left out of the NCAAT if that hadn't happened. The loss to Butler keeping X out isn't the part people are reacting to, it's the Marquette would be knocked out part.

Maybe you don't know this, but when the selection committee does seeding, they use something called an s-curve where they literally rank all the teams from 1-68. They ranked us as a 9 seed, which means that at worst, they saw us as the 36th best team in the country. Behind us there were:

37th-40th (10 seeds): Davidson, San Francisco, Miami (FL), Loyola (IL)
41st-43rd (non-play-in 11 seeds): Virginia Tech (Auto-Bid), Iowa State, Michigan
44th-45th (play-in 11 seeds): Rutgers, Notre Dame
46th-47th (play-in 12 seeds): Wyoming, Indiana

That's where the at large bids stop and the NIT bids begin. The committee further ranked below us (not including the auto-bids in the NCAAT):

48th-51st (NIT 1 seeds): Dayton, Oklahoma, SMU, TAMU
52nd-55th (NIT 2 seeds): North Texas, BYU, Wake Forest, Xavier

So the absolute closest Marquette and Xavier were on the s-curve together was 36th (worst 9 seed) and 52nd (best NIT 2 seed). You are correct that beating Butler would have raised Xavier on the s-curve. I personally doubt that it would have raised them to 47th to make the tournament, let alone 36th to pass Marquette, but let's just say that the Butler win was that valuable and they jumped all the way to 36th. Marquette doesn't get bounced out of the tournament. Instead, they fall all the way to...37th making them a 10 seed (assuming we are the worst 9 seed). The team that would have been bumped out of the tournament was either Wyoming or Indiana as the last two teams to make it into the NCAAT this year.

So, no, Marquette does not need to be thankful that Xavier lost to Butler. Indiana and Wyoming may need to be thankful for it, though I personally doubt it.

Thanks for the explanation. Perhaps next season we should use the s-curve and not just NET ranks as measurement where will be in relation to all the other teams. Also how is that s-curve calculated?

[brewcity77]

Thanks for the explanation. Perhaps next season we should use the s-curve and not just NET ranks as measurement where will be in relation to all the other teams. Also how is that s-curve calculated?

No one sees the official S-Curve until Selection Sunday. And the S-Curve isn't calculated, it's how the Selection Committee ordered the teams after looking at all the data.

[4everwarriors]

Marquette over UNC; Colgate over RED. Perfection!

Play da game, knot da name, hey?

[brewcity77]

This is likely the cause of the confusion. Shaka hasn't won a tournament game since 2013 when VCU beat Akron by 46.

He's had some crazy losses since then. In fact, every tournament loss since 2013 has been a crazy ending.

2014 - Lost to SFA in OT. Up four in regulation with 5 seconds left, gave up a 4 point play after fouling a 3 point shooter.
2015 - missed a floater at the buzzer, lost by 3 in OT to Ohio State
2016 - tied the game with under 5 seconds left, lost on a banked in half-court buzzer beater.
2018 - came back from down 13 against Nevada, had the lead with five seconds left, went to OT, lost.
2021 - Lost to ACU on two free throws with one second remaining.

We might be in for a barnburner on Thursday.

It's not just Shaka's recent tourney history pointing to a nailbiter, check out his history against UNC:

2015: Javan Felix hits a jumper at the buzzer and Texas wins 84-82.

2018: North Carolina tries to rally late but comes up short as Texas wins 92-89.

2020: Matt Coleman's step back jumper with 0.1 left allows Texas to win 69-67.

Suffice to say, their fans are probably tired of losing close games to Shaka.

[MUDPT]

Norlander reporting some teams (Colorado State in particular) are having trouble getting information from the NCAA on their travel schedule. CSU still doesn’t have a confirmed flight.

NCAA pays for team charters for the tournament.

Found out this week that the NCAA doesn't find practice facilities for the teams, besides the 45 minute open practice the day before the games.  Teams have to find their own other practice times and facilities.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Thanks for the explanation. Perhaps next season we should use the s-curve and not just NET ranks as measurement where will be in relation to all the other teams. Also how is that s-curve calculated?

The s-curve isn't calculated. The committee discusses and as a group decides where teams belong on the s-curve. The NET is one measure of several that the committee looks at when judging teams. Xavier's resume was significantly worse than Marquette's.

[lawdog77]

The s-curve isn't calculated. The committee discusses and as a group decides where teams belong on the s-curve. The NET is one measure of several that the committee looks at when judging teams. Xavier's resume was significantly worse than Marquette's.

Every ranking system has some sort of flaws, but when you put them all together, the average is a pretty good indicator. I think its called wisdom of crowds.

[Its DJOver]

Happy National “wait, what channel is TruTv again?” Day.

[MU82]

Thanks for the explanation. Perhaps next season we should use the s-curve and not just NET ranks as measurement where will be in relation to all the other teams. Also how is that s-curve calculated?

Numerous observers put together and regularly update NCAAT s-curves, including our own brew. Very easy to find if you want to look.

[MarquetteMike1977]

Liked the Selection Show used the AL coined phrase Big Dance in Billboards on the show.
Also Tom Crean 5/9 Big Dance MU Years. Tom Crean 4/14 Big Dance After MU Years. Buzz 5/6 Big Dance MU Years. Buzz 3/8 Big Dance After MU Years.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Also how is that s-curve calculated?

S(x) =min+ (max-min) * {(1 /(1+exp(-k(x-x0)))^a}

[Pakuni]

Making conference winners play in the First Four games sucks. Put them in the 64 and send the last eight at-large teams to Dayton.

[Mr. Nielsen]

Making conference winners play in the First Four games sucks. Put them in the 64 and send the last eight at-large teams to Dayton.

Here. Here!

[QPSS70]

DFW is the fourth largest market in the country with over 7.5 million people.  I live and work right next to Ft. Worth and the city has a much smaller town feel than many of the large cities I've visited.  DFW is really spread out, just like everything else in Texas.  The downtown Ft. Worth area has a nice, slow vibe to it.  It's nowhere near the hustle and bustle of Dallas.

Brad - any Fort Worth advice for visitors from the north?  Places to see, things to do, recommended dining establishments, especially downtown, places to avoid? 

The Sheraton Fort Worth Downtown Hotel is the Marquette hotel, for those who didn't get the emails today.  Team sendoff set for 1:30 p.m. Thursday.  Shuttle buses to Dickie's Arena, but it looks like it's only a mile walk. 

[Ardmore Mug]

NM

[rocky_warrior]

Ahhhhh   Send-off was 1:15 pm TODAY...  Leaving 1:15 on Thurs for a 7pm game would be cutting it close ! ! !  lol 

???

First, the game is at 3:30pm (double check your Thursday schedule).

Second, I have no doubt they'll leave their hotel at about 1:30pm on Thursday with a send-off party  to get to the arena in plenty of time.