Can't afford to only hold serve

[MarquetteDano]

I was perusing our results this year and something stood out:  Marquette really doesn't have a lot of big road wins this year.  There is the Badger win, which is big no doubt.  The next big win is Nova, which has a 105 RPI/87 Pomeroy at this time.

I know there has been a lot of talk about some really high seeds for the NCAA tourney (I think I have seen some #3 seeds bandied about).  If we want that kind of seed we absolutely have to win one of our remaining road games (maybe two if we want that #3 seed) as they are all against good teams.  Can't afford to just hold serve at home.

UConn:  21 RPI/36 Pomeroy
WVU:    41 RPI/39 Pomeroy (and going higher after win at Pitt)
Cincy:   94 RPI/41 Pomeroy

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think if MU wins four of the last five and first game in the Big East Tourney (assuming top 3 finish), they'll be much closer to a 2 seed than a 4.

[MUWarrior11]

I think if MU wins four of the last five and first game in the Big East Tourney (assuming top 3 finish), they'll be much closer to a 2 seed than a 4.

Can't agree with you on that one. I think the #1 and #2 seeds are virtually locked up: Syracuse, KU, Mizzou, Duke, UNC, Mich St, Ohio St, Kentucky. Yes, there's 3 weeks of hoops left, but I don't see us passing any of those teams.  Furthermore, we'd be battling the likes of Georgetown, Baylor and others for a 3 seed.

In the scenario you proposed, we would be a 7-loss team. Every year we put our blue and gold shades on and think we'll be seeded higher than we actually are. This talk of a two seed is a perfect example.

Hope I'm wrong, but I think we'll end up a 4. Haven't been higher than a 6 seed since '03, so not too shabby.

[CTWarrior]

I was perusing our results this year and something stood out:  Marquette really doesn't have a lot of big road wins this year.  There is the Badger win, which is big no doubt.  The next big win is Nova, which has a 105 RPI/87 Pomeroy at this time.

Agree, which is why I'm not convinced about this team being a top 4 seed quality team just yet.  We've played 5 NCAA/NIT quality teams on the road, and have won only one of the games.  We have beaten the 2 bubble/NIT teams we've faced on neutral court.  I'd be veryy happy if we manage 3-2 down the stretch.

[jsglow]

Almost no chance MU sees a 2 or can win enough to get there.  I think we've settled right about where we really are as a team and that's a Top 15 ranked, Sweet 16 bound club.  Could we overperform? Sure.  Could we underperform? Of course.

But think back just one year when we were doing the math that Seton Hall and Cincy are doing right now. All is good in Warrior land.

[MUMac]

Agree, which is why I'm not convinced about this team being a top 4 seed quality team just yet.  We've played 5 NCAA/NIT quality teams on the road, and have won only one of the games.  We have beaten the 2 bubble/NIT teams we've faced on neutral court.  I'd be veryy happy if we manage 3-2 down the stretch.

We tend to be myopic in our view, because we are so close to MU.  When I read the comment above, I wondered how the other teams above MU fare in the same categories you drew.  I don't know, but suspect MU may not be much different than others.

Now, there is a lot of cricket left to play, as you state.  If MU wins 2 of 3 on the road, or 3 on the road, that changes the dynamics significantly. 

[Benny B]

If Sweet 16 is the goal, then you do everything you can to win out and claim a 2 or 3.  But it's unlikely they go the rest of the season without at least two more losses (three road games, G-Town, and the BET... that's a tall order for winning out).

Personally, I'm of the mindset that this is the year to make a run.  So I say, "screw it."  If they lose tomorrow, rest DG until the BET and just try to split the last four to go for the 6-seed instead.  Considering the fellow possible 3's at this point, I'd much rather take my chances with one of them in the third round, rather than have to deal with a 1-seed in the regional semis.  Let IU take down the 1-seed in the regional semis, and watch MU walk over TC en route to the Final Four.   Not only will we be living it up with some hurricanes on Bourbon St in a few weeks, but we'll all finally have closure and be able to move on from the whole "it's Indiana" thing.

#dreamroutetofinalfour:

Second Round - Marquette (6) vs. Harvard (11)
Third Round - vs. Florida (3)
Regional Semi - vs. Missouri (2)
Regional Final - vs. Indiana (4)

#andjustfortheheckofit

National Semis - vs. Louisville
National Final - vs. Syracuse

At that point, I think most of us could die happy Tuesday morning.

[MUWarrior11]

We play to win every game. Plain and simple. We don't intentionally try to become a 3 seed, to anticipate a good matchup with a 3 seed. We don't rest players so we lose games and avoid a 1 seed in an earlier round. You play to win.  Every game. Our players (and coaches) are competitors.  If DG is healthy, play him. If he isn't sit him. Pretty simple.

Buzz doesn't view this as "the year" to go "all in." That makes no sense.  Every year you try to win as many games as possible, become the highest seed possible, and then advance as far as possible in the tourney.

Aren't we over-analyzing a bit. Despite seeds, KenPom, computer rankings, matchups, power rankings, Cindarella stories and anything else, its still pretty damn simple- you try to score more points than the other team over 40 minutes, every time you take the court. No need to overthink our late season strategy.

[JWags85]

If by tourney time, we've fallen to a 6 seed, then it would absolutely be disappointment...

[jsglow]

#6 seed?  Rest DG until the NCAA? No way we settle. 

We play 110% to win every 4 minute stretch of basketball.  We fight for the next 'turkey' on every defensive possession.  We struggle for paint touches and assists on every basket.  And we see where the chips fall.  That is the only way MU succeeds.

[Sharpie]

We play to win every game. Plain and simple. We don't intentionally try to become a 3 seed, to anticipate a good matchup with a 3 seed. We don't rest players so we lose games and avoid a 1 seed in an earlier round. You play to win.  Every game. Our players (and coaches) are competitors.  If DG is healthy, play him. If he isn't sit him. Pretty simple.

Buzz doesn't view this as "the year" to go "all in." That makes no sense.  Every year you try to win as many games as possible, become the highest seed possible, and then advance as far as possible in the tourney.

Aren't we over-analyzing a bit. Despite seeds, KenPom, computer rankings, matchups, power rankings, Cindarella stories and anything else, its still pretty damn simple- you try to score more points than the other team over 40 minutes, every time you take the court. No need to overthink our late season strategy.

+1000

There's no way of "trying" to get a particular seed except for the best seed possible. You play to win every single game. Plain and simple to me.

[CTWarrior]

We play 110% to win every 4 minute stretch of basketball. 

Except the first one of each game, which have lost 11 straight times.

[TheGym]

Here are some road records vs. top 75 RPI

Road Records vs. Top 75 RPI

Ohio State 2-3
Duke 1-1
NC 1-2
Kansas 3-3
Kentucky 2-1
Missouri 3-1
Syracuse 2-1
Michigan State 3-4

Marquette 1-4

Baylor 3-2
Georgetown 2-2
Indiana 2-4
Michigan 1-5
Louisville 2-2
Murray State 1-0
UNLV 1-3
Wisconsin 3-3

Marquette is not great but quality road wins are definitely hard to come by for most teams (Duke and NC w/ only 1).  If they can get a win in the next three it will make things look better and in line with the rest of the teams looking for a 3 seed.

A 2 seed is probably out of the question without running the table and making it to the conference championship game.

[MUMac]

Here are some road records vs. top 75 RPI

Road Records vs. Top 75 RPI

Ohio State 2-3
Duke 1-1
NC 1-2
Kansas 3-3
Kentucky 2-1
Missouri 3-1
Syracuse 2-1
Michigan State 3-4

Marquette 1-4

Baylor 3-2
Georgetown 2-2
Indiana 2-4
Michigan 1-5
Louisville 2-2
Murray State 1-0
UNLV 1-3
Wisconsin 3-3

Marquette is not great but quality road wins are definitely hard to come by for most teams (Duke and NC w/ only 1).  If they can get a win in the next three it will make things look better and in line with the rest of the teams looking for a 3 seed.

A 2 seed is probably out of the question without running the table and making it to the conference championship game.

Thanks.  IF beat UCONN and WVU, they will have a much more presentable road record against the top 75.

[wardle2wade]

A 2 seed is probably out of the question without running the table and making it to the conference championship game.

Sometimes our fans severely undervalue how MU compares to the rest of the country.

If we win our last five and win one in the BET, we will undoubtedly be a #2.  That means we will have won 14 of 15 before losing in the BE semis to a likely top NCAA team.

The mock committee just released their S-curve this morning and MU came in 10th overall (equivalent to the 2nd best 3-seed).

[CTWarrior]

If we win our last five and win one in the BET, we will undoubtedly be a #2.  That means we will have won 14 of 15 before losing in the BE semis to a likely top NCAA team.

I get this, but what exactly in our performance up to now (1-4 against quality teams on the road) would lead you to believe we are going win our last 5?  If we're anything other than 3-2 or 2-3 in our last 5 I'll be very surprised.

[MUWarrior11]

I get this, but what exactly in our performance up to now (1-4 against quality teams on the road) would lead you to believe we are going win our last 5?  If we're anything other than 3-2 or 2-3 in our last 5 I'll be very surprised.

Exactly.  I don't think we "undervalue" MU at all. In fact, I think (like 99% of sports fans) we tend to overvalue our team.  True- if we literally don't lose another game until our conference tourney final, we will be a 2-seed.  But you could say the same for Syracuse, Kansas, Kentucky, Ohio St., Michigan St. Mizzou, Baylor, KU, Duke, Georgetown, Wisconsin, Louisville, Indiana, Michigan, and perhaps even more.

But let's be honest, who hear thinks we are going to rattle off seven wins in a row, starting tomorrow? I would love it, but I wouldn't bet on it.  Therefore I think the notion of us getting a 2-seed is a little overly-optimistic right now. I would be thrilled to be wrong.

[LAZER]

Sometimes our fans severely undervalue how MU compares to the rest of the country.

If we win our last five and win one in the BET, we will undoubtedly be a #2.  That means we will have won 14 of 15 before losing in the BE semis to a likely top NCAA team.

The mock committee just released their S-curve this morning and MU came in 10th overall (equivalent to the 2nd best 3-seed).

I'm with you.  Alot of bball to be played and if Marquette goes 4 of 5, we have a very good shot at jumping some teams in front of us, especially the way this season is playing out. I don't know if that will guarantee a 2 seed, but I think it would guarantee a 3 seed and a legit shot at a 2.

[dwaderoy2004]

I get this, but what exactly in our performance up to now (1-4 against quality teams on the road) would lead you to believe we are going win our last 5?  If we're anything other than 3-2 or 2-3 in our last 5 I'll be very surprised.

No road game is easy, but our last five is a pretty manageable stretch.  Only one ranked team, and that is at home.  It's funny, but how much different would everyone's perception be of this team, both as fans and nationally, if we had just hung on against Georgetown.  Obviously you can't dismiss the result, but I think this team is fully deserving of their #12 ranking, and #12 ranked teams beat middling teams (UConn, WVU and Cincy) on the road more times than not.  I would be severely disappointed with anything less than 3-2 and am expecting 4-1.

[MUMac]

I get this, but what exactly in our performance up to now (1-4 against quality teams on the road) would lead you to believe we are going win our last 5?  If we're anything other than 3-2 or 2-3 in our last 5 I'll be very surprised.

LSU, Cuse and Georgetown were a long time ago.  MU is a far different team today than the one's playing against those teams. 

[wardle2wade]

I get this, but what exactly in our performance up to now (1-4 against quality teams on the road) would lead you to believe we are going win our last 5?  If we're anything other than 3-2 or 2-3 in our last 5 I'll be very surprised.

Sorry, but please reread what I wrote.  I did not say MU is going to run the table nor do I think that... I was just disputing the naysayer who said "if we win out and lose in the BET champ, we'd still not be a #2 seed."  I think someone else in this chimed in with a similar statement.  I was just rebutting that completely absurd notion.  We'd undoubtedly be a #2 seed.

Realistically, I think we go 3-2 although 4-1 wouldn't surprise me.  I see wins over Rutgers and Georgetown at home, and go 1-2 out of the roadies.

Let's say we are fortunate enough to win 2 of these road games... MU would be 3-5 on the road vs top 75.  That is much more impressive than it sounds as we will have played a whopping 8 games in this tough category.  No one else could boast that besides Mich State (3-4) and OSU (2-3) who each play 3 more "top 75" roadies.  Since they'd potentially be sub-500 as well in this category, should we say that Mich State or OSU would have no business for #2 seeds?

This year there are some warts even at the top... KU losing in KC to Davidson, Mizzou losing at OkSt.  With the strong non-conf MU played this year and no bad losses, MU is given much more leeway than in past years.  If we win 2 of these road games, our warts will be very minor.

[wardle2wade]

LSU, Cuse and Georgetown were a long time ago.  MU is a far different team today than the one's playing against those teams. 

I agree.  At the BC, I think MU beats Georgetown by 6.  Life on the road is tough.  We should find out soon enough.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Can't agree with you on that one. I think the #1 and #2 seeds are virtually locked up: Syracuse, KU, Mizzou, Duke, UNC, Mich St, Ohio St, Kentucky. Yes, there's 3 weeks of hoops left, but I don't see us passing any of those teams.  Furthermore, we'd be battling the likes of Georgetown, Baylor and others for a 3 seed.

In the scenario you proposed, we would be a 7-loss team. Every year we put our blue and gold shades on and think we'll be seeded higher than we actually are. This talk of a two seed is a perfect example.

Hope I'm wrong, but I think we'll end up a 4. Haven't been higher than a 6 seed since '03, so not too shabby.

I disagree. I think Duke has a good chance of dropping behind us if we were to finish 4-1 in Big East play and lose to Cuse in the final of the tournament. I think a 2 is still within reach, but we would need to play some good ball, and other teams would need to lose.

[wardle2wade]

Can't agree with you on that one. I think the #1 and #2 seeds are virtually locked up: Syracuse, KU, Mizzou, Duke, UNC, Mich St, Ohio St, Kentucky. Yes, there's 3 weeks of hoops left, but I don't see us passing any of those teams.  Furthermore, we'd be battling the likes of Georgetown, Baylor and others for a 3 seed.

In the scenario you proposed, we would be a 7-loss team. Every year we put our blue and gold shades on and think we'll be seeded higher than we actually are. This talk of a two seed is a perfect example.

Two of the #2's last year had 7 losses.  If we go 4-1 and 1-1 in the BET, we'd be 26-7 and have a very strong resume for a #2 seed.

Unlike other years with our blue and gold shades, our non-conference schedule is finally up to snuff.  That has straight up killed us in years past when it comes to seeding and RPI... kudos to Buzz and his staff for fixing this.

[Spotcheck Billy]

I disagree. I think Duke has a good chance of dropping behind us

no way, they are always over rated in seeding when the brackets come out cuz they're DUKE!