How Good A Coach Is Wojo - Using Charts

[Not A Serious Person]

Cheeks post got me motivated to scrap data from Kenpom's site (I have a subscription so I scrapped a complete set of data). You might have seen some of the full season charts I posted in other threads.

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The charts below are game-by-game ratings back to 2011 when Ken started offering this data on his site.  I have an email into him to get the game-by-game rankings back to 1997.  If he shares, I will update these charts accordingly.

(I will do this over several posts to keep the ideas separate and easier to follow.)

[Not A Serious Person]

First, a word about the ratings. 

Since 2011 Kenpom has offered a daily ratings update.  What is posted here are MU's ratings the day of the game, so before MU plays, and everyone else that day.  The results of that day's game are reflected in the next plot point.

Remember that the ratings move not only on MUs wins and losses, but teams ranked near us as well.  So, if MU does not play for a week, and teams ranked just above us lose, we move up without doing anything.  Conversely, if we don't play for a week and teams just below us win, we move down without doing anything.  In other words, the rest of the D1 teams are not stationary when calculating daily ratings.

Also, early season ratings are more volatile than later ratings.  KenPom tries to compensate for this and I think he does as good a job as anyone.  That said, the early season data does bounce around a lot.

Thoughts/ideas/comments are welcome.
Trolling is not.

[Not A Serious Person]

The next chart shows MU's rating, game-by-game during the six seasons of Wojo.  It includes Saturday's Georgetown win. Each season is a different color.

I highlighted the games that marked season extremes.  The worst ranking during the Wojo era was Wojo's rookie season when MU was #124 on March 7, 2015. 

The best ranking was #12 On Nov 17, 2019, the day MU lost to Bucky.  Interestingly, this was better than all last year, when the media polls had MU as high as #10. 

Note the general season-by-season downward (getting better) trend.  I'm going to disagree with many in the other thread, and note the downward trend is about recruiting and the quality of players on the roster, not coaching ability. 

Recruiting is getting even better.  MU is believed to have the best incoming class in the Big East, and by some measures, a top 10 class ("Inside the Big East" on FS1 did a segment on MU's incoming class this past weekend and said this)

[Not A Serious Person]

If the season to season trend, is not about coaching ability but recruiting, how do we measure coaching ability? 

One way is shown next.  It shows the change in the game-by-game rating from week one.  Each season is a different color and the thick black line is the average for the Wojo era.

Does this team get better or worse as the season progresses?  This tells us a lot about the coach's ability, and injuries too.

I see an interesting pattern.  The blue (2015) and orange (2016) lines were Wojo's first two seasons.  They trended higher, meaning the team's rankings progressively worsened as the season progressed.  In other words, Wojo struggled as a coach.

But Wojo has gotten better. See 2017 (red), 2018 (cyan) and 2019 (green).  Note the uptrend last year after game 22 (the green line at -10).  That was the Nova game when Markus got hurt, and everything started to unravel after that.

Bottom line,

* Wojo is progressively getting better as a recruiter (the downward trend from season to season)
* And as a coach, after the first two seasons, he teams stopped trending worse as the season progressed and, adjusting for injuries, is getting better as a coach.

What about this season?  The brown line (2020), through game 18 (Georgetown) is +16 (meaning we are rated 16 spots worse than week 1 this year).  Is he regressing?  Maybe.  But, a lot of this jump was losing to Providence at home and at Seton Hall, which could be reversed in the next few days.  Also, we have at least 14 more games (12 scheduled and at least 1 BET and one post-season game remaining).  So this season is still very much a work in progress.

[Not A Serious Person]

How about Buzz?  As noted in the first post, daily ratings started in 2011.  So, unless I get more data from KenPom, I only have the last four seasons of Buzz.

Note from 2012 to 2014, the season-by-season rankings were going higher (worsening).  This means that Buzz hit a ceiling on his recruiting in 2012.  But that ceiling was a top 10 program.  Nevertheless, recruiting worsened after 2012.

[Not A Serious Person]

The final chart shows the change in ratings for the last four seasons. It graphically shows what we all know, that Buzz's last season was a coaching disaster, supporting the claim that he quit on the season. 

Not surprising, he bolted to VT after that year.

[Dr. Blackheart]

How about Buzz?  As noted in the first post, daily ratings started in 2011.  So, unless I get more data from KenPom, I only have the last four seasons of Buzz.

Note from 2012 to 2014, the season-by-season rankings were going higher (worsening).  This means that Buzz hit a ceiling on his recruiting in 2012.  But that ceiling was a top 10 program.  Never the less, recruiting worsened after 2012.

Larry Williams start date:  1/2/2012.

Before Cheeks steps in with another New Testament chapter, factually, there is no denying things changed dramatically in the type of kid allowed to enter MU athletic teams at that time. It’s why Wojo is here and Buzz isn’t.

These changes took Buzz out of his recruiting network and were the reason he left. It isn’t a Buzz vs. Wojo linear comparison. The university changed and Wojo fit the new profile.

It’s also the reason why there is a rift in the fan base on expectations. Some feel we should be a Top 10 program. Others are happy with a .500 BE record and making the field of 64. The BOT has determined the latter is the direction...and they have rewarded Wojo twice for doing just that with extensions. It’s really that simple. It was a bet on the Duke model.

[Elonsmusk]

Thanks for taking the time to chart all of this data.  No doubt Buzz's last year at MU was a complete outlier.  In his 11 years at MU and VaTech, that 2014 team was his 2nd worst - with only his Year 1 team at VaTech being worse (which he inherited a team that went 2-16 in the ACC the prior year.)

As for Wojo?  I personally don't think a coach could have done a worse job his first two years at MU, so, he set the bar awfully low for showing improvement.  Will be interesting to see how he fares next season without the generational player, Markus, on the roster.  On the positive, he will have had 6 full years of experience to learn from.

[Marcus92]

It’s also the reason why there is a rift in the fan base on expectations. Some feel we should be a Top 10 program. Others are happy with a .500 BE record and making the field of 64. The BOT has determined the latter is the direction...and they have rewarded Wojo twice for doing just that with extensions. It’s really that simple. It was a bet on the Duke model.

I disagree with two big assumptions/implications here (which get repeated over and over):

  1) That the only way for MU to be a Top 10 program is to lower its standards for
  admissions, academics or off-court issues; and

  2) That the board/fans are "happy with a .500 BE record and making the field of 64"

For starters, most Top 10 programs don't depend on junior college transfers to the degree that Buzz Williams did at Marquette. In fact, he had an unusual run of success over the course of four seasons (between 2008-09 and 2011-12) with recruits like Jimmy Butler, Darius Johnson-Odom, Dwight Buycks and Jae Crowder. It's fair to say he hasn't approached that level since.

Beyond that, Villanova -- a private, Catholic university ranked among the Top 100 nationally just like Marquette -- has managed to win two national titles while maintaining a perfect 1000 APR score for academics.

https://villanova.com/news/2018/5/23/Villanova_Student_Athletes_Make_the_Grade_in_Latest_APR_Data.aspx

Finally, Wojo getting an extension doesn't mean the board or fans have no higher expectations than simply making the NCAA tournament. Clearly, he's met baseline expectations/metrics so far. But I, for one, along with every single MU fan I know, want and expect postseason success.

Who really believes the only two alternatives are either "Let things slide a little with Buzz and win" or "Run a clean program and be mediocre"? To me, that's a false choice.

[Dr. Blackheart]

I disagree with two big assumptions/implications here (which get repeated over and over):

  1) That the only way for MU to be a Top 10 program is to lower its standards for
  admissions, academics or off-court issues; and

  2) That the board/fans are "happy with a .500 BE record and making the field of 64"

For starters, most Top 10 programs don't depend on junior college transfers to the degree that Buzz Williams did at Marquette. In fact, he had an unusual run of success over the course of four seasons (between 2008-09 and 2011-12) with recruits like Jimmy Butler, Darius Johnson-Odom, Dwight Buycks and Jae Crowder. It's fair to say he hasn't approached that level since.

Beyond that, Villanova -- a private, Catholic university ranked among the Top 100 nationally just like Marquette -- has managed to win two national titles while maintaining a perfect 1000 APR score for academics.

https://villanova.com/news/2018/5/23/Villanova_Student_Athletes_Make_the_Grade_in_Latest_APR_Data.aspx

Finally, Wojo getting an extension doesn't mean the board or fans have no higher expectations than simply making the NCAA tournament. Clearly, he's met baseline expectations/metrics so far. But I, for one, along with every single MU fan I know, want and expect postseason success.

Who really believes the only two alternatives are either "Let things slide a little with Buzz and win" or "Run a clean program and be mediocre"? To me, that's a false choice.

I never said I agreed or disagreed. I said the fan base is split this way which is why we have Groundhog Day on Scoop everyday.

That said, at least 50% of KPom’s Top 20 are well-known or highly rumored cheaters. If the NCAA lived its mission, we’d have higher odds of collecting the Golden Ticket. Until then, we are Duke without the jeweler.

[lurch91]

As for Wojo?  I personally don't think a coach could have done a worse job his first two years at MU,

You obviously did not live through the Bob Dukiet years.....

[Galway Eagle]

Thanks for taking the time to chart all of this data.  No doubt Buzz's last year at MU was a complete outlier.  In his 11 years at MU and VaTech, that 2014 team was his 2nd worst - with only his Year 1 team at VaTech being worse (which he inherited a team that went 2-16 in the ACC the prior year.)

As for Wojo?  I personally don't think a coach could have done a worse job his first two years at MU, so, he set the bar awfully low for showing improvement.  Will be interesting to see how he fares next season without the generational player, Markus, on the roster.  On the positive, he will have had 6 full years of experience to learn from.

Bill Chandler: 11-7 & 11-8

Tex Winter: 12-14 & 13-11

Jack Nagle: 11-15 & 24-3

Eddie Hickey: 23-6 & 13-12

Al McGuire: 8-18 & 14-12

Bob Dukiet: 6-13 & 10-18

Kevin O'Neil: 15-14 & 11-18

Tom Crean: 15-14 & 15:14

Wojo: 13-19 & 20-13

Plenty of coaches did worse and with much easier schedules

[Not A Serious Person]

Larry Williams start date:  1/2/2012.

Before Cheeks steps in with another New Testament chapter, factually, there is no denying things changed dramatically in the type of kid allowed to enter MU athletic teams at that time. It’s why Wojo is here and Buzz isn’t.

These changes took Buzz out of his recruiting network and were the reason he left. It isn’t a Buzz vs. Wojo linear comparison. The university changed and Wojo fit the new profile.

Except next year's class is one of the best incoming classes in MU history, the highest-rated BE class and a top 10 overall class by some measures.

How did this happen given your argument?

[Pakuni]

It’s also the reason why there is a rift in the fan base on expectations. Some feel we should be a Top 10 program. Others are happy with a .500 BE record and making the field of 64.

From my perspective, it seems there's a plurality - if not majority - of Marquette fans that fall somewhere in between.
There's a cadre that believe anything short of a 70s revival is failure, and a similar group that are content to not be DePaul.

I think most of us expect MU to be in the tournament most years, get to the second weekend on occasion and consistently in the top half of the Big East.

[WhoaJoe2020]

Except next year's class is one of the best incoming classes in MU history, the highest-rated BE class and a top 10 overall class by some measures.

How did this happen given your argument?

Just curious......Does KenPom account for transfers like the Hausers or guys that are playing through injuries like Theo, Koby, and Jayce ?

[Cheeks]

Larry Williams start date:  1/2/2012.

Before Cheeks steps in with another New Testament chapter, factually, there is no denying things changed dramatically in the type of kid allowed to enter MU athletic teams at that time. It’s why Wojo is here and Buzz isn’t.

These changes took Buzz out of his recruiting network and were the reason he left. It isn’t a Buzz vs. Wojo linear comparison. The university changed and Wojo fit the new profile.

It’s also the reason why there is a rift in the fan base on expectations. Some feel we should be a Top 10 program. Others are happy with a .500 BE record and making the field of 64. The BOT has determined the latter is the direction...and they have rewarded Wojo twice for doing just that with extensions. It’s really that simple. It was a bet on the Duke model.

Dr....I agree with most of this post until some of the last paragraph.  It's not that people are "happy" with a .500 BE record and making the field.  I think some of us have higher standards that believe we can recruit a certain way AND do well...it's not an either or choice.  The challenge is that it cannot be done overnight and will take a massive cultural change and years of getting those types of kids to do it properly.  Requires patience.  And yes, it causes a rift, but if it works the upside is fantastic for the school and program. 

Will people have the patience?

[Cheeks]

I disagree with two big assumptions/implications here (which get repeated over and over):

  1) That the only way for MU to be a Top 10 program is to lower its standards for
  admissions, academics or off-court issues; and

  2) That the board/fans are "happy with a .500 BE record and making the field of 64"

For starters, most Top 10 programs don't depend on junior college transfers to the degree that Buzz Williams did at Marquette. In fact, he had an unusual run of success over the course of four seasons (between 2008-09 and 2011-12) with recruits like Jimmy Butler, Darius Johnson-Odom, Dwight Buycks and Jae Crowder. It's fair to say he hasn't approached that level since.

Beyond that, Villanova -- a private, Catholic university ranked among the Top 100 nationally just like Marquette -- has managed to win two national titles while maintaining a perfect 1000 APR score for academics.

https://villanova.com/news/2018/5/23/Villanova_Student_Athletes_Make_the_Grade_in_Latest_APR_Data.aspx

Finally, Wojo getting an extension doesn't mean the board or fans have no higher expectations than simply making the NCAA tournament. Clearly, he's met baseline expectations/metrics so far. But I, for one, along with every single MU fan I know, want and expect postseason success.

Who really believes the only two alternatives are either "Let things slide a little with Buzz and win" or "Run a clean program and be mediocre"? To me, that's a false choice.

Amen brother Marcus.

[Elonsmusk]

Bill Chandler: 11-7 & 11-8

Tex Winter: 12-14 & 13-11

Jack Nagle: 11-15 & 24-3

Eddie Hickey: 23-6 & 13-12

Al McGuire: 8-18 & 14-12

Bob Dukiet: 6-13 & 10-18

Kevin O'Neil: 15-14 & 11-18

Tom Crean: 15-14 & 15:14

Wojo: 13-19 & 20-13

Plenty of coaches did worse and with much easier schedules

My post was speaking real time. As in the day Wojo walked into the MU job. Of course I knew there were coaches at MU who turned in worse records their first two years.

Wojo’s coaching and decision-making were atrocious Years 1 and 2.  He’s improved some since that time.

[war1980rior]

Dr....I agree with most of this post until some of the last paragraph.  It's not that people are "happy" with a .500 BE record and making the field.  I think some of us have higher standards that believe we can recruit a certain way AND do well...it's not an either or choice.  The challenge is that it cannot be done overnight and will take a massive cultural change and years of getting those types of kids to do it properly.  Requires patience.  And yes, it causes a rift, but if it works the upside is fantastic for the school and program. 

Will people have the patience?

Good stuff on both of these.  Culture is a tough thing to change and takes a lot of effort and consistency over time.

A friend of mine (talking business over the weekend) said the quick solution is more often than not an unethical solution.

Take the time to build it right!

[WhoaJoe2020]

I never said I agreed or disagreed. I said the fan base is split this way which is why we have Groundhog Day on Scoop everyday.

That said, at least 50% of KPom’s Top 20 are well-known or highly rumored cheaters. If the NCAA lived its mission, we’d have higher odds of collecting the Golden Ticket. Until then, we are Duke without the jeweler.

Marquettes jeweler is starting to get better quality gems.

I agree with the Duke analogy, and who better to recreate Dukes culture, playing style, and success at Marquette, than someone who lived it for a large portion of his life.

[Galway Eagle]

My post was speaking real time. As in the day Wojo walked into the MU job. Of course I knew there were coaches at MU who turned in worse records their first two years.

Wojo’s coaching and decision-making were atrocious Years 1 and 2.  He’s improved some since that time.

Year 2 when he won 20 games? If that's atrocious then sign me up to stay on board for when he puts together full seasons of good decision making plus better talent.

[WhoaJoe2020]

Good stuff on both of these.  Culture is a tough thing to change and takes a lot of effort and consistency over time.

A friend of mine (talking business over the weekend) said the quick solution is more often than not an unethical solution.

Take the time to build it right!

Your friends comment could apply to so many important issues in the world today. It was an obvious yet profound statement.

[Elonsmusk]

Marquettes jeweler is starting to get better quality gems.

I agree with the Duke analogy, and who better to recreate Dukes culture, playing style, and success at Marquette, than someone who lived it for a large portion of his life.

And Duke is known to many as:  Douche

Perhaps that stems from jealousy. Or from perception of privilege. Or arrogance. Or elitism.   No wonder why Cheeks is obsessed with the current “traditional trajectory.”

[war1980rior]

Your friends comment could apply to so many important issues in the world today. It was an obvious yet profound statement.

Thanks!  He's a great guy that I hired away from my past employer.  He's very ethical and left for the same reason I did.  I really liked hearing that.

[Elonsmusk]

Year 2 when he won 20 games? If that's atrocious then sign me up to stay on board for when he puts together full seasons of good decision making plus better talent.

He won 20 games and finished ~100th in KenPom, missed the NIT, with a one and done on roster - inexplicably trying to force Haanif Cheatham into the PG slot, while massively underutilizing JJJ.