Justin

[muwarrior69]

It's probably already been mentioned somewhere in here, but Justin and others in his position have until 11:59 p.m. Wednesday to withdraw his name from the pool of players eligible for the NBA Draft.

Is that Eastern or time zone dependent? Just want to be accurate here.

[MU82]

Is that Eastern or time zone dependent? Just want to be accurate here.

Quite certain it's eastern time, as I read it in The Athletic.

I'm guessing we won't find out about all the athletes who decided to stay in college or stay in the draft until Thursday morning, though maybe JL and/or Marquette will make some kind of announcement or social media post before then.

[CTWarrior]

The “Justin looks lazy/disinterested” horse. Challenging “Vanilla Soft Serve” and “Markus = Cancer” as dumbest, most overused “jokes” in Scoopdom.

I nominate every Hauser/letter reference to your list of dumb, overused, stopped being funny more than a year ago "jokes".

[Shooter McGavin]

I nominate every Hauser/letter reference to your list of dumb, overused, stopped being funny more than a year ago "jokes".

I’m with you and Lenny and would also include people who post intentionally in gibberish. 

[brewcity77]

Quite certain it's eastern time, as I read it in The Athletic.

I'm guessing we won't find out about all the athletes who decided to stay in college or stay in the draft until Thursday morning, though maybe JL and/or Marquette will make some kind of announcement or social media post before then.

Justin is back on campus in Milwaukee. At one point, he did say he would announce on June 1, so I'm guessing they'll set something up for tomorrow. I wasn't optimistic, but seeing all the announcements of guys coming back, including guys whose stock was clearly higher than Justin's (Terquavion Smith) I'm starting to wonder.

[jfp61]

Justin is back on campus in Milwaukee. At one point, he did say he would announce on June 1, so I'm guessing they'll set something up for tomorrow. I wasn't optimistic, but seeing all the announcements of guys coming back, including guys whose stock was clearly higher than Justin's (Terquavion Smith) I'm starting to wonder.

He is not on Campus.

[brewcity77]

He is not on Campus.

He was yesterday, now it looks like he's out of town. Less encouraging, for sure.

[GoldenEagles03]

The consensus on where Justin gets drafted seems to differ from where he is ranked as a prospect. The talk around him is high as a player, but seems to be in the 45-58 range (2 forfeited picks). That tells me that people like his upside but think he'll be a project.

If the 45-58 range is accurate it wouldn't take all that much for him to go undrafted. A guy or 2 slips or a team that likes him picks someone else and he could slide. There are so many players in this draft and already starting to see projected late 1sts return to school.

Not sure what he will decide, but if he stays in the draft I hope it works out for him.

[lawdog77]

He was yesterday, now it looks like he's out of town. Less encouraging, for sure.

He came back to see if his bag was ready. If it is not full enough, he gowne.

[jfp61]

He was yesterday, now it looks like he's out of town. Less encouraging, for sure.

Also, a player in the same range as Justin leaving the draft makes it more likely that Justin stays in the draft. He will be "one pick higher".

[brewcity77]

Also, a player in the same range as Justin leaving the draft makes it more likely that Justin stays in the draft. He will be "one pick higher".

Neither of those are necessarily true.

[LAZER]

The teams that Justin has been linked to (Indiana, Orlando, and Toronto) all have picks early in the 2nd round. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go 31-35.

[brewcity77]

The teams that Justin has been linked to (Indiana, Orlando, and Toronto) all have picks early in the 2nd round. I wouldn't be surprised to see him go 31-35.

That run does seem to be most likely based on context. I'm a little surprised he didn't work out for Sacramento, New Orleans, or Minnesota, all of whom have multiple picks in the 40-52 range. If he doesn't get picked by 35, it's a long wait until 58.

[Herman Cain]

He came back to see if his bag was ready. If it is not full enough, he gowne.

Here is my analysis. There are approximately  72 jobs available. 58 Draft picks and approximately 14 two way contracts ( per analysis provided by BrewCity77). I believe Justin is in the top 72 players in the draft. So Justin can get something better than a Section 10 /g league contract if he stays in the draft.

MU will need to  come up with an equivalent to  a two way contract , which was 462,500 last year, to essentially have a shot at recruiting Justin to stay.  MU is essentially in Rod Tidwell/Jerry McGuire mode.

[cheebs09]

Here is my analysis. There are approximately 88 jobs available. 58 Draft picks and approximately 30 two way contracts ( half of the available 60 as some will go to existing two way players). I believe Justin is in the top 88 players in the draft. So Justin can get something better than a Section 10 /g league contract if he stays in the draft.

MU will need to  come up with an equivalent to  a two way contract , which was 462,500 last year, to essentially have a shot at recruiting Justin to stay.  MU is essentially in Rod Tidwell/Jerry McGuire mode.

Money being equal, I would assume he still goes. If he’s getting a two-way contract this year, I think his odds of sticking in the NBA are higher than taking his chances with a new draft class next year. He could work himself into a first round pick, but I’m not sure I would bet on that.

[brewcity77]

Here is my analysis. There are approximately 88 jobs available. 58 Draft picks and approximately 30 two way contracts ( half of the available 60 as some will go to existing two way players). I believe Justin is in the top 88 players in the draft. So Justin can get something better than a Section 10 /g league contract if he stays in the draft.

MU will need to  come up with an equivalent to  a two way contract , which was 462,500 last year, to essentially have a shot at recruiting Justin to stay.  MU is essentially in Rod Tidwell/Jerry McGuire mode.

Your two-way estimate is a massive, massive overestimate. You have to remember first that many of the two-way contracts will go to players that were, indeed, drafted. Last year set the record for the number of undrafted players given two-way contracts, and it was just 14.

Last year, there were 56 players on two-way contracts. This was the breakdown by draft-eligible year:

2016: 2 Undrafted / 0 Drafted (2)
2017: 3 Undrafted / 1 Drafted (4)
2018: 4 Undrafted / 2 Drafted (6)
2019: 5 Undrafted / 3 Drafted (8)
2020: 12 Undrafted / 4 Drafted (16)
2021: 14 Undrafted / 6 Drafted (20)

Initially, there were more drafted players on two-way deals. 10 players were given two-way deals on their draft position but 4 were later converted to full NBA contracts.

In terms of second round deals overall, here is the running tally of (at least partially) guaranteed deals given out in the past 6 drafts, including two-way deals:

2016: 21 Guaranteed / 0 Two-way
2017: 16 Guaranteed / 5 Two-way
2018: 20 Guaranteed / 4 Two-way
2019: 18 Guaranteed / 8 Two-way
2020: 16 Guaranteed / 10 Two-way
2021: 15 Guaranteed / 10 Two-way

If he's drafted, it's about an 80% chance he ends up with a two-way or better contract offer. However, here's the number of early entrants and international eligible players in those years:

2016: 162
2017: 182
2018: 236
2019: 233
2020: 205
2021: 192 (Not including college seniors that declared)

Without digging completely into the numbers (which would take more time than I have right now) that means there's a little less than a 10% chance of getting a two-way deal if you are an undrafted free agent. Maybe Justin ends up one of those 10-15 undrafted players that end up with one, but it certainly won't be 30 and it is a far riskier proposition if you aren't one of the guys who hears their name on Draft night.

[GoldenEagles03]

Your two-way estimate is a massive, massive overestimate. You have to remember first that many of the two-way contracts will go to players that were, indeed, drafted. Last year set the record for the number of undrafted players given two-way contracts, and it was just 14.

Last year, there were 56 players on two-way contracts. This was the breakdown by draft-eligible year:

2016: 2 Undrafted / 0 Drafted (2)
2017: 3 Undrafted / 1 Drafted (4)
2018: 4 Undrafted / 2 Drafted (6)
2019: 5 Undrafted / 3 Drafted (8)
2020: 12 Undrafted / 4 Drafted (16)
2021: 14 Undrafted / 6 Drafted (20)

Initially, there were more drafted players on two-way deals. 10 players were given two-way deals on their draft position but 4 were later converted to full NBA contracts.

In terms of second round deals overall, here is the running tally of (at least partially) guaranteed deals given out in the past 6 drafts, including two-way deals:

2016: 21 Guaranteed / 0 Two-way
2017: 16 Guaranteed / 5 Two-way
2018: 20 Guaranteed / 4 Two-way
2019: 18 Guaranteed / 8 Two-way
2020: 16 Guaranteed / 10 Two-way
2021: 15 Guaranteed / 10 Two-way

If he's drafted, it's about an 80% chance he ends up with a two-way or better contract offer. However, here's the number of early entrants and international eligible players in those years:

2016: 162
2017: 182
2018: 236
2019: 233
2020: 205
2021: 192 (Not including college seniors that declared)

Without digging completely into the numbers (which would take more time than I have right now) that means there's a little less than a 10% chance of getting a two-way deal if you are an undrafted free agent. Maybe Justin ends up one of those 10-15 undrafted players that end up with one, but it certainly won't be 30 and it is a far riskier proposition if you aren't one of the guys who hears their name on Draft night.

He ain't staying in the draft to get a 2 way contract.  He could get that next year and the year after if he stayed at MU and all went south.

He's either getting a draft guarantee in a range he is comfortable with or he's coming back.

[LAZER]

He ain't staying in the draft to get a 2 way contract.  He could get that next year and the year after if he stayed at MU and all went south.

He's either getting a draft guarantee in a range he is comfortable with or he's coming back.

I think a two way contract is worth leaving for most players unless you're getting Tshiebwe money.  If Lewis is going to make it in the NBA it won't be because of development during a 3rd year at MU.

[brewcity77]

He ain't staying in the draft to get a 2 way contract.  He could get that next year and the year after if he stayed at MU and all went south.

He's either getting a draft guarantee in a range he is comfortable with or he's coming back.

He isn't staying in to get a 2-way, but that might be the best he can get after he decides to stay in. Maybe he has draft guarantees from Orlando, Indiana, and Sacramento. But what if Indiana and Sacramento want the same guy? Indiana trades their second round picks to move from 6th to 3rd, then Sacramento trades their second round picks to move from 4th to 2nd to get ahead of Indiana. A couple hours later, Orlando sees a guy they had with a lottery grade sliding into the 20s and they package their second round picks to get back into the first. Suddenly, all those second round "guarantees" are gone and Justin is just hoping someone still picks him or he can get a two-way if his name never gets called.

There will be about 20 available two-way deals for members of this draft class. Some will go to drafted players, and a handful will go to undrafted players. And when all is said and done, there will be a dozen or so content undrafted players with two-way deals in hand and 100+ undrafted players who don't get that guarantee and are left pondering Europe or the G League.

If Justin stays in, I hope he gets drafted as high as possible. If he doesn't, I hope he gets a two-way deal. That will still likely be north of $500,000 per year next season. But guarantees aren't worth all that much when there were 13 draft day trades last year and two-way assurances aren't very high when less than 10% of draft eligible underclassmen/internationals end up getting them.

[Herman Cain]

Your two-way estimate is a massive, massive overestimate. You have to remember first that many of the two-way contracts will go to players that were, indeed, drafted. Last year set the record for the number of undrafted players given two-way contracts, and it was just 14.

Last year, there were 56 players on two-way contracts. This was the breakdown by draft-eligible year:

2016: 2 Undrafted / 0 Drafted (2)
2017: 3 Undrafted / 1 Drafted (4)
2018: 4 Undrafted / 2 Drafted (6)
2019: 5 Undrafted / 3 Drafted (8)
2020: 12 Undrafted / 4 Drafted (16)
2021: 14 Undrafted / 6 Drafted (20)

Initially, there were more drafted players on two-way deals. 10 players were given two-way deals on their draft position but 4 were later converted to full NBA contracts.

In terms of second round deals overall, here is the running tally of (at least partially) guaranteed deals given out in the past 6 drafts, including two-way deals:

2016: 21 Guaranteed / 0 Two-way
2017: 16 Guaranteed / 5 Two-way
2018: 20 Guaranteed / 4 Two-way
2019: 18 Guaranteed / 8 Two-way
2020: 16 Guaranteed / 10 Two-way
2021: 15 Guaranteed / 10 Two-way

If he's drafted, it's about an 80% chance he ends up with a two-way or better contract offer. However, here's the number of early entrants and international eligible players in those years:

2016: 162
2017: 182
2018: 236
2019: 233
2020: 205
2021: 192 (Not including college seniors that declared)

Without digging completely into the numbers (which would take more time than I have right now) that means there's a little less than a 10% chance of getting a two-way deal if you are an undrafted free agent. Maybe Justin ends up one of those 10-15 undrafted players that end up with one, but it certainly won't be 30 and it is a far riskier proposition if you aren't one of the guys who hears their name on Draft night.

I correct my Post to reflect the two way numbers you provided. Thanks for the detail.

[MU82]

MU will need to  come up with an equivalent to  a two way contract , which was 462,500 last year, to essentially have a shot at recruiting Justin to stay.  MU is essentially in Rod Tidwell/Jerry McGuire mode.

This all assumes that it's only about money. Not a single person here has any idea what Justin is thinking about right now.

[jfp61]

This all assumes that it's only about money. Not a single person here has any idea what Justin is thinking about right now.

Also, if Marquette and Justin only care about money, we need to make up the difference in reaching a second contract a year later including the probability of receiving a second contract. I expect a full CBA in this thread.

[Lennys Tap]

The NC State player rated the 22nd best player (ESPN, I think) just announced he’s returning to school. We’ll soon find out if our pockets are as deep as theirs.

[Stretchdeltsig]

I hope Justin continues his education at Marquette. He's not a great player, yet. He has a chance to go from a good player to a great player in two years. 

[dad's couch]

He's either getting a draft guarantee in a range he is comfortable with or he's coming back.
[/quote

I could have told you that in April.