Ellenson: One and Done or not?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

What if he averages 12.1 ppg in 34 games before getting injured? Any total of 410 or more points would project to 5.0 ppg in an 82-game season.

Ha

[wadesworld]

What if he averages 12.1 ppg in 34 games before getting injured? Any total of 410 or more points would project to 5.0 ppg in an 82-game season.

I'm good with where it's at.  My thought was if he averages under 5 ppg and plays in under 35 games then he most likely spent most of his season in the D League.  If that's the case and I can get out with a push so be it, even though in reality I deserve to lose that bet.  I don't expect that to be the case (which is why I'm betting he scores over 5 ppg next year) but doesn't hurt to not have to worry about that.

[Windyplayer]

Because the thought of him guarding NBA 4s is nearly comical.

Oh my, that's seriously frightening.

If he ends up on a Thibs-coached team, especially, he'll be lucky to see the floor at at all next year.

[GGGG]

Because the thought of him guarding NBA 4s is nearly comical.

He'll be fine. 

[Benny B]

He'll be fine.

How could he not be with eight figures in his pocket?

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

He'll be fine.

Eh. Don't misunderstand me, Henry can go pro if he wants and he will likely get drafted between 6-9, which has been long established on here. 

I just don't think he'll see the court much next year.  Maybe even the year after.  Eventually he will probably be a serviceable NBA player and become a rich man, but I just don't think he is "NBA ready", not that most guys are. 

Henry isn't a great defender against college bigs, most of which don't even come remotely close to the athleticism of the guys who hardly get off the bench in the NBA.  Henry isn't overly athletic, and will likely be a defensive liability his entire career in the NBA, but the dude would get absolutely abused guarding NBA 4s right now.  ABUSED.

He is going to have to do other things very well to make up for his defensive shortcomings, which he likely will do as he adjusts to the pro game.  But I don't see Henry shooting an especially high percentage from 3 next year. He's a good passer for a big, but most NBA guys are. Not sure what else he is going to do well enough to warrant more than spot minutes as a rookie.   

Look, I'll root for Henry, and I hope he becomes a star.  I just don't think he is anywhere near ready to contribute regularly on an NBA team.  I know he is gone, and if I were him, I'd likely take the money and security too, but he could certainly use another year to grow up as a man and player.  In the unlikely event that things didn't break well for him in his first 2 year...ya never know. Plenty of lottery picks are out of the league in a couple years.   

[GGGG]

I think you are severely underestimating Henry's skills and his ability to grow as an NBA player.  I'm not saying he will be a super-star or anything like that, but he will be a rotation guy from early on and will increase his range over time. 

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I think you are severely underestimating Henry's skills and his ability to grow as an NBA player.  I'm not saying he will be a super-star or anything like that, but he will be a rotation guy from early on and will increase his range over time.

Nah. I'm not underestimating his skills.  He's a really really good offensive player. I just don't think he is remotely ready to guard NBA 4s. 

[Windyplayer]

Eh. Don't misunderstand me, Henry can go pro if he wants and he will likely get drafted between 6-9, which has been long established on here. 

I just don't think he'll see the court much next year.  Maybe even the year after.  Eventually he will probably be a serviceable NBA player and become a rich man, but I just don't think he is "NBA ready", not that most guys are. 

Henry isn't a great defender against college bigs, most of which don't even come remotely close to the athleticism of the guys who hardly get off the bench in the NBA.  Henry isn't overly athletic, and will likely be a defensive liability his entire career in the NBA, but the dude would get absolutely abused guarding NBA 4s right now.  ABUSED.

He is going to have to do other things very well to make up for his defensive shortcomings, which he likely will do as he adjusts to the pro game.  But I don't see Henry shooting an especially high percentage from 3 next year. He's a good passer for a big, but most NBA guys are. Not sure what else he is going to do well enough to warrant more than spot minutes as a rookie.   

Look, I'll root for Henry, and I hope he becomes a star.  I just don't think he is anywhere near ready to contribute regularly on an NBA team.  I know he is gone, and if I were him, I'd likely take the money and security too, but he could certainly use another year to grow up as a man and player.  In the unlikely event that things didn't break well for him in his first 2 year...ya never know. Plenty of lottery picks are out of the league in a couple years.   

I agree with every word of this.

[martyconlonontherun]

Eh. Don't misunderstand me, Henry can go pro if he wants and he will likely get drafted between 6-9, which has been long established on here. 

I just don't think he'll see the court much next year.  Maybe even the year after.  Eventually he will probably be a serviceable NBA player and become a rich man, but I just don't think he is "NBA ready", not that most guys are. 

Henry isn't a great defender against college bigs, most of which don't even come remotely close to the athleticism of the guys who hardly get off the bench in the NBA.  Henry isn't overly athletic, and will likely be a defensive liability his entire career in the NBA, but the dude would get absolutely abused guarding NBA 4s right now.  ABUSED.

He is going to have to do other things very well to make up for his defensive shortcomings, which he likely will do as he adjusts to the pro game.  But I don't see Henry shooting an especially high percentage from 3 next year. He's a good passer for a big, but most NBA guys are. Not sure what else he is going to do well enough to warrant more than spot minutes as a rookie.   

Look, I'll root for Henry, and I hope he becomes a star.  I just don't think he is anywhere near ready to contribute regularly on an NBA team.  I know he is gone, and if I were him, I'd likely take the money and security too, but he could certainly use another year to grow up as a man and player.  In the unlikely event that things didn't break well for him in his first 2 year...ya never know. Plenty of lottery picks are out of the league in a couple years.   

I guess I don't get why him not being NBA ready=staying will be better for him long-term. He will still get 20 minutes a game next year and play twice as many games while learning and developing at the pro-level. Once drafted as a top 10 pick, teams are invested in him long-term. Wojo at most will have him one more year and his main interest is to win, not develop Henry. Yeah, he gets a year of being the man and dominating, but considering he was the man this year would another year really develop him more? He will be playing inferior talent and with inferior coaches (IMO). Honestly, I think there is a better chance of Henry not improving, falling out of the lottery than him improving enough to make up for the lost year of NBA salary/development.

[MU82]

Just for the heck of it, I looked up Dirk Nowitzki's career stats. I am in no way saying Henry will be the next Dirk. But I, like others, have seen them linked in comparisons, so I looked up Dirk.

As a rookie in the lockout-shortened 1998-99 season, Dirk started about half of Dallas' games and averaged 20 mpg. He scored 8.2 ppg and pulled down 3.4 rpg. He shot only 40.5% overall and, most surprisingly, 20.6% from 3-point range. He also was considered a major defensive liability.

By the following season, he had become a solid pro, and by Year 3, he was considered a star on the rise. He has gone on to have a Hall of Fame career even though he has never been much of a defensive player.

Some might not remember it now, but Dirk was an extremely controversial pick by Don Nelson, who was criticized widely both at the time of the pick and when Dirk wasn't an instant star.

Again, I doubt Henry will be anything close to Dirk. None of the "Next Dirks" ever are. But even HoFers like Dirk often struggle to adjust to NBA life.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

I guess I don't get why him not being NBA ready=staying will be better for him long-term. He will still get 20 minutes a game next year and play twice as many games while learning and developing at the pro-level. Once drafted as a top 10 pick, teams are invested in him long-term. Wojo at most will have him one more year and his main interest is to win, not develop Henry. Yeah, he gets a year of being the man and dominating, but considering he was the man this year would another year really develop him more? He will be playing inferior talent and with inferior coaches (IMO). Honestly, I think there is a better chance of Henry not improving, falling out of the lottery than him improving enough to make up for the lost year of NBA salary/development.

I get that counterargument. 

However:

Henry just turned 19 years old. Another year of maturing isn't going to hurt.  He will mature in the NBA too, sure, but with many, many more distractions and running the risk of becoming a forgotten guy if he doesn't perform. It happens every single year.

I don't really think being a top 10 pick means a team is invested in a guy long term.  Sure, they'd prefer their top picks work, but lottery picks spend years in the D league, get thrown in trades to teams that don't get a rats ass about that, get cut, etc., all the flipping time.  This really means nothing.

Henry is going to have a much better supporting cast next year, should he stay at MU.  Sure, he was the guy this year. But he's going to be the guy again next year. 20 and 12 isn't a stretch.  I think he could conceivably increase his draft stock a few spots, and maybe if he really goes off next year, he's got a chance at being a top 3 pick. 

The chances of him falling out the lottery are pretty minimal, IMO.  Only way that happens is if he suffers a significant injury, and if that happens, he'll probably stay in college another year anyway to prove he is healthy again as jr.  He would still only be 20 years old at the start of his Jr year. Its not like we're talking about a 24 year old guy here.

Injuries are always a risk.  Henry could blow his ACL out play in the Vegas summer league, miss all next season and spend the next year in the D league and be a forgotten man. Unlikely, but possible. 

Again, as I've said repeatedly, the choice is Henry's and he is likely gone.  I would likely be gone too, if I were him.  But lets not act like him going pro has no risk associated with it. NBA rookie contracts are guaranteed for 2 years...that's it..2 years.  I suspect HE to bet on himself, and he probably should, but another year at MU isn't likely to hurt him NBA prospects.     

[wadesworld]

Nah. I'm not underestimating his skills.  He's a really really good offensive player. I just don't think he is remotely ready to guard NBA 4s.

Frank Kaminsky was a far worse defensive player than Hank.  Frank's getting 21 mpg guarding 4s and 5s in the NBA.

[Windyplayer]

The chances of him falling out the lottery are pretty minimal, IMO.   

Agreed. NBA was comfortable drafting him based on potential at the start of the season that won't change after next year.

[Marcus92]

This thread has gone from highly speculative (whether or not Henry Ellenson will turn pro following his freshman season) to massively, impossibly speculative (what level of success Henry Ellenson will achieve at the professional level).

Summing up 15+ pages of posts on the first point:

Since Henry is projected as a consensus lottery pick, history suggests that he will declare. The vast majority of players in his position do. But until he either does so or doesn't, nobody knows anything for certain — including quite possibly Henry himself.

On the second point:

Nothing is a sure thing in the NBA. Nothing. Every draft pick is a crap shoot. Former #1 overall Greg Oden never played a full season, logging fewer than 1,000 career points before his body gave out. Meanwhile, nobody — not even the GM responsible for the decision — predicted that Jimmy Butler (a #30 overall pick) would leapfrog his teammate and former #1 pick Derrick Rose to become an All-Star.

You can talk all you want about whether you think he's ready, whose game is similar to his, et cetera. That all means nothing. You don't know. Nobody does. Henry has the skills and potential to be a special player. He also has the potential to suffer a career-ending injury in practice today. Only time will tell what the future holds for him.

[Windyplayer]

Frank Kaminsky was a far worse defensive player than Hank.  Frank's getting 21 mpg guarding 4s and 5s in the NBA.

Valid point, though I would not say "far worse."

[Windyplayer]

You can talk all you want about whether you think he's ready, whose game is similar to his, et cetera. That all means nothing. You don't know. Nobody does.

Yes, you've captured the essence of Scoop and all message boards, by and large.

[Benny B]

Frank Kaminsky was a far worse defensive player than Hank.  Frank's getting 21 mpg guarding 4s and 5s in the NBA.

Frank also stayed in school three years longer than Hank.

[MU82]

I get that counterargument. 

However:

Henry just turned 19 years old. Another year of maturing isn't going to hurt.  He will mature in the NBA too, sure, but with many, many more distractions and running the risk of becoming a forgotten guy if he doesn't perform. It happens every single year.

I don't really think being a top 10 pick means a team is invested in a guy long term.  Sure, they'd prefer their top picks work, but lottery picks spend years in the D league, get thrown in trades to teams that don't get a rats ass about that, get cut, etc., all the flipping time.  This really means nothing.

Henry is going to have a much better supporting cast next year, should he stay at MU.  Sure, he was the guy this year. But he's going to be the guy again next year. 20 and 12 isn't a stretch.  I think he could conceivably increase his draft stock a few spots, and maybe if he really goes off next year, he's got a chance at being a top 3 pick. 

The chances of him falling out the lottery are pretty minimal, IMO.  Only way that happens is if he suffers a significant injury, and if that happens, he'll probably stay in college another year anyway to prove he is healthy again as jr.  He would still only be 20 years old at the start of his Jr year. Its not like we're talking about a 24 year old guy here.

Injuries are always a risk.  Henry could blow his ACL out play in the Vegas summer league, miss all next season and spend the next year in the D league and be a forgotten man. Unlikely, but possible. 

Again, as I've said repeatedly, the choice is Henry's and he is likely gone.  I would likely be gone too, if I were him.  But lets not act like him going pro has no risk associated with it. NBA rookie contracts are guaranteed for 2 years...that's it..2 years.  I suspect HE to bet on himself, and he probably should, but another year at MU isn't likely to hurt him NBA prospects.     

I agree with most of this, but it's immaterial because of what you say in the last paragraph.

One thing I disagree with is the distractions part. NBA players actually face fewer distractions than college players, who have to juggle academics along with what basically is a full-time job as an athlete.

When you are a pro, you CAN have distractions -- you can do the club scene or you can be very visible to fans through community work or you can sign a bazillion autograph. But you mostly control all that. You can choose to open yourself up to distractions or you largely can choose not to.

College athletes aren't supposed to be able to opt out of half of what they are there for. Again, they aren't supposed to be able to.

[Windyplayer]

When you are a pro, you CAN have distractions -- you can do the club scene or you can be very visible to fans through community work or you can sign a bazillion autograph. But you mostly control all that. You can choose to open yourself up to distractions or you largely can choose not to.

I suspect most NBA players, especially 19-year-olds in the League, don't understand this.

[Benny B]

I agree with most of this, but it's immaterial because of what you say in the last paragraph.

One thing I disagree with is the distractions part. NBA players actually face fewer distractions than college players, who have to juggle academics along with what basically is a full-time job as an athlete.

When you are a pro, you CAN have distractions -- you can do the club scene or you can be very visible to fans through community work or you can sign a bazillion autograph. But you mostly control all that. You can choose to open yourself up to distractions or you largely can choose not to.

College athletes aren't supposed to be able to opt out of half of what they are there for. Again, they aren't supposed to be able to.

Not exactly true and/or relevant.

Sure, academics are a "distraction" for an athlete in college... but they've been dealing with these distractions for the better part of a decade by the time they're in college, and - suffice to say - if they're in college (i.e. still eligible), it would seem they've become adequately accustomed to the distraction.  So is it really a distraction at that point?  On the other hand, even the tiniest of "distractions" that come along with being dumped into the real world (with millions in your pocket) is a still a new distraction that forces one to react without having any reference of benefit/consequence.

But that's for the voluntary stuff... there's also the involuntary stuff that one cannot avoid - which is true in both the college and professional ranks - but I would be willing to bet the involuntary distractions at the college level pale in comparison to that which one encounters at the professional level.  Not to mention, one cannot opt out of their contractual obligations to show up for promo/sponsor outings, press conferences, PR events, media availability, etc. lest they want a whole new set of distractions.

But Hank can deal with this.  Again, he has people around him looking out for his best interests... that's a big advantage most 1-and-done'rs don't have.

[MUEng92]

On the second point:

Nothing is a sure thing in the NBA. Nothing. Every draft pick is a crap shoot. Former #1 overall Greg Oden never played a full season, logging fewer than 1,000 career points before his body gave out. Meanwhile, nobody — not even the GM responsible for the decision — predicted that Jimmy Butler (a #30 overall pick) would leapfrog his teammate and former #1 pick Derrick Rose to become an All-Star.

You can talk all you want about whether you think he's ready, whose game is similar to his, et cetera. That all means nothing. You don't know. Nobody does. Henry has the skills and potential to be a special player. He also has the potential to suffer a career-ending injury in practice today. Only time will tell what the future holds for him.

So to further summarize Henry's NBA career potential:

Complete Bust <= Henry <= Hall of Fame

[The Lens]

Not exactly true and/or relevant.

Sure, academics are a "distraction" for an athlete in college... but they've been dealing with these distractions for the better part of a decade by the time they're in college, and - suffice to say - if they're in college (i.e. still eligible), it would seem they've become adequately accustomed to the distraction.  So is it really a distraction at that point?  On the other hand, even the tiniest of "distractions" that come along with being dumped into the real world (with millions in your pocket) is a still a new distraction that forces one to react without having any reference of benefit/consequence.

But that's for the voluntary stuff... there's also the involuntary stuff that one cannot avoid - which is true in both the college and professional ranks - but I would be willing to bet the involuntary distractions at the college level pale in comparison to that which one encounters at the professional level.  Not to mention, one cannot opt out of their contractual obligations to show up for promo/sponsor outings, press conferences, PR events, media availability, etc. lest they want a whole new set of distractions.

But Hank can deal with this.  Again, he has people around him looking out for his best interests... that's a big advantage most 1-and-done'rs don't have.

You would be amazed at how boring the lives of most professional athletes are.  For every time you hear about Blake Griffin punching out his trainer buddy, there 10,000 incidents of guys in hotel rooms watching game film on iPads, guys calling assistant coaches at midnight to get more shots up, etc.

Not to mention, the NBA has almost a 1:1 player to coach ratio, all of the worries are about distractions are very much overblown.  99% of professional athletes are just that, professional.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Eh. Don't misunderstand me, Henry can go pro if he wants and he will likely get drafted between 6-9, which has been long established on here. 

I just don't think he'll see the court much next year.  Maybe even the year after.  Eventually he will probably be a serviceable NBA player and become a rich man, but I just don't think he is "NBA ready", not that most guys are. 

Henry isn't a great defender against college bigs, most of which don't even come remotely close to the athleticism of the guys who hardly get off the bench in the NBA.  Henry isn't overly athletic, and will likely be a defensive liability his entire career in the NBA, but the dude would get absolutely abused guarding NBA 4s right now.  ABUSED.

He is going to have to do other things very well to make up for his defensive shortcomings, which he likely will do as he adjusts to the pro game.  But I don't see Henry shooting an especially high percentage from 3 next year. He's a good passer for a big, but most NBA guys are. Not sure what else he is going to do well enough to warrant more than spot minutes as a rookie.   

Look, I'll root for Henry, and I hope he becomes a star.  I just don't think he is anywhere near ready to contribute regularly on an NBA team.  I know he is gone, and if I were him, I'd likely take the money and security too, but he could certainly use another year to grow up as a man and player.  In the unlikely event that things didn't break well for him in his first 2 year...ya never know. Plenty of lottery picks are out of the league in a couple years.   

Pretty much where I am.  Doesn't have the quickness to guard a 4, certainly not a 3.  I'm not sure he has the range to pull a guy out consistently, which means he will have to do something mid range or down low, where that's going to be a chore.  Feels like not many minutes next year (if he goes) and not too much production. 

[Da 'Lanche]

I'm starting to come to the conclusion that our fanbase is so unfamiliar with having a "one and done" type talent playing at Marquette University, that we have no idea what that talent looks like in action.   What did we all expect that the kid would come right in and AVERAGE a double-double???  (Oops, he is doing that).   

The pro game is completely different in so many ways than the college game....how one translates to the other is not clearly correlated and its why some guys who slay it in college can't make it in the NBA and why some who are good college players surprise in the pros (look no further than Wes).

The dude is amazing and he just turned 19.    The only "eye test" that matters is the ones being administered by NBA scouts...and they have him as a lottery pick.

D-league next year....seriously?