Ellenson: One and Done or not?

[GGGG]

Pretty sure this one is known as one of the least reliable mocks. draftexpress is generally the best (has Henry at 6).

Any mock draft that puts Grayson Allen ahead of Henry is completely unreliable.

[KampusFoods]

Any mock draft that puts Grayson Allen ahead of Henry is completely unreliable.

Yep, draftexpress has Grayson at 25.... in the 2017 draft.

[wadesworld]

I know you keep saying this and there was a point in time at the beginning of the season and during his recruiting process when you were asbolutely correct but do not underestimate how close he is with his family, just sayin'

He is very close with his family, and he'll use his cool millions of dollars to pay off any types of debts they may have and buy them a nice house to enjoy the rest of their lives in.

[mu-rara]

He is very close with his family, and he'll use his cool millions of dollars to pay off any types of debts they may have and buy them a nice house to enjoy the rest of their lives in.

I have no idea because I don't know his family. 

Many of you assume $$ is the only factor.   What if it's not?

What if his parents tell him it's his choice.  What if he is having a blast and feels that he has a chance to be NCAA POY next year, while really accomplishing some audacious team goals? 

I think it's 93% he is gone, but none of us know.

[Benny B]

Let's say Henry goes #6, for discussion purposes, if he enters the 2016 draft.

Taking the rookie scale at face value:

Year 1 - $2.931M
Year 2 - $3.063M
Opt 3 - $3.195M
Opt 4 - $4.051M
Qual 5 - $5.404M
Total = $18.644M

If he delayed until 2017 but remained #6 overall, the five year total rises nominally to $19.298M, i.e. he would make an additional $654,000 over five years by delaying his entry into the league.  So there really isn't any financial incentive in staying in school if he's going to be a mid-level lottery pick.

If HE doesn't declare this year, publicly, he'll probably say that he wants to win an NCAA Championship or play one more year with his brother, etc.; however, the real reason would be to work on his game.

Of course, lottery picks are only two-year contracts, meaning if HE flames out after year 2, he's still guaranteed at least $6 million over the next two years.  However, if HE believes he could improve to being a top 3 pick, he would improve his 5-year earnings to $24-32M, i.e. if he can improve his draft position in 2017, it's worth up to an additional $13.4M over five years.

However, as astute MU alums know all too well (lately), the real money isn't in lottery contracts, it's in extensions and/or free agency.  Of course, delaying his entry into the draft until 2017 means delaying his entry into FA by a year; however, if HE believes he has not hit a ceiling in college, delaying his entry into the draft may increase his chances of making it to FA.  Even lottery picks will flame out and more times than not, it's the early entrants when they do... could they have improved their career prospects by waiting another year?  Perhaps.  But they also run the risk of exposing themselves in their sophomore or junior years (see: James, Dominic).  It's a calculated risk, no doubt; however, only a clear-headed player can truly judge whether their confidence/talent levels are requisite for a long career in the NBA, and fortunately, Henry seems like he has his head on straight (not to mention, he's surrounded by people looking out for his best interest, not their own).

In short, $6M is a heck of a lot of money simply for playing a game; but if you're not quite ready for the league (which is not an observation regarding HE, strictly a hypothetical), staying in college that extra year might be worth anywhere from $18M to $God-only-knows-what over your career.

Henry will make the right decision in time.  Regardless, this year has been great for him... and despite my wish that it could have been better for the team, I hope that there will be lasting benefit to HE's presence even if he is 1-and-done.

[bilsu]

The biggest factor for staying might be that he likes playing for Wojo and of course with his teammates. I have no idea, if he likes playing for Wojo.

[Windyplayer]

Let's say Henry goes #6, for discussion purposes, if he enters the 2016 draft.

Taking the rookie scale at face value:

Year 1 - $2.931M
Year 2 - $3.063M
Opt 3 - $3.195M
Opt 4 - $4.051M
Qual 5 - $5.404M
Total = $18.644M

If he delayed until 2017 but remained #6 overall, the five year total rises nominally to $19.298M, i.e. he would make an additional $654,000 over five years by delaying his entry into the league.  So there really isn't any financial incentive in staying in school if he's going to be a mid-level lottery pick.

If HE doesn't declare this year, publicly, he'll probably say that he wants to win an NCAA Championship or play one more year with his brother, etc.; however, the real reason would be to work on his game.

Of course, lottery picks are only two-year contracts, meaning if HE flames out after year 2, he's still guaranteed at least $6 million over the next two years.  However, if HE believes he could improve to being a top 3 pick, he would improve his 5-year earnings to $24-32M, i.e. if he can improve his draft position in 2017, it's worth up to an additional $13.4M over five years.

However, as astute MU alums know all too well (lately), the real money isn't in lottery contracts, it's in extensions and/or free agency.  Of course, delaying his entry into the draft until 2017 means delaying his entry into FA by a year; however, if HE believes he has not hit a ceiling in college, delaying his entry into the draft may increase his chances of making it to FA.  Even lottery picks will flame out and more times than not, it's the early entrants when they do... could they have improved their career prospects by waiting another year?  Perhaps.  But they also run the risk of exposing themselves in their sophomore or junior years (see: James, Dominic).  It's a calculated risk, no doubt; however, only a clear-headed player can truly judge whether their confidence/talent levels are requisite for a long career in the NBA, and fortunately, Henry seems like he has his head on straight (not to mention, he's surrounded by people looking out for his best interest, not their own).

In short, $6M is a heck of a lot of money simply for playing a game; but if you're not quite ready for the league (which is not an observation regarding HE, strictly a hypothetical), staying in college that extra year might be worth anywhere from $18M to $God-only-knows-what over your career.

Henry will make the right decision in time.  Regardless, this year has been great for him... and despite my wish that it could have been better for the team, I hope that there will be lasting benefit to HE's presence even if he is 1-and-done.

Great post. Thanks.

[wadesworld]

When you are a guaranteed first round draft pick the most likely way to earn the most money in your career is to get into the NBA and get to your second contract as soon as possible.

Hank is a guaranteed first round pick.  The only way Hank does not earn millions of dollars from playing a game is if he comes back for another year that he does not need to make millions of dollars from playing a game and shreds his knee or worse.

[wadesworld]

Oh, and he gowne.

[Herman Cain]

Pretty sure this one is known as one of the least reliable mocks. draftexpress is generally the best (has Henry at 6).

All of these Mock drafts are unreliable. For example Dayonta Davis of Michigan State  is not even listed on Draft Express and neither is Ben Bentil.  For whatever it is worth the Draft net has a very detailed scouting report on Henry that is worth reading.

Net Net he will be drafted but I would not take stock on any of these services. The members of MU Scoop could put together a more reliable Mock draft than most of these services.

[wadesworld]

All of these Mock drafts are unreliable. For example Dayonta Davis of Michigan State  is not even listed on Draft Express and neither is Ben Bentil.  For whatever it is worth the Draft net has a very detailed scouting report on Henry that is worth reading.

Net Net he will be drafted but I would not take stock on any of these services. The members of MU Scoop could put together a more reliable Mock draft than most of these services.

That's because neither Daytona Davis or Ben Bentil will be in this year's NBA Draft.

[GGGG]

All of these Mock drafts are unreliable. For example Dayonta Davis of Michigan State  is not even listed on Draft Express and neither is Ben Bentil.  For whatever it is worth the Draft net has a very detailed scouting report on Henry that is worth reading.

Net Net he will be drafted but I would not take stock on any of these services. The members of MU Scoop could put together a more reliable Mock draft than most of these services.

Yeah...that's not accurate either.

[brewcity77]

That's because neither Daytona Davis or Ben Bentil will be in this year's NBA Draft.

It wouldn't surprise me to see Bentil there. Not much more he can prove in college.

[KampusFoods]

All of these Mock drafts are unreliable. For example Dayonta Davis of Michigan State  is not even listed on Draft Express and neither is Ben Bentil.  For whatever it is worth the Draft net has a very detailed scouting report on Henry that is worth reading.

Net Net he will be drafted but I would not take stock on any of these services. The members of MU Scoop could put together a more reliable Mock draft than most of these services.

Nope

[WarriorPride68]

That's because neither Daytona Davis or Ben Bentil will be in this year's NBA Draft.

Right. Draft express had Davis going top 10 in 2017 & Bentil top 50 in 2017

[Herman Cain]

That's because neither Daytona Davis or Ben Bentil will be in this year's NBA Draft.

Why do you think that.

[KampusFoods]

Right. Draft express had Davis going top 10 in 2017 & Bentil top 50 in 2017

Bentil's stock has probably suffered from playing in the shadow of Kris Dunn, however his game has probably improved as a result of playing alongside Kris Dunn. He might get drafted this year if he chooses to go but it would be interesting to watch him next year as the number 1 focus of the opponents defensive gameplan.

[Herman Cain]

Bentil's stock has probably suffered from playing in the shadow of Kris Dunn, however his game has probably improved as a result of playing alongside Kris Dunn. He might get drafted this year if he chooses to go but it would be interesting to watch him next year as the number 1 focus of the opponents defensive gameplan.

I have watched most of Providence games this year. Bentil put hard work in to improve.  Bentil has consistently dominated . He has  incredible footwork and is an excellent shooter.  I think he is one of the most attractive college players out there.

[real chili 83]

Let's say Henry goes #6, for discussion purposes, if he enters the 2016 draft.

Taking the rookie scale at face value:

Year 1 - $2.931M
Year 2 - $3.063M
Opt 3 - $3.195M
Opt 4 - $4.051M
Qual 5 - $5.404M
Total = $18.644M

If he delayed until 2017 but remained #6 overall, the five year total rises nominally to $19.298M, i.e. he would make an additional $654,000 over five years by delaying his entry into the league.  So there really isn't any financial incentive in staying in school if he's going to be a mid-level lottery pick.

If HE doesn't declare this year, publicly, he'll probably say that he wants to win an NCAA Championship or play one more year with his brother, etc.; however, the real reason would be to work on his game.

Of course, lottery picks are only two-year contracts, meaning if HE flames out after year 2, he's still guaranteed at least $6 million over the next two years.  However, if HE believes he could improve to being a top 3 pick, he would improve his 5-year earnings to $24-32M, i.e. if he can improve his draft position in 2017, it's worth up to an additional $13.4M over five years.

However, as astute MU alums know all too well (lately), the real money isn't in lottery contracts, it's in extensions and/or free agency.  Of course, delaying his entry into the draft until 2017 means delaying his entry into FA by a year; however, if HE believes he has not hit a ceiling in college, delaying his entry into the draft may increase his chances of making it to FA.  Even lottery picks will flame out and more times than not, it's the early entrants when they do... could they have improved their career prospects by waiting another year?  Perhaps.  But they also run the risk of exposing themselves in their sophomore or junior years (see: James, Dominic).  It's a calculated risk, no doubt; however, only a clear-headed player can truly judge whether their confidence/talent levels are requisite for a long career in the NBA, and fortunately, Henry seems like he has his head on straight (not to mention, he's surrounded by people looking out for his best interest, not their own).

In short, $6M is a heck of a lot of money simply for playing a game; but if you're not quite ready for the league (which is not an observation regarding HE, strictly a hypothetical), staying in college that extra year might be worth anywhere from $18M to $God-only-knows-what over your career.

Henry will make the right decision in time.  Regardless, this year has been great for him... and despite my wish that it could have been better for the team, I hope that there will be lasting benefit to HE's presence even if he is 1-and-done.

So, if he can reasonably see himself be a top 3 pick in 2017, versus a run of the mill lottery pick in 2016, he should order a second helping of the Marquette Special.

[Windyplayer]

I have watched most of Providence games this year. Bentil put hard work in to improve.  Bentil has consistently dominated . He has  incredible footwork and is an excellent shooter.  I think he is one of the most attractive college players out there.

Bentil is my favorite college basketball player this year.

[Windyplayer]

a run of the mill lottery pick in 2016

Haha, nice phrasing.

[WarriorPride68]

Bentil is my favorite college basketball player this year.

I hope Bentil goes pro so Providence can be as awful as this year's St.Johns

[Benny B]

When you are a guaranteed first round draft pick the most likely way to earn the most money in your career is to get into the NBA and get to your second contract as soon as possible.

Hank is a guaranteed first round pick.  The only way Hank does not earn millions of dollars from playing a game is if he comes back for another year that he does not need to make millions of dollars from playing a game and shreds his knee or worse.

Honest question here (I don't know the answer)...

How many times over the past 25 years has a sure-fire lottery pick returned to school for an additional year and suffered a career-ending (or severely-hampering) injury?

Regardless, I would suspect that very few do because athletes know when their body is prone to injuries of this nature.  For example, if you're a guy like TJ Ford or Greg Oden, and you have known since high school that your body only has a few years in it, if that even, before it starts breaking down, then sure... you're going to enter the draft as soon as you can.  So I imagine that all of these guys with bodies that are prone to injury (and they know it) are entering as soon as possible, while guys like Jared Sullinger didn't start seeing red flags until after the NBA docs pointed them out to him (and probably would have entered early had he known earlier).

On the other hand, I can't imagine very many athletes are entering the draft as soon as they can primarily because they've been reading stories about Bobby Hurley or Maurice Stokes. 

[Smokin' Jae]

When you are a guaranteed first round draft pick the most likely way to earn the most money in your career is to get into the NBA and get to your second contract as soon as possible.

Hank is a guaranteed first round pick.  The only way Hank does not earn
millions of dollars from playing a game is if he comes back for another year that he does not need to make millions of dollars from playing a game and shreds his knee or worse.

Yeah just like what happened to Kris Dunn when he shredded his knee... The kid is going to be fine, if he comes back next year he's basically deferring on $2 million. The money will be there and he knows that, he knows he's good enough, cat wants to play in the tourney and is confident that the money will be there should he decide to come back to school.

[The Lens]

Yeah just like what happened to Kris Dunn when he shredded his knee... The kid is going to be fine, if he comes back next year he's basically deferring on $2 million. The money will be there and he knows that, he knows he's good enough, cat wants to play in the tourney and is confident that the money will be there should he decide to come back to school.

Fans care about NCAAs a lot more than players do.