COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[Jockey]

oh I'm well aware they were and are lying their a$$e$ off.....that was meant to be part of my satire, however it seems like I should definitely not write for the Onion

I think I miss your satire often, just because you are such a science and data-driven guy (which I really enjoy as it is too often in short supply on Scoop).

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I, too, can selectively narrow my data sets to seemingly draw a conclusion based on a political opinion I already had. Perhaps I should write for the NYT?

Worldest largest country stopped virus cold, why authoritarian governments are the answer to pandemics
Byline: mu03Eng of the New York Times

Well in one sense you are correct: I think most everyone agrees that authoritarian governments had advantages in containing the pandemic as they could enforce their will in ways free societies couldn't. Even the non-authoritarian government in Asia generally had a leg up because (broad brush coming) their citizens tend to comply with governmental orders. So you aren't wrong.

Not sure how that is dismissive of the NYT story, however. They are showing a commonality between the countries with high rates of infection and at the very least implying it is partially due to the leaders of those countries. Do you disagree that there is a probable cause and effect? Do you disagree that the wannabe Stongman type of leaders that were dismissive of the virus resulted in higher infection and death rates in their countries?

[ZiggysFryBoy]

It's a miracle!

https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/wuhan-tests-nearly-10-million-people-finds-only-104439398.html?__twitter_impression=true

[mu03eng]

Well in one sense you are correct: I think most everyone agrees that authoritarian governments had advantages in containing the pandemic as they could enforce their will in ways free societies couldn't. Even the non-authoritarian government in Asia generally had a leg up because (broad brush coming) their citizens tend to comply with governmental orders. So you aren't wrong.

Not sure how that is dismissive of the NYT story, however. They are showing a commonality between the countries with high rates of infection and at the very least implying it is partially due to the leaders of those countries. Do you disagree that there is a probable cause and effect? Do you disagree that the wannabe Stongman type of leaders that were dismissive of the virus resulted in higher infection and death rates in their countries?

I do disagree, because he argument is taking to hypothesis and conflating them(classic correlation instead of causation). The two are: if your government is a strongman type then your virus response is weaker.....if your government is dismissive of the virus your virus response is weaker. My point was there are strong man governments that have been relatively successful against the virus and ones that have not been....that attribute seems to have limited bearing on the result. The largest impact seems to be how serious you took it. Iran has a strong man type government (not in the illustrative sense but in the practical sense) and were devastated by the virus, why were they not included in this analysis? China has a strong man government but did well according to them....do they not count? The point is that this is political analysis dressed as some sort of data driven determination and it's not. Should not Venezula be overrun by this disease by this standard(maybe they are haven't been paying attention to them)?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I do disagree, because he argument is taking to hypothesis and conflating them(classic correlation instead of causation). The two are: if your government is a strongman type then your virus response is weaker.....if your government is dismissive of the virus your virus response is weaker. My point was there are strong man governments that have been relatively successful against the virus and ones that have not been....that attribute seems to have limited bearing on the result. The largest impact seems to be how serious you took it. Iran has a strong man type government (not in the illustrative sense but in the practical sense) and were devastated by the virus, why were they not included in this analysis? China has a strong man government but did well according to them....do they not count? The point is that this is political analysis dressed as some sort of data driven determination and it's not. Should not Venezula be overrun by this disease by this standard(maybe they are haven't been paying attention to them)?

Sorry, the link did not come through in my original post so you might now have seem the article, but it addresses Iran as well as Mexico:

"All four leaders also flouted guidance on personal protective measures early on, refusing to wear a mask or continuing to shake hands.

"The pattern is apparent beyond just those countries, too. Iran — a country with a theocratic supreme leader — is fifth in case growth over the past two weeks among countries with at least 50 million people. Health experts say the government did not heed warnings about reopening too quickly. Mexico — where President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is a left-wing populist whose government published posters saying the virus “no es grave” (is not serious) — is sixth."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/02/briefing/coronavirus-populist-leaders.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200602&instance_id=19010&nl=the-morning&regi_id=98421546&segment_id=29853&te=1&user_id=65badcb7c07b4cd4815fe5e758510381

So it basically agrees with you that it is a function of not taking it seriously--which whether you believe China's data or not I don't think you can say that they didn't take it seriously at least once it was its existence was out in the open--and that these strongman types commonly didn't take it seriously.

Venezuela...either their data is seriously wrong (17 deaths with almost a million tests performed??) or they should be held up as the poster child for excellence in pandemic management.  I'm going to guess it is the former.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I attended a virtual talk on the Covid situation.  The speaker was a MD and used to lead a major govt health organization.  I definitely didn't state things with medical precision as these are notes from a business guy.

- Don't look as hard at cases here forward, we are catching a lot more cases so shouldn't over-react to these fluctuations.  Hospitalizations much more important at this stage to understand severity of outbreak.  They continue to come down which is great news.

- Expects a respite this summer...likely though our case levels normalize somewhere near the levels we are seeing (due to reopening + more social contact).  Since we wont achieve a collapse like SK or Germany, this makes the fall a little riskier (let our guard down coming off a higher base).  So need to prepare. Need better contact tracing.  We as a country have fixed the ability to run sufficient testing...now need to work on the ability to collect enough samples.  The issue is that once we have cold, flu + covid in the fall, this can become a logistical nightmare without more capacity or easier ways to collect samples.

- Has something changed with the virus.  No - some mutation but not likely a major drift - good and bad as it is good for a vaccine (can design for a steady state) but likely is not changing for the better or weakening.  Seasonal effect benefits are likely starting which is making the environment less extreme (was skeptical of the Italy 'weakening' or some recent findings that the virus is more aggressive than prior).

- Biggest learning thus far about the virus is around the vascular impacts - clotting & impacts to make red blood cells sticky.  Has pulled forward treatment to look for blood clots in legs and elsewhere, ramped up the use of anticoagulants and anti-platelet drugs and has pushed intubation to later in the treatment.  Data forthcoming, but doctors have embraced this and seeing positive impacts.

- LT impacts due to hospitalization/care and post viral syndromes still being understood.  It feels like they are higher with this virus but we do not understand how many people have had the virus, so it is tough to say. 

[mu03eng]

Sorry, the link did not come through in my original post so you might now have seem the article, but it addresses Iran as well as Mexico:

"All four leaders also flouted guidance on personal protective measures early on, refusing to wear a mask or continuing to shake hands.

"The pattern is apparent beyond just those countries, too. Iran — a country with a theocratic supreme leader — is fifth in case growth over the past two weeks among countries with at least 50 million people. Health experts say the government did not heed warnings about reopening too quickly. Mexico — where President Andrés Manuel López Obrador is a left-wing populist whose government published posters saying the virus “no es grave” (is not serious) — is sixth."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/02/briefing/coronavirus-populist-leaders.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200602&instance_id=19010&nl=the-morning&regi_id=98421546&segment_id=29853&te=1&user_id=65badcb7c07b4cd4815fe5e758510381

So it basically agrees with you that it is a function of not taking it seriously--which whether you believe China's data or not I don't think you can say that they didn't take it seriously at least once it was its existence was out in the open--and that these strongman types commonly didn't take it seriously.

Venezuela...either their data is seriously wrong (17 deaths with almost a million tests performed??) or they should be held up as the poster child for excellence in pandemic management.  I'm going to guess it is the former.

All kind of proves my point, regardless of the leader, if you took it seriously you did better against the virus. If you want to make the argument that strong man types tend to be dismissive of these types of crisis which then triggered the non-serious outcomes, that's fine. What it doesn't change is that the NYT is making an argument against strong men and trying to basis it in data so it looks like analysis instead of opinion.

BTW, I'm not for or against strong men types...it is a leadership style that can be used for good and evil....but I am against pushing an agenda disguised by "science"

[MU82]

I attended a virtual talk on the Covid situation.  The speaker was a MD and used to lead a major govt health organization.  I definitely didn't state things with medical precision as these are notes from a business guy.

- Don't look as hard at cases here forward, we are catching a lot more cases so shouldn't over-react to these fluctuations.  Hospitalizations much more important at this stage to understand severity of outbreak.  They continue to come down which is great news.

- Expects a respite this summer...likely though our case levels normalize somewhere near the levels we are seeing (due to reopening + more social contact).  Since we wont achieve a collapse like SK or Germany, this makes the fall a little riskier (let our guard down coming off a higher base).  So need to prepare. Need better contact tracing.  We as a country have fixed the ability to run sufficient testing...now need to work on the ability to collect enough samples.  The issue is that once we have cold, flu + covid in the fall, this can become a logistical nightmare without more capacity or easier ways to collect samples.

- Has something changed with the virus.  No - some mutation but not likely a major drift - good and bad as it is good for a vaccine (can design for a steady state) but likely is not changing for the better or weakening.  Seasonal effect benefits are likely starting which is making the environment less extreme (was skeptical of the Italy 'weakening' or some recent findings that the virus is more aggressive than prior).

- Biggest learning thus far about the virus is around the vascular impacts - clotting & impacts to make red blood cells sticky.  Has pulled forward treatment to look for blood clots in legs and elsewhere, ramped up the use of anticoagulants and anti-platelet drugs and has pushed intubation to later in the treatment.  Data forthcoming, but doctors have embraced this and seeing positive impacts.

- LT impacts due to hospitalization/care and post viral syndromes still being understood.  It feels like they are higher with this virus but we do not understand how many people have had the virus, so it is tough to say.

Thanks for sharing this. Knowledge = power. We are learning more about COVID every day, and still so much to learn.

Only thing I have to add is that, unfortunately, both hospitalizations and deaths are up in NC. We opened up some about a month ago, and went to Phase 2 on May 22. Hoping it's just a blip. We'll probably know a lot more in a week or two.

[Pakuni]

Apologies if this was posted already ... Meta-analysis shows masks, distancing significantly reduce rate of transmission.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31183-1/fulltext

[MU82]

Apologies if this was posted already ... Meta-analysis shows masks, distancing significantly reduce rate of transmission.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31183-1/fulltext

RELATED - this news just broke minutes ago:

Gov. Roy Cooper on Tuesday rejected the Republican National Committee’s request for a full convention in Charlotte, sending organizers scrambling a day ahead of their self-imposed deadline to decide whether to take the convention elsewhere.

The governor told RNC officials that face coverings and social distancing are “a necessity” as they plan a convention during the novel coronavirus pandemic. Republican leaders had asked for a convention without them as North Carolina begins to reopen its economy.

“As much as we want the conditions surrounding COVID-19 to be favorable enough for you to hold the convention you describe in late August, it is very unlikely,” Cooper wrote RNC officials. “Neither public health officials nor I will risk the health and safety of North Carolinians by providing the guarantees you seek.”

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/rnc-2020/article243198906.html?

It's the only decision that makes sense. Trump was demanding a guarantee that the RNC have a full arena, with no social distancing and no facemasks. There is absolutely no way any responsible governor or medical expert could provide such a guarantee in the middle of a pandemic.

So either Trump and the RNC will agree to be responsible, or they are free to move to another state. It's entirely their choice.

The DNC already has acknowledged it might have to make major adjustments, and possibly even will have to do a virtual convention.

Nothing will be decided at either convention. Both are spectacles. It would be irresponsible to put lives at risk for political celebrations.

Trump is pissed, because he wants the big coronation, Narcissist Fest 2020. As Mick famously sang, "You can't always get what you want during a global pandemic."

[GooooMarquette]

RELATED - this news just broke minutes ago:

Gov. Roy Cooper on Tuesday rejected the Republican National Committee’s request for a full convention in Charlotte, sending organizers scrambling a day ahead of their self-imposed deadline to decide whether to take the convention elsewhere.

The governor told RNC officials that face coverings and social distancing are “a necessity” as they plan a convention during the novel coronavirus pandemic. Republican leaders had asked for a convention without them as North Carolina begins to reopen its economy.

“As much as we want the conditions surrounding COVID-19 to be favorable enough for you to hold the convention you describe in late August, it is very unlikely,” Cooper wrote RNC officials. “Neither public health officials nor I will risk the health and safety of North Carolinians by providing the guarantees you seek.”

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/rnc-2020/article243198906.html?

It's the only decision that makes sense. Trump was demanding a guarantee that the RNC have a full arena, with no social distancing and no facemasks. There is absolutely no way any responsible governor or medical expert could provide such a guarantee in the middle of a pandemic.

So either Trump and the RNC will agree to be responsible, or they are free to move to another state. It's entirely their choice.

The DNC already has acknowledged it might have to make major adjustments, and possibly even will have to do a virtual convention.

Nothing will be decided at either convention. Both are spectacles. It would be irresponsible to put lives at risk for political celebrations.

Trump is pissed, because he wants the big coronation, Narcissist Fest 2020. As Mick famously sang, "You can't always get what you want during a global pandemic."

The rational approach would be to cancel the entire conventions, and perhaps give each party equal airtime for in-studio "convention-type" rah rah speeches. I suspect Biden would agree to that, but can't imagine Trump giving up a chance for a cheering crowd.

As for the kind of things that typically are actually decided in back rooms at a convention (the specific nuances of the party platform and such), that can all be done virtually or in conference rooms at the parties' offices.

[MU82]

The rational approach would be to cancel the entire conventions, and perhaps give each party equal airtime for in-studio "convention-type" rah rah speeches. I suspect Biden would agree to that, but can't imagine Trump giving up a chance for a cheering crowd.

As for the kind of things that typically are actually decided in back rooms at a convention (the specific nuances of the party platform and such), that can all be done virtually or in conference rooms at the parties' offices.

Rational? He wants people chanting his name, as well as assorted insults aimed at his massive enemies list. He wants Narcissist Fest 2020.

I hope Jacksonville enjoys it, as well as the massive COVID-19 hit to follow.

[WarriorDad]

Rational? He wants people chanting his name, as well as assorted insults aimed at his massive enemies list. He wants Narcissist Fest 2020.

I hope Jacksonville enjoys it, as well as the massive COVID-19 hit to follow.

That's really terrible.

OK, will try again to be balanced which you will hate and immediately label me a Trump supporter or a non-Democrat.  Both wrong.

When voting was done in Wisconsin, massive outbreak predicted here.  Did not happen.  Liberty university open up with prediction so of massive outbreak.  Didn't happen.  Florida.  Didn't happen.   Why do I sense you are cheering for these bad outcomes?  In fact, did you just not say above you HOPE Jacksonville has a massive COVID 19 outbreak  What kind of compassionate person hopes for that?  Hopes people get sick? 

[wadesworld]

It's a miracle!

https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/wuhan-tests-nearly-10-million-people-finds-only-104439398.html?__twitter_impression=true

Wait. So now we want to believe China?

Now THAT is funny!

[warriorchick]

It's a miracle!

https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/wuhan-tests-nearly-10-million-people-finds-only-104439398.html?__twitter_impression=true

[Lennys Tap]

I hope Jacksonville enjoys it, as well as the massive COVID-19 hit to follow.

I certainly hope that by August a political convention won’t spark a massive COVID-19 hit. If it does the Republicans will have blood on their hands. How massive do you think the COVID-19 hit will be across the country due to the protests in scores of cities while the virus is still rampant?

[mu03eng]

Rational? He wants people chanting his name, as well as assorted insults aimed at his massive enemies list. He wants Narcissist Fest 2020.

I hope Jacksonville enjoys it, as well as the massive COVID-19 hit to follow.

I'd wait to make such a prediction until we see if there are outbreaks from the protests.

[GooooMarquette]

I'd wait to make such a prediction until we see if there are outbreaks from the protests.

Perhaps. But the protests are occurring in the open air, where the experts have already told us there is a lower risk of spread. If they hold the convention in a full arena, it would be a different situation.

If they were to attempt a convention, they would probably mitigate the risk by spreading 20k people around an 80k seat stadium.

[mu03eng]

Perhaps. But the protests are occurring in the open air, where the experts have already told us there is a lower risk of spread. If they hold the convention in a full arena, it would be a different situation.

If they were to attempt a convention, they would probably mitigate the risk by spreading 20k people around an 80k seat stadium.

They could do an open air convention for sure.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

I hope Jacksonville enjoys it, as well as the massive COVID-19 hit to follow.

Fuvking ghoul.

[MU82]

Charlotte officially will not be the site of the RNC.

President Donald Trump said he is moving the Republican National Convention from Charlotte, hours after N.C. Gov. Roy Cooper said he couldn’t guarantee that the August event would be at full capacity due to the coronavirus.

In a tweet Tuesday night, Trump said: “Had long planned to have the Republican National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina, a place I love. Now, @NC_Governor Roy Cooper and his representatives refuse to guarantee that we can have use of the Spectrum Arena - Spend millions of dollars, have everybody arrive, and then tell them they will not be able to gain entry.

“Governor Cooper is still in Shelter-In-Place Mode, and not allowing us to occupy the arena as originally anticipated and promised. Would have showcased beautiful North Carolina to the World, and brought in hundreds of ..millions of dollars, and jobs, for the State.

“Because of @NC_Governor, we are now forced to seek another State to host the 2020 Republican National Convention.”

Cooper responded on Twitter with a similar message that he had delivered throughout the day.

“We have been committed to a safe RNC convention in North Carolina and it’s unfortunate they never agreed to scale down and make changes to keep people safe. Protecting public health and safety during this pandemic is a priority,” Cooper tweeted Tuesday night.

Cooper said Tuesday that he could not guarantee the “full convention” envisioned by Trump and convention organizers that included 19,000 people in attendance at the Spectrum Center and nearby bars and restaurants operating at capacity. Cooper said it was “very unlikely” that Republicans could have the convention they had envisioned and offered to work on a scaled-down version.

First ... let's do some fact-checking.

Lie #1: "Governor Cooper is still in Shelter-In-Place Mode"

We have been in Phase 2 of our re-opening since May 22, and most business have re-opened. As I said in another thread, I met several of my friends at a brewery for our weekly craft-beer get-together just a few days ago.

Cooper has been re-opening the state despite a rising number of COVID hospitalizations and no downturn in deaths. In other words, ahead of the benchmarks Trump himself had laid out before he did a 180 and declared victory.

Lie #2: "not allowing us to occupy the arena as originally anticipated and promised"

In making excuse after excuse for his horrible response to the pandemic, Trump and his sycophants have said a zillion times there was no way they could have it was coming. But Cooper and other North Carolina leaders, when they agreed to host the RNC 2 years ago (when there were no other serious bidders), were supposed to know a pandemic was coming? Okay then.

Lie #3: "Because of @NC_Governor ... "

Actually, the decision was made by Trump and Trump alone, and it was because he didn't want to follow his own guidelines for dealing with a global pandemic.

Trump asked for a guarantee - 2 1/2 months in advance - that the RNC would be allowed to pack an indoor arena with nearly 20K people, saying that he absolutely would not accept any requirement that convention-goers wear masks or use social-distancing.

As everybody knows, the best way to spread the coronavirus is through people breathing on each other, indoors, in close contact with one another. The RNC has the look of a so-called "super-spreader event."

The NBA and NHL are planning to play games without fans in the stands for this exact reason. So how could NC guarantee a packed Spectrum Center for a political convention?

It's why the DNC is already discussing numerous options for what it will do in Milwaukee in August. Unlike Trump, who is desperate to stage Narcissist Fest 2020 with tens of thousands of fans chanting his name, Biden isn't making ridiculous demands of Milwaukee. One of them cares about the health of Americans; the other cares about himself, as always.

I was on the record numerous times as supporting Charlotte hosting the RNC. I liked the idea of rich Republicans coming here and spending their money in my community. Even after the pandemic hit America, I was still hopeful that the convention would take place. Like all communities, we can use the jobs and the money.

But it was Trump who demanded a guarantee that couldn't possibly be made by a responsible governor.

BTW, I do not blame the RNC for seeking some kind of assurances. Wherever the convention is held, they will have to make a multimillion-dollar commitment in infrastructure, logistics, etc.

However, Trump and the RNC's complete unwillingness to consider any mitigation to keep everybody healthy, or to consider a scaled-down event if necessary - concessions the DNC has signaled they are willing to make with Milwaukee - is what really led to this point of the RNC deciding against Charlotte.

My post earlier today - "I hope Jacksonville enjoys it, as well as the massive COVID-19 hit to follow" - was meant as a joke but it was unnecessarily flippant. And I agree with Ziggy that it even sounded ghoulish.

Like all of us, I obviously do not wish sickness, pain or death on anybody anywhere.

As much as I wish Charlotte could have gotten the jobs and dollars, I am glad our governor did not value those over the lives of our citizens and the lives of those who would have been visiting.

Finally, given the events of the past few days, I am relieved that a dangerous emperor-wannabe - who just attacked peaceful protesters with tear gas and other weapons so he could stage a photo-op for himself - will not be running Narcissist Fest 2020 in my town.

[Mutaman]

UK-bookmaker Ladbrokes is now offering daily odds on which phrases will be included in Trump’s first tweet of the morning, with options like “Antifa,” “Sleepy Joe,” “Terrorists” and “Fake news.”

[WarriorDad]

Fuvking ghoul.

He was just funnin’ with all of us.  It was a joke.   

[ZiggysFryBoy]

He was just funnin’ with all of us.  It was a joke.   

If anyone knows hot takes, it MU82.

I mean, he is the founder of slut shaming.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I thought the new word for this was sarcasm.