COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[Hards Alumni]

Wisconsin has been "open" 3 days, these tests were conducted at least a day ago, more likely 2-3 days ago. They have absolutely zero to do with whether Wisconsin is open or not. Wisconsin may be on a sleigh ride to hell post SC decision but it's way too early to know that.

I think i appreciate you more every day.

[mu03eng]

Please note the data relevance of what data you are indexing to. Covid Tracking(primary media tool) is indexing to reporting date whereas the CDC is indexing to date of death.

[GooooMarquette]

Wisconsin has been "open" 3 days, these tests were conducted at least a day ago, more likely 2-3 days ago. They have absolutely zero to do with whether Wisconsin is open or not. Wisconsin may be on a sleigh ride to hell post SC decision but it's way too early to know that.

Affirmative. We will begin to see the impact by the end of May and into June. One way or another, it will be an interesting summer.

[pbiflyer]

Wisconsin has been "open" 3 days, these tests were conducted at least a day ago, more likely 2-3 days ago. They have absolutely zero to do with whether Wisconsin is open or not. Wisconsin may be on a sleigh ride to hell post SC decision but it's way too early to know that.

Will try to be more clear. Wisconsin is opening up EVEN though cases were going up when it was closed.
To think “opening everything up will bring down cases” seems a bit optimistic to say the least.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

Wisconsin has been "open" 3 days, these tests were conducted at least a day ago, more likely 2-3 days ago. They have absolutely zero to do with whether Wisconsin is open or not. Wisconsin may be on a sleigh ride to hell post SC decision but it's way too early to know that.

Well said, eng. 

[mu03eng]

Will try to be more clear. Wisconsin is opening up EVEN though cases were going up when it was closed.
To think “opening everything up will bring down cases” seems a bit optimistic to say the least.

Not trying to pick on you, but you are proving my point of the general lack of data literacy. A single day increase in which the data is based on when the results came back not when the tests were taken tells us nothing. Literally every outcome is possible from the data point you are quoting.

And the absolute number of cases going up isn't necessarily a problem....if we are testing more and capturing more asymptomatic then our testing number going up isn't an indicator of stuff going out of control...could be but not certain. Remember 5 days ago Milwaukee County opened up testing to everyone at two sites, this is more indicative of that than anything else.

[injuryBug]

That would only matter if they were testing with the exact same criteria. Testing in many places now includes people that are not showing symptoms. Of course positive percentages will go down.

And basically what you are now arguing is that there previously were a bunch of undetected cases before wider testing.

Not arguing that at all.  We all know there were people with no symptoms with covid.  So those would be undetected cases.  So the idea with testing is to find the true amount of the population that has Covid all symptoms or no symptoms that will slow the spread if we can trace.
The fact remains with 3000 tests or 6000 tests we still are hitting between 6-10% positive each day so the total number of cases will increase.

[Pakuni]

Not trying to pick on you, but you are proving my point of the general lack of data literacy. A single day increase in which the data is based on when the results came back not when the tests were taken tells us nothing. Literally every outcome is possible from the data point you are quoting.

And the absolute number of cases going up isn't necessarily a problem....if we are testing more and capturing more asymptomatic then our testing number going up isn't an indicator of stuff going out of control...could be but not certain. Remember 5 days ago Milwaukee County opened up testing to everyone at two sites, this is more indicative of that than anything else.

This is true. The total cases isn't necessarily important.  But the percent of tests with positive results does seem important.  And in that regard, the percent of positive tests has risen each of the last five days. That has nothing to do with opening the bars, but the timing of the reopening seems less than ideal.

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/data.htm

[injuryBug]

This is true. The total cases isn't necessarily important.  But the percent of tests with positive results does seem important.  And in that regard, the percent of positive tests has risen each of the last five days. That has nothing to do with opening the bars, but the timing of the reopening seems less than ideal.

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/data.htm

Correct it has risen the last 4 days but 5 days ago it was at the lowest point in a long time at 3.9% positive.  The past 10 days we have been between 6-8%. so things have been pretty steady with a bit of a jump today hopefully the outlier to the 3.9% we say earlier

[mu03eng]

This is true. The total cases isn't necessarily important.  But the percent of tests with positive results does seem important.  And in that regard, the percent of positive tests has risen each of the last five days. That has nothing to do with opening the bars, but the timing of the reopening seems less than ideal.

https://www.dhs.wisconsin.gov/covid-19/data.htm

Right but we don't know in that date set when the tests were taken....they could have been 1 to 7 days ago(99th percentile). The all could have been take yesterday (really bad), they all could have been take 7 days ago(probably good  but not sure), they could have been taken evenly over the last 7 days (generally positive result). Because we aren't indexing to the date the test was taken you have to use a 3 or 7 day rolling average, and if you do we have a thing uptick but not notable. But at the end of the day it has nothing to do with opening up.

[MU82]

Simple answer it is man made

Your vote for tin-foil hat rather than mask is appreciated.

[pbiflyer]

Not arguing that at all.  We all know there were people with no symptoms with covid.  So those would be undetected cases.  So the idea with testing is to find the true amount of the population that has Covid all symptoms or no symptoms that will slow the spread if we can trace.
The fact remains with 3000 tests or 6000 tests we still are hitting between 6-10% positive each day so the total number of cases will increase.

Again, if I widen the testing criteria and see that same percentage of positive tests, that isn't a good thing.

Scenario 1 - Test 100 symptomatic people - 6-10 test positive
Scenario 2 - Test 100 people, some of which are symptomatic, some aren't - 6-10 test positive

Why would those two scenarios be considered the same? I would expect that if people are saying it is a downward trend, scenario 2 would actually have a lower percentage.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Again, if I widen the testing criteria and see that same percentage of positive tests, that isn't a good thing.

Scenario 1 - Test 100 symptomatic people - 6-10 test positive
Scenario 2 - Test 100 people, some of which are symptomatic, some aren't - 6-10 test positive

Why would those two scenarios be considered the same? I would expect that if people are saying it is a downward trend, scenario 2 would actually have a lower percentage.

Is Wisconsin doing random sampling on general population?  In my area our testing has gone up a lot, but they are not testing asymptomatic unless you are a health care worker.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Is Wisconsin doing random sampling on general population?  In my area our testing has gone up a lot, but they are not testing asymptomatic unless you are a health care worker.

Depends on the location, but yes.  For instance anyone can get a test right now in Brown County regardless of symptoms.  My understanding is that the CDC advocates for this to help measure community spread.  But I believe it was only for a two week window ending this Friday.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Depends on the location, but yes.  For instance anyone can get a test right now in Brown County regardless of symptoms.  My understanding is that the CDC advocates for this to help measure community spread.  But I believe it was only for a two week window ending this Friday.

Thanks.  I should say anyone can get a test regardless of symptoms.  There is no active effort to get asymptomatic people to the testing sites (that I am aware of outside of HC).

Here is the current situation:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/cvs-opens-12-new-drive-thru-testing-sites-in-connecticut/2272130/%3famp

[GooooMarquette]

Since the MLB thread seems mostly to be dealing with team- and player-specific stuff...some interesting COVID safety proposals in the MLB draft manual:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29183345/mlb-safety-proposal-includes-10000-tests-per-week-social-distancing

High-fives, fist bumps and hugs would be prohibited under the plan, as would spitting, tobacco use and chewing sunflower seeds. Fielders would be "encouraged to retreat several steps away from the baserunner'' between pitches. First- and third-base coaches are not to approach baserunners or umpires, and players should not socialize with opponents.

A ball will be thrown away after it is touched by multiple players, and throwing the ball around the infield will be discouraged. Pitchers would have their own set of balls to throw during bullpen sessions, and personnel who rub baseballs with mud for the umpires must use gloves.

--------------

Spitting, tobacco and sunflower seeds prohibited in baseball? Most players burn more calories doing that than they do throwing the ball.

And fielders retreating from baserunners between pitches? If they play with those rules, someone will set a new single-season stolen base record even if they only play 82 games....

[#UnleashSean]

Since the MLB thread seems mostly to be dealing with team- and player-specific stuff...some interesting COVID safety proposals in the MLB draft manual:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/29183345/mlb-safety-proposal-includes-10000-tests-per-week-social-distancing


High-fives, fist bumps and hugs would be prohibited under the plan, as would spitting, tobacco use and chewing sunflower seeds. Fielders would be "encouraged to retreat several steps away from the baserunner'' between pitches. First- and third-base coaches are not to approach baserunners or umpires, and players should not socialize with opponents.

A ball will be thrown away after it is touched by multiple players, and throwing the ball around the infield will be discouraged. Pitchers would have their own set of balls to throw during bullpen sessions, and personnel who rub baseballs with mud for the umpires must use gloves.

--------------

Spitting, tobacco and sunflower seeds prohibited in baseball? Most players burn more calories doing that than they do throwing the ball.

And fielders retreating from baserunners between pitches? If they play with those rules, someone will set a new single-season stolen base record even if they only play 82 games....

A lot of these restrictions seem kind of over the top or utterly useless.

Base coaches aren't allowed to approach runners?  They interact everyday...

[JWags85]

A lot of these restrictions seem kind of over the top or utterly useless.

Base coaches aren't allowed to approach runners?  They interact everyday...

I get the spirit of some of these restricitions but they seem so all over the place.

Watching the Bundesliga yesterday and today, players aren’t allowed to touch each other in celebration, other than forearm bumps...yet there is constantly jostling and battling for a position on a set piece will bring 1000x more contact than a quick embrace or whatever after a goal.

[pbiflyer]

I get the spirit of some of these restricitions but they seem so all over the place.

Watching the Bundesliga yesterday and today, players aren’t allowed to touch each other in celebration, other than forearm bumps...yet there is constantly jostling and battling for a position on a set piece will bring 1000x more contact than a quick embrace or whatever after a goal.

I was wondering why the muted celebrations.  Didn’t realize it was a rule.

[tower912]

The echoing is going to take some getting used to.   

Without the fans, will there be as much flopping?

[injuryBug]

A lot of these restrictions seem kind of over the top or utterly useless.

Base coaches aren't allowed to approach runners?  They interact everyday...

I do not get the restrictions at all.  The 30 second conversation they have on the bases I am sure is shorter than any conversation that goes on in between innings.

Not a chance I could play a game without spitting.

[rocket surgeon]

Is Wisconsin doing random sampling on general population?  In my area our testing has gone up a lot, but they are not testing asymptomatic unless you are a health care worker.

there are 3 locations in southeastern wisconsin where you can voluntarily get tested regardless if you are symptomatic, previously symptomatic or not.

waukesha expo center next to crites field, burlington, lake geneva, a couple each in racine and kenosha

[rocket surgeon]

 i don't know if this has been discussed somewhere previously, but colorado just adjusted their death numbers by 25%.  no deaths are ok, but i'd rather they adjusted down than up.  unfortunately, these people still did die, but just not due to COVID-19.  the overall death numbers have been highly inaccurate on the national level as well.  i hope this is being widely reported, because there are many people who are (no pun) scared to death to go outdoors much more than their own yards

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

i don't know if this has been discussed somewhere previously, but colorado just adjusted their death numbers by 25%.  no deaths are ok, but i'd rather they adjusted down than up.  unfortunately, these people still did die, but just not due to COVID-19.  the overall death numbers have been highly inaccurate on the national level as well.  i hope this is being widely reported, because there are many people who are (no pun) scared to death to go outdoors much more than their own yards

Yep.  It's been talked about.  They've been under-reported.

[forgetful]

i don't know if this has been discussed somewhere previously, but colorado just adjusted their death numbers by 25%.  no deaths are ok, but i'd rather they adjusted down than up.  unfortunately, these people still did die, but just not due to COVID-19.  the overall death numbers have been highly inaccurate on the national level as well.  i hope this is being widely reported, because there are many people who are (no pun) scared to death to go outdoors much more than their own yards

If another country did what Colorado just did. Our leadership would be attacking them for manipulating their numbers and lying to the world.

We are undercounting, for political reasons, this is exactly what we have criticized other nations for.