Malaysia Airlines MH370

[keefe]

Appreciate your input on this. Hopefully, you can add more as more facts come out.

You have said the Malaysian gov't knows more than it is saying, which I have no doubt about. Do you think there is a lot of involvement of the US gov't because of possible terrorism involved or is there a protocol where they would need to request our intervention?

There is no question the Malaysian government knows more than has been said. And we do know that various US entities are involved in the investigation. Typically, the support provided by The Boeing Company, FAA, NTSB, DoD, and FBI would be synched through the embassy and specifically the LATT and DATT offices. But to suggest the US is providing anything more than support is silly. The USG was no more involved in these events than Aliens, dead former SEALs, or Elvis.

[brandx]

There is no question the Malaysian government knows more than has been said. And we do know that various US entities are involved in the investigation. Typically, the support provided by The Boeing Company, FAA, NTSB, DoD, and FBI would be synched through the embassy and specifically the LATT and DATT offices. But to suggest the US is providing anything more than support is silly. The USG was no more involved in these events than Aliens, dead former SEALs, or Elvis.

I didn't mean to suggest there was any involvement - rather that we are involved after the fact (being the world's policeman and all  ) over the worry there is some terrorism element to the whole affair.

[keefe]

I didn't mean to suggest there was any involvement - rather that we are involved after the fact (being the world's policeman and all  ) over the worry there is some terrorism element to the whole affair.

x

I wasn't singling you out. (I am direct but rarely is that editorializing even if the tone might sound harsh; 22 years in the AF does that to one's speech patterns.) Sorry if it came across that way.

There has been press reporting that we are involved and the fact is we are very close with the government in KL. Our assistance would be legal, technical and military. FBI support would be coordinated through the Legal Attache's office while technical and intelligence support would run through the Defense Attache's team.

My guess is that this is much more about domestic Malaysian politics but it is nothing more than that - a guess. As I have said before, whoever commandeered that aircraft wanted to hide where it was going and how it got there. This was not about suicide.

[Benny B]

There are too many problems with the grand sabotage theory:

1. No one person could pre-program catastrophic failure as you outline

2. Those systems are not integrated so cascading effects would not ensue

3. Killing comms requires manual action and not electronic/silicon-based impulse

4. The flight deck crew could not begin to taxi with any of those systems disabled or non-functioning - Failure in all of them had to occur once airborne

Let me point out the rub in all of the speculation you hear on tv or read in the press and why I suspect piracy.

- Disabling comms systems doesn't bring down the jet. Whoever shut down IFF and ACARS wanted to prevent the on-board systems to stop telling people on the ground where the jet was, where it was heading, at what speed, and where it landed. If you are going to crash the jet you don't really need to disable those systems. Disabling these systems suggests someone wanted to mask course, speed, and landing data from authorities.

- Flight deck crew don't need to incapacitate themselves through hypoxia in order to bring about catastrophic failure. The pilot simply needs to push the yoke forward, hard. And if he wants to bring about that result there is no reason to disable comms systems. Especially ACARS, which required one of the two pilots to open a panel in the flight deck floor, climb down into the hull, open another panel in the wheel well, reach in and flip a series of switches. From what my colleague told me, Boeing designed the manual shut down system for emergency purposes but they made it difficult enough that a person would really want to shut it down.

- The pilots wouldn't need to do depressurize the cabin in order to incapacitate the passengers. Start yankin' and bankin' violently. Anyone not strapped in is going to get thrown around and people actually wearing a seat belt are going to be vomiting. Depressurizing is difficult to do and there are far easier ways to subdue the passengers. Besides, given flight deck security measures, nobody can access the flight station without blowing up the airframe. 

- Remember that pilots don't need to sneak weapons or bombs on board. They are already in control of the aircraft. Terrorists try to sneak weapons on board so they can take control of the aircraft. The 9/11 hajis didn't throw box cutters at the towers or the Pentagon. They used the box cutters to take control.

The question is really why did the flight deck crew secure all of those systems designed to tell the world where the aircraft was located, headed, and landed? All the rest is chaff.

I would recommend looking into the background of Anwar Ibrahim. I lived in Jakarta and Singapore and and am familiar with the story of Anwar who was the hand-picked successor to Dr. Mahatir, Malaysia's long-serving PM. Anwar fell out of favor and Mahatir and the ruling UMNO party went after him hard. He was accused of pedophilia and jailed under Islamic morality laws. This is a divisive issue in Malay politics and it has come out that the Captain of this flight was not only a supporter of Anwar's but attended Anwar's trial the day of the flight.

If there was malfeasance I am guessing the Captain's support for Anwar is significant. There is no evidence the aircraft crashed and everything we know about the flight is that its comms systems were disabled and the bird deviated from its filed flight plan. Whoever did all of that wanted to take the asset intact.

I suspected piracy from Day 1; an airplane doesn't disappear unless it wants to disappear, and if someone wants it to disappear, you're absolutely correct in that it means that someone wants the plane intact; otherwise, as you said... you simply drop it in the drink.

That said, thank you for debunking the logic of the sabotage theory, even though you didn't address whether it was logistically possible (whatever circuit had to be disabled to kill the xponder and ACARS, couldn't that also be done by squibbing a single wire (or two) somewhere, thereby not interrupting any other systems)?  Sabotage the only thing that I could believe would be plausible this long after the incident if it wasn't an act of piracy... other than extreme Malay incompetence, which I suppose should be left on the table until it's proven otherwise.

However, if this is a piracy, I caution about getting anyone's hopes up about the passengers... attempted piracy and successful piracy can have very different outcomes.  But the only thing more precious than an airplane is its cargo... if all you really wanted was a 777, there are multiple ways to make one disappear -- you don't pick the one method that carries the liability of a couple hundred witnesses unless you want those witnesses too.

[Hards Alumni]

Any thoughts here about one of the pilots owning a flight simulator with deleted files regarding the simulator?

[Benny B]

Any thoughts here about one of the pilots owning a flight simulator with deleted files regarding the simulator?

The only thing that I would find suspect about a pilot having a flight simulator at home is if a pilot didn't have some sort of flight simulator at home.


Watch this...

Hey Keefe --- do you prefer MS Flight Sim or X-Plane, and what version are you currently running?




Deleted files... so what.  At some point, you clear out your flight log.  He might have needed disk space.  He might have been planning to upgrade his software.  He might have archived it somewhere.  He might have hit the "Clear History" button by mistake.  Not to mention, he did it over a month ago; not the night before; if there was something nefarious afoot, don't you think he would have at least attempted to destroy the evidence completely rather than just click 'Delete'?


EDIT: I'm going to go home tonight, dust off my Sidewinder joystick, throw in the MSFSXGold DVD, log a FP to take a 777 from KL to Beijing, divert from the route an hour in, kill my comms, and start doing some of that yankin' and bankin' Keefe was talking about.  Maybe Barbara Walters will want to interview me over the weekend as some sort of expert on Malaysian flight simulations.

[keefe]

I suspected piracy from Day 1; an airplane doesn't disappear unless it wants to disappear, and if someone wants it to disappear, you're absolutely correct in that it means that someone wants the plane intact; otherwise, as you said... you simply drop it in the drink.

That said, thank you for debunking the logic of the sabotage theory, even though you didn't address whether it was logistically possible (whatever circuit had to be disabled to kill the xponder and ACARS, couldn't that also be done by squibbing a single wire (or two) somewhere, thereby not interrupting any other systems)?  Sabotage the only thing that I could believe would be plausible this long after the incident if it wasn't an act of piracy... other than extreme Malay incompetence, which I suppose should be left on the table until it's proven otherwise.

However, if this is a piracy, I caution about getting anyone's hopes up about the passengers... attempted piracy and successful piracy can have very different outcomes.  But the only thing more precious than an airplane is its cargo... if all you really wanted was a 777, there are multiple ways to make one disappear -- you don't pick the one method that carries the liability of a couple hundred witnesses unless you want those witnesses too.

Sorry, Benny, if I wasn't clear. You cannot move the aircraft if those comms systems are off line so we know they were working up front. And because they are discrete systems failure in other avionics will not crash them. From my colleague the Boeing ACARs lead, it is bloody difficult to manually take ACARs off line. You have to physically jump through hoops of fire to get at it. We know that both ACARs and IFF were squawking as they climbed out to altitude; it's when they leveled off that the flight went NORDO.

At that point they were still under positive radar control by KL ATC. A key question is how did KL Center escalate and what did the Malaysian government do to manage the response because at the instant the aircraft went dark they knew there was a huge problem. The Malaysian authorities know a lot more of the story than they have released but I doubt it has anything to do with incompetence. And there is a lot they also do not know. I am sure we will hear more but only when they have a reason to brief the public.

[keefe]

The only thing that I would find suspect about a pilot having a flight simulator at home is if a pilot didn't have some sort of flight simulator at home.


Watch this...

Hey Keefe --- do you prefer MS Flight Sim or X-Plane, and what version are you currently running?




Deleted files... so what.  At some point, you clear out your flight log.  He might have needed disk space.  He might have been planning to upgrade his software.  He might have archived it somewhere.  He might have hit the "Clear History" button by mistake.  Not to mention, he did it over a month ago; not the night before; if there was something nefarious afoot, don't you think he would have at least attempted to destroy the evidence completely rather than just click 'Delete'?

C'mon. My wife was a 20 year Softie. MS Flight. But I never used it to fly F 16s or A 10s. I flew virtually every other airframe, especially vintage aircraft.

Nothing unusual about having a sim game at home. The reason the military and commercial carriers have guys use sims, other than they don't burn gas, is that it is the best way to test Emergency Procedures (EPs.) Sims realistically model catastrophic situations which test a pilot's EP reflexes. If you crash in a sim you restart and try again.

I know there are questions about the Capt having a sim at home - the question is how sophisticated was it. Also, if he used it to practice approaches into the Maldives, Somalia, or Seychelles then there is more to the story. At this point I am not conversant in the sim story of this case but will know more later tonight.

[Benny B]

Sorry, Benny, if I wasn't clear. You cannot move the aircraft if those comms systems are off line so we know they were working up front. And because they are discrete systems failure in other avionics will not crash them. From my colleague the Boeing ACARs lead, it is bloody difficult to manually take ACARs off line. You have to physically jump through hoops of fire to get at it. We know that both ACARs and IFF were squawking as they climbed out to altitude; it's when they leveled off that the flight went NORDO.

I'm not saying you take those systems offline before the flight... what I'm talking about is a technician or mechanic who goes below the deck hours, days, weeks, or maybe months before the flight and places an e-match (remember those things used to set off model rockets remotely... same concept, but hot enough to melt a wire) that's triggered by some sort of timer or pressure sensor that might be hidden nearby.  Wrap the wire with some fireproof material, and you wouldn't even see the e-match ignite - much less hear anything - even if it was right in front of you.  Set a few of them to go off in sequence, and voila... instant seaplane sans pontoons.  Plane goes up normally, systems report normally, plane goes down without a trace.

[Benny B]

C'mon. My wife was a 20 year Softie. MS Flight. But I never used it to fly F 16s or A 10s. I flew virtually every other airframe, especially vintage aircraft.

You suck.  My favorite way to kill time is to fly the F/A-18 at ~1500' from Waukegan to Milwaukee, turn left 90 degrees, and crash that $50M piece of garbage into Camp Randall on full afterburners.

[Spotcheck Billy]

^ I blame Benny B for what happened to flight MH370


you know the NSA is reading your posts, don't you?

[mu03eng]

I'm not saying you take those systems offline before the flight... what I'm talking about is a technician or mechanic who goes below the deck hours, days, weeks, or maybe months before the flight and places an e-match (remember those things used to set off model rockets remotely... same concept, but hot enough to melt a wire) that's triggered by some sort of timer or pressure sensor that might be hidden nearby.  Wrap the wire with some fireproof material, and you wouldn't even see the e-match ignite - much less hear anything - even if it was right in front of you.  Set a few of them to go off in sequence, and voila... instant seaplane sans pontoons.  Plane goes up normally, systems report normally, plane goes down without a trace.

Without having the one line diagram schematic in front of me, it's theoretically conceivable, but highly unlikely.  Wires are routed in aircraft in bundles so it's very unlikely there is a discrete location where you can melt one wire and not others.  Additionally the access to those wires is likely to be limited and the wiring to coordinate such a group melt would be difficult in of itself.  As I type, I think I should change my answer to no carnal knowledging way.

Plus the latest report indicates the course change was programmed prior to the ACARS going down

[Eldon]

Without having the one line diagram schematic in front of me, it's theoretically conceivable, but highly unlikely.  Wires are routed in aircraft in bundles so it's very unlikely there is a discrete location where you can melt one wire and not others.  Additionally the access to those wires is likely to be limited and the wiring to coordinate such a group melt would be difficult in of itself.  As I type, I think I should change my answer to no carnal knowledging way.

Plus the latest report indicates the course change was programmed prior to the ACARS going down

If the pilot was trying to make the plane invisible, for whatever reason, wouldn't he do it after the ACARS went down?

All of this is so confusing

[Benny B]

^ I blame Benny B for what happened to flight MH370


you know the NSA is reading your posts, don't you?

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[Eldon]

Anybody interested in learning more about this mystery and looking for a central location, check out

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-310.html

It's a forum of professional pilots, like PilotSCOOP sorta.  The link takes you to page 310, but you can roam around from there.

[Hards Alumni]

C'mon. My wife was a 20 year Softie. MS Flight. But I never used it to fly F 16s or A 10s. I flew virtually every other airframe, especially vintage aircraft.

Nothing unusual about having a sim game at home. The reason the military and commercial carriers have guys use sims, other than they don't burn gas, is that it is the best way to test Emergency Procedures (EPs.) Sims realistically model catastrophic situations which test a pilot's EP reflexes. If you crash in a sim you restart and try again.

I know there are questions about the Capt having a sim at home - the question is how sophisticated was it. Also, if he used it to practice approaches into the Maldives, Somalia, or Seychelles then there is more to the story. At this point I am not conversant in the sim story of this case but will know more later tonight.

That is obviously the most important thing.  If it was just software, who cares.  If it was something more substantial...

[Benny B]

Anybody interested in learning more about this mystery and looking for a central location, check out

http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/535538-malaysian-airlines-mh370-contact-lost-310.html

It's a forum of professional pilots, like PilotSCOOP sorta.  The link takes you to page 310, but you can roam around from there.

Does that board go Hiroshima when Droner17 starts posting?

[NavinRJohnson]

I have to say, I don't understand half the crap you guys are talking about, but I have a better sense of what's going on with this thing from reading this, then most of the other outlets combined.

This is why I can't quit scoop, despite all the repetitive, whiney bitches. maybe I'll just limit myself to the super bar.

[Coleman]

I have to say, I don't understand half the crap you guys are talking about, but I have a better sense of what's going on with this thing from reading this, then most of the other outlets combined.

This is why I can't quit scoop, despite all the repetitive, whiney bitches. maybe I'll just limit myself to the super bar.

+1

Superbar is where its at! Lots of very intelligent folks on Scoop, makes for some great discussions.

[Eldon]

Does that board go Hiroshima when Droner17 starts posting?

Hmm, "Droner17" is eerily similar to "Dreadman24"...coincidence?

Also, the poster NinoBountyHunter is a pilot who professes to love aviation, but, for whatever reason, is always praising sailing and the benefits of maritime travel.

The poster MavericksFather only posts to harshly criticize something that Ray LaHood does.  Anyone who commends LaHood is a "gargler."

And CaptainCrunch doesn't seem to post all too often, but when he does, he laboriously nitpicks every point that someone else has made.

Lots of similarities, that's for sure.

[Benny B]

Hmm, "Droner17" is eerily similar to "Dreadman24"...coincidence?

Also, the poster NinoBountyHunter is a pilot who professes to love aviation, but, for whatever reason, is always praising sailing and the benefits of maritime travel.

The poster MavericksFather only posts to harshly criticize something that Ray LaHood does.  Anyone who commends LaHood is a "gargler."

And CaptainCrunch doesn't seem to post all too often, but when he does, he laboriously nitpicks every point that someone else has made.

Lots of similarities, that's for sure.

I was thinking more along the lines of Droner17 being an analogue to SMU17, but I'm curious as to whether NinoBountyHunter posts under Looptheloop's screen name occasionally.

[mu03eng]

Hmm, "Droner17" is eerily similar to "Dreadman24"...coincidence?

Also, the poster NinoBountyHunter is a pilot who professes to love aviation, but, for whatever reason, is always praising sailing and the benefits of maritime travel.

It's gotta be something with aviation, both my dad and I are avid yachtsmen, can't beat an 80 degree day hiked all the way out on a 18ft catamaran doing 30 knots.

[real chili 83]

It's gotta be something with aviation, both my dad and I are avid yachtsmen, can't beat an 80 degree day hiked all the way out on a 18ft catamaran doing 30 knots.

Similar physics with planes and sailboats. The sail on a sailboat acts like the wing on a plane.  MU03, I know, I am preaching to the choir.

30 knots is screaming.  I'll take 8 knots and a beam reach on a 45 ft. Morgan in the Keys any time.

Looking out over the GOM right now.  Blowing stink from the NW and 6 ft seas.  Good stuff.

[NavinRJohnson]

It's gotta be something with aviation, both my dad and I are avid yachtsmen, can't beat an 80 degree day hiked all the way out on a 18ft catamaran doing 30 knots.

Safe to say we can now merge this with the bitchiest, most annoying thread.

[keefe]

Similar physics with planes and sailboats. The sail on a sailboat acts like the wing on a plane.  MU03, I know, I am preaching to the choir.

30 knots is screaming.  I'll take 8 knots and a beam reach on a 45 ft. Morgan in the Keys any time.

Looking out over the GOM right now.  Blowing stink from the NW and 6 ft seas.  Good stuff.

If you can fly an aircraft you can sail a boat. My father was a fighter pilot who loved sailing so I grew up earning my water hours by scraping barnacles. I have owned two 36' in my time - a Morgan and a Yamaha. Very different vessels but both superb sailers.

I have taken out cats but they are not sailboats. I'm with chili - throwing out a spinnaker and burying the needle is more fun than 20+ kts.