Basketball Hour With Buzz and Homer - February 26

[Tugg Speedman]

Listen here:

http://www.espnmilwaukee.com/common/page.php?pt=av_marquettebball&id=431#

Homer printed out the questions from our thread and was going through them.



Buzz starts off by saying 7 - 2 the last nine games gets in.  MU is 2 - 1 is he said that, so keep hope alive.  He also thinks if a team finishes third ALONE in the BE, they are a lock too.  He expects 4 BE teams for sure, various scenarios gets them to 5, but 4 for sure.

Homer credited Buzz as this is the first season in many years we had to go through these scenarios.

Buzz is a big KenPom fan, thinks they are realistic.  Says RPI is skewed.  RPI is good for clustering in broad category but that's it.

Buzz like Lundari, Jerry Palm for predicting the tourney.

Buzz said out average RPI loss is 34.

Buzz said they were intentional in their November and December schedule (meaning it was hard).  Does that matter to the committee?  Buzz said they will find out.  Reading between the lines, if MU misses the tourney Buzz seems to be saying that next year we will schedule a bunch of 300 RPI teams (hello Centenary and goodbye tOSU) and run up the win/loss record.  This could be a thread alone.

After the break, Homer asked about substitutions during the game.

Buzz said the reason he doesn't sub out Derrick Wilson more is because he places less importance on a PG shooting than others.  To be clear, he would love a shooting PG but thinks defense and passing is much more important than shooting.

Burton has "hit the wall" and got over it and Buzz is really happy with his progress.

Jake plays because he has to be guarded and it creates space on the floor.

Buzz said Jake shoots better than Todd but Todd makes more baskets.

Buzz said Chris Otule won the DePaul game.  Talked about how Chris creates lines for guys to drive to the basket.  Not a good rebounder because he has one eye and its hard to track the ball.  Chris does a good job getting his hands up when sealing so he's not getting called for as many offensive fouls.

Talked about fouling at the end of the DePaul game (up by 3 so they do not have a change at 3 points).  Said that is a hard call to make on the road.  More inclined to do it at home.

Noted Punching Piper wanted to know about his BBQ sauce or dry rub.  Buzz said sauce.  BBQ is way different in Texas than here.

Buzz said that after Dougie McBuckets James Bell is probably the most efficient player in the league.  Buzz said the best part of MuBuckets game is constant motion, he never stops moving.

Buzz said St. Johns matches up best with Creighton than any other team in the league.

Buzz said the team has gotten better in the last month because they are more comfortable with who they are.  The team is tougher than in January.


Homer said he figured out Buzz.  He is always looking ahead as to what is coming next.  He does not dwell on the present.  That is why his body language does not change when he calls a TO after poor play.  He focused on what to do next.  Buzz said that is the most astute thing Homer has said in  6 years.

Buzz admitted he is emotional when they are playing well and forces the other team to call a TO.

He repeated the well worn lines that he is not a great coach or recruiter but has a good pulse for people.  He said he has spent time with people outside the coaching industry on how to be a good leader and pays more attention to trainers and assistants to help them get better and meet their goals.

Buzz has a sign in this office that says "whatever you compromise to keep you will eventually lose."

Buzz said he has to work harder this year because they are not as good.

Buzz said He coaches his kids on Sunday and even writes them letters just like recruits.

Buzz said he has to answer to his wife and children more than messages on a message board .... hmmmm!

[tower912]

Deonte, Todd, and John really bad on defense against DePaul.      Any team is only as good as it's returning to players.   

[tower912]

Playing Todd, Jake at the same time creates space for others. 

[Tugg Speedman]

Playing Todd, Jake at the same time creates space for others. 

Buzz said they are trying to do more of that.

[tower912]

Otule does the same thing on both ends on of the floor.   Clears space for lanes on offense.    On defense, occupies so much space that other guys on his team get rebounds.    Does it by getting big and putting his hands up, so he never gets called for the foul.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Playing Todd, Jake at the same time creates space for others. 

This. If Deonte lever learns how to play defense a lineup of him, Ox, Todd, Jake and Derrick could do wonders. Jake spaces the floor for Mayo's drives and they cant camp out on Davante all day either because Deonte has a lot of scoring ability as well.

[tower912]

This. If Deonte lever learns how to play defense a lineup of him, Ox, Todd, Jake and Derrick could do wonders. Jake spaces the floor for Mayo's drives and they cant camp out on Davante all day either because Deonte has a lot of scoring ability as well.

Too small, too limited defensively.   

[We R Final Four]

I thought that Buzz said last year in reference to the "should we foul up by 3 with under 10 seconds to play" question with "some coaches do that, some coaches do not--I do not do that".  Now, it seems it is more of a home/away decision.?  I maybe off on this one.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Too small, too limited defensively.   

I mean, considering Lazar started at center, small really isnt a problem.

[tower912]

   Lazar and Jimmy played good defense.    Gardner and Deonte are too limited defensively and at rebounding outside of their area to play together for very long.    I forget which game it was, but it was tried and it was dreadful.   

[mu03eng]

   Lazar and Jimmy played good defense.    Gardner and Deonte are too limited defensively and at rebounding outside of their area to play together for very long.    I forget which game it was, but it was tried and it was dreadful.   

I agree about Deonte for this season....I think by his junior year, but likely next year Burton will play some Lazar center type game, especially with Fischer being ineligible initially and Paige a frosh.  Burton has the tools to be a good post defender, but he doesn't have the experience/patience yet.

[mattyv1908]

  Lazar and Jimmy played good defense.    Gardner and Deonte are too limited defensively and at rebounding outside of their area to play together for very long.    I forget which game it was, but it was tried and it was dreadful.  

Our rebounding during the years of the big 3, Lazar, and Jae/DJO were all worse rebounding teams than either this year's or last with Gardner and Otule.

[MUfan12]

With how poorly this team rebounds, fouling isn't much safer than playing D, IMO.

Say they foul at the end of the DPU game. With how bad MU was on the defensive glass, the following scenario isn't all that far-fetched. Guy hits the first, misses the second. Putback and a foul. Makes the FT and MU loses.

[mattyv1908]

Tower, here are the rebounding differentials in Buzz's six seasons (and only 5 were with his team).

13-14:  +3.2
12-13:  +4.6
11-12:   -0.1
10-11:  +2.4
09-10:   -1.3
08-09:  +2.7

While we're certainly not dominant on the glass, our team rebounding has improved over the last two years compared to the previous four.  Our teams were severely undersized in two of those seasons, but to say this team and it's players don't rebound as well probably stems from fond memories of guys like Lazar, Butler and Crowder playing out of position and fighting on the boards rather than actual statistical numbers.

[tower912]

No.   I know this team rebounds better than previous teams.   I am talking specifically about the combination of Gardner, Burton, Mayo, Thomas, and Derrick.    Gardner and Burton as our two front court players is a defensive liability.   Neither is as mobile as they need to be, neither goes and gets rebounds.   There have only been a few stretches where they were the only two 'bigs' on the floor and the ones I remember turned into lay-up drills for the other team. 

[mattyv1908]

Gardner and Jamil are our two rebounding leaders followed by Otule and Derrick.

Since it's hard to compare minutes and production amongst major contributors and role players, I frown upon using the per 40 minute model but I think it's the best representation to show how players rebound.

Taylor Jr - 11.1
Anderson - 9.7
Otule - 9.6
Gardner - 8.7
J Wilson - 8.1
Burton - 7.2
D Wilson - 4.9
Mayo - 4.1
Thomas - 3.9
Dawson - 3.9
Johnson - 3.3

Curiously, if you look at our advanced defensive numbers which measure total points allowed with a certain player on the floor over 100 possessions our best defender would be Deonte Burton giving up only 92.5 pts/100 poss followed closely by Juan Anderson giving up 92.9 pts/100 poss.

It should be noted that this board's consensus 'two best defenders' in Derrick Wilson and Chris Otule's numbers look nearly identical to that of Gardner.  Otule and D Wilson are tied allowing 101.7 pts/100 poss while Gardner trails by a single point and is the team's next most efficient defender allowing 102.7 pts/100 possessions.  Both J Wilson and Mayo rank better than all three of these players.

Our worst defender using advanced defensive statistics is Jake Thomas allowing 104.9 pts/100 poss.

This is not the be all to end all statistic but it does hold up better over the course of a season than other methods of comparing players defensively.  The data suggests a much different picture than the popular opinions on this board.

[tower912]

The last time Davante and Deonte were on the court together for an extended period was at home against Butler.   It was a lay up drill.   The comeback commenced when Chris was put in the game to be at the back of the press and Jamil came back in after foul trouble.    Butler built their lead with Gardner and Burton in the game as the bigs.   Gardner did not do well as the last line of defense and if Burton didn't get a steal, it was ending with, well, Gardner trying to be the last line of defense.   

[mattyv1908]

Davante Gardner's offense acounts for 2.9 wins for this team and his defense accounts for 1.0 wins for this team.  His presence on the court for this year's team accounts for 4.0 wins, the highest for any Marquette player and nearly a game and a half more than the second most positively impactful player on this years roster.

Chris Otule accounts for .8 wins/season offensively, .8 wins/season defensively and 1.5 wins/season for his total impact on Marquette's record.

Deonte Burton accounts for .4 wins/season offensively, .8 wins/season defensively and 1.2 wins/season offensively and defensively.

The only players that have a better defensive impact on our team's number of wins are Derrick and Jamil at 1.3 each.  Gardner's defense benefits us the next most of all the players on the roster at 1.0.

What does it mean when advanced metrics designed to evaluate a player's contributions to their team's win totals combined with advanced metrics that show what their effect is on the court over the course of 100 possessions don't support your position?  Should we throw out the data because you don't agree with it or should you consider the possibility that the numbers point to a different outcome then what you're perceiving to be the case?

Statistics will prove out that Gardner is a dramatically better offensive player and a direct replacement defensively for Otule.  I feel like I've expounded my position clearly without using any reference to a recollection of a stretch in a game that occured weeks ago.  Do you have any empirical evidence to suggest otherwise or are you basing your opinion off of what a certain head coach might say or board members feel?

[Windyplayer]

The data suggests a much different picture than the popular opinions on this board.

Slogan for MUScoop 2014-2015 edition?

[mattyv1908]

Slogan for MUScoop 2014-2015 edition?

Let it be noted that using the same statistics comparing Wilson to Dawson would leave Ners without an argument as Wilson's numbers in every catagory are better at this stage in their career's.

Dawson needs to see the floor more, but only to play Wilson's role last year spelling Cadougan.  Wilson is playing too much and it's hurting him from a stamina perspective.

[tower912]

Matty, I understand your numbers.   In this argument, the proof was in the watching.    And do the metrics show things like Davante trying to guard the perimeter?   Or being at the back of a press? 

[BenCat12]

The bashing of Davante's defense on this site has been a little over the top.  I think most use it to defend Buzz's decisions on playing time and because we all love Chris.  I will admit Davante is a poor "team" defender, he can't block shots and often doesn't attempt to take charges.  But he is pretty solid guarding his man, whether it be off the ball (sans Wragge) or on the ball.   Davante gets backed down and scored on, far less than Chris does.  Chris is a better help and team defender with his ability to clog up the lane and block shots when his teammates get beat.  Chris covers up his teammates mistakes, Davante does not.  Both are extremely poor guarding the pick and roll.  Obviously there are times when each is needed, and it is unfortunate that they can't play together, because the team needs both of them on the floor to maximize their particular skill set.  Just another example of the dilemmas Buzz faces with personnel this year.  

[mattyv1908]

Matty, I understand your numbers.   In this argument, the proof was in the watching.   

Your taking a season's worth of statistical data and throwing it in the trash in favor of a 4-7 (??) minute stretch in the second half of the Butler game?????

That makes no sense at all.

[jesmu84]

The bashing of Davante's defense on this site has been a little over the top.  I think most use it to defend Buzz's decisions on playing time and because we all love Chris.  I will admit Davante is a poor "team" defender, he can't block shots and often doesn't attempt to take charges.  But he is pretty solid guarding his man, whether it be off the ball (sans Wragge) or on the ball.   Davante gets back down and scored on, far less than Chris does.  Chris is a better help and team defender with his ability to clog up the lane and block shots when his teammates get beat.  Chris covers up his teammates mistakes, Davante does not.  Both are extremely poor guarding the pick and roll.  Obviously there are times when each is needed, and it is unfortunate that they can't play together, because the team needs both of them on the floor to maximize their particular skill set.  Just another example of the dilemmas Buzz faces with personnel this year.  

Agree with this. I think where the Chris/Gardner defensive issue comes to light is the fact that, in Buzz's defensive scheme, the 5 is more important for the team defender aspect, as opposed to the one-on-one aspect. At least, that's my understanding.

[mattyv1908]

Agree with this. I think where the Chris/Gardner defensive issue comes to light is the fact that, in Buzz's defensive scheme, the 5 is more important for the team defender aspect, as opposed to the one-on-one aspect. At least, that's my understanding.

If that's the case, it should be noted that Buzz specifically mentions Derrick Wilson's outstanding on ball defense and his ability to guard his man.  That doesn't sound like a 'sum is greater than it's parts' logic.

I'm not trying to argue that Otule shouldn't see the court.  He is our second most effective post player on the team.  I'm just tired of the conventional wisdom ignoring concrete data in favor of the ever popular 'eye test' as we know how effective that is.