Another 2014-2015 thread

[tower912]

The incoming class, with the exception of Pierce, are having very good senior years.   Hopes are high.    Opportunities abound.   But it will, as always, come down to this.   Who can best execute Buzz's offensive and defensive schemes?   Who will he be able to trust?   I have said that this is the year for an overseas trip.   I hadn't realized that Buzz and his assistants get to have much more interaction with the players during the summer than they have been allowed to previously.    This mitigates some of my concern about bringing the incoming class up to speed.    
Hill is shooting lights out.   He could be the steal of the class, nationwide.
Shayok's team is doing well.   He is speaking publicly about playing and guarding multiple positions and taking pride in his defense.    It is like he is already politicking Buzz for PT.   Hopefully, he isn't just blowing smoke.  
Cohen is showing offensive ability and versatility.   Reports are that he will need to add muscle and play better defense.    We all know the words to this song.  

Of course, there is the endless transfer rumors/innuendoes/carousel.   I'm not going to worry about it.    Buzz is going to be forced a little bit out of his comfort zone because he simply doesn't have enough productive returning upperclassmen to give them all of the minutes.    It will be good for him.    He will have a young, athletic, switchable team.    For me, at this point, I am not euphoric, I am not despondent, I am cautiously optimistic.  

[GGGG]

Pierce's playing time has been spotty because he is a fifth year player, and some schools / conferences (??) have rules about those players not being eligible so he has to sit those games.

[jesmu84]

Oh come on Tower. Only thing that matters is who can score the most and who can dunk.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

The incoming class, with the exception of Pierce, are having very good senior years.   Hopes are high.    Opportunities abound.   But it will, as always, come down to this.   Who can best execute Buzz's offensive and defensive schemes?   Who will he be able to trust?   I have said that this is the year for an overseas trip.   I hadn't realize that Buzz and his assistants get to have much more interaction with the players during the summer than they have been allowed to previously.    This mitigates some of my concern about bringing the incoming class up to speed.   
Hill is shooting lights out.   He could be the steal of the class, nationwide.
Shayok's team is doing well.   He is speaking publicly about playing and guarding multiple positions and taking pride in his defense.    It is like he is already politicking Buzz for PT.   Hopefully, he isn't just blowing smoke.   
Cohen is showing offensive ability and versatility.   Reports are that he will need to add muscle and play better defense.    We all know the words to this song.   

Of course, there is the endless transfer rumors/innuendoes/carousel.   I'm not going to worry about it.    Buzz is going to be forced a little bit out of his comfort zone because he simply doesn't have enough productive returning upperclassmen to give them all of the minutes.    It will be good for him.    He will have a young, athletic, switchable team.    For me, at this point, I am not euphoric, I am not despondent, I am cautiously optimistic.   

Is there stkll a source that summarizes MU recruits stats? I remembered one a few years back but haven't run into it recently.

[tower912]

I know, Sultan.  In my mind, he is a 7' project.   I am glad he is coming, I just don't have high expectations for him as a freshman.    He may get minutes early (preseason, before the end of the semester)  by default, but at this point I see him as a back up to Fischer once he is eligible.    And Buzz may choose to go small when Fischer is out of games simply to get more time for everybody else.  

[wildbill sb]

Is there stkll a source that summarizes MU recruits stats? I remembered one a few years back but haven't run into it recently.

At the top of the list of topics on Dodds' Scout.com site there is a season record for our offered/declared recruits.  It's up to date, more or less, as their various high school seasons wind down.

[MarquetteDano]

Barring major transfers/injuries, I do believe next year's team will be better than this year's.  Our guard play will be much improved and that will more than offset the frontcourt graduations.

It would not surprise me if we start slow and even have an upset or two.  But by this time next year that team will be better positioned for the NCAA's than this team.

[Silkk the Shaka]

'Med Hill will come in with a D1 ready body and a skill set currently lacking. He will be the impact newcomer from this class, I've no doubt about that. Whether that means he gets Deonte-type frosh minutes or Blue/Mayo type frosh minutes remains to be seen, but of the newcomers I think he will make it the hardest for Buzz to keep off the floor.

[nyg]

'Med Hill will come in with a D1 ready body and a skill set currently lacking. He will be the impact newcomer from this class, I've no doubt about that. Whether that means he gets Deonte-type frosh minutes or Blue/Mayo type frosh minutes remains to be seen, but of the newcomers I think he will make it the hardest for Buzz to keep off the floor.

I agree with the Hill aspect.  One of these days a freshman will come in and just blow people away, but have do be abit pessimistic of next year.  Losing Gardner, Jamil and Otule leaves nothing up front until Fischer arrives mid-term.  Until then Taylor will most likely play the #5, with Pierce as a complete unknown at this point.  It will be a transition year, but 2015-2016, if MU gets Stone ,will really be a start of something special in the BE. 

[MarquetteDano]

I agree with the Hill aspect.  One of these days a freshman will come in and just blow people away, but have do be abit pessimistic of next year.  Losing Gardner, Jamil and Otule leaves nothing up front until Fischer arrives mid-term.  Until then Taylor will most likely play the #5, with Pierce as a complete unknown at this point.  It will be a transition year, but 2015-2016, if MU gets Stone ,will really be a start of something special in the BE.  

Buzz has proven that he can win with a poor frontcourt.  He did it with Butler at the '4' and Hayward at the '5' in the 2009-10 season.  Not that Butler and Hayward were poor, but neither of them were really a '4' or '5'.

What Buzz has not proven is that he can win with a poor backcourt.  I really  think the improved backcourt makes the difference next year.

[tower912]

Very few coaches can win with non-playmakers at both guard positions.    But that is this team's problem.   In theory, that has been addressed for next year.   

[mu03eng]

'Med Hill will come in with a D1 ready body and a skill set currently lacking. He will be the impact newcomer from this class, I've no doubt about that. Whether that means he gets Deonte-type frosh minutes or Blue/Mayo type frosh minutes remains to be seen, but of the newcomers I think he will make it the hardest for Buzz to keep off the floor.

I'm going out on a limb, but I really think Hill comes in and blows away the Buzz doesn't play freshman theory and gets at least Blue freshmen year minutes if not more.  He, DuWil, and Burton will be a unnatural carnal knowledgingly powerful trio when on the court at the same time that will make up for any deficiencies in the front court.  I also believe that, if he stays health, Steve Taylor Jr will emerge as a well rounded player next season that will take up some slack on the defensive end.

By the end of next season the starting line-up will be DuWil, Hill, Burton, STj, and Fischer with Mayo getting starter minutes as well

[MuMark]

This guy agrees with you..and he thinks Hill can play point.....

http://www.slamonline.com/online/college-hs/high-school/2014/02/five-under-the-radar-players-in-the-class-of-2014/

I'm going out on a limb, but I really think Hill comes in and blows away the Buzz doesn't play freshman theory and gets at least Blue freshmen year minutes if not more.  He, DuWil, and Burton will be a unnatural carnal knowledgingly powerful trio when on the court at the same time that will make up for any deficiencies in the front court.  I also believe that, if he stays health, Steve Taylor Jr will emerge as a well rounded player next season that will take up some slack on the defensive end.

By the end of next season the starting line-up will be DuWil, Hill, Burton, STj, and Fischer with Mayo getting starter minutes as well

[brandx]

I'm going out on a limb, but I really think Hill comes in and blows away the Buzz doesn't play freshman theory and gets at least Blue freshmen year minutes if not more.  He, DuWil, and Burton will be a unnatural carnal knowledgingly powerful trio when on the court at the same time that will make up for any deficiencies in the front court.  I also believe that, if he stays health, Steve Taylor Jr will emerge as a well rounded player next season that will take up some slack on the defensive end.

By the end of next season the starting line-up will be DuWil, Hill, Burton, STj, and Fischer with Mayo getting starter minutes as well

Makes me wonder if you are expecting a different coach as well. We know nobody will play harder than Derek and Juan and Buzz will look to them for senior leadership (something we really missed this year). Derek will be the starter all year, although I expect his minutes to drop down around the 20 minute level. I think Juan will also start all year and will be in the 15-20 minute level. The team (any team) needs leaders and tough guys and Derek & Juan fill that role.

That being said, I expect Burton to lead the team in scoring, with Duane, Hill JJJ, Mayo, STjr. and Fischer all possibilities to score in double figures in any given game.

[Silkk the Shaka]

I'm going out on a limb, but I really think Hill comes in and blows away the Buzz doesn't play freshman theory and gets at least Blue freshmen year minutes if not more.  He, DuWil, and Burton will be a unnatural carnal knowledgingly powerful trio when on the court at the same time that will make up for any deficiencies in the front court.  I also believe that, if he stays health, Steve Taylor Jr will emerge as a well rounded player next season that will take up some slack on the defensive end.

By the end of next season the starting line-up will be DuWil, Hill, Burton, STj, and Fischer with Mayo getting starter minutes as well

I would not be shocked at all if Hill plays 25+ mpg next year. I'm not expecting it, but I would also not be shocked. I think he is that good, and looks like he plays with an edge that Buzz gravitates towards. Potentially Crowder as a 2G. Can't wait to see him play.

[mu03eng]

Makes me wonder if you are expecting a different coach as well. We know nobody will play harder than Derek and Juan and Buzz will look to them for senior leadership (something we really missed this year). Derek will be the starter all year, although I expect his minutes to drop down around the 20 minute level. I think Juan will also start all year and will be in the 15-20 minute level. The team (any team) needs leaders and tough guys and Derek & Juan fill that role.

That being said, I expect Burton to lead the team in scoring, with Duane, Hill JJJ, Mayo, STjr. and Fischer all possibilities to score in double figures in any given game.

Outside of this year, did you see any underclassmen that clearly needed to be playing which weren't?  Anybody that you said, clearly this player is more talented but they aren't going to play?  I firmly believe that DuWil if he had been healthy would have supplanted Derrick Wilson during conference play as the starter this season let alone next season.  I respect your opinion but I don't buy the Buzz won't play underclassmen stuff, if there is a better option on offense and defense Buzz will play him.  I think both DuWil and Hill present better options next year.  Where JJJ fits in will be interesting because I think him becoming a sophomore and having a summer to bulk up and practice will do him wonders.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Outside of this year, did you see any underclassmen that clearly needed to be playing which weren't?  Anybody that you said, clearly this player is more talented but they aren't going to play?  I firmly believe that DuWil if he had been healthy would have supplanted Derrick Wilson during conference play as the starter this season let alone next season.  I respect your opinion but I don't buy the Buzz won't play underclassmen stuff, if there is a better option on offense and defense Buzz will play him.  I think both DuWil and Hill present better options next year.  Where JJJ fits in will be interesting because I think him becoming a sophomore and having a summer to bulk up and practice will do him wonders.

DuWilson or Dawson might very well get as many or more minutes than DeWilson, but I bet Derrick starts every game next year that he's healthy. That's how Buzz rolls. Juan likely too. Not that there's anything wrong with it. Buzz just uses the starter role differently than most coaches.

[We R Final Four]

I have said that this is the year for an overseas trip.  

Yes, you have.

[brandx]

DuWilson or Dawson might very well get as many or more minutes than DeWilson, but I bet Derrick starts every game next year that he's healthy. That's how Buzz rolls. Juan likely too. Not that there's anything wrong with it. Buzz just uses the starter role differently than most coaches.

Agreed and we can look forward to all of the postings saying that Duane should be the starter  

[mu03eng]

Agreed and we can look forward to all of the postings saying that Duane should be the starter  

 

I agree with your sentiment that Buzz views the starters differently.  Maybe this is semantical, but if DuWil is playing 30 minutes but not starting is that different than starting?  I'll adjust my statement, DuWil will have more minutes at the 1 than DeWil by conference play next season.

[Windyplayer]

DuWilson or Dawson might very well get as many or more minutes than DeWilson, but I bet Derrick starts every game next year that he's healthy. That's how Buzz rolls. Juan likely too. Not that there's anything wrong with it. Buzz just uses the starter role differently than most coaches.

Why not put your best line-up on the floor to start the game? By having your "go-to" starting line-up, which isn't your best, you really reduce the likelihood of starting fast and grabbing the reins from the get-go so to speak. I realize there is a lot of ebb and flow to games, but I've seen games won or lost in the first 4 minutes (Buzz usually hangs with the starters until the first TV timeout), when a team comes out on an absolute tear, i.e. Zona against Colorado in a hostile environment on Saturday night. Any insights into the strategy behind Buzz's starting line-ups?

[Henry Sugar]

I'm going out on a limb, but I really think Hill comes in and blows away the Buzz doesn't play freshman theory and gets at least Blue freshmen year minutes if not more. 

I would not be shocked at all if Hill plays 25+ mpg next year. I'm not expecting it, but I would also not be shocked. I think he is that good, and looks like he plays with an edge that Buzz gravitates towards. Potentially Crowder as a 2G. Can't wait to see him play.

You are both chasing fool's gold.

[mu03eng]

Why not put your best line-up on the floor to start the game? By having your "go-to" starting line-up, which isn't your best, you really reduce the likelihood of starting fast and grabbing the reins from the get-go so to speak. I realize there is a lot of ebb and flow to games, but I've seen games won or lost in the first 4 minutes (Buzz usually hangs with the starters until the first TV timeout), when a team comes out on an absolute tear, i.e. Zona against Colorado in a hostile environment on Saturday night. Any insights into the strategy behind Buzz's starting line-ups?

He started Eric Williams for a couple of minutes to avoid foul trouble for Jae Crowder.  Starts Juan this year for defensive purposes, other than that I don't know that he hasn't started a go-to lineup

I think Buzz prefers his best defensive line-up on the court to start the game to establish that end of the court, unfortunately our best defensive line-up is one of our worst offensive line-ups

[PGsHeroes32]

Buzz has proven that he can win with a poor frontcourt.  He did it with Butler at the '4' and Hayward at the '5' in the 2009-10 season.  Not that Butler and Hayward were poor, but neither of them were really a '4' or '5'.

What Buzz has not proven is that he can win with a poor backcourt.  I really  think the improved backcourt makes the difference next year.

Agreed. I think next years team will play with a lot better pace and that is what Buzz is best with. We should have some solid perimeter weapons next year for first time in a while.

[wadesworld]

Agreed. I think next years team will play with a lot better pace and that is what Buzz is best with. We should have some solid perimeter weapons next year for first time in a while.

Yeah, like...a year.

[Blackhat]

Melvin and Seid should have been out a year ago.   

[NotAnAlum]

You are both chasing fool's gold.

I'm really thinking (and hoping) that they are right.  Our weakness at PG is creating a domino effect.  I think that if Buzz had the freshman version of Junior C. or Dominic J. they would be starting and playing 25+ mins and Derrick would be backing up.  Dawson simply isn’t any better at running the point for us and his little bit of outside shooting doesn’t make up for his unforced errors and weaker defense.  Then if you are going to have Derrick on the floor you need Jake on the floor because as Buzz says they have to guard him out at the 3.  Neither JJ or Burton is enough of a threat to draw the defense beyond the 3 pt line.  If Cohen or Hill could consistantly hit the 3 they’d be playing in Jake’s role.   Also if your PG can shoot the 3 then you can afford to have more of a slasher at the 2.  Assuming Mayo is on the team next year that is your 3rd guard.  Since the only returning front line player is Taylor and maybe Juan Buzz almost has to play freshman/transfers at the 4 & 5.
I beleive 3 of the top guys in minutes next year will be guys who didn't play at all or played very little this year.   It almost has to happen.

[brandx]

I agree with your sentiment that Buzz views the starters differently.  Maybe this is semantical, but if DuWil is playing 30 minutes but not starting is that different than starting?  I'll adjust my statement, DuWil will have more minutes at the 1 than DeWil by conference play next season.

That's why I really think we are saying the same thing, but arguing about it anyway. I agree with your statement that Duane will play more minutes.

But as the senior leaders, I think we will see Derrick and Juan start all season next year.

[mu03eng]

That's why I really think we are saying the same thing, but arguing about it anyway. I agree with your statement that Duane will play more minutes.

But as the senior leaders, I think we will see Derrick and Juan start all season next year.

Certainly a possibility and not worth debating(so many other more interesting things to debate around here  ) but I wouldn't be surprised if Derrick isn't starting at some point next season.

[tower912]

IF Derrick is the starter...... more that likely, his running mates will be Mayo and one of the following....Hill, DuWilson, JJJ, Deonte at the 3, as well as Juan, STjr, Fischer up front....in other words, there is going to be a lot more youth, a lot more explosiveness.    A steadying hand may be necessary.   

[jesmu84]

I agree with your sentiment that Buzz views the starters differently.  Maybe this is semantical, but if DuWil is playing 30 minutes but not starting is that different than starting?  I'll adjust my statement, DuWil will have more minutes at the 1 than DeWil by conference play next season.

If that happens, will Ners still be saying that Dawson deserves 30/game? You'd have to assume at that point Dawson isn't playing much more than he is now, so he'd have to have the same attitude, right?

[mu03eng]

If that happens, will Ners still be saying that Dawson deserves 30/game? You'd have to assume at that point Dawson isn't playing much more than he is now, so he'd have to have the same attitude, right?

One would think

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

Why not put your best line-up on the floor to start the game? By having your "go-to" starting line-up, which isn't your best, you really reduce the likelihood of starting fast and grabbing the reins from the get-go so to speak. I realize there is a lot of ebb and flow to games, but I've seen games won or lost in the first 4 minutes (Buzz usually hangs with the starters until the first TV timeout), when a team comes out on an absolute tear, i.e. Zona against Colorado in a hostile environment on Saturday night. Any insights into the strategy behind Buzz's starting line-ups?

It's not a common strategy but it has been used by some of the greats. Phil Jackson used to start Kobe on the bench to try and catch teams off guard.

[tower912]

Going into the way back machine....the Lakers would start Kurt Rambis and bring Mychal Thompson off of the bench.    The 76'ers started Marc Iavaroni over Bobby Jones.   Ricky Pierce with the Bucks.  Starting doesn't matter nearly as much as minutes.   

[bilsu]

No one would be asking for Dawson to play more, if Duane Wilson had not got hurt. You also have to consider that both Duane and Dawson can play shooting guard. Derrick can only play point. The Wilson's will probably play a similar amount of time, but all of Derrick's time will be a the point.

[mileskishnish72]

Nobody commenting on Malek?

[Silkk the Shaka]

You are both chasing fool's gold.

Sugar, I know that odds are on your side on this one. I would not bet on him getting 25+ mpg. However, I think a reasonable estimate is somewhere between Burton and Blue/Mayo (12 mpg on the low side, 20 mpg on the high side). My reaoning being that he has the physical tools like Burton for his position from day 1, he reportedly has the defensive tenacity like freshman Blue (which Buzz clearly rewards), and the creative scoring skills of freshman Mayo. Combine all that with the fact that there will be ~100 mpg graduating, and I think the 12-20 mpg band is a failry safe bet.

However, if he suprises on the upside, he could play 25 mpg or more. Would I bet on it or even expect it? No, but it's not exactly out of the realm of possibility. I'll put it like this since I know you'll appreciate it. My best bet would be 16 mpg for him next year. I'm 68% confident that he'd play between 12 & 20 mpg, and 95% confident that he'd play between 8 & 24 mpg. Meaning I think there's a 2.5% chance he'll get 25+ mpg, but I wouldn't be totally shocked if it happened either. Is that still fool's gold?

[willie warrior]

No one would be asking for Dawson to play more, if Duane Wilson had not got hurt. You also have to consider that both Duane and Dawson can play shooting guard. Derrick can only play point. The Wilson's will probably play a similar amount of time, but all of Derrick's time will be a the point.

Two famous quotes sum it all up:
Kevin O'neil doing play analysis: MU is playing 4 on 5 with that PG out there
MU Fan's 12 year old daughter (who knows nothing about basketball): "Daddy. why isn't anybody guarding #12?"

[Henry Sugar]

However, if he suprises on the upside, he could play 25 mpg or more. Would I bet on it or even expect it? No, but it's not exactly out of the realm of possibility. I'll put it like this since I know you'll appreciate it. My best bet would be 16 mpg for him next year. I'm 68% confident that he'd play between 12 & 20 mpg, and 95% confident that he'd play between 8 & 24 mpg. Meaning I think there's a 2.5% chance he'll get 25+ mpg, but I wouldn't be totally shocked if it happened either. Is that still fool's gold?

Now you are speaking my language!

My 95% confidence interval is somewhere between 8-20 mpg, personally

[Hards Alumni]

Now you are speaking my language!

My 95% confidence interval is somewhere between 8-20 mpg, personally

I'm going to say with 100% confidence that he plays somewhere between 0-40 mpg!

[brandx]

I'm going to say with 100% confidence that he plays somewhere between 0-40 mpg!

I'm only about 98.75% confident on your prediction. He 'might' actually play 0 or 40 minutes.

[Silkk the Shaka]

Now you are speaking my language!

My 95% confidence interval is somewhere between 8-20 mpg, personally

[Archies Bat]

To spice the topic up even more, 247 Crystal Ball has three new MU predictions for Jarvis Garret within the last day, two of which switched their predictions from others to MU.

[oldwarrior81]

It's not a common strategy but it has been used by some of the greats. Phil Jackson used to start Kobe on the bench to try and catch teams off guard.

Kobe came off the bench for the first 4 games that Phil Jackson coached the Lakers in 1999.  After that Bryant started 1078 of 1079 games over the 12 seasons Jackson coached the Lakers.

[mu03eng]

Kobe came off the bench for the first 4 games that Phil Jackson coached the Lakers in 1999.  After that Bryant started 1078 of 1079 games over the 12 seasons Jackson coached the Lakers.

yeah....but still