2024 NFL Offseason and Draft Thread

[DegenerateDish]

Who would have guessed Jerry Richardson would go down as the least embarrassing owner of the Carolina Panthers?

I can’t imagine what he’s like behind closed doors.

I know there’s only 32 of them, but if I’m a head coaching candidate this offseason with options, I’m probably not house hunting in Charlotte.

[WhiteTrash]

That happens at Lambeau every home game.

Classic. Well done. 

[WhiteTrash]

I’d stick with Fields if I’m Chicago. Try to trade that #1.

Last five games, not bad, not great. 4TDs, 3INTs, 13 Sacks. = $35M/YR?

[tower912]

Rams escape from NY with a road win against the Giants.  We were banged up early on, but all key players are healthy now (crosses fingers). 

Best record in football over the last two months (6-1), with our only loss on the road in OT vs the team with the best overall record (Baltimore). 

Hoping we can win at least one playoff game.

Stafford returns to Detroit.

[Herman Cain]

Tomlin keeps his consecutive non losing season streak alive. He is now at 17 season . Landry , 21 , and Belichick , 19, are ahead of him

https://www.nfl.com/news/steelers-head-coach-mike-tomlin-clinches-17th-straight-non-losing-season-to-begi

[Lennys Tap]

Dan Campbell is who he is.   He plays to win.   No one in that locker room will question that decision.

Going for it from the two? Cool. Going for it from the three and a half? Defensible. Going for it from the 7? Idiotic. And if no one in the locker room will question that call they’re idiots, too. It’s the equivalent of 20 seconds left in the game, 4th down, down 3 points from the 7 yard line. Going for it is very low %, just plain dumb. You kick it and play OT.

[tower912]

He trusts his offense more than he trusts his defense.    He played to win.   

[Lennys Tap]

He trusts his offense more than he trusts his defense.    He played to win.

His offense had a better chance of winning the game in OT than it had of scoring a TD on one play from the 7. Being desperate when there’s no need to be isn’t “playing to win”. You’ll lose a whole lot more often than you’ll win doing that. It’s dumb.

[tower912]

Thanks, Lenny, for reassuring me that Campbell did the right thing.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Thanks, Lenny, for reassuring me that Campbell did the right thing.

lol.

[Lennys Tap]

Thanks, Lenny, for reassuring me that Campbell did the right thing.

LOL

[tower912]

Campbell played for the tie against Seattle earlier in the season.   Seahawks got the OT kickoff, drove down the field and scored easily.  Since then, every time the choice has been to play it safe and trust his defense to hold on vs. be aggressive and trust his offense to make the big play, he has chosen his offense.   

The shocker would have been if he had played it safe.   As shocking as Shaka telling his players to not shoot open 3's.

[Lennys Tap]

Campbell played for the tie against Seattle earlier in the season.   Seahawks got the OT kickoff, drove down the field and scored easily.  Since then, every time the choice has been to play it safe and trust his defense to hold on vs. be aggressive and trust his offense to make the big play, he has chosen his offense.   

The shocker would have been if he had played it safe.   As shocking as Shaka telling his players to not shoot open 3's.

An open 3? From just behind the 3 point line (2 yard line) with Oso wide open for 2 under the bucket? Questionable. From 40 feet out, down 2 with Oso standing under the basket by himself for the easy 2 (and the tie). Never.

[SoCalEagle]

Stafford returns to Detroit.

That would be fun to watch.  Stafford for L.A., Goff for Detroit.  Switch em up and see how it all turns out. 

[MU82]

I can’t imagine what he’s like behind closed doors.

I know there’s only 32 of them, but if I’m a head coaching candidate this offseason with options, I’m probably not house hunting in Charlotte.

Entitled, rich a-hole. NFL should fine him $1 million, not that he'd even feel it.

Plenty of coaches will line up for his money. Some won't be swayed by it, but plenty will seriously consider it and one will take it.

Tepper and Harbaugh seem like a delicious marriage!

[tower912]

An open 3? From just behind the 3 point line (2 yard line) with Oso wide open for 2 under the bucket? Questionable. From 40 feet out, down 2 with Oso standing under the basket by himself for the easy 2 (and the tie). Never.

That is some serious JB/Sultan love child level of pedantic posting.

[MU82]

I couldn't find information on the odds of succeeding on a 2-point conversion from the 7-yard line, but between 2013 and 2022, a surprisingly high 43% of attempts on 4th-and-7 were successful.

Even if you say it's half that on 4th-and-goal from the 7 because there's less field to work with, the defense is more focused, etc, that's still 20%+ ... better than I'd have thought.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-fourth-down-conversion-chart-rate-by-distance/vofkeub6xwms6imajxqkfipp

We can debate whether or not it was wise to go for the conversion from the 7, though as tower says Campbell knows his team. As it turned out, Detroit had a free play because the Cowboys went offside. And trying from the 2 and the 3 1/2 yard lines were no-brainers. Had the ref not jobbed the Lions on the first one, the 7-yard try would have never happened.

[GB Warrior]

I couldn't find information on the odds of succeeding on a 2-point conversion from the 7-yard line, but between 2013 and 2022, a surprisingly high 43% of attempts on 4th-and-7 were successful.

Even if you say it's half that on 4th-and-goal from the 7 because there's less field to work with, the defense is more focused, etc, that's still 20%+ ... better than I'd have thought.

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/nfl-fourth-down-conversion-chart-rate-by-distance/vofkeub6xwms6imajxqkfipp

We can debate whether or not it was wise to go for the conversion from the 7, though as tower says Campbell knows his team. As it turned out, Detroit had a free play because the Cowboys went offside. And trying from the 2 and the 3 1/2 yard lines were no-brainers. Had the ref not jobbed the Lions on the first one, the 7-yard try would have never happened.

In a vacuum, I'm not sure I have a problem with it. Game on the line, I'd hope the Packers would do the same giving their XP challenges.

The issue probably comes from how many plays preceeded it. Cowboys got a lot of looks at what the Lions were trying and that helps when the Lions are down to their 3rd or 4th best play call.

[tower912]

The NFL's stance is that the Lions engaged in deception and gamesmanship and it backfired.

[DegenerateDish]

Semi sneaky big story that emerged from yesterday is the Cardinals dropping to 4 in the draft order. The Bears leverage increases dramatically with AZ dropping. Having NE/WAS at two/three (no matter the order) and having the Giants at 5 is great for them.

I have no idea what route they should take. Every analytical metric (both on the field and financially) says to move on from Fields. Everyone is focused on Caleb and Maye, but what the Bears think of Jayden Daniels might be the most important decision.

If they bring back Fields, their options in 2024 are endless. They could trade from 1 to 3, and then 3 to 5 and massively clean up. That doesn’t even account for their own pick (currently at 10). Taking Caleb at 1, and then Turner at 10, sets them up financially for the next 5 years.

They’re up to 7th in weighted DVOA, which is insane considering where they were around week 4. If they beat Green Bay on Sunday, the McCaskey’s will probably meatball and bring back the entire coaching staff (which would be a mistake). This will be the most fascinating offseason they’ve ever had coming up, and they can not mess it up.

[Jockey]

They’re up to 7th in weighted DVOA, which is insane considering where they were around week 4. If they beat Green Bay on Sunday, the McCaskey’s will probably meatball and bring back the entire coaching staff (which would be a mistake). This will be the most fascinating offseason they’ve ever had coming up, and they can not mess it up.

Based on their history under the McCaskey’s, they can mess it up incredibly easy.

[DegenerateDish]

Based on their history under the McCaskey’s, they can mess it up incredibly easy.

Honestly, if they beat Green Bay, I’m scared how “confident” the McCaskey’s would be. The amount of stupid meatball reactions and stuff that would come out of a Bears victory could be very detrimental long term.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Isn’t that why they brought Warren on board?

[tower912]

The NFL's stance is that the Lions engaged in deception and gamesmanship and it backfired.

Purely coincidentally, the Dallas/Detroit officiating crew will not be working the playoffs.    Same crew from the GB/KC game.   If memory serves, there was controversy at the end of that game, too.

[Pakuni]

Isn’t that why they brought Warren on board?

Mostly brought him in to cut a stadium deal and run the business side of the franchise. Warren isn't a "football guy." He's  a lawyer.