Jerry Palm's take on Marquette

[Windyplayer]

He has us out of the tourney as of now and says, "The Golden Eagles have a similar problem to Michigan State. They are 8-11vs the RPI top 200. Also, they played a bad non-conference schedule and can't beat anyone good away from home. Worse than that is now they are starting to lose at home too."

Talk about not doing your homework. How misleading is that statistic about our record against teams in the top 200? How can he say that without qualifying that statement with "10 of those losses came against teams in the TOP 25!" Don't get me started on the road losses. What decent team can beat anyone (really) good away from home. Not many. He copped out on this analysis. It gives a complete misrepresentation of this team. Good thing he's not on the committee.

[Tugg Speedman]

Where does he get 8 wins against top 200?

Using Real-Time RPI, here are our top 200 wins this year

Team        RPI
Bucknell     97
UWGB        169
UWM          99
WVU          23
Rutgers      103
ND             10
Syracuse     21
USF            154
S Hall          91

I count 9, not 8.  

Further will still have 4 more games against top 200 teams plus the BE tourney.  If we beat Prov, S Hall (away), Cincy and round 1 of the BE tourney, won't Jerry be shocked to find we have 13 top 200 wins.  (14 if we upset Uconn)

Also, DePaul is 214 and has been playing well of late.  They still have USF and Rutgers at home.  It would not shock me if they win these games and sneak into the top 200 as well.  Another top 200 win to blow Jerry away.

Lastly, is Jerry really trying to say had we not scheduled South Dakota (329) TAMCC (276), Longwood (319) and Miss. Valley State (220) but instead played powers like LaSalle (168), Liberty (130), Robert Morris (127) and/or Ball State (185) he'd have us in?  Is he saying he doubts we could beat teams like these?

This is a really weak argument.

[lab_warrior]

Jerry, thanks for fulfilling every stereotype I have of old, crusty, dim-witted, under-informed, hyper-opinionated traditional print journalists. 

[Windyplayer]

Lastly, is Jerry really trying to say had we not scheduled South Dakota (329) TAMCC (276), Longwood (319) and Miss. Valley State (220) but instead played powers like LaSalle (168), Liberty (130), Robert Morris (127) and/or Ball State (185) he'd have us in?  Is he saying he doubts we could beat teams like these?

Yeah, I hate that analysis. That's why teams like Princeton, Valparaiso, etc have higher RPI rankings than us because of exactly what you described above. Something to think about in the future though. If that's what RPI and the committee want, give it to'em. Schedule smarter.

[Tugg Speedman]

If that's what RPI and the committee want, give it to'em. Schedule smarter.

Easier said then done.  Schedules are made before we know their RPIs.

Should Cottingham hire an advanced scout for "buy games"?

[only a warrior]

Who is Jerry Palm and why does he have your underwear in such a knot?

[MarquetteDano]

Who is Jerry Palm and why does he have your underwear in such a knot?

I believe he runs the website College RPI.  I don't think Palm made those comments after the Seton Hall game, so that is probably why he undercounts our RPI200 wins.

Not really a suprise that Palm has us out as he is tied to the RPI.  Our RPI isn't that good.  I think if anyone says were are not "in" at this point, I only ask that the person takes our schedule and honestly answers whether or not a team ahead of us would have a better record at this point.

For instance, I see Palm had Colorado State in the field as an at large earlier this week.  They lost to Sam Houston State at home.  They lost to Hampton in a netural setting.  Their biggest victory is at UNLV (#28 in Pomeroy).  And then went on to lose to UNLV at home.

Not getting his logic.

[4everwarriors]

Palm may have his numbers jumbled a bit, but his overall analysis is spot on.

[Husker4MU]

The buy games we get are terrible year in and year out.  Centenary is transitioning back to Division II, Longwood and South Dakota have been D1 for just a couple of years and all the HBCUs are annual RPI sinkers.  It didn't take a crystal ball in November to see that the buy games would pull down the RPI.

Geography plays into it - we played all the WI schools (and they helped the RPI) but there are a limited number of Division I teams in the region in comparison to the Eastern seaboard.

Maybe it's all a moot point.  According to the media members at this year's bracket breakdown, the RPI was discussed very little.

And a word about Palm.  He is far from an old media guy.  He has his own website that he parlayed into a role at cbssports.com.  He's also trying to predict the field, not put in the teams that he finds deserving.

[romey]

Easier said then done.  Schedules are made before we know their RPIs.

Should Cottingham hire an advanced scout for "buy games"?

While this is true to some extent, you can't tell me we really thought of Centenary and longwood (for example) as "good" teams for our non-conference schedule.  They haven't been sub-200 for a while I'm guessing.

[Tugg Speedman]

The buy games we get are terrible year in and year out.  Centenary is transitioning back to Division II, Longwood and South Dakota have been D1 for just a couple of years and all the HBCUs are annual RPI sinkers.  It didn't take a crystal ball in November to see that the buy games would pull down the RPI.

MU wants 16 home games because of the revenue it generates.  Lots of RPI 100 to 150 teams would play us if we agreed to a home and home schedule.  We don't because we could not play 16 home games the following season.

Not enough RPI 150 to 250 teams within a bus ride of Milwaukee to take our money in a "buy game."  We have to compete with the B10, ND, DePaul, etc. for these teams to name a few.  So, we are stuck with the bottom of the barrel that are willing to fly up here in December.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Where does he get 8 wins against top 200?

Using Real-Time RPI, here are our top 200 wins this year

Team        RPI
Bucknell     97
UWGB        169
UWM          99
WVU          23
Rutgers      103
ND             10
Syracuse     21
USF            154
S Hall          91

I count 9, not 8.  

Further will still have 4 more games against top 200 teams plus the BE tourney.  If we beat Prov, S Hall (away), Cincy and round 1 of the BE tourney, won't Jerry be shocked to find we have 13 top 200 wins.  (14 if we upset Uconn)

Also, DePaul is 214 and has been playing well of late.  They still have USF and Rutgers at home.  It would not shock me if they win these games and sneak into the top 200 as well.  Another top 200 win to blow Jerry away.

Lastly, is Jerry really trying to say had we not scheduled South Dakota (329) TAMCC (276), Longwood (319) and Miss. Valley State (220) but instead played powers like LaSalle (168), Liberty (130), Robert Morris (127) and/or Ball State (185) he'd have us in?  Is he saying he doubts we could beat teams like these?

This is a really weak argument.

When did he write his article?  UW-hyphen-M has moved up and down this week in and out of the top 100.  That's where he got 8 vs 9, hardly some kind of dramatic oversight.  I've told you before, why do you keep relying on real time RPI?  It has so many flaws to it, don't rely on it...it's not a good RPI site.


When Jerry and everyone else does their examination, they have to do it at a 30,000 foot level. 

Colorado State has a projected RPI of 38.6.  Marquette's projected RPI is 70.4.  Jerry is a RPI guy and that's why he's stating that....he's not alone, a lot of people are picking Colorado State (I'm not one of them).

Incidentally, in the Bracket Matrix we have now slipped from a consensus 10 seed to a consensus 11 seed.

[brewcity77]

Easier said then done.  Schedules are made before we know their RPIs.

Should Cottingham hire an advanced scout for "buy games"?

I think we could improve it if we scheduled better conferences. Instead of SWAC teams, look at the Horizon League or Missouri Valley. How about old CUSA foes? Even if the teams tank, they should still be in the 175-250 range. I think fixing scheduling is easier than we sometimes make it out to be.

[mviale]

This just in.  St johns may be an elite 8 team

[ChicosBailBonds]

Further proof..."realtime RPI" isn't "realtime", they haven't even factored in UWM's bed crapping to Buffalo yesterday when they lost by 15 points.

Their "real" RPI is 107, not 99. 

[Lennys Tap]

When did he write his article?  UW-hyphen-M has moved up and down this week in and out of the top 100.  That's where he got 8 vs 9, hardly some kind of dramatic oversight.  I've told you before, why do you keep relying on real time RPI?  It has so many flaws to it, don't rely on it...it's not a good RPI site.


When Jerry and everyone else does their examination, they have to do it at a 30,000 foot level. 

I know that you'e a fan and pen pal of Jerry but UWM moving in and out of the top 100 is of no consequence as he is giving a record against the top 200. Even at 30,000 feet that's a big miss.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I know that you'e a fan and pen pal of Jerry but UWM moving in and out of the top 100 is of no consequence as he is giving a record against the top 200. Even at 30,000 feet that's a big miss.

Why don't you look at what the actual post was?   His graphic clearly says 9 wins and 11 losses against the top 200.  The sentence below the graphic says 8 wins.  Do you think Jerry is typing in the HTML for CBS?  Did a web producer screw it up?  Did some intern at CBS?  Did Jerry transpose a number?  Who knows, but I would assume some people on this board could see he clearly showed 9-11.  

Here's the graphic so I can assist you with it

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch




I've known Jerry for more than a decade....we both went to school in the state of Indiana and have chuckled often about IU and PU often over the years.  He's a good guy, we're more than pen pals. I admire a guy that did something on his own dime and has now been picked up as part of CBS and has his own side company doing what he loves on the side.  That's America...hard work paid off for him.  He deserves it.

[Marquette84]

Where does he get 8 wins against top 200?

Using Real-Time RPI, here are our top 200 wins this year

Team        RPI
Bucknell     97
UWGB        169
UWM          99
WVU          23
Rutgers      103
ND             10
Syracuse     21
USF            154
S Hall          91

I count 9, not 8.  

Perhaps he wrote this before 10:00 PM last night.  Prior to last night's win, 8 top 200 wins was accurate.

[Lennys Tap]

Why don't you look at what the actual post was?   His graphic clearly says 9 wins and 11 losses against the top 200.  The sentence below the graphic says 8 wins.  Do you think Jerry is typing in the HTML for CBS?  Did a web producer screw it up?  Did some intern at CBS?  Did Jerry transpose a number?  Who knows, but I would assume some people on this board could see he clearly showed 9-11.  

Here's the graphic so I can assist you with it

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology/bubble-watch




I've known Jerry for more than a decade....we both went to school in the state of Indiana and have chuckled often about IU and PU often over the years.  He's a good guy, we're more than pen pals. I admire a guy that did something on his own dime and has now been picked up as part of CBS and has his own side company doing what he loves on the side.  That's America...hard work paid off for him.  He deserves it.

Easy, big fella. You're the one who incorrectly suggested the mistake was because of UWM moving in and out of the top 100 (rather than the top 200) - not me.

Apologies if I underestimated the depth of your relationship with Jerry. I'm happy you have someone you admire to chuckle with and be inspired by - and while my definition of what America is (having "his own side company doing what he loves on the side") may differ somewhat from yours, I'll defend to the death your right to hold to that notion.

[ChicosBailBonds]

And YOU were also the one that said Jerry screwed up without knowing the facts or recognizing that he did have 9 wins there for all to see and who bothered to look at the details.  

I have a lot of definitions of America, Jerry just happens to fit one of them.  I'm sure you do, too.

[Tugg Speedman]

Chicos

Last week in a post I looked at MU's one's top25 ROAD record.  You said it was an invented statistic and implied it was meaningless.  I don't know you and have never shared a beer with you.

Now you are defending record vtop200 as if it is the gospel that drives NCAA bids.  You know Jerry and have shared a beer with him.

I see how this works.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Chicos

Last week in a post I looked at MU's one's top25 ROAD record.  You said it was an invented statistic and implied it was meaningless.  I don't know you and have never shared a beer with you.

Now you are defending record vtop200 as if it is the gospel that drives NCAA bids.  You know Jerry and have shared a beer with him.

I see how this works.

I'm not defending top 200 at all.   I said, based on my talks with Doug Elgin (who used to chair the selection committee) that the data isn't broken out like you had it.  It's broken out into top 50, top 100.  It is what it is.  Now, maybe that's changed.

You got on Jerry's position here for him saying 8-11.  Fair enough, of course we don't know if he said it or if an intern or someone else did at CBS.  Jerry isn't coding up the data at CBS, a web producer is.  Lenny and others piled on for ONE REASON and ONE REASON only...because I know Jerry.  This is their little way to do their gotcha crap they do.

I showed you and Lenny that, in fact, Jerry clearly showed 9-11 with the graphic. I don't know how 8-11 got there.  Jerry's mistake, CBS mistake, some intern?  Who knows. 

Quite frankly, in every discussion I've had, the top 200 is meaningless unless you have losses there.  Winning games against teams ranked 101 to 200 is what a NCAA team is SUPPOSED TO DO.   The categories that count are top 50 and top 100 wins.  We are not doing well in that area....5-11 is not something to hang your hat on.

I'd love to have that beer with you sometime. 

[Eye]

Palm tends to be a pretty conservative guy on both ends of the selection spectrum, and for decent reasons, as it helps drive traffic to his site. For example, never had MU in last year, even after the win over UL or either of the wins in the BE tourney. When push comes to shove, I'll trust his judgments on who'll be in the field by the time Selection Sunday rolls around more than anybody else in the country.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Palm tends to be a pretty conservative guy on both ends of the selection spectrum, and for decent reasons, as it helps drive traffic to his site. For example, never had MU in last year, even after the win over UL or either of the wins in the BE tourney. When push comes to shove, I'll trust his judgments on who'll be in the field by the time Selection Sunday rolls around more than anybody else in the country.

Eye, with all due respect, what are you talking about?

Palm got 65 out of 65 correct last year.  He got 55 of 65 right within one seed.

He had Marquette in as an 8 seed in his final bracket.  MU was one of the ones he missed on the seed by more than 1, but he certainly had MU in and had them in by February, not after 2 Big East Tourney wins.  You are WAY off.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix_2010.htm

Palm had them into the tournament starting February 24th win our win against St. John's....as an 11 seed. We beat Louisville a week later, but we were already in his bracket.  Then he moved us up to a 9 seed BEFORE we beat Louisville...March 1st, 9 seed.  March 2nd, we beat Louisville.

Who could forget this thread of idiocy started by Mr. Hayward (now Canadian Dimes).   

http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=18663.msg188274#msg188274



And no Eye, his predictions have nothing to do with trying to play it conservatively to get more eyeballs.  He reports based on data.  If he thinks they are in, he says it.  If he thinks they're not in, he says it.

[Eye]

Not sure what you missed about my post CBB, but I trust his judgment very much as to whether he thinks someone will/will not make the tournament, more than anybody else that does this, and particularly Lunardi. I like him for a lot of the same reasons you like him. He's done it on his own, calls it like he sees it and does so in a pretty entertaining way.

That being said, even after the wins over UL and nova in the BE tournament, he still had MU on his Fence Sitters page last year, and acknowledged as such in some Facebook comments we made back and forth. Still didn't consider them a lock after both of those wins last year, regardless of where he had them seeded in his brackets at the time.

I still think he's pretty conservative when calling someone a lock IMHO.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Not sure what you missed about my post CBB, but I trust his judgment very much as to whether he thinks someone will/will not make the tournament, more than anybody else that does this, and particularly Lunardi. I like him for a lot of the same reasons you like him. He's done it on his own, calls it like he sees it and does so in a pretty entertaining way.

That being said, even after the wins over UL and nova in the BE tournament, he still had MU on his Fence Sitters page last year, and acknowledged as such in some Facebook comments we made back and forth. Still didn't consider them a lock after both of those wins last year, regardless of where he had them seeded in his brackets at the time.

I still think he's pretty conservative when calling someone a lock IMHO.

I got the part about you trusting his judgment overall.  Where I was puzzled and remain so is why you were saying he didn't have MU in the tournament.... "never had MU in last year, even after the win over UL or either of the wins in the BE tourney".   That just isn't factually correct.  He had MU in his brackets starting Feb 24th, more than a week before we played UL and several weeks before we played in the BE Tournament.  That's where I was struggling with your comments.

[Eye]

Seems to me you and I were judging in differently. To me in is in as in a lock to be in the tournament, zero tension on Selection Sunday.

[ChicosBailBonds]

Seems to me you and I were judging in differently. To me in is in as in a lock to be in the tournament, zero tension on Selection Sunday.

That's probably the disconnect...thanks.  To me, "in" was merely in his bracket.  Peace

[ChicosBailBonds]

Easier said then done.  Schedules are made before we know their RPIs.

Should Cottingham hire an advanced scout for "buy games"?

"Realtime" RPI just updated their numbers to include the UWM loss from 24 hours ago....they now have them at 107 as well.

[brewcity77]

It's highly unlikely, but we could really use a UW-M win at Cleveland State on Thursday. That coupled with a Marquette win at UConn would be a really nice pair of belated birthday presents to me.