[Cracked Sidewalks] Marquette wades into Non-Conference Schedule Bit by Bit

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Marquette wades into Non-Conference Schedule Bit by Bit

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Rob Lowe)

I've always been a fan of ripping the band-aid off right away instead of the slow pull. I like to jump straight into the pool instead of wading in slowly.  Basically, it's my preference to get the unpleasantness over with as quickly as possible.  And let's face it.  Almost always, the non-conference schedule is some level of unpleasantness.  This portion of the schedule is not the reason that people buy season tickets.   In fact, griping about the non-conference schedule is somewhat of an annual ritual amongst Marquette fans.

Therefore, I found it weird (at best) that Marquette has insisted on releasing the schedule one game at a time.  Today's announcement is that Marquette is going to open up the season with...

CENTENARY!  YES!

I guess the logic is that we get an entire day to focus on each opponent. Maybe this gives each team on the schedule an opportunity for a further analysis. Perhaps Centenary gets their time in the sun. Who knows? Maybe the non-conference schedule is a treat to be savored slowly and enjoyed, instead of unpleasantness and pain.  Neat... their nickname is the Gents.

Or, we can find out that Centenary was 8-23 last season in the Summit League, with a Pomeroy Rating of 246. We could also do a little digging, and find out that their best Pomeroy Rating was back in 2004, at 181.  Since then, they've been 316, 317, 248, and 279. Instead of being a savory morsel, Centenary is truly just another bad team Marquette will play because the economics dictate it.  Now, for an entire day for two weeks, we get to focus on each portion of the non-conference schedule being bad.

I appreciate the desire of Marquette, or any organization, to experiment.  In general, their coverage is outstanding (like last year's video clips).  But a good chunk of the schedule is already out there in draft format on the Wiki.   Not to mention that Wisconsin has already posted their schedule (by the way, we play them on Dec. 12th).  We even provided more info a few weeks ago.  Why not just release the whole thing all at once?  Is there that much suspense to find out what Friday or Saturday in December we play Seattle?

Like a ritual of late summer, Marquette releases the non-conference schedule, and then the Internet breaks out with complaints.  It usually goes as follows:

• Defender - all major programs play some number of crap teams for non-conference schedules
  
• Season Ticket Holder - yeah, but I'm the one shelling out $XXXX(X?) to watch this junk
• Rinse and repeat as necessary.

One exception to griping was last year, when the comments weren't actually that bad.  I attribute this mostly because MU had added another tough opponent in NC State.  That was a surprise last year but isn't this year.  Plus, the schedule was released and then we moved on.  Now, get ready for a solid two weeks (at least) of replaying the above complaints about the non-conference schedule.  Maybe tomorrow we can find out when MU plays Presbyterian.  Yay?

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2009/07/marquette-wades-into-non-conference.html

[bilsu]

It is not like the season is next week. So what is the big deal about releasing the schedule one game at a time. We need the bottom feeder teams for our young inexperinced team to get their feet wet. Hopefully, they will not lose one of these games.

[77ncaachamps]

Maybe the next opponent will be "revealed" in the form of a question on Marquette's Twitter Trivia Tuesdays.

[bamamarquettefan]

We just can't load up on teams like Centenary.  Someone please correct me if I don't have the RPI right, but my understanding is it is basically one part the teams record, two parts opponents record, and one part opponents' oppoents record.

Let's say MU went 23-9 next year (.71875 winning%), with their opponents going 554-446 (.554) and the opponents opponents playing .500.  That's an RPI of .581688, which would have been good for the 46th RPI based on last year's results.

Now let's say in addition to that record, MU playes Centenary.  It doesn't matter how bad we beat them, we win to improve to 24-9 (.72727), but their 8-23 mark drops our overall opponent's % to .545102 and opp's opp to .495.  Overall, we drop to .578119 to 51st place.

So by BEATING Centenary we drop FIVE spots in the RPI.  So you can see how just playing one, much less several, of these non-top 200 teams can really cost us a bid to the NCAA. It's just not worth it, even if we never lose one of these games.

[Hards Alumni]

looks like you need a lesson in basketball finance.

[Marquette84]

We just can't load up on teams like Centenary.  Someone please correct me if I don't have the RPI right, but my understanding is it is basically one part the teams record, two parts opponents record, and one part opponents' oppoents record.

Let's say MU went 23-9 next year (.71875 winning%), with their opponents going 554-446 (.554) and the opponents opponents playing .500.  That's an RPI of .581688, which would have been good for the 46th RPI based on last year's results.

Now let's say in addition to that record, MU playes Centenary.  It doesn't matter how bad we beat them, we win to improve to 24-9 (.72727), but their 8-23 mark drops our overall opponent's % to .545102 and opp's opp to .495.  Overall, we drop to .578119 to 51st place.

So by BEATING Centenary we drop FIVE spots in the RPI.  So you can see how just playing one, much less several, of these non-top 200 teams can really cost us a bid to the NCAA. It's just not worth it, even if we never lose one of these games.

I'm not sure I understand how you determined that our opponents opponents would drop to .495.

Centenaray's non-conference opponnents were a collective 229-184, and conference opponents by definition were .500.  There's no way Centenaray's opponents record would cause a drop from. 500 to .495.  It would be an increase--just a matter of how much.  

If I assume an increase in our opponent's opponents winning percentage to .505, our RPI rank drops from .5816  (46th) to .5807 (47th), a drop of only 1 spot.

[Brewtown Andy]

Since Centenary is the opener, wouldn't it be pointless to calculate an RPI that early in the season?

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Marquette wades into Non-Conference Schedule Bit by Bit
Like a ritual of late summer, Marquette releases the non-conference schedule, and then the Internet breaks out with complaints.  It usually goes as follows:

• Defender - all major programs play some number of crap teams for non-conference schedules
  
• Season Ticket Holder - yeah, but I'm the one shelling out $XXXX(X?) to watch this junk
• Rinse and repeat as necessary.

One exception to griping was last year, when the comments weren't actually that bad.  I attribute this mostly because MU had added another tough opponent in NC State.  That was a surprise last year but isn't this year.  Plus, the schedule was released and then we moved on.  Now, get ready for a solid two weeks (at least) of replaying the above complaints about the non-conference schedule.  Maybe tomorrow we can find out when MU plays Presbyterian.  Yay?

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2009/07/marquette-wades-into-non-conference.html

This is a great point, and also keep in mind that there was a polarizing figure at the head of MU before last season, and often the schedule conversation would often turn into either pro or anti TC.

Buzz seems less polarizing and controversial so far in his tenure, so the conversations about things like the non-conf. schedule don't have such defined sides.

Hopefully Buzz has another good season and it can stay this way.

[dsfire]

So by BEATING Centenary we drop FIVE spots in the RPI.  So you can see how just playing one, much less several, of these non-top 200 teams can really cost us a bid to the NCAA. It's just not worth it, even if we never lose one of these games.

I can't find a link at the moment, but I believe the committee stopped looking at RPI rankings for the selection process and only uses them to determine which teams are 1-25, 26-50, 51-100 to see what your records are against those ranges of teams.  The seeding process may still take actual RPI rank into account; I'm not sure.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

Is it appropriate to mention "beating the Gentleman" in mixed company?

[CrackedSidewalksSays]

Marquette wades into Non-Conference Schedule Bit by Bit

Written by: noreply@blogger.com (Rob Lowe)

UPDATED

Evidently, the reason to release the schedule one day at a time is to drive additional traffic to the www.gomarquette.com website.  In truth, the folks at Marquette do a pretty good job with their online content.  Their video clips are great, so visit the website and click around.

That said, I still think releasing the schedule one day at a time has limited upside and more downside.

====
I've always been a fan of ripping the band-aid off right away instead of the slow pull. I like to jump straight into the pool instead of wading in slowly.  Basically, it's my preference to get the unpleasantness over with as quickly as possible.  And let's face it.  Almost always, the non-conference schedule is some level of unpleasantness.  This portion of the schedule is not the reason that people buy season tickets.   In fact, griping about the non-conference schedule is somewhat of an annual ritual amongst Marquette fans.

Therefore, I found it weird (at best) that Marquette has insisted on releasing the schedule one game at a time.  Today's announcement is that Marquette is going to open up the season with...

CENTENARY!  YES!

I guess the logic is that we get an entire day to focus on each opponent. Maybe this gives each team on the schedule an opportunity for a further analysis. Perhaps Centenary gets their time in the sun. Who knows? Maybe the non-conference schedule is a treat to be savored slowly and enjoyed, instead of unpleasantness and pain.  Neat... their nickname is the Gents.

Or, we can find out that Centenary was 8-23 last season in the Summit League, with a Pomeroy Rating of 246. We could also do a little digging, and find out that their best Pomeroy Rating was back in 2004, at 181.  Since then, they've been 316, 317, 248, and 279. Instead of being a savory morsel, Centenary is truly just another bad team Marquette will play because the economics dictate it.  Now, for an entire day for two weeks, we get to focus on each portion of the non-conference schedule being bad.

I appreciate the desire of Marquette, or any organization, to experiment.  In general, their coverage is outstanding (like last year's video clips).  But a good chunk of the schedule is already out there in draft format on the Wiki.   Not to mention that Wisconsin has already posted their schedule (by the way, we play them on Dec. 12th).  We even provided more info a few weeks ago.  Why not just release the whole thing all at once?  Is there that much suspense to find out what Friday or Saturday in December we play Seattle?

Like a ritual of late summer, Marquette releases the non-conference schedule, and then the Internet breaks out with complaints.  It usually goes as follows:

• Defender - all major programs play some number of crap teams for non-conference schedules
  
• Season Ticket Holder - yeah, but I'm the one shelling out $XXXX(X?) to watch this junk
• Rinse and repeat as necessary.

One exception to griping was last year, when the comments weren't actually that bad.  I attribute this mostly because MU had added another tough opponent in NC State.  That was a surprise last year but isn't this year.  Plus, the schedule was released and then we moved on.  Now, get ready for a solid two weeks (at least) of replaying the above complaints about the non-conference schedule.  Maybe tomorrow we can find out when MU plays Presbyterian.  Yay?

http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2009/07/marquette-wades-into-non-conference.html

[BrewCity83]

Centenaray's non-conference opponnents were a collective 229-184, and conference opponents by definition were .500.  

Umm...conference opponents aren't .500 since they all beat up on crappy Centenary.  Only if you include Centenary's record (or if Centenary itself happened to be .500 in-conference) will the conference record come out to .500.

[Marquette84]

Umm...conference opponents aren't .500 since they all beat up on crappy Centenary.  Only if you include Centenary's record (or if Centenary itself happened to be .500 in-conference) will the conference record come out to .500.

Good point. 

This means Centenary's in-conference opponents will actually be over .500. as well.

It reinforces the point that there is no way that our opponent's opponents record will go down when you factor in Centenary, since their opponents' record in both conference and non-conference were both over .500.

[ChuckyChip]

The issue isn't the incremental impact of one game against Centenary, but the cumulative impact of playing Centenary, Md Eastern Shore, Seattle, UWM, Prysbaterian, etc.  I know all about the ecomonics of the situation, so I don't need the lecture - just making a point.

First remember that home wins (or losses) only count at .6 in the RPI calculation.  So a home heavy schedule, especially against weak opponents, can bring down the RPI.

MU also was helped by a strong BE last year which boosted our SOS.  According to Ken Pomoroy our overall SOS last year was 45, but our non-conference SOS was 163 - the lowest among Pomoroy's top 20 teams.

Now with the BE being (relatively) down this year, plus our mirror games against weaker opponents, we won't have the conference schedule to bring up our SOS like last year.  Therefore the impact of a soft pre-conference schedule will probably be greater this year.

BTW - Md Eastern Shore was rated 341 out of 344 in the Pomoroy ratings last year 

[JTBMU7]

seeing as how there have been 20 posts about how playing centenary will affect our RPI, i'm pretty sure i can see where MU was going with the "one game at a time" thing...

[GOMU1104]

The issue isn't the incremental impact of one game against Centenary, but the cumulative impact of playing Centenary, Md Eastern Shore, Seattle, UWM, Prysbaterian, etc.  I know all about the ecomonics of the situation, so I don't need the lecture - just making a point.

First remember that home wins (or losses) only count at .6 in the RPI calculation.  So a home heavy schedule, especially against weak opponents, can bring down the RPI.

MU also was helped by a strong BE last year which boosted our SOS.  According to Ken Pomoroy our overall SOS last year was 45, but our non-conference SOS was 163 - the lowest among Pomoroy's top 20 teams.

Now with the BE being (relatively) down this year, plus our mirror games against weaker opponents, we won't have the conference schedule to bring up our SOS like last year.  Therefore the impact of a soft pre-conference schedule will probably be greater this year.

BTW - Md Eastern Shore was rated 341 out of 344 in the Pomoroy ratings last year 

Again, its all about the Benjamins...

I will trust the people that are paid to do this.

People are taking this stuff way to seriously. Look at Florida, when they won their National Championships.
2006-06 - Non Con RPI=196
2006-07 - Non Con RPI = 145

@ UW
vs. NC State
vs. St. Bonaventure (rumored)
Old Spice Invite (Where we will play 3 very good teams...unless we play Iona)

I am happy with that schedule...
 

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

With NC State, St. Bonnies and a local interest game like UWM on the schedule, I'm not complaining. And I didn't complain last year.

Releasing it one game at a time is a bad idea, however.

[ChuckyChip]

Again, its all about the Benjamins...

I will trust the people that are paid to do this.

People are taking this stuff way to seriously. Look at Florida, when they won their National Championships.
2006-06 - Non Con RPI=196
2006-07 - Non Con RPI = 145

@ UW
vs. NC State
vs. St. Bonaventure (rumored)
Old Spice Invite (Where we will play 3 very good teams...unless we play Iona)

I am happy with that schedule...
 

I'm not complaining about the schedule either (at least not too much).

I guess my point is that SOS may be more of a factor this year than in the previous few.  Your example of Florida is perfect - their non-conference SOS was irrelevant because they had a resume that easily go them into the tournament, just as MU a has been a solid tourney team the past three years.

This year, however, it's possible that we might be more of a bubble team, and if/when the selection committe looks at our schedule and sees (potentially) only one non-conference road game, and a home slate filled with cupcakes, it might work against us.

My hope is that they surprise us all and add another home-and-home series for this season (with MU playing on the road this year).

[GOMU1104]

I'm not complaining about the schedule either (at least not too much).

I guess my point is that SOS may be more of a factor this year than in the previous few.  Your example of Florida is perfect - their non-conference SOS was irrelevant because they had a resume that easily go them into the tournament, just as MU a has been a solid tourney team the past three years.

This year, however, it's possible that we might be more of a bubble team, and if/when the selection committe looks at our schedule and sees (potentially) only one non-conference road game, and a home slate filled with cupcakes, it might work against us.

My hope is that they surprise us all and add another home-and-home series for this season (with MU playing on the road this year).

You also have to pad the win totals. Losing against good teams means nothing.

It is unlikely they start a series on the road, in a year which they already play UW on the road. The time to start a new home and home series is years where we have UW at home...like last year vs. NCST.

[jmayer1]

With NC State, St. Bonnies and a local interest game like UWM on the schedule, I'm not complaining. And I didn't complain last year.

Releasing it one game at a time is a bad idea, however.

I agree, I have no problem as long as there is always at least one road game (NC State last year, UW every other year) and they are playing in the preseason tourneys as well.  If they start to have some seasons with no true road games (even if it is against a bcs bottom feeder) or stop playing in preseason tournaments, then I'll start to worry a bit.  The buy games are what they are, but it would be nice if they could at least look to schedule some teams in the low 100's instead of the low 200's and 300's but I guess you can't always forsee the ratings, especially if you're scheduling a few years out.

Releasing the schedule one game at a time is kind of goofy but I can see their point in trying to get people to talk about the games individually that they probably wouldn't have otherwise.

[Skatastrophy]

If MU is trying to drive traffic to their website they should try releasing some interesting content with some analysis instead of just press releases.  If they added some commenting functionality to the bottom of each article they might trick people into thinking the website was designed in the last 5 years as well.

I mean, it takes 2 seconds to add a widget to a web page that will allow any reader to post that article to Digg, Reddit, facebook, google bookmarks, et cetera from addthis.com.  That's the smallest amount of effort possible to take an older website and make it easy for anyone that takes interest in said site to post it for all of their friends to read.

There are a number of ways to drive traffic to a site.  Playing silly games with releasing information slowly may drive a little traffic, but is it really worth it to irk your fans?  (That's an honest question, not me condemning their decision).

[kmwtrucks]

Figuring we are going to add another Road game next year who would we like to see on the schedule?  How about one of the Texas schools (Texas, A&M, Baylor or Texas Tech)?  

[Big Papi]

The buy games are what they are, but it would be nice if they could at least look to schedule some teams in the low 100's instead of the low 200's and 300's but I guess you can't always forsee the ratings, especially if you're scheduling a few years out.

I read an article last year about what all goes into putting together a schedule and its not easy.  I think everyone would love to have all of our buy games be games with teams of 200 rpi or better.  Problem is those are the teams that want more money and have higher demands for getting a home game in return.  We did that with UWM, we are not going to do that for Cleveland St, UW-GB or anyone else with that type of talent level. 

I really think it is what it is.  If we had another sport that generated a ton of revenue, we might have more flexibility with our schedule but at this point in time, we don't.  But hey, maybe with the Wave being no more, season tickets for MU soccer might sky rocket and we can evenutally squeeze that money that TC pledged to a new soccer stadium (that has been tabled for now).   

[T-Bone]

Grambling.
One less than Maryland Eastern Shore according to Pomeroy.  They did beat Texas Southern.

[PuertoRicanNightmare]

Grambling? Or Grumbling?