For Those Who Wrote Cadougan Off: You Know Who You Are

[mu-rara]

Agreed. Tony was an all-timer. He did not need to score--he was a great ball distributor. MU has had some great point guards throughout its history. From memory:
Dick Nixon
Butch Lee
Lloyd Walton
Sam Worthen
Mandy Johnson
Tony Miller
Cordell Henry, and some I probably have forgotten

Butch was a 2 guard.  Jimmy Boylan was point.  Otherwise I agree on your sentiment and list.

[NersEllenson]

His play so far is mostly God given talent.  He is basically an advanced freshman.  His defense has improved tremendously.  He runs the break better than any other guard on the team.  His ability to find the open person is incredible. 

He needs development but has a lot of upside.  He'll be a Cousy finalist as a senior.  With Buzz pushing him, he could be better than Tony Miller.  We all know what an offensive juggernaut Miller was in first two years.

I'd say this is a MAJOR, MAJOR stretch.  I'm all for being optimistic, but Junior has a LONG way to go to get to the level of a Cousy finalist or even a Tony Miller. 

[Lennys Tap]

Agreed. Tony was an all-timer. He did not need to score--he was a great ball distributor. MU has had some great point guards throughout its history. From memory:
Dick Nixon
Butch Lee
Lloyd Walton
Sam Worthen
Mandy Johnson
Tony Miller
Cordell Henry, and some I probably have forgotten

The best of them all was Dean Meminger.

[GGGG]

Good grief...better than Tony Miller?

I think Junior will be a solid point guard when all is said and done, but do you know how good Miller was???

[mu-rara]

Good grief...better than Tony Miller?

I think Junior will be a solid point guard when all is said and done, but do you know how good Miller was???

I have said in previous posts that Miller is the best pure (traditional ??) point guard from MU, and he had many of the same shortcomings as a freshman.  Miller as a freshman and Miller as a senior were miles apart.

[dsfire]

>> But he is 2nd to last in the BE in Turnover Rate (33.0%) for those playing 40% of the minutes or more--97 players qualified on the list (Jae leads the BE, btw).
http://kenpom.com/playerstats.php?s=TORate&y=2011&f=BE

TORate is just a wildly biased stat based upon play style.  Junior being so low on that list says more about how often he shoots it than it does about how often he turns it over - in fact, all three of those guys at the bottom of the list with >30% TORate take less than 10% of their team's shots and 15% of their team's possessions while on the floor.

Agree on the rest.

[Mutaman]

The best of them all was Dean Meminger.

Bingo! And its not even close.

[4everwarriors]

Bingo! And its not even close.

I'm down with that.

[ZiggysFryBoy]

I wrote off Junior Cadugan on my taxes last year and got some money back from uncle sam.

[brewcity77]

I've seen numerous NBA caliber moves from Dwight this year...and actually think he has a chance to get drafted  -assuming he keeps up the play he's shown the last 6-8 games.

I've been hesitant to say so, but I'm glad to see someone say it because I've been thinking the same thing of late. If you take out the Rutgers game where he barely played, he's averaging 14.5 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in his past 6 games. During that stretch he's also shooting 59% from 3-point range. And that's as we get into BEast play where the competition should be tougher.

He has a few moves, gets to the rack well, is reliable from the free throw line, could sub at the 1 or 2, and whatever people want to say about his shot from distance, it just keeps falling. He's certainly a fringe NBA prospect at this point, but that's more than I would have said about him before the season started. Right now, I would not be shocked to see him either drafted or catching on as a rookie free agent.

Agreed. Tony was an all-timer. He did not need to score--he was a great ball distributor. MU has had some great point guards throughout its history. From memory:
Dick Nixon
Butch Lee
Lloyd Walton
Sam Worthen
Mandy Johnson
Tony Miller
Cordell Henry, and some I probably have forgotten

There's also Travis Diener. He scored more than the average point, but put up over 5 assists/game in his career (7 as a senior) and maintained a pretty consistent A/T ratio of around 3/1. Certainly one of the top point guards we have ever had.

I was also a big fan of Cordell Henry, who often seems to get forgotten among the other guys he played with.

[dsfire]

I wrote off Junior Cadugan on my taxes last year and got some money back from uncle sam.

Was it Canadian money, though?

[4everwarriors]

I wrote off Junior Cadugan on my taxes last year and got some money back from uncle sam.

So, you're tight with his mother?

[Dr. Blackheart]

TORate is just a wildly biased stat based upon play style.  Junior being so low on that list says more about how often he shoots it than it does about how often he turns it over - in fact, all three of those guys at the bottom of the list with >30% TORate take less than 10% of their team's shots and 15% of their team's possessions while on the floor.

Agree on the rest.

Dean Oliver weighs turnover rate as 2nd most important of the four factors he tracks that determine outcomes of games next to eFG.  It is a tempo neutral statistic that therefore accounts for style of play for comparison sake across teams and players. So, I am not quite getting your argument here.  A PG with a high turnover rate, especially a distributor, is not a good combination--glad to see Junior improving in BE play.

Being assumptive here, perhaps you are arguing that a personal TO Rate is not a fair measure for someone like Junior as he passes a ball to, let's say an Otule, with the pass being turned over as Otule doesn't have the hands to grab it--so Junior gets credit for the TO. A good PG should know this and be able to put the ball in the receivers hands where he can do something with it without turning it over (as we know he already does as he has a good assist %). I will argue his lack of shooting ability leads to his hesitancy to shoot, which limits his game and play making ability as defenses sag on him to limit what he does well: passing.  So, as the shot clock winds down, he forces passes for turnovers, bad shots or a shot clock violation. Junior is also a very high dribbler and teams have been pressuring his loose handle if you notice. Again, with his play, I can argue this indeed is a very reflective and accurate statistic as does Oliver who studied this deeply.

Article on this if you want:

http://www.dailythunder.com/modern-stats/

[dsfire]

Was absolutely arguing against personal TORate and not the team statistic.  My point is simply that there isn't always a direct connection between the activities where you risk turning the ball over and those that terminate a possession.  Pomeroy even lists his definition of personal TORate as:

Turnover Rate (TORate): This is the percentage of personal possessions used on turnovers. It can be highly dependent on context.  Players that do little passing or dribbling (i.e. spot-up shooters) will have an artificially deflated TO%.

Cadougan is just the opposite of the spot-up shooter.  If he started launching 3s, his TORate would decrease even though his ORtg would presumably drop (assuming poor shooting).

[mu-rara]

The best of them all was Dean Meminger.

Never saw Dean play.  I understand how good he was.  I don't compare him to Junior or Miller because he was a great scoring option on his teams, as was Diener.  I don't see him being the same kind of point guard as JC will be or TM was.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Was absolutely arguing against personal TORate and not the team statistic.  My point is simply that there isn't always a direct connection between the activities where you risk turning the ball over and those that terminate a possession.  Pomeroy even lists his definition of personal TORate as:
Cadougan is just the opposite of the spot-up shooter.  If he started launching 3s, his TORate would decrease even though his ORtg would presumably drop (assuming poor shooting).

But if he was launching all the time, his value (assist rate) would shrink considerably--which is why I said he is feast or famine.  Kemba Walker has a similar assist % as Junior, launches mercilessly, but has a 11% turnover rate. While I agree a TO Rate is less important for a forward or center or even a shooter, I will argue it is extremely important for a PG who is a distributor and has the ball in his hands a good portion of the time.  Junior also has a 92 ORtating, way lowest of the regulars and below the average player of 100.

Anyway...interesting discussion...but I am glad he is progressing...but he is still a good back-up PG.

[dsfire]

But if he was launching all the time, his value (assist rate) would shrink considerably--which is why I said he is feast or famine.  Kemba Walker has a similar assist % as Junior, launches mercilessly, but has a 11% turnover rate. While I agree a TO Rate is less important for a forward or center or even a shooter, I will argue it is extremely important for a PG who is a distributor and has the ball in his hands a good portion of the time.  Junior also has a 92 ORtating, way lowest of the regulars and below the average player of 100.

Anyway...interesting discussion...but I am glad he is progressing...but he is still a good back-up PG.

But the denominator on assist rate is FGs made by teammates while he's on the court, so that would only go down if he would've otherwise gotten an assist.  If he takes a shot on a possession that would've otherwise ended with one of his teammates making a shot where he didn't have an assist, his Assist% would actually go up.

Walker's drop in TORate has been really impressive given how much he's handling the ball and how much he was turning it over his first couple years, but it also sort of proves my point.  It's not that Junior is 3x more likely to turn the ball over while handling it, but that he's three times more likely to terminate a possession with a turnover because he almost never ends a possession with a shot, while Kemba takes more of his team's shots than any other player at a major school.

[MUSF]

Let's remember that Junior is essentially a freshmen developmentally.  I look at this as his first year and I am very pleased with his performance as a newcomer.  They say most players make the biggest jump from the first to second year.  Hopefully we see that from Junior next year.

[Dr. Blackheart]

But the denominator on assist rate is FGs made by teammates while he's on the court, so that would only go down if he would've otherwise gotten an assist.  If he takes a shot on a possession that would've otherwise ended with one of his teammates making a shot where he didn't have an assist, his Assist% would actually go up.

Walker's drop in TORate has been really impressive given how much he's handling the ball and how much he was turning it over his first couple years, but it also sort of proves my point.  It's not that Junior is 3x more likely to turn the ball over while handling it, but that he's three times more likely to terminate a possession with a turnover because he almost never ends a possession with a shot, while Kemba takes more of his team's shots than any other player at a major school.

True but my premise is also true if Junior is shooting, which at his rate, is the weakest part of his game.  For example, if he assists on 4 of 10 MU FGM now, if he is shooting as he is now, that assist would drop to 3 and the FGM would drop to 9--so 40% vs. 33%.  My (convoluted perhaps) argument was to show why Buycks is the better option now vs. Junior--same assist rate, lower TO Rate and a great eFG%.  Junior's scoring game hurts both his PG stats and his practical game effectiveness as defenses sag--which limits his strength and spacing to operate. If he could occasionally hit a trey, defenses would have to respect him which would open up his distributor effectiveness for higher % shots.  

Walker is amazing-- definitely POY in BE, although you could say Buycks has improved across the board as well. I am surprised with the jumps of both. Also, nice to see Junior doing the same...he has to work on his J, though, to hit the next level some of us see in him.

Great stuff, thanks.

[dsfire]

I agree with pretty much all of that.

Based upon what we've seen so far, I think we're probably going to see more drives to the hoop from Junior before his jump shot comes around.  And while he can be an effective scorer and distributor doing that, we certainly would be better off if he could hit 3s at even a 35% clip.  But who knows, seems like a number of guys have developed/vastly improved jump shots between seasons recently.

[warthog-driver]

Agreed. Tony was an all-timer. He did not need to score--he was a great ball distributor. MU has had some great point guards throughout its history. From memory:
Dick Nixon
Butch Lee
Lloyd Walton
Sam Worthen
Mandy Johnson
Tony Miller
Cordell Henry, and some I probably have forgotten

You forgot two of the very best - Dean the Dream and Marcus Washington

[ecompt]

Dean's outside shot was nothing to gush about. Neither was Washington's. All Junior has to do is hit one three a game and it will open his game up tremendously.

[willie warrior]

You forgot two of the very best - Dean the Dream and Marcus Washington

I forgot several: Travis Diener and of course Dean--I am not sure Dean was a PG. Also, Dominic james. Likely another was Tony Smith: he pretty much acted like a PG as he handled the ball most of the time. I would not put Marcus up as high as some of the others.

Point is , of course, we have been blessed with some good ones from the above.

[Lighthouse 84]

Don't forget Tony Smith.   I know he wasn't a true point, but he got thrown in at the point because the Warriors had no one else to play it.  Two words for him.  Out Standing.

[Marquette84]

I have said in previous posts that Miller is the best pure (traditional ??) point guard from MU, and he had many of the same shortcomings as a freshman.  Miller as a freshman and Miller as a senior were miles apart.

I think time may have blurred your memory. 

Go back and refresh your memory with this view of Miller's 4-year stats.
http://wiki.muscoop.com/doku.php/men_s_basketball/tony_miller

Amal McCaskill as a freshman was miles apart from McCaskill as a senior.

Tony Miller came in and delivered consistent Senior-level performance from day one.  There weren't "miles" of difference because he arrived a complete player.