Scholarship table
I was thinking about herd immunity from a math perspective.We're at 470k cases in the US. Let's say the real count is 10x that, so we're at 4.7m. That means a whopping 1.4% of the US's 330m population has been infected. The last week or so, we're getting 30k positive cases per day, so let's say that's really undercounted by 10x, so 300k per day.The lowest herd immunity %age I could find that was helpful is 40%. Even at 300k new cases per day, it would take 1100 days (3+ YEARS) to reach even 40% herd immunity. Even if my numbers are off by a factor of 2, we're a loonnnnng way off. And 40% is super low anyhow, it might take 80% or 95%.And that's only if you stay at 300k per day. The case rate is likely steady/dropping over the next few weeks.That leaves immunity thru vaccines as the best possibility.
Yuck. My hope is a cheap, effective, test that people can perform on themselves at home... and that results are conclusive in minutes. Ideally, delivered my USPS or distributed at any government building (for those without addresses). Something like this could throw a ton of water on the fire. If someone tests positive there could be a small "colony" (think TB or leprosy sanatorium) in each county (or whatever makes sense) that cares for those who are ill. Specialized, isolated, and loaded with all the PPE and equipment that is required. If positive, you go and stay there until you've recovered and tested negative.I realize that something like this completely ignores the asymptomatic positive people. But, it gives us something. It frees up hospital space so that they can go back to more normal operations. Daily testing for each person identifies potential hotspots or outbreaks early. I'm sure there could be tech use, and mathematical algorithms that could be created to trace back potentially infected people... who would then quarantine at home until they've tested negative for a predetermined time period... unless positive, then they go on "vacation". These folks would be excused from work, and be immediately placed on unemployment until they are cleared. Anyone they've come into contact with (using GPS logs on phones) could be notified via text message. I know this would be a LOT "big brothery" for most people, myself included. This is what South Korea has done, and it has been effective.Just throwing out ideas here. Ways to get closer to normal, but with precautions. Someone smarter than me can probably come up with much better plans, or poke holes in this brain storm. But, as I've said since early February, the best way back is massive, cheap, fast testing.As a society, life changes, obviously.
I think that in the next few weeks that a few treatments are going to be identified that will reduce mortality down to 1-2% of cases that require hospitalization. When that threshold is met, I think that society will collectively say f it and start the long journey back to a semblance of the old normal. I think a vaccine will be fast tracked and be available this fall with your flu shot.
I'm on a similar track as you, but not as optimistic. I think it is 2 months out, and that treatment will be convalescent plasma. Which wouldn't be scaleable enough for huge caseloads that would emerge if we went back to something like normal. I think the something like normal is 4-months out. Where either we have had enough infected that we have pretty good reserves of plasma. Or some of the scaleable versions of plasma are available.
Returning to "normal" will happen in stages...It could look something like this....-People verified to be immune with some sort of badge or passport that allows them to resume daily activities (requires antibody testing). -People able to return to workplaces sometime in June, with proper precautions (temperature scanning, rapid testing, antibody testing, etc.)-Sporting events without fans, or with very limited fans, sometime this summer. -Restaurants in July or August, with new precautions for number of people in a given space, extra cleaning, etc.The very last thing to resume is going to be major events with large crowds, such as concerts, sporting events with fans, festivals, theater, etc. That might not happen until we have a vaccine, which is 2021.
My fire department received a gift of face masks like the ones you describe. We are currently under orders to wear them whenever we leave the station in non emergency situations, like trips to the store. Saving our dust masks, face shields and N95S for alarms.Very stylish.
Unfortunately essentially useless for close contact. I wont even go into the sealing portion of it (nonexistent) but even ineffective as a droplet catcher.
Here's some text on possible ways to open:https://www.vox.com/2020/4/10/21215494/coronavirus-plans-social-distancing-economy-recession-depression-unemploymentIn conclusion, 22m tests PER DAY, raise hospital capacity, we're in this for at least a year, get a vaccine asap.
Oh, I know. Out chief is big on symbols and thinks it is important that we are seen as taking it seriously. I roll my eyes as I do it because I view it as nothing but a symbolic face cover. As far as breathing through these home made masks, they fog my glasses until I lower the nose to a point that they lose most of their nearly non-existent effectiveness.
Tower pretty much sums it up. My girlfriend went out with a scarf on the other day to protect herself. I was giggling.
I am sure you are still surprisingly attractive.
What makes people think he knows how to manage and cure this disease?