NFL Thread 2019-2020

[MU82]

Charlotte Observer article about the Chargers giving the Panthers a "blueprint" for winning at GB this week:

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article236983259.html?

Cliff Notes: run the ball; pressure AR; play mistake-free.

All might be easier said than done for the Panthers. For example, although the Panthers get after QBs fairly well, they often have to blitz to do it.

I'm expecting a loss, hoping I'm wrong.

[MUBBau]

The blueprint is out there on how to beat the Patriots.

[Pakuni]

The blueprint is out there on how to beat the Patriots.

Yep. Just go get yourself a Lamar Jackson.

[wadesworld]

Charlotte Observer article about the Chargers giving the Panthers a "blueprint" for winning at GB this week:

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/sports/nfl/carolina-panthers/article236983259.html?

Cliff Notes: run the ball; pressure AR; play mistake-free.

All might be easier said than done for the Panthers. For example, although the Panthers get after QBs fairly well, they often have to blitz to do it.

I'm expecting a loss, hoping I'm wrong.

Yeah it's a very clear blueprint.  It basically comes down to: play man and blitz everyone, and have competent quarterback play.  If Rivera is smart enough to keep the ball out of Allen's hands they'll give the Packers fits.  Nagy, Zimmer, Garret put the ball in their below average quarterbacks' hands and that's the only way the Packers can stop teams.  If Rivera is half way competent he'll continue to run McCaffrey into the ground.

[BM1090]

Certainly sounds like the Packers spent a little too much time enjoying LA.

[JWags85]

Certainly sounds like the Packers spent a little too much time enjoying LA.

Afternoon game against a seemingly inferior opponent in LA is a recipe for disaster.  There has been a joke about "LA nightlife" the last few years with the Lakers being down that betting against the road team for Sunday games, especially 2H, was a solid strategy cause the performances were limp at best.  Its one thing to get up for the Showtime Lakers or the current Rams, but a mid level team with an off day in LA?  Bottle flu for sure.

The blueprint is out there on how to beat the Patriots.

People were trying to deny or downplay it, but the Pats opponent record coming into the game was 18-47.  Their "best" win was the Bills who are 6-2 and 5 of their 6 wins are against teams with 2 or fewer wins.  So its really 12-45 plus a team who feasted on the same cupcakes and played the final 3rd of their game with their backup QB.  Of course the Pats are a good, probably very good, team.  But their "historic" defense played historically terrible offenses and they got promptly thumped by a legit playoff team.

As for the Bears, I hope Pace is motivated to move decisively later in the year out of both self preservation and protection of what legacy he could have left.  Looking at the remaining schedule, I only see 3 more possible wins, and that would mean sweeping Detroit which I doubt.  Nagy lost the locker room and that makes me less inclined to expect a surprise win powered by the defense.

[BM1090]

Afternoon game against a seemingly inferior opponent in LA is a recipe for disaster.  There has been a joke about "LA nightlife" the last few years with the Lakers being down that betting against the road team for Sunday games, especially 2H, was a solid strategy cause the performances were limp at best.  Its one thing to get up for the Showtime Lakers or the current Rams, but a mid level team with an off day in LA?  Bottle flu for sure.

Yup. I'm an avid NBA follower and that includes NBA Twitter. I know all about the LA nightlife trends. For whatever reason, I didn't think it was prominent in football.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Yup. I'm an avid NBA follower and that includes NBA Twitter. I know all about the LA nightlife trends. For whatever reason, I didn't think it was prominent in football.

Going out 48 hours in advance was not a wise decision.

[Jockey]

People were trying to deny or downplay it, but the Pats opponent record coming into the game was 18-47.  Their "best" win was the Bills who are 6-2 and 5 of their 6 wins are against teams with 2 or fewer wins.  So its really 12-45 plus a team who feasted on the same cupcakes and played the final 3rd of their game with their backup QB.  Of course the Pats are a good, probably very good, team.  But their "historic" defense played historically terrible offenses and they got promptly thumped by a legit playoff team.

As for the Bears, I hope Pace is motivated to move decisively later in the year out of both self preservation and protection of what legacy he could have left.  Looking at the remaining schedule, I only see 3 more possible wins, and that would mean sweeping Detroit which I doubt.  Nagy lost the locker room and that makes me less inclined to expect a surprise win powered by the defense.

Agree completely with the 1st paragraph.

I only differ on the 2nd in that Pace is as much of the problem as Nagy and Mitch. His 1st rounders are Kevin White, Floyd, Trubisky and Roquan. I believe all were top 10 picks. Not even one difference maker. 2nd rounders are Goldman, Whitehair, Shaheen, and Daniels. That would be an OK group - if they were 3rd / 4th rounders.

[jesmu84]

Agree completely with the 1st paragraph.

I only differ on the 2nd in that Pace is as much of the problem as Nagy and Mitch. His 1st rounders are Kevin White, Floyd, Trubisky and Roquan. I believe all were top 10 picks. Not even one difference maker. 2nd rounders are Goldman, Whitehair, Shaheen, and Daniels. That would be an OK group - if they were 3rd / 4th rounders.

https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/comments/dpbxbn/oc_4year_draft_analysis_ryan_pace/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

[Jockey]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CHIBears/comments/dpbxbn/oc_4year_draft_analysis_ryan_pace/?utm_medium=android_app&utm_source=share

"Trubs was drafted #2 and ranks #8 in AV for the 2017 draft class. Overdrafted by 6 picks,"

Kinda makes me question his methodology.

[jesmu84]

"Trubs was drafted #2 and ranks #8 in AV for the 2017 draft class. Overdrafted by 6 picks,"

Kinda makes me question his methodology.

AV is not "his" methodology. And you clearly didn't read the literal next paragraph.

Regardless, a GM ability to assess/draft talent isn't based on one pick.

Pace is above average thus far. He's been fine.

[Pakuni]

AV is not "his" methodology. And you clearly didn't read the literal next paragraph.

Regardless, a GM ability to assess/draft talent isn't based on one pick.

Pace is above average thus far. He's been fine.

As much as I respect PFR's effort to quantify player value, AV has some significant flaws, by their own admission. It gives individual players value for team success, meaning a guy like Leonard Floyd scores higher simply for sharing the field with Khalil Mack and Eddie Jackson, regardless of his actual value. It values stat accumulation and games played without context. (Like, even a bad inside linebacker is going to accumulate tackles if given the snaps). It doesn't seem to account for negative plays, like penalties, sacks allowed, missed tackles, fumbles, drops, interceptions.
It's interesting, but I'm not sure it's all that valuable. Pro Football Focus grades, while not without flaws of  their own, are far more comprehensive.

Ultimately, that reddit poster strikes me as someone who wanted to defend Pace's drafting and concocted a formula to do it (not AV, but his methodology for deeming who's a bust and who's a gem, etc.) He also chooses to ignore relative pick values (missing on a top 10 pick is far more significant than missing in a 5th rounder) and missed opportunities, i.e. choosing Trubisky meant not choosing Watson or Mahomes, choosing White meant not choosing Gurley or Andrus Peat, choosing Floyd meant not choosing Sheldon Rankins or Laremy Tunsil.
And, of course, he complete;ly ignores the value of the picks that were given up to make some of these acquisitions.

At the end of the day, when you make four consecutive top 10 picks and don't turn a single one of them into an impact player (maybe still hope for Roquan?), you're not doing an "average" job of drafting, much less above average.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Pace may be “fine” overall, but when you miss that badly on a quarterback, it doesn’t really matter.

[jsglow]

Pace may be “fine” overall, but when you miss that badly on a quarterback, it doesn’t really matter.

Word.

[MU82]

Pace may be “fine” overall, but when you miss that badly on a quarterback, it doesn’t really matter.

Yep. As a few of us discussed a coupla pages back, one of the best ways to derail a franchise is to miss badly on a top-3-pick QB ... and that goes double when you trade up to get him.

The wasted capital -- the draft pick used and the additional picks traded -- is bad enough. You spend so much time and energy scouting him and then of course trying to develop him that to miss badly is a crusher. And when you have a championship-ready defense, as the Bears had last season and figured to have this season, but your offense can't get out of its own way, it makes it seem even worse.

Finally, there is the emotional side of it. It is super frustrating to players who feel they are doing their jobs only to see their QB suck. He is supposed to be the leader, a team's rock. When instead he is the Achilles' heel, it can be psychologically devastating for a franchise.

As was the case for most of you Chicagoans, I was there for three first-round QBs -- Mirer, McNown and Grossman -- and each failure sucked wind out of the franchise. McNown was the worst because not only did he blow as a QB but he was a me-first d-bag who quickly became a cancer. Rex was quite popular with his teammates, and he had the most talent of the three, but he simply couldn't sustain any of the little bit of success he had. Mirer was a trainwreck who was victimized by not-great teammates and cruddy coaching as well as his own limitations. The Bears absolutely hated playing behind McNown, and even though Jauron was a lousy coach, I always felt sorry for him that he got stuck with that albatross.

Each of those QB decisions set the Bears back several years, and the same could happen with this one.

Let's not forget that Pace (and Nagy) also badly bungled the team's kicking situation.

[Pakuni]

Chargers on the move again?
The Athletic is reporting that the NFL is talking about moving the Chargers to London (where they may have more fans than in LA).

[muwarrior69]

Well my doctor has ordered me to stop watching New York Midgets (formerly Giants) games and to keep away from watching the New York Sopwith Camels (formerly Jets) as well, since my blood pressure has gone through the roof.

My apologies to all the Midgets out there as they could probably play much better, and the Sopwith Camel which was one hell of a fighting aircraft in WWI.

[Cheeks]

Chargers on the move again?
The Athletic is reporting that the NFL is talking about moving the Chargers to London (where they may have more fans than in LA).

They cannot sell tickets to the new stadium if their life depended on it.  The Chargers fans had the gall to say no public money for a new stadium when there were many more important issues in San Diego to deal with.  Been a screwup situation since the get go. What a shame for San Diegoans if this happens...the ultimate kick.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Chargers on the move again?
The Athletic is reporting that the NFL is talking about moving the Chargers to London (where they may have more fans than in LA).

And it looks like London may only be one alternative being considered.  Including St. Louis.

Should have never left San Diego.  A new stadium would have happened eventually there.

[jsglow]

And it looks like London may only be one alternative being considered.  Including St. Louis.

Should have never left San Diego.  A new stadium would have happened eventually there.

They SHOULD have taken the Vegas deal and let the Raiders twist in the wind.

[Pakuni]

They SHOULD have taken the Vegas deal and let the Raiders twist in the wind.

I don't think the Vegas deal was ever offered to the Chargers. That whole thing was put together by the Raiders and Sheldon Adelson.
And if the NFL allowed the Raiders to move the LA instead if the Chargers, they'd be the most popular NFL team in that city right now.

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/31/sports/los-angeles-raiders-rams-fans-national-football-league.html
https://www.latimes.com/sports/rams/la-sp-rams-raiders-hernandez-20180818-story.html

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

My recollection was that there were two stadium proposals.  One would have involved the Chargers and Raiders sharing a site in Carson.  The other was the Rams in Inglewood.  They went with the Rams site, and invited the Chargers with the Raiders next on the list.  The Chargers said "yes," to some people's surprise.  That's what lead to the process that eventually got the Raiders to Vegas.

BTW, moving the Chargers to LA to share the Rams site was the "brainchild" of Jerry Jones.

[MU82]

It's always an interesting discussion when it comes to public money going toward stadiums.

On the one hand, it's never easy to justify giving hundreds of millions of dollars (or more) toward a stadium or arena for a team owned by a billionaire. There isn't a single city in which those funds wouldn't have been more useful elsewhere.

On the other hand, it's simply the way the game is played now. With very few exceptions (and there have been a few, thankfully), if you want to keep your team, you have to play ball with the billionaire. So you have to decide, "Do we want to be a 'major-league city' or not?" If you decide to let the team go, that's OK, that's your decision, but will you regret it forever? If you decide that the team is a major part of your city's "psyche" or "worth," then you'll have to play the game and pony up.

When I was in Minneapolis, the owner of the North Stars wanted a few million dollars to connect Met Center to the new Mall of America. The state and city of Bloomington told him no, so he moved the team to Dallas. And a few years later, the state paid up big-time to bring an expansion team to St. Paul. So they sure showed that North Stars' owner, who became even richer in Dallas.

Sometimes a city (or state) doesn't realize how important a franchise is until it's gone. But it's certainly understandable to not want to hand zillions to a zillionaire. We might be facing the same difficult choice here with the Panthers within a few short years.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

You are correct 82.  I just don't like when they talk about stadiums generating economic activity as justification.  Sure Fiserv has been nice for its neighborhood, but its taken business away from Water Street.  Plus people are just taking dollars they would have spent in Brookfield, New Berlin, etc. and moved it elsewhere.

The way I view it is that, if a city, county or state *want* a stadium, then build it!  Don't attempt to justify why through phony economic studies.  Just do it and enjoy it.