Will Noel's Injury Change NBA Rules?

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Why not an MLB-type system that allows a player to sign out of high school, but if he chooses college instead, he's ineligible to be drafted for three seasons or after his 21st birthday, whichever comes first?

This would:
- prevent kids from facing an either/or situation. They'll find out their worth to the pros without having to abandon the college route. And the kids who have no interest in college, and probably don't belong in college, won't be forced into college.
- provide stability and improve quality in the college game. If a kid shows up on campus, you know you've got him for at least three seasons. Though Kentucky has had success with the one and done model, I imagine even Calipari hates having to rebuild his roster on annually.
- force the NBA to create a real farm system to develop talent, and allow them to develop talent without the pressure to play the kids who aren't ready

-


 

I think your plan would work, but why would the NBA do that?

If I was the NBA, I would just make the rule 2 years and keep letting college hoops be the infrastructure for my minor league.

Why would the NBA want to invest a bunch more time and money into an infrastructure they currently have for free?

Morality?

[Lennys Tap]

As an avid Bulls and NBA fan, I believe this rule was necessary to keep it's fans and protect it's product.  Countless veteran players were being dropped from rosters to make room for immature HS projects.  No one wants to pay for pricey tickets to wait around for the kid to develop while hurting the team short term (turnovers) and long term (after the 3 year rookie contract runs out and he leaves). Not to mention the amount of kids who didn't develop and took salary cap space. I for one am happy that the rule is in place.  Obviously every rule has in intended consequences. But the good outweighs the bad (from the NBA's point of view).  But if you care less about the NBA, and only of the NCAA product, I wouldn't like the rule either.  NBA D League would be good place for a minor league system for the guys who don't want to go to college... But that debases the lottery draft again.

When you're running a business in a free country you weigh the risk/reward of the decisions you make and act accordingly. Make good decisions, you prosper. Poor ones, you fail. Now I get why the NBA doesn't want it to be a free country, but telling adults they're not allowed to play in the NBA because the people in charge would make foolish decisions and hurt their own product is unfair.

[4everwarriors]

 Noel could purchased an insurance policy to protect him in case of injury.

[MerrittsMustache]

I think your plan would work, but why would the NBA do that?

If I was the NBA, I would just make the rule 2 years and keep letting college hoops be the infrastructure for my minor league.

Why would the NBA want to invest a bunch more time and money into an infrastructure they currently have for free?

Morality?

The naive, simple answer: to create a better product at the highest level.

Bring in young players and develop them in YOUR system. Let them focus on basketball 24/7. Work with them on the areas where they need to improve and actually provide some semblance of teaching and guidance to help them become legit NBA players. Don't just hope that they learn from watching veterans while sitting on the bench.

That said, I completely understand what you're saying and, again, the "better product" notion is naive considering the NBA already has a free feeder league.

[Pakuni]

I think your plan would work, but why would the NBA do that?

If I was the NBA, I would just make the rule 2 years and keep letting college hoops be the infrastructure for my minor league.

Why would the NBA want to invest a bunch more time and money into an infrastructure they currently have for free?

Morality?

I can see a couple of benefits for the NBA:

- it lessens the need for them to draft solely on potential. The high schoolers you'll see them drafting early will be kids they're confident can play right away and have obvious NBA skills. Guys like LeBron, Rose, Dwight Howard, etc. Otherwise, they won't draft less-than sure things players who have options.

- It forces most players to develop for three years in college, giving NBA teams a better read on their abilities and allowing them to enter the league more "NBA-ready." It's been said here and elsewhere that the "one-year" rule is all about NBA teams not wanting to babysit high schoolers, but is a kid with one season of college really that much more prepared for the pros than a high schooler? Were Derrick Favors and Xavier Henry and Jrue Holiday and Byron Mullens more NBA-ready players because of they spent seven months in college?

Perhaps a better example would be an NHL model. You draft a kid when he's 18 and retain his rights even if he goes to college, for at least two years. In the case of college players, rights are retained for 30 days after they leave college.

[Hards Alumni]

When you're running a business in a free country you weigh the risk/reward of the decisions you make and act accordingly. Make good decisions, you prosper. Poor ones, you fail. Now I get why the NBA doesn't want it to be a free country, but telling adults they're not allowed to play in the NBA because the people in charge would make foolish decisions and hurt their own product is unfair.

Unless you are a bank. 

[warriorchick]

Noel could purchased an insurance policy to protect him in case of injury.

What would a policy like that cost?  You would be insuring for something that has a relatively high chance of occurring with a potential payout of millions of dollars.

I know that this example is incredibly simplified, but let's assume the actuaries determine that Noels has a 1% chance in any given year to suffer a career-ending injury, with a potential payout of $10 million if he does.  Just to break even, the insurance company would have to charge $100,000 per year for that policy, right?  What kid could afford that?

[4everwarriors]

What would a policy like that cost?  You would be insuring for something that has a relatively high chance of occurring with a potential payout of millions of dollars.

I know that this example is incredibly simplified, but let's assume the actuaries determine that Noels has a 1% chance in any given year to suffer a career-ending injury, with a potential payout of $10 million if he does.  Just to break even, the insurance company would have to charge $100,000 per year for that policy, right?  What kid could afford that?

Football players do it all the time. Besides, Kentucky alums are loaded.

[Pakuni]

When you're running a business in a free country you weigh the risk/reward of the decisions you make and act accordingly. Make good decisions, you prosper. Poor ones, you fail. Now I get why the NBA doesn't want it to be a free country, but telling adults they're not allowed to play in the NBA because the people in charge would make foolish decisions and hurt their own product is unfair.

On the other hand, in this particular free country we have a long (and lawful) tradition of collective bargaining between labor and management that allows them to determine the terms of employment in a manner that, ideally, is beneficial to each side.
It may or may not be fair, but it has nothing to do with being in a free country. And it's hardly unique to the NBA. Try finding work as a construction laborer with the "free country" argument.

[DegenerateDish]

Noel could purchased an insurance policy to protect him in case of injury.

I was scrolling through waiting for someone to bring this up. Best response here. Do the smart thing and buy insurance. While you can debate his future earnings potential vs liability of the coverage, this is all that needs to be pointed out, end of discussion.

[honkytonk]

AnotherMU84 loves this stuff.

1) The sport of football will fold. It's too dangerous.
2) Noel got hurt so the NBA will change a draft rule.
3) Ancient aliens built everything on this planet.
4) The ACC will implode, ND will move to the C7 and become the greatest conference in the history of the earth.

Regarding Noel, how about the NCAA (and maybe the NBA) move the bottom of the basket further away from the baseline? It was the second injury in as many weeks due to the base of the rim interfering. Maybe they will look into it. Then again, maybe they'll think it isnt a problem because injuries from it are so infrequent. For change to happen, it typically takes a hell of a lot more problems to occur than just one or two or three...

[Tugg Speedman]

AnotherMU84 loves this stuff.

1) The sport of football will fold. It's too dangerous.
2) Noel got hurt so the NBA will change a draft rule.
3) Ancient aliens built everything on this planet.
4) The ACC will implode, ND will move to the C7 and become the greatest conference in the history of the earth.

Regarding Noel, how about the NCAA (and maybe the NBA) move the bottom of the basket further away from the baseline? It was the second injury in as many weeks due to the base of the rim interfering. Maybe they will look into it. Then again, maybe they'll think it isnt a problem because injuries from it are so infrequent. For change to happen, it typically takes a hell of a lot more problems to occur than just one or two or three...

Hey hey hey ... ancient aliens only built the pyramids.  They brought humans to their planet and trained them to build everything else.

Get your facts straight!

[Pakuni]

What would a policy like that cost?  You would be insuring for something that has a relatively high chance of occurring with a potential payout of millions of dollars.

I know that this example is incredibly simplified, but let's assume the actuaries determine that Noels has a 1% chance in any given year to suffer a career-ending injury, with a potential payout of $10 million if he does.  Just to break even, the insurance company would have to charge $100,000 per year for that policy, right?  What kid could afford that?

Well, that's not really how insurance rates are determined, but regardless ... the chance of a suffering a career-ending injury are far smaller than 1 percent. How many top prospects can you name who suffered a career-ending injury in college? Even guys like Willis McGahee went on to earn tens of millions of dollars after suffering devastating injuries in college. A guy like Eric LeGrand (who probably wasn't a top prospect, regardless) is more like 1 in 100,000.

[Tugg Speedman]

Any chance that this injury (assuming it is as bad as the media is assuming) causes Noel to return to UK?  And, if his injury causes UK to miss the tourney, do others return to boost their draft stock.

What I'm asking is Cal expects a certain number to leave or he is over-signed.  Does the Noel injury increase the chance that UK winds up over-signed and someone has to be sent packing?

Added

UK has 13 scholarship players (maximum allowed).  Only 2 are seniors (Beckham and Mays).  UK has signed 6 players already for next year (Harrison twins, Young, Johnson, Lee and Willis) and have three more still considering (Wiggins, Randle and Gordon).  

So, UK is over-signed by at least 4.

[warriorchick]

Well, that's not really how insurance rates are determined, but regardless ... the chance of a suffering a career-ending injury are far smaller than 1 percent. How many top prospects can you name who suffered a career-ending injury in college? Even guys like Willis McGahee went on to earn tens of millions of dollars after suffering devastating injuries in college. A guy like Eric LeGrand (who probably wasn't a top prospect, regardless) is more like 1 in 100,000.

Perhaps "career-ending" was a poor word choice.  How about "career-affecting"?   How often does it happen that college players suffer injuries that knock at least $10 million off their lifetime career-earning potential?  A few times a year?  That's a lot when you consider that realistically, the number of kids coming out of college every year that could have even a chance to earn that kind of money is fewer than 50.

And speaking of that, you'd have to bump the premium up further to account for the endless litigation costs that would occur while determining the amount of the loss involved, because the number would be almost 100% subjective unless the guy got the injury after his NBA contract was drawn up, but before he had a chance to sign it.  Midway through freshman year?  The insurance company is going to say the guy was an overrated stiff, and the player's attorney is going to say he would have been the next Michael Jordan.

Again, I admit my example was extremely simplified, but does anyone have real examples of what these types of insurance policies would cost?

[Lennys Tap]

Unless you are a bank. 

A BIG bank. The little guys failed.

[MerrittsMustache]

Any chance that this injury (assuming it is as bad as the media is assuming) causes Noel to return to UK?  And, if his injury causes UK to miss the tourney, do others return to boost their draft stock.

What I'm asking is Cal expects a certain number to leave or he is over-signed.  Does the Noel injury increase the chance that UK winds up over-signed and someone has to be sent packing?

Added

UK has 13 scholarship players (maximum allowed).  Only 2 are seniors (Beckham and Mays).  UK has signed 6 players already for next year (Harrison twins, Young, Johnson, Lee and Willis) and have three more still considering (Wiggins, Randle and Gordon).  

So, UK is over-signed by at least 4.

Noel is more likely to go now - don't want to risk further injury when there are millions on the table. Poythress and Goodwin are gone too. I believe they also have 1-2 walk-ons who were given schollies for this season.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I can see a couple of benefits for the NBA:

- it lessens the need for them to draft solely on potential. The high schoolers you'll see them drafting early will be kids they're confident can play right away and have obvious NBA skills. Guys like LeBron, Rose, Dwight Howard, etc. Otherwise, they won't draft less-than sure things players who have options.

- It forces most players to develop for three years in college, giving NBA teams a better read on their abilities and allowing them to enter the league more "NBA-ready." It's been said here and elsewhere that the "one-year" rule is all about NBA teams not wanting to babysit high schoolers, but is a kid with one season of college really that much more prepared for the pros than a high schooler? Were Derrick Favors and Xavier Henry and Jrue Holiday and Byron Mullens more NBA-ready players because of they spent seven months in college?

Perhaps a better example would be an NHL model. You draft a kid when he's 18 and retain his rights even if he goes to college, for at least two years. In the case of college players, rights are retained for 30 days after they leave college.

I see where you are going, but if I was an NBA owner, my response would be:

"We can hardly run our own league (referees on the take, off the court issues for players and coaches, small markets struggling for revenue, etc. etc.). I don't think taking on MORE infrastructure is a good idea for this league. Make the college rule a 3 year minimum. If HS kids skip college and go to Europe for 3 years, even better for us... it will allow us to evaluate Euro-talent vs American talent. I don't want the headache of trying to support and run an entire minor league system. The D-league is one thing, but trying to actually cultivate a viable minor league is a LARGE undertaking."


I know there is potential with what you are saying, but for right now, I would be frightened to extend that infrastructure. Let colleges and Europeans worry about that stuff.

It's the same reason most entry level office jobs require a college degree. I don't think I actually used my degree in my first 2 years of working in an office, but I needed it to get in the door.

[Pakuni]

Perhaps "career-ending" was a poor word choice.  How about "career-affecting"?   How often does it happen that college players suffer injuries that knock at least $10 million off their lifetime career-earning potential?  A few times a year?  That's a lot when you consider that realistically, the number of kids coming out of college every year that could have even a chance to earn that kind of money is fewer than 50.

And speaking of that, you'd have to bump the premium up further to account for the endless litigation costs that would occur while determining the amount of the loss involved, because the number would be almost 100% subjective unless the guy got the injury after his NBA contract was drawn up, but before he had a chance to sign it.  Midway through freshman year?  The insurance company is going to say the guy was an overrated stiff, and the player's attorney is going to say he would have been the next Michael Jordan.

Again, I admit my example was extremely simplified, but does anyone have real examples of what these types of insurance policies would cost?

Some of the reasons you cite above are why insurers wouldn't issue any kind of policy other than one for a definite career-ending injury. A real-life example of this being discussed right now is with Jadeveon Clowney, who's seeking insurance to play in college next year knowing that he'll almost certainly be the first pick of the 2014 NFL Draft.

[Bocephys]

Some of the reasons you cite above are why insurers wouldn't issue any kind of policy other than one for a definite career-ending injury. A real-life example of this being discussed right now is with Jadeveon Clowney, who's seeking insurance to play in college next year knowing that he'll almost certainly be the first pick of the 2014 NFL Draft.

Colt McCoy is the first name that popped into my head while reading this thread.  I'm sure there have been others.  The trick is obviously having the capital to foot the premiums for a year.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4356869

[warriorchick]

Some of the reasons you cite above are why insurers wouldn't issue any kind of policy other than one for a definite career-ending injury. A real-life example of this being discussed right now is with Jadeveon Clowney, who's seeking insurance to play in college next year knowing that he'll almost certainly be the first pick of the 2014 NFL Draft.

Any guy named Jadeveon Clowney has to play college hoops long enough to make The Poll.  Just sayin'.

[Pakuni]

I see where you are going, but if I was an NBA owner, my response would be:

"We can hardly run our own league (referees on the take, off the court issues for players and coaches, small markets struggling for revenue, etc. etc.). I don't think taking on MORE infrastructure is a good idea for this league. Make the college rule a 3 year minimum. If HS kids skip college and go to Europe for 3 years, even better for us... it will allow us to evaluate Euro-talent vs American talent. I don't want the headache of trying to support and run an entire minor league system. The D-league is one thing, but trying to actually cultivate a viable minor league is a LARGE undertaking."


I know there is potential with what you are saying, but for right now, I would be frightened to extend that infrastructure. Let colleges and Europeans worry about that stuff.

It's the same reason most entry level office jobs require a college degree. I don't think I actually used my degree in my first 2 years of working in an office, but I needed it to get in the door.

The owners wouldn't necessarily have to take on the infrastructure, or at least not much of it. Minor league baseball and hockey teams, and their infrastructures, are very rarely owned  (if ever ... can't think of an example, though there may be one) by the MLB/NHL affiliates. The MLB/NHL teams just provide the players and, in MLB's case, the coaches. The stadiums, travel costs, non-player personnel, etc., are all funded by the team's ownership, not the affiliate. And given the explosion of minor-league sports over the past couple decades, I think the NBA could find enough owners to set up a developmental league that costs them little more than lending their name to it.

I'm not saying it'll happen, or that there aren't good reasons for NBA owners to prefer their current set up, but I think there are clear benefits and it could be done with it becoming a WNBA-like financial drain.

[lab_warrior]

A BIG bank. The little guys failed.

So Lehman Brothers is, er, uh, WAS, a "little" bank?

[MUBurrow]

I was scrolling through waiting for someone to bring this up. Best response here. Do the smart thing and buy insurance. While you can debate his future earnings potential vs liability of the coverage, this is all that needs to be pointed out, end of discussion.

Couldn't disagree more. As warriorchick brought up - you're telling an 18 year old to buy insurance on an asset he isnt permitted to make the money on that would be required to pay the premium. Far from being end of story, it's a non-starter.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Noel is officially done for the season...ACL

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/story/_/id/8944097/nerlens-noel-kentucky-wildcats-torn-acl-for-season