How our wins/losses are performing

[Tugg Speedman]

We don't need this debate if MU would win games like Pitt and Seton Hall rather then lose them.

Doubly so if we would win games like Michigan and Wisconsin.

If we did the above then Nova would be playing the #1 team tomorrow, not MU.

[KampusFoods]

If we did the above then Nova would be playing the #1 team tomorrow, not MU.

This is incorrect.

[Golden Avalanche]

The worst, this is.

+1

As bad as it is in written form, when done verbally it makes my head shake.

[brewcity77]

That is what is wrong with the schedule debate, The schedule does not get you in the tournament. Winning games is what gets you in the tournament. Last year's schedule would of got us in the tournament, if we would of won 25(?) games. This year's schedule will take less wins, but the wins are tougher to come by. We were not good enough to win enough games last year. While it is true a tougher schedule requires less wins, it is still the wins that matter.

No, sadly what's wrong is you every time you discuss scheduling. This is no exception.

In the past 7 years, Marquette has played 45 games against sub-100 non-conference teams at home. They are 44-1 in those games, with the only exception being Nebraska-Omaha in the disastrous 2015 campaign. So on those odds, playing a sub-100 non-con team at home is 97.8% likely to yield a win. 45 games in 7 years means we average 6.4 such games per year.

Why is this important? We play 30-31 regular season games per year. 18 on conference, 6 "quality" non-con games (tournament, home-and-home, neutral, etc), and these 6.4 games. The conference games will always be determined for us. 4/6 quality games will be assigned by the non-con tournament we play in and the inclusion of Wisconsin. That means that at the end of the day, we have control over at most 8.4 games on the schedule (unless we play in the Gavitt, then only 7.4).

So over 75% of the controllable schedule comes down to those 6.4 games. We know playing teams that win single digit games will drag down the RPI, so maximizing those few games is of the utmost importance. Those 6.4 games are the difference between winning 20 games and having a 110 RPI or winning 19 games and having a 46 RPI like we are projected to have now.

What's most important is that 97.8% likelihood of a win. We're going 6.4-0 in those games anyway. Do you want to have to go 13-11 in the other games to get a bid or 17-7? You're playing the same 24 teams in those games regardless. The end result is the same, but the scheduling makes all the difference.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

If we did the above then Nova would be playing the #1 team tomorrow, not MU.

Doubtful. I think we would be 6th behind Villanova, Baylor, Kansas, UCLA, and Gonzaga. But I understand your point. It would be a top 10 matchup for sure. Possibly top 5.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Holy poop, Artis with 43 points for Pitt tonight in a close loss @#14 Louisville

[VegasWarrior77]

Michigan got crushed at Illinois-Urbana Wednesday night: 85-69

[CTWarrior]

+1

As bad as it is in written form, when done verbally it makes my head shake.

Why verbally?  I get the issue of typing would of or should of, but would've and should've are perfectly acceptable contractions of would have or should have.  And when speaking, would've sounds an awful lot like would of, so much so that I can't tell the difference.

[brewcity77]

Here's an update on how they are all performing, using Pomeroy numbers. Only counting D1 opponents for record and in best wins and worst losses:

64 Vanderbilt, 8-8 (2-2)

Best Wins: 62 Chattanooga, 104 Auburn, @135 LSU
Worst Losses: @57 Middle Tennessee, @77 Alabama, 113 Bucknell
Next Three: 1/14 66 Tennessee, 1/17 @49 Georgia, 1/21 @14 Florida

338 Howard, 1-13 (0-1)

Best Win: 301 American
Worst Losses: 191 Jacksonville State, 220 Gardner-Webb (N), 346 Florida A&M
Next Three: 1/14 @313 Maryland-Eastern Shore, 1/16 345 Coppin State, 1/21 @344 North Carolina A&T

46 Michigan, 11-6 (1-3)

Best Wins: 26 SMU (N), 35 Marquette (N), 82 Texas
Worst Losses: 53 Maryland, @63 Illinois, @70 Iowa
Next Three: 1/14 86 Nebraska, 1/17 @9 Wisconsin, 1/21 63 Illinois

51 Pittsburgh 12-5 (1-3)

Best Wins: 4 Virginia, 35 Marquette (N), @53 Maryland
Worst Losses: 26 SMU (N), @54 Syracuse, 196 Duquesne (N)
Next Three: 1/14 38 Miami, 1/17 @65 NC State, 1/24 11 Louisville

174 IUPUI 5-11 (1-3)

Best Wins: 92 Eastern Michigan, 199 Ball State, 268 Western Illinois
Worst Losses: @285 Miami (OH), @286 Eastern Kentucky, @323 SIU-Edwardsville
Next Three: 1/14 @213 Oral Roberts, 1/18 252 South Dakota State, 1/21 169 Denver

238 Houston Baptist 4-8 (3-2)

Best Wins: 186 St. Peter's, @206 Sam Houston State, 227 Southeastern Louisiana
Worst Losses: @136 New Mexico, @239 Stephen F Austin, 310 Central Arkansas
Next Three: 1/14 @305 Incarnate Word, 1/19 @219 New Orleans, @227 Southeastern Louisiana

311 Western Carolina 3-12 (0-4)

Best Wins: @243 Appalachian State, 306 High Point, @308 Jackson State
Worst Losses: 159 Samford, 164 NC-Central, @335 VMI
Next Three: 1/14 @68 East Tennessee State, 1/19 296 The Citadel, 1/21 183 Mercer

49 Georgia 10-5 (3-1)

Best Wins: @96 Mississippi, @104 Auburn, 116 UNC-Asheville
Worst Losses: 31 South Carolina, 35 Marquette, @74 Oakland
Next Three: 1/14 @14 Florida, 1/17 64 Vanderbilt, 1/21 @55 Texas A&M

150 Fresno State 8-7 (2-3)

Best Wins: 73 Nevada, 139 Wyoming, @228 Pacific
Worst Losses: @192 Air Force, @208 San Jose State, 321 Prairie View A&M
Next Three: 1/14 69 Boise State, 1/18 110 Colorado State, 1/21 @73 Nevada

9 Wisconsin 14-3 (3-1)

Best Wins: @28 Indiana, @35 Marquette, 54 Syracuse
Worst Losses: 6 North Carolina (N), @18 Purdue, @20 Creighton
Next Three: 1/17 46 Michigan, 1/21 @34 Minnesota, 1/24 83 Penn State

271 St. Francis, PA 5-10 (3-2)

Best Wins: @290 Robert Morris, @301 American, @314 Sacred Heart
Worst Losses: 249 LIU-Brooklyn, @273 Fairleigh Dickinson, 298 Binghamton
Next Three: 1/14 @224 Mount St. Mary's, 1/19 277 Bryant, 1/21 342 Central Connecticut

323 SIU-Edwardsville 4-12 (0-4)

Best Wins: 174 IUPUI, @190 Grand Canyon, @276 Hawaii
Worst Losses: 307 Austin Peay, 315 Stetson, @219 St. Louis
Next Three: 1/14 160 Murray State, 1/19 @251 Southeast Missouri State, 1/21 @241 Tennessee-Martin

[jonny09]

You guys are really gonna piss wadesworld and his gang of tools off if you don't move this to the superbar.

[Newsdreams]

You guys are really gonna piss wadesworld and his gang of tools off if you don't move this to the superbar.

Teal?

[We R Final Four]

Vandy win @ #19 FLA 68-66.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

A real heartbreaker for Georgia yesterday. If you didn't see it, watch the highlights. Scoop would be in meltdown if that happened to MU.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

A real heartbreaker for Georgia yesterday. If you didn't see it, watch the highlights. Scoop would be in meltdown if that happened to MU.

Happy my Aggies won, but Georgia got jobbed.

[shoothoops]

Big win for Vandy at Florida yesterday, moved their RPI to 55.

[Jay Bee]

Big win for Vandy at Florida yesterday, moved their RPI to 55.

Only to 57 through yesterday's games. At the moment, 58.

Again, I'd warn against some sources. ESPN is one who is usually wrong.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Tanned Tommy currently being taken to the woodshed by Michigan. Hopefully Michigan doesnt pull a Nova 

[shoothoops]

Vandy wins easily at Arkansas without Matthew Fisher Davis and is at a 48 RPI.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Vandy wins easily at Arkansas without Matthew Fisher Davis and is at a 48 RPI.

That helps. Michigan also trounced MSU last night.

[GoldenDieners32]

Vandy wins easily at Arkansas without Matthew Fisher Davis and is at a 48 RPI.

Is vandy considered a "good" win now?

[wadesworld]

Is vandy considered a "good" win now?

No.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

No.

Depends on your definition of good. A neutral court drubbing of a top 50 team is definitely good. I don't know that it's great.

[JamilJaeJamailJrJuan]

Is vandy considered a "good" win now?

No.

Hopefully it ends up as another top 50 RPI win.  Not great, but those will help on SS.

[shoothoops]

No.

I wouldn't be so quickly dismissive.

Perhaps the question needs to be...Is the Marquette loss a bad loss for Vandy at this time?

Vandy has exactly one loss all season to a team with a worse current RPI than Marquette, at this time. (Bucknell 84)

Marquette has some opportunities left. Hopefully they will take advantage of them. 

[wadesworld]

Vandy is a 12-12 overall team that is 5-6 in the SEC.  They have one good win (at Florida) and a couple decent wins (at Texas A&M and vs. Iowa State).  They got smoked by Middle Tennessee.  Their RPI makes it a nice win for us, but they are not a good basketball team.