NBA Draft

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

My guess is that there is back-channeling.  You just aren't hearing about it.  And that Jrue has already agreed to opt-in.  (I feel much more accurate my first point than my second.)

[wadesworld]

I think Giannis signs the supermax before Thanksgiving.

[MUfan12]

George Hill was their best guard in the playoffs the last two seasons. I love the guy, and am sad to see him go, but this is precisely why you make the deals they did last night.

I also don't think they make these deals without some assurances from 34.

[DegenerateDish]

Here’s the draft pick breakdown of what New Orleans received:

2020 1st
2024 Swap
2025 1st Unprotected
2026 Swap
2027 1st Unprotected

I still admire them going for it, but man that is a truckload for Holiday. Giannis will be in his 30’s by the time the four consecutive swaps/unprotected hit.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Here’s the draft pick breakdown of what New Orleans received:

2020 1st
2024 Swap
2025 1st Unprotected
2026 Swap
2027 1st Unprotected

I still admire them going for it, but man that is a truckload for Holiday. Giannis will be in his 30’s by the time the four consecutive swaps/unprotected hit.

And this ownership will have flipped the team by then too.  But there is no way this franchise is going to regularly compete for NBA titles.  Gotta take your shot when its there.

[wadesworld]

George Hill was their best guard in the playoffs the last two seasons. I love the guy, and am sad to see him go, but this is precisely why you make the deals they did last night.

I also don't think they make these deals without some assurances from 34.

I love Hill and he was great in the regular season, but he was not very good in the bubble at all.  Looked very disinterested in being there, understandably so.

Here’s the draft pick breakdown of what New Orleans received:

2020 1st
2024 Swap
2025 1st Unprotected
2026 Swap
2027 1st Unprotected

I still admire them going for it, but man that is a truckload for Holiday. Giannis will be in his 30’s by the time the four consecutive swaps/unprotected hit.

The Bucks got the #s 42 and 60 picks in Wednesdays draft as well.  That's one way to fill a roster cheaply.

The Bucks have been absolutely terrible at drafting.  They hit the absolute lottery with Giannis, but otherwise their first round drafting has been a complete disaster, and is why they had to throw in so many picks, because they have no assets.  I'm all on board with throwing away draft picks if you're winding up with Thon Maker, Rashad Vaughn, DJ Wilson, and even Donte Divencenzo.

[Pakuni]

Here’s the draft pick breakdown of what New Orleans received:

2020 1st
2024 Swap
2025 1st Unprotected
2026 Swap
2027 1st Unprotected

I still admire them going for it, but man that is a truckload for Holiday. Giannis will be in his 30’s by the time the four consecutive swaps/unprotected hit.

Assuming Giannis sticks around long term and remains healthy, these picks don't hold a lot of value. It is a lot to give up, but if this is what it takes to keep Giannis in Milwaukee, then it's worth it.
And if at some point the indications are that Giannis wants out, the Bucks can recoup this draft capital  - and I would guess even more - by dealing him.

[ChitownSpaceForRent]

Definitely getting some Mr. Irrelevant vibes for Markus’ draft stock with the Bucks now at #60

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

The Bucks have been absolutely terrible at drafting.  They hit the absolute lottery with Giannis, but otherwise their first round drafting has been a complete disaster, and is why they had to throw in so many picks, because they have no assets.  I'm all on board with throwing away draft picks if you're winding up with Thon Maker, Rashad Vaughn, DJ Wilson, and even Donte Divencenzo.

Under Horst, they have really only picked three guys.  2017 - DJ Wilson (bad), Sterling Brown (decent), 2018 - Donte (decent)

Donte is good enough to be trade fodder.  That's what most mid to late first round picks end up being anyway.

[wadesworld]

Definitely getting some Mr. Irrelevant vibes for Markus’ draft stock with the Bucks now at #60

I hope so!  I have no idea why I feel this way, but I think he is gone by then, and I think it's closer to the Bucks #42 pick than it is their #60 pick.

Under Horst, they have really only picked three guys.  2017 - DJ Wilson (bad), Sterling Brown (decent), 2018 - Donte (decent)

Donte is good enough to be trade fodder.  That's what most mid to late first round picks end up being anyway.

Agreed.  Donte was a solid pick, and had most of our failed first round picks been what he is the Bucks would've been in much better position to make trades without mortgaging literally everything they have.

[MUfan12]

I love Hill and he was great in the regular season, but he was not very good in the bubble at all.  Looked very disinterested in being there, understandably so.

Right, and he was still better than Bled and Donte.

This will also be a pretty big test for Budenholzer... short window to build chemistry with a new roster.

[Pakuni]

Under Horst, they have really only picked three guys.  2017 - DJ Wilson (bad), Sterling Brown (decent), 2018 - Donte (decent)

Donte is good enough to be trade fodder.  That's what most mid to late first round picks end up being anyway.

Those picks look a little worse when you consider John Collins went two picks after DJ Wilson and Kevin Huerter went two picks after DiVincenzo.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Those picks look a little worse when you consider John Collins went two picks after DJ Wilson and Kevin Huerter went two picks after DiVincenzo.

Right.  They haven't been perfect by any means, but they haven't been terrible under Horst.

[DegenerateDish]

Assume Holiday re-up’s and agrees to a contract extension. Hypothetically, he’d be looking at conservatively $30 mil per starting in ‘22.

Let’s say it’s an even $30 mil in ‘22. With a Giannis super max and a hypothetical 4 year $70 mil extension for Bogdanovic, the Bucks in ‘22 will have $128 mil committed to 4 players. Brook Lopez will be on an expiring deal that season at $14. That’s five players at $142 mil.

They’d be above the $140 mil tax threshold and filling out the roster would push them past the salary cap apron.

Again, I admire them going all in now, I get it. Their window is two years with this group, and then it can get really ugly.

[wadesworld]

Assume Holiday re-up’s and agrees to a contract extension. Hypothetically, he’d be looking at conservatively $30 mil per starting in ‘22.

Let’s say it’s an even $30 mil in ‘22. With a Giannis super max and a hypothetical 4 year $70 mil extension for Bogdanovic, the Bucks in ‘22 will have $128 mil committed to 4 players. Brook Lopez will be on an expiring deal that season at $14. That’s five players at $142 mil.

They’d be above the $140 mil tax threshold and filling out the roster would push them past the salary cap apron.

Again, I admire them going all in now, I get it. Their window is two years with this group, and then it can get really ugly.

I really don't see it getting all that ugly.  If Giannis signs the supermax he's here for 6 years (including this one).  Any team with Giannis is going to be a top 4 seed in the East even if you surround him with garbage.  He just plays way, way harder than anyone cares to stop in the regular season.  If he gets tired of shouldering the weight of the franchise by himself just to lose in the 2nd and 3rd round every year, you're getting a heck of a lot more back for him than you gave up for Jrue Holiday.

[Hards Alumni]

I really don't see it getting all that ugly.  If Giannis signs the supermax he's here for 6 years (including this one).  Any team with Giannis is going to be a top 4 seed in the East even if you surround him with garbage.  He just plays way, way harder than anyone cares to stop in the regular season.  If he gets tired of shouldering the weight of the franchise by himself just to lose in the 2nd and 3rd round every year, you're getting a heck of a lot more back for him than you gave up for Jrue Holiday.

He is going to get old.  He takes a lot of abuse

[Pakuni]

Again, I admire them going all in now, I get it. Their window is two years with this group, and then it can get really ugly.

Well, if it gets ugly after 2022, what's a 27-year-old Giannis - with four years of control - worth on the trade market?
My guess is the deal would be at least equal to, and probably better than, what the Pelicans got for AD (i.e. two young starters, multiple unprotected firsts).

[wadesworld]

He is going to get old.  He takes a lot of abuse

He'll be 32 by the end of that deal.  Professional athletes do not decline that drastically at that age.  I'll go on record and say he's still a top 5 player in the world at age 32 (obviously barring some catastrophic injury).

[MUfan12]

Giannis' game is all attack. Lots of eurostepping in traffic, hard fouls, etc.

LeBron developing his perimeter game added years to the back end of his career. I hope Giannis can do the same.

[Pakuni]

He is going to get old.  He takes a lot of abuse

League history is rife with top power forwards who remained elite into their early 30s, i.e. Tim Duncan, Karl Malone, Charles Barkley, Kevin Garnett.
You could get unlucky with injuries, but there's no reason to think his play is otherwise going to fall off dramatically once he hits 30.

[Hards Alumni]

Giannis' game is all attack. Lots of eurostepping in traffic, hard fouls, etc.

LeBron developing his perimeter game added years to the back end of his career. I hope Giannis can do the same.

This was mostly my point.  And Giannis is far thinner than Lebron... and any of the guys Pak mentioned... except maybe KG

[MUBurrow]

Here’s the draft pick breakdown of what New Orleans received:

2020 1st
2024 Swap
2025 1st Unprotected
2026 Swap
2027 1st Unprotected

I still admire them going for it, but man that is a truckload for Holiday. Giannis will be in his 30’s by the time the four consecutive swaps/unprotected hit.

Grooooannnnnn.  I hate the idea of trading unprotected picks, ever, for any reason. And that far into the future is... oof.

Do you really not get Jrue Holiday if you make those picks top three protected? Hell, top one protected? I had thought that was basically the standard now since New Jersey traded their franchise's future for what was left of Boston's championship teams.  If the answer is no, is Jrue Holiday so much the guy that you risk a future phenom (who is currently 12-14 years old) to get him?  I like going for it as much as the next guy, but the unprotected nature of those picks make it hard for me to believe this was the best/only way to do it.

[wadesworld]

Bucks could probably do worse than adding Jamil Wilson.

[Pakuni]

Giannis' game is all attack. Lots of eurostepping in traffic, hard fouls, etc.

It's becoming less and less so. Compare his shot map last year to where it was just a couple of years ago.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/giannis-shot-chart-by-season

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Grooooannnnnn.  I hate the idea of trading unprotected picks, ever, for any reason. And that far into the future is... oof.

Do you really not get Jrue Holiday if you make those picks top three protected? Hell, top one protected? I had thought that was basically the standard now since New Jersey traded their franchise's future for what was left of Boston's championship teams.  If the answer is no, is Jrue Holiday so much the guy that you risk a future phenom (who is currently 12-14 years old) to get him?  I like going for it as much as the next guy, but the unprotected nature of those picks make it hard for me to believe this was the best/only way to do it.

Everyone knew the Bucks had to make a move, so they were going to make them pay.

And by the time the bad part of the trade comes back to haunt the franchise, Horst will be President of the Knicks or something like that.