Marquette Crime Reports

[Lennys Tap]

No Lenny, I'm really not. I'm being honest and analyzing the data that you presented. You are the one who cherry picked a scary sounding headline that matched your narrative. I picked Austin because one of the articles you mentioned linked to another article focused on the homicide record in Austin. To show I'm telling the truth, I'll do the same exercise with the city you picked out, Chicago.

First, 2021 wasn't a record for total homicides in Chicago, that belongs to 1970, so unless Chicago shrunk (it didn't) it's already going to be a lower homicide rate.
1970: 974 murders for 7,106,000 people = 1 murder for every 7,295 people
2021: 797 murders for 8,877,000 people = 1 murder for every 11,138 people

And again, this isn't to minimize what's happening in Chicago and other cities. Any rise in homicide rate is bad and we should be working to reverse that trend. But the narrative that cities today are a war zone and cities back in the good old days were sunshine and rainbows doesn't help the discussion and in many cases derails it and gets in the way of actual progress.

Honestly, your response is a microcosm of how problematically dualistic our society has become. I presented you with data and rather than analyzing it and countering it with data of your own or a logical argument, you just assumed that I was pulling a fast one and accused me of fudging the numbers. We don't care about the truth anymore, we just care about our political team being correct. No one said it better than Rocket "I don't care what the numbers say, perception is reality". The statement is just profoundly sad

LOL. First, I never said Chicago set a record for homicides. I said if had more murders committed than anytime in the last 25 years. Which is true. And that other cities set records. Which they did.

You still haven’t addressed your initial response: “From what I’ve seen there was a small blip during the pandemic which was now reverting to the mean”. Which is false. I ask you where you’ve seen/read such nonsense and you avoid the subject - because nobody on any side of the political spectrum has data that would support it. Rather than seeing it, I’d bet you’ve heard it. In the echo chamber where you live.

[Lennys Tap]

Lennys just a reads the headline but not the entire article? 

Again, more like Chicos than he would like to admit.

 Clarissa

I had high hope for you upon your return to Scoop from your self imposed exile. But you’re regressing into stalker mode. I know it’s hard for you to quit me but unless you’re able to recovery won’t be possible. I’m honestly rooting for you.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

LOL. First, I never said Chicago set a record for homicides. I said if had more murders committed than anytime in the last 25 years. Which is true. And that other cities set records. Which they did.

You still haven’t addressed your initial response: “From what I’ve seen there was a small blip during the pandemic which was now reverting to the mean”. Which is false. I ask you where you’ve seen/read such nonsense and you avoid the subject - because nobody on any side of the political spectrum has data that would support it. Rather than seeing it, I’d bet you’ve heard it. In the echo chamber where you live.

Well first,  you misquoted me. I said seems to be regressing not is regressing. It's early in 2022, in some cites like NYC and philly, murders are down. In some like Chicago they are on pace.  In some like Houston they are up.  We will see what the final result will be. Things could ramp up significantly and I could end up being very wrong.

I didn't say that you said that Chicago set a record. But I did make a point that despite higher total homicides in many cities in 2021, the homicide rate was still significantly lower than it was in the 70s and 80s  and you responded by saying I was cherry picking and said what about Chicago? So I used Chicago to show that homicide rates are still lower than the 70s and 80s.

And for third time, that doesn't mean that the recent rise in homicides isn't a problem, we should be addressing it.

Do you have any thoughts on solutions?

[mu_hilltopper]

Society in the US has been unravelling for a decade+.   Of course crime is going up.

“Things are going to get unimaginably worse, and they are never, ever, going to get better.” - Kurt Vonnegut.

Eat Arby's.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Clarissa

I had high hope for you upon your return to Scoop from your self imposed exile. But you’re regressing into stalker mode. I know it’s hard for you to quit me but unless you’re able to recovery won’t be possible. I’m honestly rooting for you.

I’m stalking you by responding to your posts?  😂😂😂😂

[Pakuni]

You still haven’t addressed your initial response: “From what I’ve seen there was a small blip during the pandemic which was now reverting to the mean”. Which is false. I ask you where you’ve seen/read such nonsense and you avoid the subject - because nobody on any side of the political spectrum has data that would support it. Rather than seeing it, I’d bet you’ve heard it. In the echo chamber where you live.

There's no nationwide data on 2022 homicides that I can find (it's early April, after all), but there is data from several major cities.
Let's take a look at YTD homicides last year vs this year:

Chicago (as of April 1)
2021: 137
2022: 133

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/breaking/ct-chicago-homicides-data-tracker-htmlstory.htm

New York (through April 3):
2021: 105
2022: 96

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf

Los Angeles (through April 2:
2021: 95
2022: 85

https://lapdonlinestrgeacc.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/lapdonlinemedia/2022/04/cityprof.pdf

Washington, DC (through April 8):
2021: 48
2022:45

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance

Baltimore:
2021: 73
2022: 78

https://data.baltimorecity.gov/documents/police-department-baltimore-maryland-incident-report-4-5-2022/explore

Dallas (through April 7):
2021: 54
2022: 51


Milwaukee (through today, it seems):
2021: 38
2022: 55

https://city.milwaukee.gov/police/Information-Services/Crime-Maps-and-Statistics

Miami (through April 3)
2021:32
2022:15

https://www.miamidade.gov/police/library/part-1-crimes-ytd-comparison.pdf

Atlanta (through April 2)
2021: 30
2022: 43

https://www.atlantapd.org/home/showpublisheddocument/4738

Minneapolis (through April 8)
2021: 40
2022: 40

So, it seems based on the data, homicides have dipped in most major Metro areas here, though it's generally a mixed bag. Mostly, Milwaukee and Atlanta are ruining it for the rest of us.

Note: I either couldn't find or there were no YTD stats for Houston, Detroit, Boston, Phoenx and Philly (the Philly site was down), so if you can find those, great.

[MU82]

   "Is it possible that our high rate of incarceration contributes to the current level of crime? I think it is likely."


  i disagree.  i don't believe you can conflate the 2 here. 


  "So is negative reinforcement the only way to address crime? My personal experience is that threatening people into making good choices rarely works and rewarding people for making good choices is usually a lot more effective."

  not the only way, but rewarding "is USUALLY a lot more effective"?? 

  ok, some dude commits a crime so he can be rewarded for NOT doing it again??  to pay people NOT to do something that is wrong?  hey, i didn't steal something today...pay me.  i haven't raped anyone recently-better pay up or i might just have to lose all self control??

     maybe in SOME cases, rewarding can be effective, but sounds like you do not like the idea of imprisonment.  what do we do about those who make our society unsafe?  don't we deserve to live safe without worry that our cars won't be taken from us?  our women will not be raped?  our children will not be abused? 

i think we have instituted programs where prisoners of certain crimes can "earn" their way out by following certain set standards

we have f'd up our society to the point where crime has run rampant without regard for human life and property.

roQQet, you must be outraged that the former president issued pardons for criminals like Manafort, Stone, Flynn and Bannon, and that he already has said that if he's elected again he'll pardon the violent, seditionist felons who played a major role in injuring cops and attacking democracy during the deadly coup attempt against the U.S. government.

[wadesworld]

I’m stalking you by responding to your posts?  😂😂😂😂

Have you emailed his HR department yet?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

  why don't you go fu#* yourself smith!!  sick and tired of your bullschiff man!!

If you don't want to be called out, maybe try not to admit that facts are meaningless to you and your reality is whatever false narrative you wish it to be.

[lawdog77]

There's no nationwide data on 2022 homicides that I can find (it's early April, after all), but there is data from several major cities.
Let's take a look at YTD homicides last year vs this year:

Chicago (as of April 1)
2021: 137
2022: 133

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/breaking/ct-chicago-homicides-data-tracker-htmlstory.htm

New York (through April 3):
2021: 105
2022: 96

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf

Los Angeles (through April 2:
2021: 95
2022: 85

https://lapdonlinestrgeacc.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/lapdonlinemedia/2022/04/cityprof.pdf

Washington, DC (through April 8):
2021: 48
2022:45

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance

Baltimore:
2021: 73
2022: 78

https://data.baltimorecity.gov/documents/police-department-baltimore-maryland-incident-report-4-5-2022/explore

Dallas (through April 7):
2021: 54
2022: 51


Milwaukee (through today, it seems):
2021: 38
2022: 55

https://city.milwaukee.gov/police/Information-Services/Crime-Maps-and-Statistics

Miami (through April 3)
2021:32
2022:15

https://www.miamidade.gov/police/library/part-1-crimes-ytd-comparison.pdf

Atlanta (through April 2)
2021: 30
2022: 43

https://www.atlantapd.org/home/showpublisheddocument/4738

Minneapolis (through April 8)
2021: 40
2022: 40

So, it seems based on the data, homicides have dipped in most major Metro areas here, though it's generally a mixed bag. Mostly, Milwaukee and Atlanta are ruining it for the rest of us.

Note: I either couldn't find or there were no YTD stats for Houston, Detroit, Boston, Phoenx and Philly (the Philly site was down), so if you can find those, great.

If this is "reverting to the mean" no need for stronger gun laws

[🏀]

Have you emailed his HR department yet?

Never forget how pathetic the meat lovers are. They will contact your HR department if you don't agree with them.

[Goose]

Hey Lenny,
Lay off my guy, Sultan!!

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Hey Lenny,
Lay off my guy, Sultan!!

Hey Lenny’s guardian is here!! 

[Goose]

Sultan,

You are my guy, I’m watching out for you.

[Lennys Tap]

I’m stalking you by responding to your posts?  😂😂😂😂

You didn’t respond to my post. You interjected yourself into a back and forth between TAMU and myself to talk sh!t about me. You do this a lot where I’m concerned and it’s always the same tired, stupid, unfunny stuff. I’m old, losing it or I’m Chicos. Pathetic stalking, but you can’t seem to help yourself. I honestly feel sorry for you.

[Lennys Tap]

Have you emailed his HR department yet?

Never had one - I worked for myself.

But I would never do that to anyone who did have one.

[Lennys Tap]

Well first,  you misquoted me.

Here is your direct quote “What I’ve SEEN is that there was a SMALL spike during the pandemic that seems to be regressing to the mean already”

Where did you SEE information that the spike in homicides was SMALL? On what do you base your stance that the numbers already seem to be regressing to the mean?

This is the third time I’ve asked. So far, crickets.

[Lennys Tap]

There's no nationwide data on 2022 homicides that I can find (it's early April, after all), but there is data from several major cities.
Let's take a look at YTD homicides last year vs this year:

Chicago (as of April 1)
2021: 137
2022: 133

https://www.chicagotribune.com/news/breaking/ct-chicago-homicides-data-tracker-htmlstory.htm

New York (through April 3):
2021: 105
2022: 96

https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-city.pdf

Los Angeles (through April 2:
2021: 95
2022: 85

https://lapdonlinestrgeacc.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/lapdonlinemedia/2022/04/cityprof.pdf

Washington, DC (through April 8):
2021: 48
2022:45

https://mpdc.dc.gov/page/district-crime-data-glance

Baltimore:
2021: 73
2022: 78

https://data.baltimorecity.gov/documents/police-department-baltimore-maryland-incident-report-4-5-2022/explore

Dallas (through April 7):
2021: 54
2022: 51


Milwaukee (through today, it seems):
2021: 38
2022: 55

https://city.milwaukee.gov/police/Information-Services/Crime-Maps-and-Statistics

Miami (through April 3)
2021:32
2022:15

https://www.miamidade.gov/police/library/part-1-crimes-ytd-comparison.pdf

Atlanta (through April 2)
2021: 30
2022: 43

https://www.atlantapd.org/home/showpublisheddocument/4738

Minneapolis (through April 8)
2021: 40
2022: 40

So, it seems based on the data, homicides have dipped in most major Metro areas here, though it's generally a mixed bag. Mostly, Milwaukee and Atlanta are ruining it for the rest of us.

Note: I either couldn't find or there were no YTD stats for Houston, Detroit, Boston, Phoenx and Philly (the Philly site was down), so if you can find those, great.

Pak,

Thank you for the 2022 numbers for some of our major cities. Of the 10 you quote, 6 down, 3 up and 1 flat. Total # of homicides dropped from 652 to 641, a drop of less than 1.7% - sadly more or a rounding error than an indication of a regression to the mean. Hope that changes.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

You didn’t respond to my post. You interjected yourself into a back and forth between TAMU and myself to talk sh!t about me. You do this a lot where I’m concerned and it’s always the same tired, stupid, unfunny stuff. I’m old, losing it or I’m Chicos. Pathetic stalking, but you can’t seem to help yourself. I honestly feel sorry for you.

I call out stupidity. It’s a curse!!!

[Pakuni]

Pak,

Thank you for the 2022 numbers for some of our major cities. Of the 10 you quote, 6 down, 3 up and 1 flat. Total # of homicides dropped from 652 to 641, a drop of less than 1.7% - sadly more or a rounding error than an indication of a regression to the mean. Hope that changes.

And yet combimed with the overall crime rayes, t's more evidence that we experienced a pandemic blip that  any sort of societal/cultural shift, no?

There's also lots of data showing that a good portion of the increase in homicides is a result of domestic violence, further supporting the idea that it's pandemic-related and not the kind of scaremongering some are trying to suggest.

https://www.inquirer.com/opinion/editorials/domestic-violence-guns-sheriff-police-act-79-20220131.html?outputType=amp

https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/2021/10/05/domestic-violence-murders-surge-pandemic-children-ohio-shelters-survivors-violence-guns-homicide/5932121001/

https://gazette.com/dg-print/pandemic-fueled-domestic-violence-leads-to-homicide-spike-in-colorados-largest-cities-copy/article_51070694-52b9-11eb-9753-73c97fb17721.html

[Lennys Tap]

Hope future numbers prove your hypothesis correct. Domestic violence uptick was to be expected with lockdowns but they have been in our rear view mirror for quite a while.

Time will tell.

[Goose]

Pakuni

I believe your stats on MKE are inaccurate, you used 2020 number of 38 vs 2021 number of 30 murders YTD. MKE is up 83% in murders in 2022. It might just be me, but I find that troubling.

[Pakuni]

Pakuni

I believe your stats on MKE are inaccurate, you used 2020 number of 38 vs 2021 number of 30 murders YTD. MKE is up 83% in murders in 2022. It might just be me, but I find that troubling.

You're right.
It should be 30 to 55, not 38 to 55. I misread the column.
Doesn't change anything, though, right? Homicides do seem to be trending down in most places. Milwaukee, along with a few others (Atlanta, among them) seem to be exceptions.

Interesting story here on the reasons behind the surge in homicide in Milwaukee, for those who want to learn something.

https://urbanmilwaukee.com/2022/03/24/whats-driving-milwaukees-homicide-rate/

[MU82]

Interesting story here on the reasons behind the surge in homicide in Milwaukee, for those who want to learn something.

https://urbanmilwaukee.com/2022/03/24/whats-driving-milwaukees-homicide-rate/

That's an interesting, sobering, in-depth look at what's been going on in Milwaukee.

While they are still gathering data and trying to analyze it, the number of murders and violent gun crimes have tracked along similar lines to Wisconsin laws that have made it easier to get guns. There also are a variety of other societal issues at work.

As an adjunct, I just took a quick look at Marquette's enrollment over the last decade or so.

Even though, as the article states, murders and other violent and/or gun crime increased substantially in Milwaukee in 2015, the data would suggest there was no material affect on Marquette enrollment in the years that followed. It was essentially flat over the next few years before hitting an all-time high of 11,819 in 2019-20; the pandemic arrived late in that school year.

So far, at least, increased crime does not seem to have affected Marquette enrollment. If things get worse, it obviously could. But crime happens in big cities -- a fact that parents are well aware of when they agree to send their kids to NYU, Georgetown, USC, UCLA, Arizona State, U of Chicago, Boston College, Washington, Temple, Miami, Minnesota, Marquette, etc, etc, etc.

This is not saying "crime is OK" or "increased crime doesn't matter." We all wish there were no crime.

[21Jumpstreet]

Can’t believe I’m adding to this thread, but I just got an email from my son’s high school that shots were fired from a vehicle traveling eastbound on Wisconsin. It won’t make me question sending them to Marquette High School, but I will remind them to be on their game at night (anytime really) going to their car or the local grade school for service.