HBO Real Sports/Marist Poll About Concussions In Football

[ChicosBailBonds]

As I said - things change.

And the one thing we know about the future is - things will change.

Will football keep it's current level of popularity? Despite Chicos telling us it will, none of us (including Chicos) know that answer

You are correct, none of us know for certain.  We don't know if the sun will explode in the next 12 hours, but I'm going to bet my life that there will be a tomorrow.  Billions of dollars in play here, and the bet is on football being king of the hill for a long time to come.

I'm following the money, especially since some of it is ours and we try not to make dumb bets.  That and the fact there is nothing lying in waiting to challenge it.  Absolutely nothing.

[Tugg Speedman]

You are correct, none of us know for certain.  We don't know if the sun will explode in the next 12 hours, but I'm going to bet my life that there will be a tomorrow.  Billions of dollars in play here, and the bet is on football being king of the hill for a long time to come.

I'm following the money, especially since some of it is ours and we try not to make dumb bets.  That and the fact there is nothing lying in waiting to challenge it.  Absolutely nothing.

The highlighted part is what the tobacco industry supports said.  How did that work out?

[ChicosBailBonds]

The highlighted part is what the tobacco industry supports said.  How did that work out?

Your analogy continues to come up short. 


What's the bet?  I plan on being around in 10 or 15 years...I don't smoke, I'm betting the sun does stick around and despite playing football (and knowing the risks) I'm doing ok.

[Tugg Speedman]

I'd love to see what is going to supplant it....nothing that is out there today.  Maybe a new sport comes along, but

So why does anything have to replace football?  Why can't we have 12 or 14 sports all getting 2 to 4 interest?

The internet fractionalizes everything.  Look at music, more people are listening to music than ever.  But today instead of a few radio stations (taking payola) and spinning Beatles tunes all day, we now have literally have dozens and dozens of genres. I would argue their is almost nothing that could be called "popular music" anymore.  Sure they are radio stations that play what they think is popular music.  But far more people are devising their own narrowly focused radio stations on things like Pandora and Spotify.

Ditto TV.  I would argue the best TV shows ever produced are in the last five years and almost none of them are on traditional networks.  Now, thanks to Netflix, they are not even on TV!

So, why not have the same kind of thing happen in sports.  Fractionalize it to death!

[Tugg Speedman]

Your analogy continues to come up short. 


What's the bet?  I plan on being around in 10 or 15 years...I don't smoke, I'm betting the sun does stick around and despite playing football (and knowing the risks) I'm doing ok.

I'll take the bet ... in 10 to 15 years the popularity of Football is lower than today.

[keefe]

I plan on being around in 10 or 15 years...I don't smoke

Dumb decision. I am taking up the habit so I can sue RJR and Philip Morris and get my lottery prize.

[jesmu84]

I hate the phrase "follow the money." Monied interests will do all they can to keep the money rolling in. So if there's enough of it, they can influence media, government, "research" or studies or what have you. They will do everything within their power to keep hold of the streams of income almost at a complete disregard for anything else - as long as they are turning a profit.

Do I know if football will be as popular in 20 years? No. But people who have it in their best interest to keep football popular will do everything within their power to make sure it is regardless of public opinion, player health, etc, etc.

[ChicosBailBonds]

So why does anything have to replace football?  Why can't we have 12 or 14 sports all getting 2 to 4 interest?

The internet fractionalizes everything.  Look at music, more people are listening to music than ever.  But today instead of a few radio stations (taking payola) and spinning Beatles tunes all day, we now have literally have dozens and dozens of genres. I would argue their is almost nothing that could be called "popular music" anymore.  Sure they are radio stations that play what they think is popular music.  But far more people are devising their own narrowly focused radio stations on things like Pandora and Spotify.

Ditto TV.  I would argue the best TV shows ever produced are in the last five years and almost none of them are on traditional networks.  Now, thanks to Netflix, they are not even on TV!

So, why not have the same kind of thing happen in sports.  Fractionalize it to death!

Many of them, actually aren't on Netflix.  That's what troubles me about your comparisons, they seem to be missing some of the facts.    What is a "traditional" network...an over the air network?  That might be how you define it, but that's not how the industry defines them.  Follow the money.  Same thing goes with football.  Those shows on AMC, A&E, etc...follow the money.  Let's not forget some of those same experts predicted television would be gone by now.      And oh, by the way, Netflix and others are making so little money right now they can't afford to get into the sports game.  It is basically non fractionalized for a reason.  Could it change?  Yes.  Will the players that are spending so much money allow it to change without a massive fight?  You decide. 

Now back to football, isn't your comment and whole premise that football will no longer be the national past time?  What is replacing it?  Or are you saying we will just have a bunch of sports all with mild appeal?  Or will all boats rise and baseball, hoops, etc will catch up with it?  Maybe I'm not understanding your comments or Brand's, but I keep hearing  you guys say how football will be diminished.  OK.  Diminished to what?  From the 800lb gorilla to the 799lb gorilla or to a 100lb gorilla?  Put some context behind it.   

What I'm saying is that 15 years from now, despite gloom and doom predictions here and concussion studies and mommies not letting their sons play football...I'm saying football will be the #1 sport in the United States of America and without compare...15 years from now.  It will not be close.    Happy to hear your take.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I'll take the bet ... in 10 to 15 years the popularity of Football is lower than today.

That's a far cry from what you've been saying.  You make it sound like it will be on the dustbin of history with some of this stuff.

I wouldn't be surprised if the popularity is lower than today, the question is in comparison to what?  Will it not still be the most popular sport in the US, garnering the biggest ratings, etc?  I say without a doubt.

[ChicosBailBonds]

I hate the phrase "follow the money." Monied interests will do all they can to keep the money rolling in. So if there's enough of it, they can influence media, government, "research" or studies or what have you. They will do everything within their power to keep hold of the streams of income almost at a complete disregard for anything else - as long as they are turning a profit.

Do I know if football will be as popular in 20 years? No. But people who have it in their best interest to keep football popular will do everything within their power to make sure it is regardless of public opinion, player health, etc, etc.

Ah....a smart man.  Very good.  You may not like the phrase, but its the phrase that pays.  I'm not nearly as cynical as you are, the popularity will be there because it is popular.  Regardless of the money, the public isn't stupid.  Having said that, the money that flows will definitely mean the promotion, the windowing, etc, will be dedicated to making sure it has the best chance of success.

[Silkk the Shaka]

You realize that just because your company gave out bloated long-term contracts to the NFL that it in no way guarantees the NFL's popularity right? Logical fallacy. There's such a thing as a bad investment. You say follow the money, yet you rag on Netflix. NFLX up 350% in the last year. Over the same time period, DTV is up 23%, lagging the S&P by over 100 bps. Looks like the popular long-term bet is on Netflix. Follow the money, right?

[Lennys Tap]

Regardless of the money, the public isn't stupid. 

Actually, you point out rather frequently how stupid you think they are.

[Archies Bat]

Actually, you point out rather frequently how stupid you think they are.

Home run.

[Chicago_inferiority_complexes]

How can anyone seriously sit down and watch the garbage that is a modern NFL television production? I realize that I am four standard deviations outside of the norm on football, but between hyper commercialization, the obsessive over-celebration, the length of time between plays or actions... I just find it incredibly boring. I can't see how even longer commercial breaks are going to help sell the product.

PS - Let me point out that I love watching baseball on television, so it isn't an all sports or a professional sports problem, at least for me.

[MarsupialMadness]

How can anyone seriously sit down and watch the garbage that is a modern NFL television production? I realize that I am four standard deviations outside of the norm on football, but between hyper commercialization, the obsessive over-celebration, the length of time between plays or actions... I just find it incredibly boring. I can't see how even longer commercial breaks are going to help sell the product.

PS - Let me point out that I love watching baseball on television, so it isn't an all sports or a professional sports problem, at least for me.

Baseball is arguably the slowest sport on television.

The NFL doesn't need help selling the product - The product has been sold, and now it's all about maximizing revenues. 

[MarsupialMadness]

What's interesting about all this concusion talk is how the rule changes in the NFL are going to change the way people play the game and the way the game is taught... and while the perspective might be that this is making the game safer... it really might just be displacing the pain.  Look at Brandon Merriweather's comments following his one game suspension for hitting too high:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9...n-marshall-vows-target-opposing-players-knees

"I guess I just got to take people's knees out," Meriweather said Monday morning in the Redskins' locker room. "That's the only way. I would hate to end a guy's career over a rule, but I guess it's better other people than me getting suspended for longer.

"You just have to go low now, man. You've got to end people's careers. You got to tear people's ACLs and mess up people's knees. You can't hit them high anymore."


So, whether he is correct or not in saying that and taking that attitude... that is what's going theough the head of the NFL defender.  It's no wonder that we see many more ACL/MCL tears/sprains now than ever before.

[Pakuni]

What's interesting about all this concusion talk is how the rule changes in the NFL are going to change the way people play the game and the way the game is taught... and while the perspective might be that this is making the game safer... it really might just be displacing the pain.  Look at Brandon Merriweather's comments following his one game suspension for hitting too high:

http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/9...n-marshall-vows-target-opposing-players-knees

"I guess I just got to take people's knees out," Meriweather said Monday morning in the Redskins' locker room. "That's the only way. I would hate to end a guy's career over a rule, but I guess it's better other people than me getting suspended for longer.

"You just have to go low now, man. You've got to end people's careers. You got to tear people's ACLs and mess up people's knees. You can't hit them high anymore."


So, whether he is correct or not in saying that and taking that attitude... that is what's going theough the head of the NFL defender.  It's no wonder that we see many more ACL/MCL tears/sprains now than ever before.

Meriweather is an idiot who presenting a false choice, i.e. either he has to use his helmet as a weapon aimed at another player's head, or he has to intentionally try to take out knees. These, obviously, are not the only options, and I doubt Meriweather - a guy with a history of head shots and other transgressions - is a fair representation of your average NFL defender.

[Tugg Speedman]

Many of them, actually aren't on Netflix.  That's what troubles me about your comparisons, they seem to be missing some of the facts.    What is a "traditional" network...an over the air network?  That might be how you define it, but that's not how the industry defines them.  Follow the money.  Same thing goes with football.  Those shows on AMC, A&E, etc...follow the money.  Let's not forget some of those same experts predicted television would be gone by now.      And oh, by the way, Netflix and others are making so little money right now they can't afford to get into the sports game.  It is basically non fractionalized for a reason.  Could it change?  Yes.  Will the players that are spending so much money allow it to change without a massive fight?  You decide. 

You miss the point.  NetFlix produces its own shows (i.e., House of Cards, Arrested Development) and distributes it over the internet.  We don't need DTV or Comcast anymore to watch high quality dramas.  You can do that over the internet now. 

I read the NFL is close to signing a deal with Google to stream games live (presumably using YouTube as Google owns it).  If that happens, you do not need DTV or Comcast to watch live sports anymore.

Here in Chicago Gigabit service is starting to become available for residences.  That is 1,000 MPS. 

In a few years the world will have one big fat pipe of broadband for everything.  And once we are off the cable and satellite with those kinds of speeds, we will effectively have tens of thousands networks streaming live content and original dramas, on the 60'inch flat screen in 1080p in the living room without interruptions because of slow download speeds.  It will fractionalize the sports business like music and TV now. 

So, who replaces the NFL in 15 years?  Maybe I will be watching the Girls High School Cross Country network because my daughter is a runner.  Maybe I watch college tennis, or Indian Cricket, MU basketball, Junior cycling, Big Ten Soccer, MLB and on and on.  In this world, which does not exist now but is coming in a few years, I'm not forced to watch only what DTV and Comcast feed me.  I can pick from an endless supply of sports content based on my individual interests, 

I make more time for these sports by watching less NFL.  And when I do watch NFL and see a guy strapped to a backboard getting carried off the field, and Brett Favre forgetting his name and drooling on himself (see any current interview of John Mackey) I'll remind myself why it is not fun to watch people destroy their lives and why kids that come from families of means will view playing football as the equivalent to boxing.

That is my view of what is coming.  This world has less room for football.  Having this concussion argument just reminds me that I want to get away from the status quo.

[muwarrior69]

Football is the perfect television sport.  It thrives in a world of technology.  Horse racing and track & Field do not.  Boxing chose their own death (and even so, they are still making a lot of money on some PPV).  Baseball is a respectable second.

You need a sport with action, intensity, high speed, and a defined window of time (baseball doesn't have it).  Football has all of those.  It is also a minimal commitment of one game a week, usually on the weekend.  It is the most enlightened sports model and nothing else really comes close, especially in the media age.

Of your list from the 1950's, only two are still around and one of them is very much in the lead.  I'd love to see what is going to supplant it....nothing that is out there today.  Maybe a new sport comes along, but

I tend to disagree. There are moments in a baseball game that are intense with action and high speed. Nothing more exciting than an in the park home run or a player stealing home from 3rd base or witnessing a perfectly pitched game. Yeah the game can be dull at times but so is football. Out of the 60 minutes they play you actually see about 20 minutes of action; most of the game they're in the huddle. Now basketball is all action except when they're shooting free throws and even they can be nail biters.

[muwarrior69]

Real Sports also did a show linking head and spinal injuries to Lou Gehrig's disease. They also reported that the incidence for former NFL players was higher than the general population. They also noted that Gehrig got beaned 8 times in the head during his playing career.

[Pakuni]

I tend to disagree. There are moments in a baseball game that are intense with action and high speed. Nothing more exciting than an in the park home run

Which rarely happen (fewer than 20 times per season, on average)

or a player stealing home from 3rd base

Which happens even less often (nine times in all of 2012). Of the 36 attempts, 18 were the result of botched squeeze plays and 14 the result of double steals. The pure attempt the steal home happens almost never.

or witnessing a perfectly pitched game.

Which has happened 21 times in 133 years.

I have no issue with someone saying they prefer baseball to football, but you're reasoning here is akin to someone saying "I love football because there's nothing quite like a perfectly execute game-winning Hail Mary." I mean, yeah, these things happen, but they're far from routine parts of the game.

[brandx]

What is a "traditional" network...an over the air network?  That might be how you define it, but that's not how the industry defines them.  Follow the money.  Same thing goes with football.  Those shows on AMC, A&E, etc...follow the money.  Let's not forget some of those same experts predicted television would be gone by now.      And oh, by the way, Netflix and others are making so little money right now they can't afford to get into the sports game.  It is basically non fractionalized for a reason.  Could it change?  Yes.  Will the players that are spending so much money allow it to change without a massive fight?  You decide.  

Netflix's third-quarter earnings quadrupled from last year as its tally of U.S. streaming-video customers hit 31 million.

[jesmu84]

and here comes the high school problems...

http://espn.go.com/espn/story/_/id/9902116/report-details-concussion-risks-high-school-athletes

[brandx]

and here comes the high school problems...

http://espn.go.com/espn/story/_/id/9902116/report-details-concussion-risks-high-school-athletes

Not too surprising considering the equipment and coaching in HS.

[Pakuni]

Not too surprising considering the equipment and coaching in HS.

If anything, these numbers show the risk of concussion is really limited ... and that football isn't significantly more likely to cause a concussion than sports like lacrosse, wrestling, soccer or field hockey, and none of them are likely to cause a concussion ever.

The numbers show that for every practice or game, a high school football, players runs a .1 percent chance of suffering a concussion. Or, one concussion for every 1.1 concussions for every 1,000 games/practices. Them's pretty slim odds.