MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: PaintTouches on January 02, 2018, 01:08:00 PM
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I've had a lot of people ask for the plus/minus on court splits for Marquette players, but had 0 luck trying to automate the process. So here's the manual version for Big East play. I'll try to have the updated results of each game up within a day or two.
Without looking, can anyone guess who has the best +/- through 2 games? (Then feel free to look.)
https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/ (https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/)
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Surprised by Cain's numbers.
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I've had a lot of people ask for the plus/minus on court splits for Marquette players, but had 0 luck trying to automate the process. So here's the manual version for Big East play. I'll try to have the updated results of each game up within a day or two.
Without looking, can anyone guess who has the best +/- through 2 games? (Then feel free to look.)
https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/ (https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/)
Without looking, I'd guess that Sam has the best +/-
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Updated through the Nova game. Some interesting trends starting to show up.
https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/ (https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/)
For example, Heldt's played 23+ minutes in MU's wins, sub 13 minutes in the losses. That doesn't mean play Heldt more, as he was bad (in a +/- sense) against both X and Nova, but that the team may be at it's best with him on the floor a majority of the time.
Also, the past 2 games Rowsey is -15 in just under 57 minutes while Elliott is +5 in 59 minutes. Granted, they were Rowsey's worst games in a while, but I do think we will start seeing fewer Howard/Rowsey combos for long stretches going forward. Putting Elliott on the ball makes this a completely different team defensively.
As always, individual +/- stats are stupid and only tell you so much.
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At 143.8, Heldter Skeldter is the #1 offensively efficient player in the USA, per Pomeroy. Brunson is breathing his dust at #2. Say what you will about his abilities, but when in the game, Matty doesn't make a lot of mistakes.
Of course, his usage is almost nil, but this shows his hustle can be valued.
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At 143.8, Heldter Skeldter is the #1 offensively efficient player in the USA, per Pomeroy. Brunson is breathing his dust at #2. Say what you will about his abilities, but when in the game, Matty doesn't make a lot of mistakes.
Of course, his usage is almost nil, but this shows his hustle can be valued.
M2N was actually about Heldt
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Update bump with a new leader atop the board. You'll be pleasantly surprised.
https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/ (https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/)
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Update bump with a new leader atop the board. You'll be pleasantly surprised.
https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/ (https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/)
Did I miss the first, "Actually Markus' scoring run is bad for the team" take or is someone still searching for the ALL CAPS key to post it?
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Did I miss the first, "Actually Markus' scoring run is bad for the team" take or is someone still searching for the ALL CAPS key to post it?
Here you go...
https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=55306.msg978301#msg978301
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Here you go...
https://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=55306.msg978301#msg978301
Thanks! I knew I'd missed it. Not quite as scorching hot as I like my takes, but it'll do.
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Update bump. Two observations:
1) Heldt remains the barometer. 23+ minutes in wins, 13 mins or less in losses. +17 in wins, -28 in losses. Again, correlation is not causation, but the team is just better when he plays well. And he was particularly bad against Butler.
2) Lineups with Rowsey/Howard/Elliott are +22 in 57 minutes. Lineups with Rowsey/Howard/not Elliott are -13 in 65 minutes. I think we see Elliott in the starting lineup before the end of the season.
https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/ (https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/)
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Update bump. Two observations:
1) Heldt remains the barometer. 23+ minutes in wins, 13 mins or less in losses. +17 in wins, -28 in losses. Again, correlation is not causation, but the team is just better when he plays well. And he was particularly bad against Butler.
2) Lineups with Rowsey/Howard/Elliott are +22 in 57 minutes. Lineups with Rowsey/Howard/not Elliott are -13 in 65 minutes. I think we see Elliott in the starting lineup before the end of the season.
https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/ (https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/)
Wojo has shown to not change the starting lineup unless he is super desperate (Which is why we saw so much of Fischer starting and barley any of Rowsey last year)
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Wojo has shown to not change the starting lineup unless he is super desperate (Which is why we saw so much of Fischer starting and barley any of Rowsey last year)
Last year during the bye week, Wojo opened up every starting position to whoever practiced the hardest. Next game, Heldt took over for Fischer and JjJ never got off the bench. Three counterarguments would be (1) he wants the players to know their roles, (2) he will ride the hot hand and starting doesn't matter that much, and (3) how often has he truly had viable alternatives?
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Why is Heldt so damn inconsistent, all we need from that spot is strong D and maybe 10 pts and 6 rebounds a game Does he hate to lose like Markus and Sam do
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Why is Heldt so damn inconsistent, all we need from that spot is strong D and maybe 10 pts and 6 rebounds a game Does he hate to lose like Markus and Sam do
I doubt it's his competitiveness. He just isn't as good a player.
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Last year during the bye week, Wojo opened up every starting position to whoever practiced the hardest. Next game, Heldt took over for Fischer and JjJ never got off the bench. Three counterarguments would be (1) he wants the players to know their roles, (2) he will ride the hot hand and starting doesn't matter that much, and (3) how often has he truly had viable alternatives?
Which means they may look at changes after Monday. Good time to implement them.
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Why is Heldt so damn inconsistent, all we need from that spot is strong D and maybe 10 pts and 6 rebounds a game Does he hate to lose like Markus and Sam do
I think it is because we play different opponents. His game doesn't vary much, and so it is inconsistently successful, depending on who we play. He plays hard every game, but the results are sporadic.
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Greg Elliott is my favorite player on the team. He is a game changer. These stats further that notion.
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Update bump. Two observations:
1) Heldt remains the barometer. 23+ minutes in wins, 13 mins or less in losses. +17 in wins, -28 in losses. Again, correlation is not causation, but the team is just better when he plays well. And he was particularly bad against Butler.
https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/ (https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/)
Simple. When Heldt stays home on defense (Georgetown, Seton Hall, Wisconsin double downs), MU has its best defensive games. When he is pulled out 10-15 feet above the circle on high hedges, the vortex of this defense opens wide up. For example, SJU stayed home on defense last night with three in the paint and limited Nova to 18 PIP and took them to the wire.
If Wojo stays with his high pressure defense, play Heldt/Froling more with teams with bigs. Go small with Elliott and Cain against teams like Butler. I thought the short line up with Sam at center got MU back in the game versus Nova.
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Simple. When Heldt stays home on defense (Georgetown, Seton Hall, Wisconsin double downs), MU has its best defensive games. When he is pulled out 10-15 feet above the circle on high hedges, the vortex of this defense opens wide up. For example, SJU stayed home on defense last night with three in the paint and limited Nova to 18 PIP and took them to the wire.
If Wojo stays with his high pressure defense, play Heldt/Froling more with teams with bigs. Go small with Elliott and Cain against teams like Butler. I thought the short line up with Sam at center got MU back in the game versus Nova.
I agree.
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Greg Elliott is my favorite player on the team. He is a game changer. These stats further that notion.
Careful, if you make that sort of claim people will jump up your ass. :P
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Last year during the bye week, Wojo opened up every starting position to whoever practiced the hardest.
That was the desperation I was talking about.
Wojo has definitely has viable options. Rowsey should have been starting day 1 last year, Fischer and JJJ should have been taken off the starting rotation when it became apparent they were hurting the team early in games.
This year its very apparent that John >>>>> Heldt in most games.
Starting does matta. playing with an inferior lineup for the first 4 minutes of each game is not a smart thing to do.
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That was the desperation I was talking about.
Wojo has definitely has viable options. Rowsey should have been starting day 1 last year, Fischer and JJJ should have been taken off the starting rotation when it became apparent they were hurting the team early in games.
This year its very apparent that John >>>>> Heldt in most games.
Starting does matta. playing with an inferior lineup for the first 4 minutes of each game is not a smart thing to do.
Starting mattas in the same way FTs matta, sure on some microscopic level they do but really doesn't impact the game. The first four minutes are not more important than any other four minute stretch.
But John has not been better than Matt most of the season. Matt's offense is much more efficient, their rebounding is similar, but Matt schools John in defense at this point. In 92 defensive possessions Matt has allowed 80 points for a very average .870 dPPP. In 39 defensive possessions, Theo has allowed 37 points for a very poor .949 dPPP, mostly due to his high foul rate. Theo gets the highlight blocks but Matt is the much better defender at this point.
Harry is the one that I think should be losing minutes to Theo at this point. Unless his shot starts going down, his defense is even worse than John's and while his rebounding is better, it's not better enough to justify his time.
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Update bump:
https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/ (https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/)
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Does Cam not get a plus minus for the DePaul game?
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So ... Markus scored 89 points in consecutive games against Providence and Nova ... and he was only a combined +3.
He plays mediocre hoops against SH and DePaul but is a combined +9.
Interesting stat.
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+/- is a bit deceiving in basketball, because unlike the sports where it’s a meaningful metric (e.g. hockey), you don’t have specific lines you rotate through a game. In other words, Marcus could be on the floor in one of 7 or 8 combinations of players, whereas in hockey, if you’re the center, most of your time on the ice is with your line mates on the wings.
So I’m not going to read too much into stand-alone +/-, but what would be more enlightening is a 2D matrix that shows +/- for pairs of players, i.e. how does Marcus compare when he and AR are on the floor together vs. when he’s on the floor with Greg or Sacar.
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So I’m not going to read too much into stand-alone +/-, but what would be more enlightening is a 2D matrix that shows +/- for pairs of players, i.e. how does Marcus compare when he and AR are on the floor together vs. when he’s on the floor with Greg or Sacar.
I've been trying to make my spreadsheets filter-able, but Wordpress is awful and wants me to pay up to get that feature. Still thinking about it.
For now, just let me know if you have any requests:
Rowsey, no Howard: +19 in 56 minutes
Howard, no Rowsey: +11 in 51 minutes
Pretty similar overall. But this is my focus:
Rowsey/Howard/Anim: -15 in 73 mins
Rowsey/Howard/Cain: -6 in 35 mins
Rowsey/Howard/Elliott: +21 in 58 mins
Moar Elliott, please.
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Another update bump:
https://painttouches.com/2018/01/22/big-east-tiers-1-22-18-edition/ (https://painttouches.com/2018/01/22/big-east-tiers-1-22-18-edition/)
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I've been trying to make my spreadsheets filter-able, but Wordpress is awful and wants me to pay up to get that feature. Still thinking about it.
For now, just let me know if you have any requests:
Rowsey, no Howard: +19 in 56 minutes
Howard, no Rowsey: +11 in 51 minutes
Pretty similar overall. But this is my focus:
Rowsey/Howard/Anim: -15 in 73 mins
Rowsey/Howard/Cain: -6 in 35 mins
Rowsey/Howard/Elliott: +21 in 58 mins
Moar Elliott, please.
Doesn't it matter who the opponents were? For example, did AR, MH and GE happen to play together more against crappy teams or against excellent teams, and wouldn't that have made a difference?
Not ripping on the research, just genuinely curious.
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If we were only talking about a one or two game sample, sure, but we're 7 games in, so all the lineups have had opportunities against "good" and "bad" teams alike.
What does matter much more than opponent is time on court, that's why I include it, or else it has no real perspective. For example, all but 2 of the Rowsey/Howard/Elliott minutes (56) have come in the last 5 games, and the team is +18 in that span. Rowsey/Howard/Anim has fewer minutes the last 5 games (50 min) and is a -25.
This stat does not explain the why and shouldn't be used as an end all, be all, but I do think tracking trends like that one does have a lot of value.
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If we were only talking about a one or two game sample, sure, but we're 7 games in, so all the lineups have had opportunities against "good" and "bad" teams alike.
What does matter much more than opponent is time on court, that's why I include it, or else it has no real perspective. For example, all but 2 of the Rowsey/Howard/Elliott minutes (56) have come in the last 5 games, and the team is +18 in that span. Rowsey/Howard/Anim has fewer minutes the last 5 games (50 min) and is a -25.
This stat does not explain the why and shouldn't be used as an end all, be all, but I do think tracking trends like that one does have a lot of value.
Thanks for running the numbers.
I don't know whether it has value or not, but I do think it's interesting to see and talk about.
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Thanks for running the numbers.
I don't know whether it has value or not, but I do think it's interesting to see and talk about.
I agree that this is interesting. I like the tangible metrics but I also love the intangible. I know 7 games is a reasonable sample size, I am curious what the numbers look like after another 4 or 6 games? Does G. Elliott improve in those games to make these numbers even more convincing? I really like the Freshman I think they all are going to be huge contributors and one or more might wind up being really, really good. Warriors will beat X!
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Drew Cannon has made himself a comfortable living being Brad Stevens' right-hand quant man, whose job essentially translates into generating lineup combinations. It's amazing that there aren't more younger coaches who are catching onto this.
In fact, isn't this all something that the fabled SportVu system covers, i.e. analyzing favorable lineups, positioning, etc.? As I recall, Duke and Marquette were two of the first college programs to sign up, so I've always assumed that Wojo is/was a believer in quant and SportVu may have been part (read: not major, but some iota of consideration) of attracting him to Milwaukee.
Can anyone confirm whether MU is still using SportVu or did that go the way of the Hokie?
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Update bump.
https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/ (https://painttouches.com/2018/01/02/marquette-plus-minus-leaderboard/)
As to your question Benny, the BMO Bradley Center does have SportVu and MU has access to that, but I am not positive about Kasten. I had an interview lined up with the staff 2 years ago, but it fell through and I got lazy AF, so I never rescheduled. While SportVu doesn't cover +/- per se, it does provide a lot of spacing data, which can be translated to lineup info.
For example, MU's death lineup (Rowsey/Howard/Elliott/Cain/Hauser) was a -7 in 3:54, giving up 17 points and scoring 10 in 7 possessions. Watching those 4 minutes, X feasted with no shot blocker down low. Hauser/Cain did not provide any help on drivers, so it was either a layup, dunk or kickout for an open 3. SportVU would provide more tangible evidence on distance to nearest help defender, distance traveled by driver, speed on rotations. All that jazz.