Wisconsin

[JWags85]

I am not implying it, I am saying it is true. I was invited to a memorial and meal at a Country Club this Saturday. Almost 100 people invited - less than 30 have accepted. Almost all sent regards and said they were not yet ready to go out. Kohls just opened and when I went to the grocery store (Kohls is in same strip mall), there were 6 cars in the Kohls parking lot. People took Evers suggestions very seriously while we were on full lockdown and a good percentage of people are still doing the same. Still very little dine-in restaurant activity.

The majority of people are still taking this very seriously.

I can assure you that is not the case in the vast majority of the Milwaukee area. I’ve seen the exact opposite in Wauwatosa, Milwaukee, Cedarburg, Mequon, and WFB. It’s not completely pre-COVID, but it’s far closer to normal than the ghost town, unofficial lockdown you’re mentioning. I don’t know a single person of any age saying “I’m not ready to” or “I don’t feel safe” to go out. The lakefront yesterday was BUZZING

[mu_hilltopper]

There's no doubt .. the science, data, and policy send confusing signals.

Wisconsin .. is doing well, it really is.  How and why, I just don't know.

22 states have increasing cases.  TX, FL, NC, AZ, SC, AR, NV, OK, OR have sharply spiking 7-day averages over the past 10 days.   

Why not Wisconsin?  I really don't know.   Plenty of anecdotes of people in large groups .. people not wearing masks .. all the things necessary the science tells us will spike cases.   I don't know why Wisconsin (and so many other states) are materially different than the states that are spiking. 

Are midwesterners better handwashers?  Are we stifling our sneezes?  Maybe our collective immune systems are tuned better?

Maybe some day, science talking people will explain.

[pbiflyer]

Here in Florida we have a large contingency of “it’s a hoax” people that actively go out of their way to not wear masks or social distance. I suspect that is one reason we are seeing the spike.

But as others have said, it will be interesting to see the research studies.

I work with several state governments in the East. Many of the ones in the south have flat out said they aren’t interested in collecting data that may help in that research, sadly including Florida.

[warriorchick]

Watching the local news while reading this thread, and they just said that yesterday in Wisconsin, they had the lowest number of new cases in the past two weeks.

[Its DJOver]

See that's the thing about people continuing to follow an unofficial "safer at home" mindset.  You can't see them when you go out because they're... safer at home.  My folks are admittedly part of a "larger risk" age group, but they're still both working from home, buying all non-food items through Amazon, racing through grocery stores even during non peak hours (their personal best time is 11 minutes), only ordering take-out/non contact delivery.  I belong to one of the statically safest age groups and I haven't gotten non-takeout since pre-safer at home.  There's also significant data showing that spread is less likely in outdoor environments while social distancing, so I don't think you can say that because some people showed up to the lake, that means that other people aren't still taking this extremely seriously.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

I have been to restaurants a few times since they have opened.  They are nowhere near pre-shut down levels.  And yes while most aren't wearing masks in stores, I view as the third to half I see as a good thing.  And many workplaces, including mine, require them now when you aren't in your workspace.  I haven't returned to the gym, and likely will not until this is over, and in talking to those who are still going, the place has lost about a third of its members.

I still think many people are being cautious.  Or maybe it's the economy.  Likely a bit of both. 

[wadesworld]

I have been to restaurants a few times since they have opened.  They are nowhere near pre-shut down levels.  And yes while most aren't wearing masks in stores, I view as the third to half I see as a good thing.  And many workplaces, including mine, require them now when you aren't in your workspace.  I haven't returned to the gym, and likely will not until this is over, and in talking to those who are still going, the place has lost about a third of its members.

I still think many people are being cautious.  Or maybe it's the economy.  Likely a bit of both.

Yup. I know a ton of restaurants that continue to be carry out only even though they can be open at 25% capacity now. My guess is their carry out business is doing so well that if they opened up dine in at 25% their carry out goes down more than they’d gain from dine in, plus they can leave a number of staff members on unemployment. Total guess though.

My experience in stores had been probably 2/3 masks. But it definitely depends on where you are. From the stores I’ve been in it seems less crowded, but also with working from home I can go at different times than normal, which is probably the case for many people and spreads the crowd out throughout the day. Masks required at work when away from the desk, along with a number of other measures in place. Gyms and pools have time slots people need to sign up for with limited capacity. Etc.

[Skatastrophy]

Milwaukee's testing data is wonky - https://city.milwaukee.gov/coronavirus

Nearly no tests performed for the last week, with a huge number of them being positive. I wonder how this data lag impacts state reporting. As goes the big cities with this kind of thing, so goes the region.

[Hards Alumni]

Milwaukee's testing data is wonky - https://city.milwaukee.gov/coronavirus

Nearly no tests performed for the last week, with a huge number of them being positive. I wonder how this data lag impacts state reporting. As goes the big cities with this kind of thing, so goes the region.

So, what is likely happening is that people aren't getting tested because they are not showing symptoms. 

Or, we have been lucky and we have suppressed the virus enough through lock downs etc.

Will this hold?  Of course, it won't.  Don't be silly.  We aren't even close to being done here.

[mu03eng]

So, what is likely happening is that people aren't getting tested because they are not showing symptoms. 

Or, we have been lucky and we have suppressed the virus enough through lock downs etc.

Will this hold?  Of course, it won't.  Don't be silly.  We aren't even close to being done here.

Or, and hear me out, Occam's Razor has been true for over 100 years and continues to be true and there is a data entry issue.

[Hards Alumni]

Or, and hear me out, Occam's Razor has been true for over 100 years and continues to be true and there is a data entry issue.

I struggle to understand what you're disagreeing with here.

[mu03eng]

I struggle to understand what you're disagreeing with here.

You came up with a very elaborate (in my eyes) explanation for why the data was wonky and I'm saying there are much more simple answers for why the data is wonky.

[Hards Alumni]

You came up with a very elaborate (in my eyes) explanation for why the data was wonky and I'm saying there are much more simple answers for why the data is wonky.

Such as?

[rocky_warrior]

You came up with a very elaborate (in my eyes) explanation for why the data was wonky and I'm saying there are much more simple answers for why the data is wonky.

I feel like you both missed the * at the bottom of the graphic that literally says "Over the past 2 weeks there has been a delay in tests being reported and therefore this [sic] graphs may falsely inflate the percent positive metric.  Data will be updated as it is received"

Now, the reason for delay is up for debate, but the wonky data seems clearly explained by the footnote.

[Hards Alumni]

I feel like you both missed the * at the bottom of the graphic that literally says "Over the past 2 weeks there has been a delay in tests being reported and therefore this [sic] graphs may falsely inflate the percent positive metric.  Data will be updated as it is received"

Now, the reason for delay is up for debate, but the wonky data seems clearly explained by the footnote.

I sure did.

[mu03eng]

I feel like you both missed the * at the bottom of the graphic that literally says "Over the past 2 weeks there has been a delay in tests being reported and therefore this [sic] graphs may falsely inflate the percent positive metric.  Data will be updated as it is received"

Now, the reason for delay is up for debate, but the wonky data seems clearly explained by the footnote.

I absolutely did, but that won't stop me from claiming victory.

[rocky_warrior]

I absolutely did, but that won't stop me from claiming victory.

Never let the truth get in the way of a good story!

[tower912]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46dcQE2mzPI

[Galway Eagle]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46dcQE2mzPI

Fantastic song

[tower912]

One of my favorite bands.

[mu03eng]

One of my favorite bands.

Fantastic live and it sucks we can't see them at Irishfest this year

[tower912]

Saw them on March 9 in a little club.   And then....pffft

[Skatastrophy]

I feel like you both missed the * at the bottom of the graphic that literally says "Over the past 2 weeks there has been a delay in tests being reported and therefore this [sic] graphs may falsely inflate the percent positive metric.  Data will be updated as it is received"

Now, the reason for delay is up for debate, but the wonky data seems clearly explained by the footnote.

I missed it too.

<tinfoil>
I wonder if this explains why Wisconsin is doing a "really good job," it's a delay in testing reports. The previous two weeks, at any given time, will trend down because Milwaukee hasn't reported yet. By the time numbers get revised up nobody remembers what they were originally so they're just happy to see them come down.
</tinfoil>

[mu03eng]

I missed it too.

<tinfoil>
I wonder if this explains why Wisconsin is doing a "really good job," it's a delay in testing reports. The previous two weeks, at any given time, will trend down because Milwaukee hasn't reported yet. By the time numbers get revised up nobody remembers what they were originally so they're just happy to see them come down.
</tinfoil>

I demand the Fair and Benevolent Scoop Overlords create a TinFoil wrapper functionality that instantly makes the enclosed text become shiny silver and a "wave" graphic effect.

[Hards Alumni]

I missed it too.

<tinfoil>
I wonder if this explains why Wisconsin is doing a "really good job," it's a delay in testing reports. The previous two weeks, at any given time, will trend down because Milwaukee hasn't reported yet. By the time numbers get revised up nobody remembers what they were originally so they're just happy to see them come down.
</tinfoil>

Well, and the reverse can be true as well.  We're patting ourselves on the back about how well we are doing, and headed back to more opening... but the lag in testing really shows where we were a few days ago.  By the time we decide we have a problem, we are already a few days into it... and then there will be debate about what we do to slow the spread again... which is more delay... and then by the time we decide what to do the doubling of cases has gone for at least a week.  Depending on the R0 during that time, we could be talking about a few dozen problems, or thousands.

This is the thing we will struggle with as a society in the coming weeks/months.  Look no further than what is happening in Beijing currently... and before someone leaps down my throat, obviously, we aren't China and there isn't an analog for Beijing in the US save maybe NYC.  But it illustrates how quickly things can get out of hand, and that even with a fast reaction (like China) things will be bad.

Now, I'm not saying all of this will happen for sure, but I'm not sure we have truly learned our lesson on how to deal with this sort of virus, yet.