Point Guard Problems

[JD]

This thread is about Point Guard Problems, not Center problems or any other position.  Yes Washington is an athletic team, but i tend to think I can hope for a little more than 6 assist and 1 HUGE turnover late in the game by our starting point guard.  Maybe a bit to much to ask.

[Skatastrophy]

This thread is about Point Guard Problems, not Center problems or any other position.  Yes Washington is an athletic team, but i tend to think I can hope for a little more than 6 assist and 1 HUGE turnover late in the game by our starting point guard.  Maybe a bit to much to ask.

You want more than a 6:1 assist to turnover ratio?

Yes, that is too much to ask.

[tower912]

This thread is about Point Guard Problems, not Center problems or any other position.  Yes Washington is an athletic team, but i tend to think I can hope for a little more than 6 assist and 1 HUGE turnover late in the game by our starting point guard.  Maybe a bit to much to ask.

Check A/PG stats for the last few years.    Check Junior's A/TO ratio so far this year.    Junior is doing exactly what you want a pass-first PG to do.    I would like his FT's and defense to be better, but I can say that about anybody. 

[JD]

You want more than a 6:1 assist to turnover ratio?

Yes, that is too much to ask.

Numbers are misleading!  Should we go over his stellar defense last night?

[Dr. Blackheart]

6 assists, 1 turnover.   Most athletic PG he has guarded so far this year.   I fail to see a concern here. 

Abdul Gaddy:  Led Pac 10 in A/TO ratio with 3:1 last season, shot 40.6% on treys, McD's Burger Boy, #2 rated PG coming out of HS

Abdul Gaddy last night:  1:1 A/TO ratio, shot 2-11 from the floor and 0-3 from three.  

I wonder if the UW boards are asking why he played so poorly against MU's dime-a-dozen PG?

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

Blue seems to have a major problem when he drives the lane.  He drives, and has no outlet in mind until he is all the way committed and in a bad position to shoot.  This happened at least 3 or 4 times yesterday and just infuriates me.

I agree, but I think (and hope) that is a product of youth and still learning the small nuances.

He's basically McNeal as a frosh/soph. All over the court, causes headaches for the opposition, teammates love him... but it can be hard to watch.

He could use a little more weight/strength to help him finish in traffic (part of being an upperclassmen) and he needs to pick his spots a little better (Jimmy Butler was fantastic at that).

Honestly, he's light years ahead of last year already, and he could make more strides by March.

Still a very high ceiling.

[GGGG]

Check A/PG stats for the last few years.    Check Junior's A/TO ratio so far this year.    Junior is doing exactly what you want a pass-first PG to do.    I would like his FT's and defense to be better, but I can say that about anybody. 

Yes, but to be fair, I was trying to balance out his positive offensive production with his negative defensive production.

I think it is absolutely silly that some people are suggesting that we keep Junior off the floor in crunch time because some of the reasons you point out.  His A/TO ratio is very good.

[MUMac]

Blue seems to have a major problem when he drives the lane.  He drives, and has no outlet in mind until he is all the way committed and in a bad position to shoot.  This happened at least 3 or 4 times yesterday and just infuriates me.

I haven't completely analyzed this yet, but here is a perception I am starting to have on Blue.  It appears to me that when he penetrates from the side or baseline is when he really get's into trouble.  When he comes from the wing, to the elbow and key, he see's the court better.  His attempts are better and his passing is better.  To me, he tends to get in trouble and turns the ball over more from the side and baseline.

[tower912]

Reading the recap of the Badger/Green Bay game, it says that Taylor is en route to setting an NCAA career record with a 3.25 A/TO ratio.    Junior is averaging 3-1 so far this year.   We don't have a PG problem. 

[GGGG]

Reading the recap of the Badger/Green Bay game, it says that Taylor is en route to setting an NCAA career record with a 3.25 A/TO ratio.    Junior is averaging 3-1 so far this year.   We don't have a PG problem. 

Again...if you go back to my first post, he is a liability on the defensive end.  So offensively I agree he is not a problem. 

[tower912]

He is no more a liability on the defensive end than was Diener or Acker or Buycks.  The only true lockdown defensive PG's I can remember in the last 25 years are James and Miller.   Junior isn't a lockdown defender. 

[GGGG]

He is no more a liability on the defensive end than was Diener or Acker or Buycks. 

Well, they aren't on the team any longer so I'm not sure how this is relevant.  (And Buycks was a much better defender than Junior.)

Look, I understand what you are saying.  That his offense trumps his defense, and in the end I agree with you.  And actually off the ball he is pretty good.  On ball is where he has problems. 

[Dr. Blackheart]

I rewatched the game last night, and I only saw two blow by's when Junior was guarding the point.  Wroten blew by Junior twice in a row from the right side, where it looked like Junior was trying to force him baseline into the help defense in the paint that wasn't there.  Gaddy hit his only two shots when Junior was out, and Vander was guarding him, otherwise Junior held him to an "0 for".  Wroten was a tough match-up for Junior at 6'5", but I really did not see that Junior played poorly defensively on review, and in fact, had a key steal in the last minute.  I was surprised, as I tend towards Sultan's POV.

That said, CD was completely right in his DJO assessment, as to me, he was much worse on D upon review.  Just outmatched and wandering too much.  

[Henry Sugar]

Look, I understand what you are saying.  That his offense trumps his defense, and in the end I agree with you.  And actually off the ball he is pretty good.  On ball is where he has problems. 

I'm not sure I agree with this, mostly because I believe the value of assists are overstated in comparison to making your own shots efficiently.  Junior has many games where his offense does trump his defense, but I don't think it happens consistently yet.

[ATL MU Warrior]

I'm not sure I agree with this, mostly because I believe the value of assists are overstated in comparison to making your own shots efficiently.  Junior has many games where his offense does trump his defense, but I don't think it happens consistently yet.

Can you elaborate on this a little?

Are you saying that on a statistical basis an individual player's offensive performance is driven by efficient scoring vs assists?

Because I'm not sure how, in the context of a team with everybody understanding and playing their role, you could ever arrive at what you stated above.  Some players do not need to score to make a major impact on the success of the team.

[ATL MU Warrior]

I rewatched the game last night, and I only saw two blow by's when Junior was guarding the point.  Wroten blew by Junior twice in a row from the right side, where it looked like Junior was trying to force him baseline into the help defense in the paint that wasn't there.  Gaddy hit his only two shots when Junior was out at Vander was guarding him, otherwise Junior held him to an "O for".  Wroten was a tough match=-up for Junior at 6'5", but I really did not see that Junior played poorly defensively on review, and in fact had a key steal in the last minute.  I was surprised, as I tend towards Sultan's POV.

That said, CD was completely right in his DJO assessment, as to me, he was much worse on D upon review.  Just outmatched and wandering too much. 

I've always been of the opinion that DJO plays crappy D.  The most glaring instances from the UW game were against Ross, who would be a tough matchup for anybody so I kind of gave him a pass for that game.

[Henry Sugar]

Can you elaborate on this a little?

Are you saying that on a statistical basis an individual player's offensive performance is driven by efficient scoring vs assists?

Because I'm not sure how, in the context of a team with everybody understanding and playing their role, you could ever arrive at what you stated above.  Some players do not need to score to make a major impact on the success of the team.

A team wins a game when it is more efficient than its opponents.  Efficiency is Points Produced / Possessions Used.

On the offensive end, points can be produced in several ways.  (I think this is the full list)

• Making a shot, assisted or not
• Assisting someone else with a basket
• Getting an offensive rebound that leads to a basket
• Making free throws

 
Assisting someone else with a basket is only one aspect of producing points.  Then you need to consider the relative importance of those assists.  Junior gives six assists that lead to twelve points or eighteen, but he doesn't get 100% credit for producing all those points.  The player that actually MADE the shot deserves credit too!  The end result is that Junior gets credit for some portion of the points from those assists, but not all.   Generally, Junior gets more credit for producing points from assists than anyone else on the team. 

In short, giving assists is only one aspect of producing points, and even then, a player only gets partial credit for the points that are produced.  Including assists, Junior's offense does outshine his defense when he makes ~2-3 FG and ~3 FT / game. Those are not unreasonable expectations for a player that is on the court ~25 min/game, even a primarily pass-first PG.

[Canned Goods n Ammo]

I rewatched the game last night, and I only saw two blow by's when Junior was guarding the point.  Wroten blew by Junior twice in a row from the right side, where it looked like Junior was trying to force him baseline into the help defense in the paint that wasn't there.  Gaddy hit his only two shots when Junior was out at Vander was guarding him, otherwise Junior held him to an "O for".  Wroten was a tough match=-up for Junior at 6'5", but I really did not see that Junior played poorly defensively on review, and in fact had a key steal in the last minute.  I was surprised, as I tend towards Sultan's POV.

That said, CD was completely right in his DJO assessment, as to me, he was much worse on D upon review.  Just outmatched and wandering too much. 

You bring up a great point. Just because a guy gets past Junior, doesn't necessarily mean it's terrible defense.

If Junior lets the ball handler go wherever he wants, then obviously that is awful.

But, if he forces the handler to his weak hand/direction (scouting report) and expects help on that side, well, then its not as bad as it looks on TV. The defensive rotation wasn't good, which made Junior look bad.

MU plays an aggressive rotation defense where no player is on an island.

With all of this said, we know Junior isn't the quickest guy, and we has seen opposing guards cross him up. I don't think it's a huge problem, but I'm sure it's something Buzz watches and will play the match-ups as necessary.

[NotAnAlum]

There were a couple of aspects of Junior's game that were off Tuesday.  He did get beat off the dribble at some critical times.  But as others have said these PGs were both very good.  Also they were supposed to be great shooters so Junior was probably told "you can't give them space at the 3 point line".  If you are going to play up a a guy who is pretty quick you're going to get beat.  You can't take away everything from a great player.
Junior didn't carve up the defense with a bunch of drives and dishes.  Again the guys playing him were pretty good.  I do beleive this is where Junior excels and we do lose a lot in points from the 5 when Junior isn't in to deliver the ball.
The 3rd factor could have been Juniors mental mind set.  I beleive Junior lacks confidence in general.  When he gets that confidence you see him play like he did late last year.  Sitting him for the Bagder game (while he may have had it coming) may have damaged his confidence in the game immediately following it Tuesday night.  I think he'll get it back hopefully Saturday night in a slowing game that his drive and dish will be more necessary in.