MUScoop
MUScoop => Hangin' at the Al => Topic started by: CrackedSidewalksSays on August 23, 2014, 12:15:06 AM
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Big East Player Projections Updated with Duane Wilson & Other Red Shirts
The Value Add Scholarship Table (review or edit google sheet here (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qbx3qDXliihkPNrQfjOIAJzJaX5dYyv8tKh9R4mMqDg/edit#gid=394925277)) continues to be built, with the addition of key Red Shirt freshman like Duane Wilson. I am posting the updated Big East players here, and a second post will give the projected result of every MU game, to follow-up on the discussion from my recent post (see it here, (http://www.muscoop.com/index.php?topic=44626.0) sorry I checked out on business prior to the discussion and did not see the responses until today).
A couple of notes on our players in response to questions:
1. Some questioned how some of our guys can have 0.00 value, and please note that a 0.00 Value Add means you are not better than a good bench player (8th or 9th man) on a major conference team. Those players have value, they just are not better than the typical replacement player who would come off the bench for them.
2. Why wasn't Duane Wilson listed in the previous post since he certainly adds value? I have to keep Value Add apples-to-apples, and since I did not have a good list of red shirt freshmen from last season, I couldn't simply add Wilson for Marquette until I was able to put together a comprehensive lists for all teams in the country.
3. How could the John Dawson we saw DOMINATE Georgetown (http://www.jsonline.com/sports/goldeneagles/marquette-tops-georgetown-in-ot-b99187841z1-241230091.html)have a 0.00 Value Add? Dawson not only won the Georgetown game for MU, but you could argue we would have lost to DePaul at the end of February without him, and he gave MU almost enough to upset Providence in March.Value Add is just a baseline to start a discussion, and if we saw an opposing player with a very low offensive rating of 84 who had very few steals on defense he would be nowhere near having value and so I can't subjectively give a player I've watch more like Dawson a higher rating, even though I have faith in him.
4 Can Marquette exceed these ratings? Definitely - we have seen enough of Steve Taylor's post game to know that if he is finally healthy he should be much better than a 0.10 Value Add, and as good as Derrick Wilson's defense is he can also have value if the 25,000 shots he took in the offseason makes him just an average offensive player - so the potential for both of them as well as Luke Fischer performing well above their projections could create a nice team around Deonte Burton and Matt Carlino and other likely contributors.
Here are the projections for all Big East players.
edit: follow link for table
Source: Big East Player Projections Updated with Duane Wilson & Other Red Shirts (http://www.crackedsidewalks.com/2014/08/big-east-player-projections-updated.html)
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1) You left out Aaron Bowen for Georgetown, He's a redshirt senior this year.
2) Jessie Govan will not be a freshman till 2015.
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Thank you! And just so you know you or anyone else who catches anything can actually edit the google sheet here (just make sure to type in column D, because I only move items with notes there to the main database)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qbx3qDXliihkPNrQfjOIAJzJaX5dYyv8tKh9R4mMqDg/edit#gid=394925277
I just updated those two, so they now read:
Bowen, Aaron 0.16 added as RS senior 4 Sr 6'6" BE Grad 2013 Georgetown 0.12
Govan, Jessie not yet 394 fixed, pushed back to next year Prep 6'10" BE Georgetown 3 393 Prep NA
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Thank you! And just so you know you or anyone else who catches anything can actually edit the google sheet here (just make sure to type in column D, because I only move items with notes there to the main database)
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Qbx3qDXliihkPNrQfjOIAJzJaX5dYyv8tKh9R4mMqDg/edit#gid=394925277
I just updated those two, so they now read:
Bowen, Aaron 0.16 added as RS senior 4 Sr 6'6" BE Grad 2013 Georgetown 0.12
Govan, Jessie not yet 394 fixed, pushed back to next year Prep 6'10" BE Georgetown 3 393 Prep NA
Again, fantastic work Bama. I only found two errors in the BEast, I marked them in the comments column. Patrick Auda of Seton Hall is going overseas next season. Also, Felix Balamou of St. John's was missing.
I put together a similar database for my own reference. I blog a little bit in my spare time. It's child's play compared to yours, but in case any of the data is helpful to you, I'd be happy to share.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1nLpL5d5NJZCFYSalbtm2hf55RbjQhw2L_j33AOp70Pg/edit#gid=0
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Let's face it, MU's ability to run and stretch the floor went out the door when Blue and McKay left and Du was hurt, to go along with Mayo's attitude. MU's versatility was severely hampered as a result and Buzz was left with a slow, lumbering, non-dribble drive team who could not create their own shots.
He had two choices: Go with the upperclassmen or go rebuilding. He chose wrong. He only used Burton as a change of pace to come in and chuck to get MU back in the game...then to get pulled so the upperclass could grind out (or not) the end.
JJJ, MU's highest rated recruit in decades, played 5 minutes total in the last nine games. He and Taylor were out the door in January. The only dribble drive option for Buzz was Mayo. His paint touch offense obsession was not built for last year's team without a seam buster he was willing to play. That will be better this year as will the individual numbers as The Duke offense has a much higher value on spacing.
That said, MU's only two big man options have had ortho issues. One is never the same after an injury, the question is how close to normal they can get back to. A big if. .500 is about right with that unbalance. Wish MU had McKay.