Kolek planning to go pro
Still a dog that badly lags the overall market. Throw a dart at the stack tables and you'll probably do better.
You started this thread on April 29th of last year. Since then AAPL is up 11.4%, while the S&P 500 is up 4.7%.I hope that you aren't in charge of your family's finances. If you are, then stick to target date funds. There's no shame in letting someone else take the reigns if you don't have enough time to learn about something this important.
You might be surprised how prominent and successful he is as a financial market expert.
A crapposting "expert" on the internet is just a crapposter.
Did you actually read the April post? Because if you did, you would realize this does not begin to offset the crap show Apple has been the last 5 years.
I'd enter at 90. Great price for a company with that much cash on hand. Plus the pain of change for all of those people in the Apple ecosystem is too high, they'll buy the crap out of the iPhone 7 when it comes out. AAPL will be doing great by Christmas, imo.Even if Apple isn't up again by EoY, with as much cash as they have I believe that they'll be up in the next 10 years. But I'm a boring long-term value investor. You guys might be looking for returns on different timeframes than I am.
Except he does it in real life with his and others' $$.
Or it is an Obama is leaving rally
Only reason it even near 52 week high is the overall market is enjoying a massive Trump rally that has dragged it screaming and kicking higher. (Or it is an Obama is leaving rally, take your pick)
Yeah, my response is on the first page. I did exactly what I said I would and did alright for myselfI think that your posts in this thread display a fundamental misunderstanding of what Apple has been great at.1. Hiring the best tech talent available: I'm in the industry and my last two companies have been ones that people will kill themselves to get into. One a recently public company in Chicago, now at a place that's still operating in the shadows. Apple continues to poach the tech talent that they want. The guys they've picked up are excellent and they stay at Apple for the rest of their careers. Only Google holds a torch to that. People leave FB, Amazon, & Microsoft as quickly as they have built a name for themselves for somewhere better.2. Never being the 1st through the wall: Apple has a long history of never innovating, and that's what's made them successful. They wait for others to be 'first through the wall' and then they perfect the usability and industrial design of those products and make them even more successful than the original. Apple, but like Blizzard (now paired up with Activision), frequently enters markets as a big disruptor but rarely defines a new market.With the cash that they have on hand and the moat they've built with the tech talent only they recruit and retain, I still believe that Apple is an excellent value in the long term.Regarding Thiel's comment: There's a reason he constrained his comments to the iPhone and not the rest of Apple's businesses. Smartphone innovation has stalled, but Apple has the resources to fund plenty more market-disrupting products/services. Way more than Thiel and YCombinator could hope to fund.BTW: It's anecdotal based on personal connections, but YCombinator does a terrible job at identifying tech talent. They've had their unicorns, but I wouldn't invest with them.
This is an excellent history lesson of what Apple was. What have then invented in the last 5 years? Hint, why has their suck underperformed so badly in the last 5 years?
Five years is generous of you, thanks!First of all, underperforming by what measure? Apple has run up 98% to the S&P 500s 73%. Apple released their smartwatch and continue to dominate smartwatch market share, but they (and the other players) vastly overestimated the size of that pie. That could have been a big analyst miss.The iCloud release 5 years ago was not the first of its kind for mobile devices, but Apple marketed it better. It could be a catalyst for their current drive into the services space. We'll see how they compete as a television producer against Amazon & Netflix. The iCloud was expected to be a huge source of revenue, whereas it turned into a nice recurring income stream. That could have been a big analyst miss.In the past 5 years Apple released both the first iPad Mini and iPad Pro, growing their slice of the pie in the tablet market. While they continue to dominate the tablet market, people aren't continuing to buy them. The analysts probably didn't see that coming.Apple's iPhone 7 has disrupted the cellular market yet again, dragging all of the other manufacturers to getting rid of their headphone jacks. I'm not a fan, but I'm not surprised that other manufacturers are following suit.Apple's Airpods (those bluetooth headphones) were released just under a month ago. I've been seeing about (anecdotally on Chicago's public transport) a 10% market penetration of other manufacturer's ugly bluetooth headphones. I expect the Airpods to be a hit with commuters in the coming year. I'm usually wrong with these short-term guesses.Phones/Laptops/Desktops/Tablets are ripe for disruption like the CRT TV market was in the late 90s. There is parity for all of the players involved. We'll see what happens next, and I expect Apple to perfect the user experience of whatever seems to have a little traction. Again, they have the best talent and a pile of cash. I'm keeping my AAPL position, even though it's a little tempting to lock in my 30% gain and call it a win.
So, Mr. Potato is ether Peter Lynch, Dicks Strong, or Warren Buffett, ai na?
Yeah, my response is on the first page. I did exactly what I said I would and did alright for myselfI think that your posts in this thread display a fundamental misunderstanding of what Apple has been great at.1. Hiring the best tech talent available: I'm in the industry and my last two companies have been ones that people will kill themselves to get into. One a recently public company in Chicago, now at a place that's still operating in the shadows. Apple continues to poach the tech talent that they want. The guys they've picked up are excellent and they stay at Apple for the rest of their careers. Only Google holds a torch to that. People leave FB, Amazon, & Microsoft as quickly as they have built a name for themselves for somewhere better.
Again above is the way it was, not isTesla Is Snatching Apple’s Stars to Make Itself the New Applehttps://www.wired.com/2017/01/tesla-snatching-apples-stars-make-new-apple/IF YOU DON’T follow the ins and outs of Silicon Valley personnel moves, you might have missed the news. Even if you saw it, it may not have made much sense. Chris Lattner is leaving Apple for Tesla? Chris who?
Airpods? ... they are a bust. like the watch, and Apple TV before it. This is a $625 billion company, four times the size of all the companies headquartered in WI combined. Apple needs a BIG product that will sell tens of billions every year. So I'll conceded all of those were good products (many of which I have and enjoy) but collectively if they don't generate enough revenues to matter, which is why I call them a bust. It is all rounding error stuff for Apple.
The answer is VR or Driverless and both will be blockbusters ... by someone else.
Again, I bought Apple as a long term value play more similar to KO. I think you're looking at them like they're going to continue being a growth company.
Here is my issue with this. Apple's valuation is still along the lines of a growth stock, not a value stock. You're paying a hefty premium for a value stock. It needs growth to work at these numbers.(The "pure" indices split the S&P 500 into "growth" and "value.")Apple12-month trailing p/e = 14.4912-month forward p/e = 13.32Price/Book = 4.95Price/Sales = 3.0S&P 500 Pure Value12-month trailing p/e = 13.9512-month forward p/e = 12.68Price/Book = 1.29Price/Sales = 0.62S&P 500 Pure Growth12-month trailing p/e = 25.4412-month forward p/e = 20.27Price/Book = 3.95Price/Sales = 2.53
KO looks like a growth equity right now according to your S&P split. So does JNJ. Do you consider them to be as deeply flawed as AAPL? Because purely by the numbers if I were forced to choose between only those 3 I would be adding to my AAPL position even though it's overpriced right now.Coca-Cola CompanyTrailing P/E 24.79Forward P/E 20.65Price/Book (mrq) 6.76Price/Sales (ttm) 4.15Johnson & JohnsonTrailing P/E 20.12Forward P/E 1 16.07Price/Sales (ttm) 4.35Price/Book (mrq) 4.29
Pure Growth has 115 members AAPL, KO and JNJ are not among themPure Value has 116 members AAPL, KO and JNJ are not among them eitherTo be clear, S&P identified 115 stocks as clearly have growth characteristics and 116 as clearly having value characteristics. The other 273** stocks in the S&P 500 are mixed. AAPL, KO and JNJ are in this group.So KO and JNJ have growth valuation but are not clearly growth stocks. (** = did you know the S&P 500 actually has 504 stocks in it?)