Is the NCAA tournament a “crapshoot”

[StillAWarrior]

I don’t think anyone has come close to suggesting that the NCAA tournament is completely random.

But saying that upsets and unexpected results are a “”possibility” is the understatement of the year.

There are always upsets and unexpected results, even when high seeds end up in the Final Four. Part of the crapshoot is that you never know where those upsets are going to strike.

And when you get to games involving two teams in the top 32 seeds in this age of parity, there are not many true upsets, even though they are described that way when a lower seed wins. Results like that are quite common during the regular season, but they don’t eliminate the losers from competition.

I am typically surprised that in spite of the many millions of brackets completed and submitted, nobody gets particularly close to a perfect bracket. Often everyone is eliminated by the end of the first round. This speaks to the element of unpredictability in the tournament.

[MU82]

I am typically surprised that in spite of the many millions of brackets completed and submitted, nobody gets particularly close to a perfect bracket. Often everyone is eliminated by the end of the first round. This speaks to the element of unpredictability in the tournament.

IIRC (and I might not be), the year George Mason went to the Final Four (2006) somebody in one of the big national contests did have a perfect bracket (or at least perfect through that point). The kicker was that he actually thought he was picking George Washington but accidentally picked George Mason. It was something dopey like that.

[StillAWarrior]

IIRC (and I might not be), the year George Mason went to the Final Four (2006) somebody in one of the big national contests did have a perfect bracket (or at least perfect through that point). The kicker was that he actually thought he was picking George Washington but accidentally picked George Mason. It was something dopey like that.

Well, that got me curious...

The NCAA says the record was set in 2019 when some guy from Columbus had a perfect bracket through 49 games (i.e., just into the S16). They claim he was the first person documented to make it out of the second round with a perfect sheet which broke the prior record of 38 games (i.e., halfway through the second round).

[MU82]

Well, that got me curious...

The NCAA says the record was set in 2019 when some guy from Columbus had a perfect bracket through 49 games (i.e., just into the S16). They claim he was the first person documented to make it out of the second round with a perfect sheet which broke the prior record of 38 games (i.e., halfway through the second round).

Well, as I said, I might not have remembered correctly ... and it appears I was right about that!

Just did some googling and I found this from the 3/28/06 NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/28/sports/college-basketball-oops-a-few-end-up-afloat-in-the-pool.html

Know anyone who has the Final Four intact in the office pool? No way.

After all, not one top-seeded team made it. The last time that happened was 1980. Who could have picked the Patriots -- not Tom Brady & Company, but the ones from George Mason?

Was there a secret to making sense of possibly the most unpredictable N.C.A.A. tournament? For Russell Pleasant, a 46-year-old software engineer from Omaha, it took a lucky mistake.

When he filled out his bracket earlier this month, he thought George Washington would reach this weekend's Final Four. Instead, he ended up picking George Mason, round after round after round, all the way to Indianapolis.

Now, he finds himself a rare survivor among millions of broken hearts with busted brackets across the nation. In ESPN.com's 2006 Men's College Basketball Tournament Challenge, Pleasant had one of the four entries among three million with U.C.L.A., Louisiana State, Florida and George Mason in the Final Four.

Last season, 4,172 people picked all four teams in ESPN.com's pool. But last year's Final Four featured a more predictable lineup: two top-seeded teams, North Carolina and Illinois; a fourth-seeded team, Louisville; and a fifth-seeded team, Michigan State.

At cbs.sportsline.com, none of the two million brackets submitted this year had all four teams. In the Yahoo Sports pool, just one of more than a million entered had all four. That entry was submitted by a contestant named Tim McKenna.

"One night I was watching some of the games, and I saw George Washington," Pleasant said last night in a telephone interview. "I said that team is good; I like them."

Same first name, different last name. Oh, well.

"Man, all those Georges." he said. "I knew they were all from D.C. I like Georgetown, too."

In November, Pleasant watched George Mason take on Creighton on television. Even though Creighton won, 72-52, Pleasant said he remembered thinking that George Mason was pretty good.

"I thought I had George Mason in the Sweet 16," he said.

But it was the other way around: he had eighth-seeded George Washington in the Round of 16 and 11th-seeded George Mason in the Final Four. George Washington lost to Duke in the second round.

By the way, Pleasant picked Florida to defeat U.C.L.A. in the championship game. He remains in contention to win the top prize, $10,000.

Mike Breen, a mathematician at the American Mathematical Society in Providence, R.I., said the chances of correctly picking the Final Four in ESPN.com's contest this year were about 1 in 750,000. Last year, he said, roughly 1 in 700 brackets included the correct four teams.

[StillAWarrior]

Well, as I said, I might not have remembered correctly ... and it appears I was right about that!

Just did some googling and I found this from the 3/28/06 NYT:

https://www.nytimes.com/2006/03/28/sports/college-basketball-oops-a-few-end-up-afloat-in-the-pool.html

Know anyone who has the Final Four intact in the office pool? No way.

After all, not one top-seeded team made it. The last time that happened was 1980. Who could have picked the Patriots -- not Tom Brady & Company, but the ones from George Mason?

Was there a secret to making sense of possibly the most unpredictable N.C.A.A. tournament? For Russell Pleasant, a 46-year-old software engineer from Omaha, it took a lucky mistake.

When he filled out his bracket earlier this month, he thought George Washington would reach this weekend's Final Four. Instead, he ended up picking George Mason, round after round after round, all the way to Indianapolis.

Now, he finds himself a rare survivor among millions of broken hearts with busted brackets across the nation. In ESPN.com's 2006 Men's College Basketball Tournament Challenge, Pleasant had one of the four entries among three million with U.C.L.A., Louisiana State, Florida and George Mason in the Final Four.

Last season, 4,172 people picked all four teams in ESPN.com's pool. But last year's Final Four featured a more predictable lineup: two top-seeded teams, North Carolina and Illinois; a fourth-seeded team, Louisville; and a fifth-seeded team, Michigan State.

At cbs.sportsline.com, none of the two million brackets submitted this year had all four teams. In the Yahoo Sports pool, just one of more than a million entered had all four. That entry was submitted by a contestant named Tim McKenna.

"One night I was watching some of the games, and I saw George Washington," Pleasant said last night in a telephone interview. "I said that team is good; I like them."

Same first name, different last name. Oh, well.

"Man, all those Georges." he said. "I knew they were all from D.C. I like Georgetown, too."

In November, Pleasant watched George Mason take on Creighton on television. Even though Creighton won, 72-52, Pleasant said he remembered thinking that George Mason was pretty good.

"I thought I had George Mason in the Sweet 16," he said.

But it was the other way around: he had eighth-seeded George Washington in the Round of 16 and 11th-seeded George Mason in the Final Four. George Washington lost to Duke in the second round.

By the way, Pleasant picked Florida to defeat U.C.L.A. in the championship game. He remains in contention to win the top prize, $10,000.

Mike Breen, a mathematician at the American Mathematical Society in Providence, R.I., said the chances of correctly picking the Final Four in ESPN.com's contest this year were about 1 in 750,000. Last year, he said, roughly 1 in 700 brackets included the correct four teams.

Thanks for digging that up. I made a half-hearted effort to find what you had mentioned and just settled for the NCAA article that I linked. But yes, picking the correct final four is very different than having a perfect bracket up through the FF which, apparently, has never been done on a documented bracket.

[rocky_warrior]

To get the definitive answer, I asked ChatGPT:

Funny, I asked Bard yesterday, and it created a similar answer, talking about the random nature of upsets, but only going as far as to say it's often referred to as a "crapshoot".

[wisblue]

Funny, I asked Bard yesterday, and it created a similar answer, talking about the random nature of upsets, but only going as far as to say it's often referred to as a "crapshoot".

Did it say that people who refer to the tournament as a “”crapshoot” are told they are wrong by people who think they mean it is literally, mathematically the same as shooting craps?

[lostpassword]

Funny, I asked Bard yesterday, and it created a similar answer, talking about the random nature of upsets, but only going as far as to say it's often referred to as a "crapshoot".

I wonder if scoop is in the training data set for any of these LLMs and if so what irreparable damage may be inflicted upon future generations.

[MU82]

Did it say that people who refer to the tournament as a “”crapshoot” are told they are wrong by people who think they mean it is literally, mathematically the same as shooting craps?

Nailed it.

[5DollarPitcher]

BREAKING NEWS: KenPom number 1 overall rated team wins crapshoot tournament

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

BREAKING NEWS: KenPom number 1 overall rated team wins crapshoot tournament

Well they are number 1 now. I think they were 4 when the tourney started.

And in the same tournament, the #6 overall kenpom team lost to the #312 team, a result that I'd guess less than 1% of brackets predicted. An unpredictable result, i.e. one of  the defintions of a crapshoot (the most commonly used one).

The crapshoot meme was never about the championship, it was about the bracket as a whole

[BM1090]

Well they are number 1 now. I think they were 4 when the tourney started.

Correct. They stayed at number 4 until the S16 win over Arkansas. They moved to 1 after that game.

[wadesworld]

Also, UCONN winning the national title is not breaking news at all.

[MU82]

Well they are number 1 now. I think they were 4 when the tourney started.

And in the same tournament, the #6 overall kenpom team lost to the #312 team, a result that I'd guess less than 1% of brackets predicted. An unpredictable result, i.e. one of  the defintions of a crapshoot (the most commonly used one).

The crapshoot meme was never about the championship, it was about the bracket as a whole

Oh, TAMU, don't be ruining 5Buck Chuck's narrative by stating actual facts.

[5DollarPitcher]

BREAKING NEWS: KenPom number 1 overall rated team wins crapshoot tournament

Isn’t this a fact?

[MU82]

Isn’t this a fact?

See TAMU’s response. Learn something instead of thinking you know everything.

[wadesworld]

Since we’re ranked number one by composite scores, and the Tourney is definitively not a crapshoot, can we just hang our 2024 NCAA Tournament champions banner already? What’s the wait?

[Lennys Tap]

Well they are number 1 now. I think they were 4 when the tourney started.

And in the same tournament, the #6 overall kenpom team lost to the #312 team, a result that I'd guess less than 1% of brackets predicted. An unpredictable result, i.e. one of  the defintions of a crapshoot (the most commonly used one).

The crapshoot meme was never about the championship, it was about the bracket as a whole

It’s all math - in a tournament the size of the NCAAs minor (and more rarely) major upsets happen. Most Scoopers considered it a major upset that we didn’t make the Sweet 16. If you think that a 54% free throw shooter missing a free throw is surprising then it was - I don’t. 16s beating 1s almost never happen, but they can in any sport or in life itself. Buster Douglas beats Tyson, Namath and the Jets beat the Colts, it rains when it isn’t supposed to, you’re involved in a terrible car accident - unpredictable things happen all the time. So (by one definition anyway) life is a crapshoot.

[MarquetteDano]

It’s all math - in a tournament the size of the NCAAs minor (and more rarely) major upsets happen. Most Scoopers considered it a major upset that we didn’t make the Sweet 16. If you think that a 54% free throw shooter missing a free throw is surprising then it was - I don’t. 16s beating 1s almost never happen, but they can in any sport or in life itself. Buster Douglas beats Tyson, Namath and the Jets beat the Colts, it rains when it isn’t supposed to, you’re involved in a terrible car accident - unpredictable things happen all the time. So (by one definition anyway) life is a crapshoot.

I remember doing the math at some point that if you had a 67% chance of predicting every game (which is amazing), with 67 games played,  you had like a 1 in 450 billion chance of getting your bracket correct.

[5DollarPitcher]

How is a perfect bracket the inverse of a crapshoot as so many seem to imply

[tower912]

1/crapshoot.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

It’s all math - in a tournament the size of the NCAAs minor (and more rarely) major upsets happen. Most Scoopers considered it a major upset that we didn’t make the Sweet 16. If you think that a 54% free throw shooter missing a free throw is surprising then it was - I don’t. 16s beating 1s almost never happen, but they can in any sport or in life itself. Buster Douglas beats Tyson, Namath and the Jets beat the Colts, it rains when it isn’t supposed to, you’re involved in a terrible car accident - unpredictable things happen all the time. So (by one definition anyway) life is a crapshoot.

Okay, so you agree?

[WhiteTrash]

IMHO, if you view the stock market as a crapshoot, then you probably think the NCAA is a crapshoot.

[TAMU, Knower of Ball]

How is a perfect bracket the inverse of a crapshoot as so many seem to imply

No one has implied that.

The original "crapshoot" meme was brought up because there was an argument about if coaching candidates should be judged solely by their success in March. Namely, is it wise to  hire candidates like Andy Enfield, Archie Miller, or recently Dusty May because of one tournament run.   Those who proported the crapshoot meme were pointing out that solely evaluating a coach on 2 to 4 games is probably not wise when a much larger sample size is available.

[MarquetteDano]

How is a perfect bracket the inverse of a crapshoot as so many seem to imply

There is def middle ground here. If a coach always had a top 10 team over 10 years and never made a final four... that is a coach who doesnt build March teams.

Conversely, look at all of the great March coaches who have lost early in the tourney with a great team.