COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[4everwarriors]

Y'all get yo chance in November ta vote yea or nay. Dat's democracy and dat's da way wee do it here. God bless America, aina?

[GooooMarquette]

Guys, we get it. There are a handful of posters who just can't reign in their disdain for Trump. There are a ton of outlets on the internet to share your mockery of him. This is not the forum for that.

And if you're going to post tweets or stories about him, at least make an attempt to share accurate summaries. This shouldn't be hard for a board full of adults.

For what it's worth, I view it as a serious medical condition, and recognize that he may be every bit as unhappy as the people he hurts or belittles. I feel bad for the guy - I really do. Honestly, I am more angry with the Cabinet, VP and much of Congress for failing to recognize the obvious, and giving him no choice but to move out of the office and hopefully get the treatment he needs.

And as someone who has a very intimate knowledge of NPD, I know that's what it takes - some external action that you can't control, essentially forcing you to face reality and get treatment.

[skianth16]

You ain't from round these parts, is ya?

I usually ignore it. But man, the last page or two was too much. Decent discussions about important topics get derailed so fast.

[skianth16]

For what it's worth, I view it as a serious medical condition, and recognize that he may be every bit as unhappy as the people he hurts or belittles. I feel bad for the guy - I really do. Honestly, I am more angry with the Cabinet, VP and much of Congress for failing to recognize the obvious, and giving him no choice but to get the treatment he needs.

And as someone who has a very intimate knowledge of NPD, I know that's what it takes - some external action that you can't control, essentially forcing you to face reality and get treatment.

It has zero relevance to this conversation.

[Hards Alumni]

Guys, we get it. There are a handful of posters who just can't reign in their disdain for Trump. There are a ton of outlets on the internet to share your mockery of him. This is not the forum for that.

And if you're going to post tweets or stories about him, at least make an attempt to share accurate summaries. This shouldn't be hard for a board full of adults.

I agree.

[GooooMarquette]

It has zero relevance to this conversation.

This conversation is about COVID-19...right? And what both state and federal officials are doing about it...right?

Unless you disagree with either of the above, it has everything to do with this conversation.

[shoothoops]

That's not at all what was in the article from the tweet you shared. It says the decision to not move forward with GM was made by FEMA. The uncertainty over how many ventilators the country needs due to the constant changes in data seems to be playing a big role in the lack of decision-making here.

"The decision to cancel the announcement (about the GM/Ventec partnership to make ventilators), government officials say, came after the Federal Emergency Management Agency said it needed more time to assess whether the estimated cost was prohibitive."

"Those issues appeared to come to a head on Wednesday afternoon, when FEMA told the White House that it was premature to make a decision."

"Targets have changed by the hour, officials said, as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Department of Health and Human Services, the Food and Drug Administration, which approves the use of medical devices, and the White House try to figure out how many ventilators to request and how much they should cost."

FEMA reports to Secretary of Homeland Security which is a part of the President's Cabinet.

Trump has specifically stated today why he was invoking the Defense Production Act.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1243557418556162050?s=19

https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1243629529224171522?s=19

https://twitter.com/Grace_Segers/status/1243630923515670534?s=19

[GooooMarquette]

Guys, we get it. There are a handful of posters who just can't reign in their disdain for Trump. There are a ton of outlets on the internet to share your mockery of him. This is not the forum for that.

And if you're going to post tweets or stories about him, at least make an attempt to share accurate summaries. This shouldn't be hard for a board full of adults.

Are you saying the Mayo Clinic definition of Narcissistic Personality Disorder is inaccurate? Please enlighten us.

[GooooMarquette]

Not a good milestone, but we just passed 100,000 diagnosed cases.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

United States

Coronavirus Cases:
100,514

[Hards Alumni]

http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths/

Results

Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,584) ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674). The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May. We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6.


Conclusions and Relevance

In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity. These are urgently needed given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away. The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.

I hope this is right and we can keep it under 100k.

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Guys, we get it. There are a handful of posters who just can't reign in their disdain for Trump. There are a ton of outlets on the internet to share your mockery of him. This is not the forum for that.

And if you're going to post tweets or stories about him, at least make an attempt to share accurate summaries. This shouldn't be hard for a board full of adults.

I am pretty f*cking liberal.

And I agree with you 100%. Mods have mentioned it numerous times.

[GooooMarquette]

http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths/

I hope this is right and we can keep it under 100k.

Keeping it under 100,000 would be nice under the circumstances...but predicted peaks by state are expected between the second week of April through May? Oof. That means we are still two weeks away from the earliest of the peaks, and will still be dealing with significant numbers of death into early summer. Yikes.

[GooooMarquette]

I am pretty f*cking liberal.

And I agree with you 100%. Mods have mentioned it numerous times.

Totally agree. Accurate summaries only.

[skianth16]

FEMA reports to Secretary of Homeland Security which is a part of the President's Cabinet.

Trump has specifically stated today why he was invoking the Defense Production Act.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1243557418556162050?s=19

https://twitter.com/peterbakernyt/status/1243629529224171522?s=19

https://twitter.com/Grace_Segers/status/1243630923515670534?s=19

FEMA reporting into the cabinet doesn't mean Trump made the decision to not move forward with the initial GM proposals, though. From all the sources you shared, it sounds like FEMA wasn't confident in GM's ability to deliver on their proposals. So when FEMA made the decision to continue negotiations and vet additional vendors, Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to end the back and forth and get the process moving. I didn't see Trump backing out of negotiations because of costs mentioned anywhere.

[Coleman]

http://www.healthdata.org/research-article/forecasting-covid-19-impact-hospital-bed-days-icu-days-ventilator-days-and-deaths/

I hope this is right and we can keep it under 100k.

From the link:

"The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths."

Fat chance

[skianth16]

Are you saying the Mayo Clinic definition of Narcissistic Personality Disorder is inaccurate? Please enlighten us.

You know damn well that's not even close to what I'm saying.

[GooooMarquette]

From the link:

"The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths."

Fat chance

Yeah, that is a pretty optimistic assumption. It would take a 100% unified message from DC and all the governors to have a chance...and even then there are going to be people who will defy the orders.

[MU82]

Confirmed cases of COVID-19 and deaths because of it still increasing here in NC.

Governor just came out with stay-at-home requirement.

[Coleman]

Keeping it under 100,000 would be nice under the circumstances...but predicted peaks by state are expected between the second week of April through May? Oof. That means we are still two weeks away from the earliest of the peaks, and will still be dealing with significant numbers of death into early summer. Yikes.

It says number of deaths per day would shrink to under 10 by July 1st, and then decreasing down to zero. That is actually earlier than I would have thought.

The bulk of the messiness will be from April to early June.  It will vary by state. By the end of a horrific April, New York will be mostly past this. Wisconsin's wave won't hit until late May or early June.

[GooooMarquette]

You know damn well that's not even close to what I'm saying.

I simply posted the definition in response to another post, so that everyone could judge how relevant they feel it is to the conversation. If that objective, accurate definition isn't what you objected to, then I assume your rage was addressed at someone else.

Anyhow, I am past it, and have already made several posts about the US infection total, and the projected final death toll. Feel free to follow suit.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Keeping it under 100,000 would be nice under the circumstances...but predicted peaks by state are expected between the second week of April through May? Oof. That means we are still two weeks away from the earliest of the peaks, and will still be dealing with significant numbers of death into early summer. Yikes.

Which was/is the problem with all the patchwork decisions.  There are states which still haven't shutdown so this thing is just going to roll along. 

What we are seeing out of Italy--another very bad day in terms of deaths--I'm more and more convinced of the validity of the 23-24 day cycle from infection to resolution. Lombardy was shut down March 8th/9th, and the rest of the country not until the 13th. So they are going to face very high numbers until at least the first week of April, and then hopefully start to see the improvements from the lockdown after that.

[shoothoops]

FEMA reporting into the cabinet doesn't mean Trump made the decision to not move forward with the initial GM proposals, though. From all the sources you shared, it sounds like FEMA wasn't confident in GM's ability to deliver on their proposals. So when FEMA made the decision to continue negotiations and vet additional vendors, Trump invoked the Defense Production Act to end the back and forth and get the process moving. I didn't see Trump backing out of negotiations because of costs mentioned anywhere.

“It sounds like” is a frequent phrase from you when you manufacture your own conclusions which tend to be in a very consistent way. Trump has spent a great deal of time today, yesterday l, etc...lamenting the high cost of ventilators. They backed out over costs not questioned inability to deliver the goods. Trump specifically said he wants GM to make them.

[skianth16]

“It sounds like” is a frequent phrase from you when you manufacture your own conclusions which tend to be in a very consistent way. Trump has spent a great deal of time today, yesterday l, etc...lamenting the high cost of ventilators. They backed out over costs not questioned inability to deliver the goods. Trump specifically said he wants GM to make them.

It sounds like I was right about negotiations with FEMA not going well and Trump wanting to expedite the process. 

[jesmu84]

DPA should have been invoked 2 weeks ago (or more like 1 month ago). At least for masks, gloves, gowns, other PPE, let alone ventilators

[warriorchick]

I didn't see this on here, but this article on how Dyson designed a production-ready ventilator in ten days was posted by a super-lefty Facebook friend of mine.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/26/tech/dyson-ventilators-coronavirus/index.html


I didn't have the heart to tell her that she has capitalism to thank for that.