Cautionary Tale

[NersEllenson]

A lot has been made of my post thread:  I hope Buzz Williams leaves MU after this year.  Here is an article that speaks to my concern. Instead of Duke and NC as nearby competitors  - think of Wisconsin and Michigan State - MU being situated between 2 Hall of Fame Caliber coaches...both with lots of recent tourney success.

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/story/14667646/nc-state-fans-must-realize-theyre-the-ugly-duckling

[GGGG]

Hold on....just six months ago *you* were saying that he would lead us to multiple final fours.  Now you are saying that we should lower our sights??? 

Which is it???

[HoopsMalone]

Wisconsin is not even close to the caliber of Duke/UNC.  MSU really isn't either but you could make a plausible case that they are close.

Not a good analogy.  

[NersEllenson]

Hold on....just six months ago *you* were saying that he would lead us to multiple final fours.  Now you are saying that we should lower our sights??? 

Which is it???

I still believe Buzz will get MU to a Final Four.  We are in year 3 Sultan.  I like the prospects for next year's team - A LOT.  I'm not going to put a fork in this year's team yet either - I could see them making the Sweet 16.  

Not sure where the article I linked would suggest I think we should lower our sights - but I could see a scenario where Buzz takes us to 5 straight NCAA's and if he doesn't get to an Elite 8 or better, some fans will complain.

[NersEllenson]

Wisconsin is not even close to the caliber of Duke/UNC.  MSU really isn't either but you could make a plausible case that they are close.

Not a good analogy.  

I agree that Wisconsin is a stretch to compare to a UNC or Duke, but under Bo Ryan, they have been a very solid/upper echelon program.  I guess the overriding point, however, to those analogies is that there are some definite challenges a coach faces with regard to trying to recurit to Marquette.

[GGGG]

I still believe Buzz will get MU to a Final Four.  We are in year 3 Sultan.  I like the prospects for next year's team - A LOT.  I'm not going to put a fork in this year's team yet either - I could see them making the Sweet 16.  

Not sure where the article I linked would suggest I think we should lower our sights - but I could see a scenario where Buzz takes us to 5 straight NCAA's and if he doesn't get to an Elite 8 or better, some fans will complain.

Nice little box o' false logic you have built yourself.

[ChicosBailBonds]

 

Not sure where the article I linked would suggest I think we should lower our sights - but I could see a scenario where Buzz takes us to 5 straight NCAA's and if he doesn't get to an Elite 8 or better, some fans will complain.

Of course....we've seen it with other regimes at MU as well.  Some fans put it all on the NCAA Tournament results.  Hank lived through that, Majerus never got us there, Deane suffered from it and recruiting, and another guy was often criticized for not going far enough.  Were you one of those that complained about him?   

[Jam Chowder]

A lot has been made of my post thread:  I hope Buzz Williams leaves MU after this year.

Which begs the question... why bother to make a new thread?

[Boone]

As disappointing as this season's been, I'm expecting us to be just as average next year. Point guard play is the primary concern. Cadougan's an OK backup, but he'll likely start next season and he's nothing more than a middle-of-the-road (at best) BE point with zero offensive ability. I already envision wishing we had Buycks -- and that's saying something, given how subpar his game and bball IQ are.

[ChicosBailBonds]

As disappointing as this season's been, I'm expecting us to be just as average next year. Point guard play is the primary concern. Cadougan's an OK backup, but he'll likely start next season and he's nothing more than a middle-of-the-road (at best) BE point with zero offensive ability. I already envision wishing we had Buycks -- and that's saying something, given how subpar his game and bball IQ are.

PG is by far my greatest fear next year.  If we get solid play there, we'll be pretty good, but I share your concerns.  Can JC be the guy for a full year, as the starter.  Can he keep defenses honest by chipping in 6 to 8 points a game?  Can you play defense 30 minutes a game at a Big East level? 

College basketball...PG driven.

[cheebs09]

PG is by far my greatest fear next year.  If we get solid play there, we'll be pretty good, but I share your concerns.  Can JC be the guy for a full year, as the starter.  Can he keep defenses honest by chipping in 6 to 8 points a game?  Can you play defense 30 minutes a game at a Big East level? 

College basketball...PG driven.

I've been more impressed with Junior's offense the last few games. He seems to be much more aggressive going to the basket and finishing. Earlier in the year he'd get to the basket, but could not finished. Now he is getting fouled or finishing or both. Hopefully he can develop a bit of a jumper, even just mid range would make him a ton more difficult to defend.

[Boone]

Junior hasn't attempted one 3 since conference play began. He's going to have to develop some kind of an outside shot, but I got a bad feeling that what we see is pretty much a finished product.

On a side note, shows what a joke the summer league was as Junior was named the MVP.

[ATL MU Warrior]

Junior hasn't attempted one 3 since conference play began. He's going to have to develop some kind of an outside shot, but I got a bad feeling that what we see is pretty much a finished product.

On a side note, shows what a joke the summer league was as Junior was named the MVP.

I don't see what's wrong with Junior not attempting something at which he's probably not going to have a high rate of success.  Makes me think he's playing smart more than anything which is something we really lack at the guard position this season. 

And how can you think that somebody who's played all of 30 D1 games is a finished product?  That's a joke right?

After a summer spent working on his shot, he's easily a 8-10PPG scorer next year. 

[willie warrior]

As disappointing as this season's been, I'm expecting us to be just as average next year. Point guard play is the primary concern. Cadougan's an OK backup, but he'll likely start next season and he's nothing more than a middle-of-the-road (at best) BE point with zero offensive ability. I already envision wishing we had Buycks -- and that's saying something, given how subpar his game and bball IQ are.

I would not write Cadougan off as having zero offensive ability. He does not need to score when he is usually in the game with Crowder, DJO, Butler and sometimes even Buycks. Wioth 4 scorers on the floor, his role is to get the ball to them. Next year, he should average 6 to 8 a game.

Hell we have had some outstanding past PG's that did not score much--Tony Miller and Mandy Johnson come to mind, and I am sure there have been others.

[Boone]

ATL MU Warrior, Junior's outside game has long been a weakness. So, if he wasn't already working on his shot last summer then what's he waiting for? And if he was -- and this year's performance is what's come from it -- then I'm not impressed. He's almost 21 years old, not 7, and has been playing ball for probably 2/3s of his life. If he hasn't peaked by now, he's close.

[ATL MU Warrior]

ATL MU Warrior, Junior's outside game has long been a weakness. So, if he wasn't already working on his shot last summer then what's he waiting for? And if he was -- and this year's performance is what's come from it -- then I'm not impressed. He's almost 21 years old, not 7, and has been playing ball for probably 2/3s of his life. If he hasn't peaked by now, he's close.

Yeah sure.  Every basketball player is done getting any better by the time they are 21.  Got it. 

[ringout]

Junior hasn't attempted one 3 since conference play began. He's going to have to develop some kind of an outside shot, but I got a bad feeling that what we see is pretty much a finished product.

On a side note, shows what a joke the summer league was as Junior was named the MVP.

It's his first full year in D1.  Give me a break.  While you may be right eventually, making that prediction after one year is premature.  History is filled with guys who had lackluster 1st seasons, going on to have good careers. 

What I really do question is the waste of a season lat year.  Should have been redshirted.

[Skatastrophy]

ATL MU Warrior, Junior's outside game has long been a weakness. So, if he wasn't already working on his shot last summer then what's he waiting for? And if he was -- and this year's performance is what's come from it -- then I'm not impressed. He's almost 21 years old, not 7, and has been playing ball for probably 2/3s of his life. If he hasn't peaked by now, he's close.

It's obvious that since the time of Cadougan's injury he's been working on his dribble-drive and finishing amongst the trees.  He's been having some success with it during the BEast season both scoring and drawing fouls.  We didn't see a lick of that before this year.

Remember when he came on board at MU and how much weight he had to lose?  And then recovering from an achilles injury (which some folks never do)?  I'm pumped that he has his agility and balance back!

If he works on his shot this summer he will become a formidable point guard. 

[Wade for President]

He's almost 21 years old, not 7, and has been playing ball for probably 2/3s of his life. If he hasn't peaked by now, he's close.

Hmmm.  Boone, I don't think Wes got that memo.

[NavinRJohnson]

Hmmm.  Boone, I don't think Wes got that memo.

Nor did Wade. Anyone else remember when he was too short, and couldn't shoot well enough to be a lottery pick?

[GGGG]

Boone, you have completely discounted any value that experience gives to a player.  It's not just a factor of age.

[Boone]

Hey, AtL MU Warrior, do you not recall Dominic James? He peaked at 19. 

I really hope the rest of you guys are right, I'm just not optimistic about his ability. 

[StillAWarrior]

Boone, you have completely discounted any value that experience gives to a player.  It's not just a factor of age.

I wish it was...I'd be coming into my own right about now...

[tower912]

Hey, AtL MU Warrior, do you not recall Dominic James? He peaked at 19. 

I really hope the rest of you guys are right, I'm just not optimistic about his ability. 

Hey, you found one.   Congrats.   Now I will take nearly every other player in MU history to show that players get better as they gain experience.     Or just the ones who made the NBA since I started at MU and you can contemplate where they were 30 games into their career.   Tony Smith, Jimmy Mac, Amal, Crawford, Wade, Novak, Diener, Wes, Lazar.   Were any of them a finished product 30 games in?    How about Jerel? (all time leading scorer)  Ooze?    JFB?     Give the kid a chance.   Like Otule, he has made a lot of progress this year.   He will be better next year. 

[Golden Avalanche]

Hey, you found one.   Congrats.   Now I will take nearly every other player in MU history to show that players get better as they gain experience.     Or just the ones who made the NBA since I started at MU and you can contemplate where they were 30 games into their career.   Tony Smith, Jimmy Mac, Amal, Crawford, Wade, Novak, Diener, Wes, Lazar.   Were any of them a finished product 30 games in?    How about Jerel? (all time leading scorer)  Ooze?    JFB?     Give the kid a chance.   Like Otule, he has made a lot of progress this year.   He will be better next year. 

I think everyone is losing sight of what Boone is getting at. There's a bit of defensiveness which is shading the responses.

Boone's point is that from what he's seen, and others are likely in agreement, Cadougan looks to have a ceiling which could result in a stagnation of his development. A stagnation that will no doubt affect MU in multiple areas. There aren't many options in the program so the 1 spot could become a real problem for MU as we've seen its effects this season.

Another point to remember is the only real evidence we have on development is Fulce and Butler. Fulce you can toss out due to injuries. Butler is basically the same player he was in his first season only more refined -- still not a consistent threat from deep; still a great touch from 16'; still looks more for contact on penetration rather than finishing, etc. We could look at other guys in this area but that's a discussion for the slow season.

[Skatastrophy]

I would say James got significantly better at ball control and seeing the court.  He may have stopped shooting because he lost his shot, but on a team with Wes, Jerel and Zar we didn't need him to score much.

DJ changed from an undersized shooting guard into a true point guard.  I wouldn't call that peaking his freshman year, I would call that transforming into what we needed out of him as a player.  This is further evidenced by the number of points he's pouring in playing professionally in Europe. 

[Boone]

Nice try, Tower, but stay on topic: the original post was only about Junior's outside shot and whether it could improve. For every Jerel and Wes (and that's a big stretch, b/c neither of them were billed in high school as being nearly as weak shooting from the outside as Junior was), Henry and Smith, I can give you a Dominic, a Marcus West, Barone, Will Gates and Tony Miller (although he made up for it with great ballhandling and D)...guards who came into the program billed as weak shooters, who never improved.  

I'll post it again, it's very difficult to reverse poor shooting ability.

[79Warrior]

I still believe Buzz will get MU to a Final Four.  We are in year 3 Sultan.  I like the prospects for next year's team - A LOT.  I'm not going to put a fork in this year's team yet either - I could see them making the Sweet 16.  

Not sure where the article I linked would suggest I think we should lower our sights - but I could see a scenario where Buzz takes us to 5 straight NCAA's and if he doesn't get to an Elite 8 or better, some fans will complain.

I think lots of people were looking forward to the prospects for this years team at the end of last season.

[tower912]

Right back atcha, Boone.   Please check out the shooting percentages of Wes, Jerel, and Cordell Henry as frosh.    Then please see if they improved.   Or Fredette.   Or Walker.   Or Jordan Taylor.   Cadougan isn't ever going to be Diener.    But I predict he will be able to shoot well enough to keep the defense honest.  

[Boone]

Ummm...you misread that one, Tower. I credited Henry to your side of the ledger. And like I posted, Wes and Jerel weren't nearly as poor from the outside as high schoolers as Junior was.

Fredette, Walker and Taylor don't attend MU, the last time I checked. For whatever reason, we don't have a great trackrecord  of improving perimeter shooters' strokes.

I hope your prediction is right.

[NersEllenson]

I think lots of people were looking forward to the prospects for this years team at the end of last season.

I agree with your statement.  I'd also suggest that this season is not yet over - nor would many have thought we'd play as many Top 20 teams on the road as we have thus far this season.  We lost a tough game to Number 6 Wisconsins at home, a neutral site game to Number 2 Duke - and then 6 other games against Top 25 teams on the road by an average of about 4 points per game.  We've beaten 3 Top 25 Pomroy teams at home - Cuse, ND and WVU.  Only "bad" home loss was UCONN.

[GGGG]

By the way, here is a good read by the Duke Basketball Report of all things talking about how the original article comparing NC State to an "ugly-duckling" is completely off-base.

http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/articles/?p=38486

[ATL MU Warrior]

I think everyone is losing sight of what Boone is getting at. There's a bit of defensiveness which is shading the responses.

Boone's point is that from what he's seen, and others are likely in agreement, Cadougan looks to have a ceiling which could result in a stagnation of his development. A stagnation that will no doubt affect MU in multiple areas. There aren't many options in the program so the 1 spot could become a real problem for MU as we've seen its effects this season.

Another point to remember is the only real evidence we have on development is Fulce and Butler. Fulce you can toss out due to injuries. Butler is basically the same player he was in his first season only more refined -- still not a consistent threat from deep; still a great touch from 16'; still looks more for contact on penetration rather than finishing, etc. We could look at other guys in this area but that's a discussion for the slow season.

And this theoretical ceiling is based on what exactly?  That's what I don't understand.  His advanced age?  His injury?  His overwhelming amount of D1 experience?  None of this except possibly the injury suggest anything other than future improvement, not stagnation. 

[Golden Avalanche]

And this theoretical ceiling is based on what exactly?  That's what I don't understand.  His advanced age?  His injury?  His overwhelming amount of D1 experience?  None of this except possibly the injury suggest anything other than future improvement, not stagnation. 

Firstly, the odds are against it. The majority of college players remain at the level they show early in their careers but we don't remember them. We only remember the good ones. In a month, Cadougan will be halfway done with his career.

Secondly, lack of athleticism/speed. Without those intangibles, Cadougan doesn't have what is typically necessary to separate himself during the game. Shuts him down.

Thirdly, can't shoot. And don't give me the excuse of deference for a better option. If Blue continues to shoot bricks, there is no reason Cadougan can't put it up. Defenses simply don't believe he'll ever pull up. 4 on 5 is difficult. 1,000 of these a day in the summer.

Fourthly, can't go left. That lay-up he had against the Hoyas was stunning -- man on the moon stunning. Unfortunately, it was the exception proving the rule-type event. May never see it again.

Finally, defense. He is mediocre and with the lack of speed from point two he can catch himself late and that starts a downward trend for the rest of the defensive possession. He has improved from earlier this year in this area but that's because you can't go any lower than the bottom.

These are the issues that surround him at this point. And, you're right, all of this could be reversed dramatically in just eight months of hard work but you can't think some people are stupid because they look at his play and see the possibility that he may never be more than a timeshare PG.

Ironically, I think Cadougan is the best PG on the team right now. Of course, that's likely because my dislike for Buycks is off the charts.

[ATL MU Warrior]

Call me an optimist but here we go:

#'s 1, 2 and 5 are directly related to his injury.  Have we even seen the real Junior yet?  If the Junior we've seen in the last 10 games is the floor, and his ceiling is even a little bit above his current level of play, he's going to be fine.

#3 - This can be fixed.  And deference isn't an excuse, it's the absolute reason why he's our best PG.  I also don't know why you single out Blue...he's also out there at various points in time with DJO, JFB, Jae, Buycks, Otule and Ox.  Those guys are options #1-#4 on the offensive end and Junior is the best guy we have at delivering them the ball where they can do something with it.  That's his role.  His role isn't to chuck up 3's.  His role is to set up our scorers.  Scoring every now and then will keep the D honest and make his role easier, but he doesn't need to be a scorer. 

#4 - I honestly never noticed this and don't remember the specific play you reference from the Georgtown game...must have been a doozy.