Kolek planning to go pro
Agreed. It would be much more difficult.Non-answer but sure....
China invading Taiwan is infinitely more difficult than Russia invading Ukraine. It's not happening.And its easy for people in countries thousands of miles away to say "win at all costs," which I assume you mean capturing all of what was Ukraine a decade ago, but destroying even more property and killing thousands of more people are pretty hefty costs to hold onto areas that are populated with people who would likely rather be with Russia anyway.
fluffI said two minutes because it likely would take 15-30 seconds for China to get all of their birds fired up and about another 20 seconds to fly them from Xiamen over the Xiamen Bay into Taiwan.
Do you expect the Taiwan military to simply lob rocks at the Chinese airplanes? They'd need an amphibious assault to get their soldiers over there.The Taiwan military has 450k members. China has something like 2 million soliders. There is a general rule that you need a 3:1 ratio to capture territory. That means China would be committing 1.2-1.3 million soldiers to capture the island. That is a very dangerous proposition.
First of all, we have no idea what Putin will do from this point forward in Ukraine. My guess is he's recalibrating and his troops need major supplies, but either way it is certainly not inconceivable he'll carpet bomb and use chemical weapons like he has in the past. However, no one predicted how difficult this would be for Putin including military experts.Now if you're saying Xi taking over Taiwan would be harder if we do not directly protect Taiwan I can't agree with you. If we fight in concert with the Taiwanese air defense systems it will absolutely be harder than Putin's attack of Ukraine.Again, I don't see anything that would frighten the CCP from attenpting an assault on Taiwan based on the West and the USA's actions thus far.
HardsI have spent the last 37 years of my life making a living first in Taiwan, then and now China and have expanded to all SE Asia over the past half decade. By NO means do I feel I am an expert on China, Taiwan or any other SE Asia country, but I definitely know that I have a well balanced, firsthand knowledge of the region. I only say this as a backdrop of how I come to my decisions/comments on this topic. China is very unique and not for the reasons that most pundits use as a basis of their talking points. There are obvious traits they possess, that most everyone will agree on, they are calculating, ruthless, well prepared for any conflict they much choose to enter and very disciplined, but the biggest trait they possess today is President Xi and his power. Now, I am sure you will say you agree on the President Xi comment, but I want add a very basic twist to his significance. I would be willing to bet a nice sum of money that most, educated Americans would struggle to name the last leader of China. President Xi is now know by name and face by virtually every educated American. I believe his rise to power will go down as the biggest power shift in the world in this century.China, if they invade Taiwan, will not be 100% prepared for victory, but will be 200% prepared for any twist that could their way in this battle, including any USA involvement. If they invade, which I believe they will, it will be the most prepared military operation the world has ever seen. Chinese nationalism has never been higher and a takeover of China will only throw gas on that fire.Sadly, I believe the Belt and Road initiative is even more dangerous for the US than a possible Taiwan invasion. Their influence in Africa, Central and South America and elsewhere is growing by the day. President Xi looks at Taiwan as a symbolic W for China, the Belt and Road initiative is his crown jewel. Now, I believe the B&R could ultimately backfire on them if they invade Taiwan and have serious economic sanctions handcuff them. Now to answer your military question, I think it would be short lived battle with very little harm inflicted on China for the reasons noted above. I am sure many on here have spent time in China and it is virtually impossible to not see their might on display. I made my first to Peking in 1985 and have seen this superpower grow over 37 years. You cannot have domestic flights in China without having delays due to China Air Force conducting training in airspace over the airport, their naval capabilities is on full display in and around China and I am guessing they have figured out the technology needed to get the job done.I love Taiwan and believe I received an MBA on how to do business from the Taiwanese and will always love Taiwan. IMO, I do not think they have a chance to last very long in a battle with China. Two minutes might be a bit quick, but it would not be lengthy with USA military support, and real support.
HardsSadly, I believe the Belt and Road initiative is even more dangerous for the US than a possible Taiwan invasion. Their influence in Africa, Central and South America and elsewhere is growing by the day. President Xi looks at Taiwan as a symbolic W for China, the Belt and Road initiative is his crown jewel. Now, I believe the B&R could ultimately backfire on them if they invade Taiwan and have serious economic sanctions handcuff them.
MU FanThe economic blowback is definitely something China would weigh carefully, but at some point, I believe they go all in regardless of how it affects them economically. That is why the Belt and Road initiative is so big, IMO. They are buying allies, many with vast natural resources and they are doing so when many Americans having no knowledge of it. I believe the misunderstanding of China by the West might be their biggest asset. I try and read or watch as much as I can on China every day because I need to for work and because I believe it is something we all should be educated on.One thing on the economy, I 100% believe that severe economic sanctions on China would hurt the West far more than China in the short run. We cannot handle the supply chain issues now, what do we do if cut them off? Reshoring on a mass scale is apipedream, IMO and China fully knows this and knows our weakness. Why not hit Taiwan when it hurt us most?
Goose,You are making the same mistake everyone said about Russia invading Ukraine.Big does not make it better or even good.
I agree with much of what you've said, but I whole-heartedly disagree with your military assessment. Also, I'm no expert. I just love military, history, and global politics. We can disagree about the difficulty of taking an island of motivated inhabitants that is 14k sq mi. Okinawa is 463 sq mi. 15k-20k dead Americans... we took it, but it was EXPENSIVE. It was the bloodiest battle in the Pacific theater in WW2. Could China eventually overwhelm Taiwan? Yes. Would it be extremely costly? Absolutely.
You cannot compare Okinawa in the 1940's to a potential military assault of Taiwan in 2023.
MU FanNo offense, comparing China and Russia is like comparing MU and Villanova. I will say it again, President Xi is a smart, smart man and he will leave stone unturned.
Muggsy,Sadly, what I have done for a living has helped create the issue we face. Dating back to President Clinton, every President has allowed China to play unsupervised and it created a major mess. Without a military conflict I believe hurting them economically in a big way would have been the solution twenty years ago and we missed that opportunity. If American's could stomach real economic heartache, that would be my solution today. The problem is, it would be real economic heartache and the Fed would not have the ability to cover that mess because they are out of bullets.