COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[MU82]

This is about getting an accurate count, not who’s right or wrong. 

Cool. I look forward to seeing many links from you about the under-counting of deaths coming out of other states in your endless pursuit of the truth. Seriously, I look forward to them.

[Pakuni]

What does the data show if it doesn’t show that 13% of deaths attributed to Covid had no mention of Covid on death certificate.

That's not what you said in the post I responded to.

[pacearrow02]

That's not what you said in the post I responded to.

Huh? The link was included on the post you responded to showing exactly that. 

[pacearrow02]

Cool. I look forward to seeing many links from you about the under-counting of deaths coming out of other states in your endless pursuit of the truth. Seriously, I look forward to them.

If there is a link with data showing that I’m all in for sharing it and discussing it.

[GooooMarquette]

Possible delay in restarting Premier League?

Coronavirus: Watford and Burnley confirm positive tests

https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/52726278

The league had previously identified 12 June for matches to possibly start again, but there is now an expectation this will need to be pushed back.

[MU82]

If there is a link with data showing that I’m all in for sharing it and discussing it.

A few have already been provided, I believe, including from Georgia and Florida. I guess one "side" is in charge of sharing those, and you are in charge of your "side."

But it's not about "who's right or wrong."

Meanwhile, from the NYT ...

Some churches that had resumed in-person gatherings are developing a case of reopener’s remorse. Holy Ghost Catholic Church in Houston, for instance, closed again after a priest who had pneumonia died and five leaders tested positive last weekend for the coronavirus. At a single church in Arkansas, 35 of the 92 people who had attended over a six-day period later tested positive for the virus, and three died, according to a report released yesterday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

I feel very sad for all of these victims. The rush to re-open is costing lives.

[mu03eng]

Not to take away from the pissing matches of who's more wrong but I thought we might circle back to where we are in our knowledge of the virus(and acknowledge we've made a ton of progress since March which was one of the main outcomes of the lockdown). So I tried to make a list of things we now know* about the virus and how prevent and/or treat it

-General virus transmission rules apply so minimize duration with infected person, maximize distance, wash hands as much as possible, and outside is much preferred to inside
-Infected people who wear masks reduce transmissions, transmissions are significantly reduced if all parties wear masks
-This virus tends to transmit in "large batches" meaning that a casual encounter with a person at a store is a lot less likely to cause infection(especially in an exponential growth style) than are large events like church service, concert, etc
-the contagion period seems to be two days prior to symptoms and 2-3 days after symptoms start
-the preponderance of severe cases is in the elderly and/or those with significant comorbidities
-Once you get Covid you very likely have immunity for a period of time(length is unknown at this time)
-early intervention in the form of intebation is to be avoided
-lay patients prone as much as possible and watch for clotting events
-Vaccine of some sort is very probable to happen the only question is how much immunity does it confer and how long does it lost (is it flu vaccine effective or MMR vaccine effective). The other question is when it would be available
-UV light kills the virus on surfaces

What did I miss, anything I got really wrong? My point here is we really are starting to get a handle on this virus and that should guide as we go forward. We also need to let go of our "priors" we developed in February/March when we were just learning of this virus(prime example is Fauci saying masks don't matter in March, we know a lot more now).

*I mean this to be probably known or scientifically verified, we don't know a lot with 100% certainty....but we can't make decisions on just the 100% certain info

[tower912]

Fair.

[MU82]

Not to take away from the pissing matches of who's more wrong but I thought we might circle back to where we are in our knowledge of the virus(and acknowledge we've made a ton of progress since March which was one of the main outcomes of the lockdown). So I tried to make a list of things we now know* about the virus and how prevent and/or treat it

-General virus transmission rules apply so minimize duration with infected person, maximize distance, wash hands as much as possible, and outside is much preferred to inside
-Infected people who wear masks reduce transmissions, transmissions are significantly reduced if all parties wear masks
-This virus tends to transmit in "large batches" meaning that a casual encounter with a person at a store is a lot less likely to cause infection(especially in an exponential growth style) than are large events like church service, concert, etc
-the contagion period seems to be two days prior to symptoms and 2-3 days after symptoms start
-the preponderance of severe cases is in the elderly and/or those with significant comorbidities
-Once you get Covid you very likely have immunity for a period of time(length is unknown at this time)
-early intervention in the form of intebation is to be avoided
-lay patients prone as much as possible and watch for clotting events
-Vaccine of some sort is very probable to happen the only question is how much immunity does it confer and how long does it lost (is it flu vaccine effective or MMR vaccine effective). The other question is when it would be available
-UV light kills the virus on surfaces

What did I miss, anything I got really wrong? My point here is we really are starting to get a handle on this virus and that should guide as we go forward. We also need to let go of our "priors" we developed in February/March when we were just learning of this virus(prime example is Fauci saying masks don't matter in March, we know a lot more now).

*I mean this to be probably known or scientifically verified, we don't know a lot with 100% certainty....but we can't make decisions on just the 100% certain info

Good list. Thanks.

Unfortunately, even facts lead to pissing matches. For example, masks have become a political issue.

But yes, good list.

[#UnleashSean]

Good list. Thanks.

Unfortunately, even facts lead to pissing matches. For example, masks have become a political issue.

But yes, good list.

God I wish the banhammer would come down on you.....

[GooooMarquette]

Good list. Thanks.

Unfortunately, even facts lead to pissing matches. For example, masks have become a political issue.

But yes, good list.

Agreed on all counts. It is unfortunate when people who try to get out facts (and dispute “alternative facts”) are accused of engaging in a “pissing match,” but I guess that’s where our country is right now.

[wadesworld]

God I wish the banhammer would come down on you.....

Start your own site.  You can hammer down whoever you want, which you seem to like telling the moderators to do.

[MU82]

God I wish the banhammer would come down on you.....

You have read and participated in this thread.

My statement, "Masks have become a political issue," is approximately the 5,233rd-most political comment in this thread.

I do get how facts can be annoying, though.

[mu03eng]

Good list. Thanks.

Unfortunately, even facts lead to pissing matches. For example, masks have become a political issue.

But yes, good list.

I get why masks are "controversial", part of it is the media is bad at identifying when priors have changed. I'm not even sure if it's a fixable thing, but once a "fact" is out there, in this cause the authorities saying early on not to wear masks in public, it is tough to walk it back.

I mean it's somewhat hip to make fun of the "neanderthals refusing to wear masks" but I can also see how/why people come to a conclusion like that....if they are predisposed to distrust government and are told not to wear masks then everything is shut down (government overreach to them) and then told to wear masks it becomes an easy flashpoint for resistance.

Honestly, part of the reason I made that post is that I feel like in this thread and in the US generally we need a reset. Let's all stop and think about what we actually know and what stuff we have to leave in the past. We need to reset our priors and reevaluate our going forward based on today not what we think we know from the past.

[GooooMarquette]

I get why masks are "controversial", part of it is the media is bad at identifying when priors have changed. I'm not even sure if it's a fixable thing, but once a "fact" is out there, in this cause the authorities saying early on not to wear masks in public, it is tough to walk it back.

I mean it's somewhat hip to make fun of the "neanderthals refusing to wear masks" but I can also see how/why people come to a conclusion like that....if they are predisposed to distrust government and are told not to wear masks then everything is shut down (government overreach to them) and then told to wear masks it becomes an easy flashpoint for resistance.

Honestly, part of the reason I made that post is that I feel like in this thread and in the US generally we need a reset. Let's all stop and think about what we actually know and what stuff we have to leave in the past. We need to reset our priors and reevaluate our going forward based on today not what we think we know from the past.

Fair point. To add to your list:

* while more robust trials are ongoing, currently available data does not indicate that hydroxychloroquine has a statistically significant benefit on morbidity or mortality.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2012410

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2766117

[MUfan12]

I mean it's somewhat hip to make fun of the "neanderthals refusing to wear masks" but I can also see how/why people come to a conclusion like that....if they are predisposed to distrust government and are told not to wear masks then everything is shut down (government overreach to them) and then told to wear masks it becomes an easy flashpoint for resistance.

And the first sentence is making them dig their heels in further.

[mu03eng]

Side note, I have discovered that the career path of house husband is 100% not a thing I'm doing in "normal times".

[MU82]

I get why masks are "controversial", part of it is the media is bad at identifying when priors have changed. I'm not even sure if it's a fixable thing, but once a "fact" is out there, in this cause the authorities saying early on not to wear masks in public, it is tough to walk it back.

I mean it's somewhat hip to make fun of the "neanderthals refusing to wear masks" but I can also see how/why people come to a conclusion like that....if they are predisposed to distrust government and are told not to wear masks then everything is shut down (government overreach to them) and then told to wear masks it becomes an easy flashpoint for resistance.

Honestly, part of the reason I made that post is that I feel like in this thread and in the US generally we need a reset. Let's all stop and think about what we actually know and what stuff we have to leave in the past. We need to reset our priors and reevaluate our going forward based on today not what we think we know from the past.

mu03:

I appreciate your effort and your tone, and I will step aside for awhile and see what transpires.

Have a great day!

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I get why masks are "controversial", part of it is the media is bad at identifying when priors have changed. I'm not even sure if it's a fixable thing, but once a "fact" is out there, in this cause the authorities saying early on not to wear masks in public, it is tough to walk it back.

I mean it's somewhat hip to make fun of the "neanderthals refusing to wear masks" but I can also see how/why people come to a conclusion like that....if they are predisposed to distrust government and are told not to wear masks then everything is shut down (government overreach to them) and then told to wear masks it becomes an easy flashpoint for resistance.

Honestly, part of the reason I made that post is that I feel like in this thread and in the US generally we need a reset. Let's all stop and think about what we actually know and what stuff we have to leave in the past. We need to reset our priors and reevaluate our going forward based on today not what we think we know from the past.

Thanks for this, i was thinking about starting a new thread called Virus Facts - but let’s see if your effort sticks.

[tower912]

As our understanding has evolved, it has become clear that masks are a useful tool in preventing spread.  Even cloth masks have some value, though clearly surgical masks and N95s are better.    Just wear the masks and a whole lot of transmission is prevented.

[Pakuni]

I mean it's somewhat hip to make fun of the "neanderthals refusing to wear masks" but I can also see how/why people come to a conclusion like that....if they are predisposed to distrust government and are told not to wear masks then everything is shut down (government overreach to them) and then told to wear masks it becomes an easy flashpoint for resistance.

I understand and appreciate the point you're trying to make, but have we really come to the point where we can't point out (and yes, even shame) bad and harmful behavior because we fear that those engaging in it will dig in their heels. When did appeasing bad actors at the expense of public health become a thing?
Not wearing a mask is selfish because it puts your fellow citizens at risk of  a dangerous disease. We shouldn't be afraid of saying that. There's nothing wrong with telling people they're putting their fellow citizens at risk. We're not afraid of telling people not to drink and drive because it may cause them to drink and drive more.

And - at the risk of a pissing match, which I honestly don't want - the problem isn't the media" doing a poor job of identifying when priors have changed. I suspect everything you've included in your excellent list of what we now know about the virus is something you learned through "the media."
The problem is certain voices in the media - and in our political leadership - are sending mixed messages, or even encouraging bad behavior, for their own gain.

[GooooMarquette]

I don't see this turning out well for the country. Instead of following the advice of CDC and peer-reviewed data, the White House is actively seeking out doctors who agree with his views, with a promise of TV time if they say the right thing. Note: this article is from the politically-central Associated Press.

Trump allies lining up doctors to prescribe rapid reopening

https://apnews.com/4ee1a3a8d631b454f645b2a8d9597de7

Republican political operatives are recruiting “extremely pro-Trump” doctors to go on television to prescribe reviving the U.S. economy as quickly as possible, without waiting to meet safety benchmarks proposed by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to slow the spread of the new coronavirus.

The plan was discussed in a May 11 conference call with a senior staffer for the Trump reelection campaign organized by CNP Action, an affiliate of the GOP-aligned Council for National Policy. A leaked recording of the hourlong call was provided to The Associated Press by the Center for Media and Democracy, a progressive watchdog group.

[GooooMarquette]

As our understanding has evolved, it has become clear that masks are a useful tool in preventing spread.  Even cloth masks have some value, though clearly surgical masks and N95s are better.    Just wear the masks and a whole lot of transmission is prevented.

Agreed. I suspect this has become a "political issue" solely because POTUS refuses to wear one, despite the evidence showing that they reduce transmission. If he started to wear one today (and state unequivocally that it is the right thing for all Americans to do), it would cease to be a political issue tomorrow.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

I don't see this turning out well for the country. Instead of following the advice of CDC and peer-reviewed data, the White House is actively seeking out doctors who agree with his views, with a promise of TV time if they say the right thing. Note: this article is from the politically-central Associated Press.

Trump allies lining up doctors to prescribe rapid reopening

https://apnews.com/4ee1a3a8d631b454f645b2a8d9597de7

Republican political operatives are recruiting “extremely pro-Trump” doctors to go on television to prescribe reviving the U.S. economy as quickly as possible, without waiting to meet safety benchmarks proposed by the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to slow the spread of the new coronavirus.

The plan was discussed in a May 11 conference call with a senior staffer for the Trump reelection campaign organized by CNP Action, an affiliate of the GOP-aligned Council for National Policy. A leaked recording of the hourlong call was provided to The Associated Press by the Center for Media and Democracy, a progressive watchdog group.

They are taking the chicos "500 doctors" route.

[GooooMarquette]

Timberwolves, Mayo Clinic to lead leaguewide coronavirus study

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29197269/timberwolves-mayo-clinic-lead-league-wide-coronavirus-study

When Timberwolves president Gersson Rosas set about assembling a front-office staff in Minnesota in 2019, he was insistent that the group include a doctor who specialized in medicine and technology. Rosas was looking for someone analytical who could help the Timberwolves use data to optimize the health of players.

Rosas eventually hired Dr. Robby Sikka, who has a background in anesthesiology, sports medicine research and returning to play after injury.

"Whenever I got a job, that was the type of guy that I wanted in my front office," Rosas said. "He allows us to attack blind spots that are critical to our players."

At the time, Rosas could not have predicted that Sikka's job would include combating a virus that spiraled into a global pandemic and caused the NBA to shut down. Now, Sikka and the Mayo Clinic -- an academic medical center headquartered in Rochester, Minnesota -- are spearheading a leaguewide study that aims to establish what percentage of NBA players, coaches, executives and staff have developed antibodies to the coronavirus.

The initiative, which is supported by the league office and the players' association, is expected to have the participation of all 30 teams.

-----------

Kudos to the MLB and now the NBA for actively seeking hard data to inform any plans to resume play.