COVID-19 (f/k/a "the Coronavirus")

[#UnleashSean]

Maybe I've been misreading it all this time ... but isn't the main purpose of a mask to catch one's own "droplets," and thereby not affect others?

Theoretically, there are millions and millions and millions of carriers who don't know they are carriers.

For this purpose, even home-made "masks" theoretically are better than none, right? Because I can't believe anybody with any medical or science knowledge believes that a bandana or a coffee filter or a t-shirt is going to protect the wearer of that jury-rigged "mask."

These home-made masks don't catch droplets effectively either. Between not tight fits, non existant sealing, and the ability for the virus to go right through the material, the homemade masks are like stopping a laceration with a band aid.

They are being used to quell fear in the public. Not unlike blackout laws in Illinois or metal drives during WW2.

[pbiflyer]

I think a COVID "colony" approach is a sound idea from a disease management approach, but I'm not sure Americans are gonna want to get tested if they know a positive result would get them locked up for several weeks. Especially since we have been telling them for weeks that those with mild symptoms could treat themselves in the comfort of their own home. Many are going to see this as a more restrictive approach, just as people are clamoring for fewer restrictions as they see the curve flattening.

I totally get the rationale and agree with the approach. But converting that to large-scale public buy-in could be difficult.

I'm with hards on the solution, but my wife holds the same opinion you do.  She has less faith in humanity. Sadly, she is probably right.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

Maybe I've been misreading it all this time ... but isn't the main purpose of a mask to catch one's own "droplets," and thereby not affect others?

Theoretically, there are millions and millions and millions of carriers who don't know they are carriers.

For this purpose, even home-made "masks" theoretically are better than none, right? Because I can't believe anybody with any medical or science knowledge believes that a bandana or a coffee filter or a t-shirt is going to protect the wearer of that jury-rigged "mask."

Here is a piece that dives into this — plus the cultural aspects.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/world/europe/virus-mask-wearing.html

[JWags85]

Here is a piece that dives into this — plus the cultural aspects.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/world/europe/virus-mask-wearing.html

I like the picture of the guy wearing a mask...but going to a f-ing ATM without gloves or anything else.  Perfect.

My concern with the general public is more faced with the option of staying home and keeping the economy "closed" for extended periods of time, aka through the summer, lots of people will prefer to take their chances, in some fashion, than face more certain economic hardship.  Cause call me a cynic, but going through the PPP process as a business principle and also seeing the lags/snags/etc... in the stimulus payments, I have a REALLY hard time trusting that the government will do anything near necessary to keep people and businesses financially sound while also asking them to continue putting their lives on hold.  Especially knowing there will be a wave of business closures/failures in late summer with extended shutdowns, regardless of what payroll the government says they will cover in the meantime.

[Frenns Liquor Depot]

I like the picture of the guy wearing a mask...but going to a f-ing ATM without gloves or anything else.  Perfect.

My concern with the general public is more faced with the option of staying home and keeping the economy "closed" for extended periods of time, aka through the summer, lots of people will prefer to take their chances, in some fashion, than face more certain economic hardship.  Cause call me a cynic, but going through the PPP process as a business principle and also seeing the lags/snags/etc... in the stimulus payments, I have a REALLY hard time trusting that the government will do anything near necessary to keep people and businesses financially sound while also asking them to continue putting their lives on hold.  Especially knowing there will be a wave of business closures/failures in late summer with extended shutdowns, regardless of what payroll the government says they will cover in the meantime.

I thought that picture was funny too.  However it also made me realize how much has changed as I wouldn’t have even thought about the risk of paying with a credit card a few weeks ago.

[#UnleashSean]

I like the picture of the guy wearing a mask...but going to a f-ing ATM without gloves or anything else.  Perfect.

My concern with the general public is more faced with the option of staying home and keeping the economy "closed" for extended periods of time, aka through the summer, lots of people will prefer to take their chances, in some fashion, than face more certain economic hardship.  Cause call me a cynic, but going through the PPP process as a business principle and also seeing the lags/snags/etc... in the stimulus payments, I have a REALLY hard time trusting that the government will do anything near necessary to keep people and businesses financially sound while also asking them to continue putting their lives on hold.  Especially knowing there will be a wave of business closures/failures in late summer with extended shutdowns, regardless of what payroll the government says they will cover in the meantime.

I'm in the same boat here.

With summer coming up, no entertainment being produced, theaters are closed, no sports are on. Are people really going to be staying home? How much of the population says "to hell with this" and go about their lives?

[rocky_warrior]

This is a really grim article but It shows a universal problem of understanding the breadth of the pandemic when it hits an area hard.  There were similar stories in other western hot spots like Italy. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/nyregion/new-york-coronavirus-death-count.html

Bumping this - because it wasn't discussed, and the first paragraph of the article essentially proves COVID-19 death counts are wrong...

In the first five days of April, 1,125 people were pronounced dead in their homes or on the street in New York City, more than eight times the deaths recorded during the same period in 2019, according to the Fire Department.

I mean - 8x - and these people aren't being counted against COVID-19. So models, experts, idiots, etc.  Nobody knows the extent of this yet (and maybe never will)

[forgetful]

Some people complain about anything.  Conspiracy theorists and anti-vaxxers who come up with inane reasons to not get vaccinated will reap what they sow.

There is a legal precedent from the Smallpox vaccine days which will likely be used for a COVID vaccine. Essentially, entities will be able to ban individuals who are not vaccinated, essentially legally compelling them to get the vaccine.

https://www.law.cornell.edu/supremecourt/text/197/11

edit. updated with the court case reference.

[Galway Eagle]

There is a legal precedent from the Smallpox vaccine days which will likely be used for a COVID vaccine. Essentially, entities will be able to ban individuals who are not vaccinated, essentially legally compelling them to get the vaccine.

This should be used against a$$hole antivaxers in general not just covid

[rocky_warrior]

These home-made masks don't catch droplets effectively either. Between not tight fits, non existant sealing, and the ability for the virus to go right through the material, the homemade masks are like stopping a laceration with a band aid.

They are being used to quell fear in the public. Not unlike blackout laws in Illinois or metal drives during WW2.

I'm gonna call you out here, because of how dismissive you're acting.  For protecting yourself, these masks are useless, for protecting others, they're at least 50% more effective than no face covering (I have no scientific numbers...it's probably higher than that).

As a (part-time?) healthcare worker you should probably just appreciate any steps the general public is doing to keep everyone else healthy, no?

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Unfortunately essentially useless for close contact. I wont even go into the sealing portion of it (nonexistent) but even ineffective as a droplet catcher.

Yean, but you are going to be extremely grateful when that dutch oven full of pot roast unexpectedly lands on your face.

[MU82]

Here is a piece that dives into this — plus the cultural aspects.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/09/world/europe/virus-mask-wearing.html

Thanks for that link, and thanks everybody else for the discussion.

[#UnleashSean]

I'm gonna call you out here, because of how dismissive you're acting.  For protecting yourself, these masks are useless, for protecting others, they're at least 50% more effective than no face covering (I have no scientific numbers...it's probably higher than that).

As a (part-time?) healthcare worker you should probably just appreciate any steps the general public is doing to keep everyone else healthy, no?

You can think that. I believe these masks will make people less cautious.

My real job is working with special needs clients in the group home settings. Teaching delegation skills to employees as well as managing 2 homes.

When covid hit a bunch of nurses in group home settings like me took leaves from them to work at the hospitals. So I'm currently attempting to do both.

[GooooMarquette]

I'm in the same boat here.

With summer coming up, no entertainment being produced, theaters are closed, no sports are on. Are people really going to be staying home? How much of the population says "to hell with this" and go about their lives?

Where exactly would they do this? If theaters, parks, sporting venues, malls and such are still closed, is everyone just gonna hold big block parties?

[Galway Eagle]

Where exactly would they do this? If theaters, parks, sporting venues, malls and such are still closed, is everyone just gonna hold big block parties?

House party?

[#UnleashSean]

Where exactly would they do this? If theaters, parks, sporting venues, malls and such are still closed, is everyone just gonna hold big block parties?

House parties, grill outs, parks being "closed" wont stop people from going there in 2 months.

Without anything to distract themselves people will start to gather with their regular groups again. I'm sure plenty of people will already be gathering over Easter.

[GooooMarquette]

From NYT: "Coronavirus Live Updates: U.S. Projects Summer Spike in Infections if Stay-At-Home Orders Are Lifted"

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/us/coronavirus-updates-usa.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20200410&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline&regi_id=88591053&segment_id=24678&user_id=a4394b6a5672354a123af665691a6f2d#link-cfe0b1a

"The government’s conclusions are sobering. Without any mitigation, such as school closings, shelter-in-place orders, telework and socially distancing, the death toll from coronavirus could have reached 300,000. But if the administration lifts the 30-day stay-at-home orders, the death total is estimated to reach 200,000, even if schools remain closed until summer, 25 percent of the country continues to work from home and some social distancing continues.

If nothing was done, infection rates would top out at 195 million Americans, and 965,000 people would require hospitalization in an intensive care unit, according to the projections’ “best guess.” But with a 30-day shelter in place and other measures, infections would still reach 160 million and 740,000 would need intensive care."

Yikes!

[JWags85]

From NYT: "Coronavirus Live Updates: U.S. Projects Summer Spike in Infections if Stay-At-Home Orders Are Lifted"

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/10/us/coronavirus-updates-usa.html?campaign_id=60&emc=edit_na_20200410&instance_id=0&nl=breaking-news&ref=headline&regi_id=88591053&segment_id=24678&user_id=a4394b6a5672354a123af665691a6f2d#link-cfe0b1a

"The government’s conclusions are sobering. Without any mitigation, such as school closings, shelter-in-place orders, telework and socially distancing, the death toll from coronavirus could have reached 300,000. But if the administration lifts the 30-day stay-at-home orders, the death total is estimated to reach 200,000, even if schools remain closed until summer, 25 percent of the country continues to work from home and some social distancing continues.

If nothing was done, infection rates would top out at 195 million Americans, and 965,000 people would require hospitalization in an intensive care unit, according to the projections’ “best guess.” But with a 30-day shelter in place and other measures, infections would still reach 160 million and 740,000 would need intensive care."

Yikes!

Cases peaking 6 months from the start of stay at home?  So basically stay in lockdown till a vaccine is created.  Perfect.  Half the country would be unemployed, but at least we were cautious and not selfish!

"Hey everyone thats encouraged by progress, here's a reason to not be enthused at all. its actually just as bad, maybe worse!"

[Jockey]

Bumping this - because it wasn't discussed, and the first paragraph of the article essentially proves COVID-19 death counts are wrong...

I mean - 8x - and these people aren't being counted against COVID-19. So models, experts, idiots, etc.  Nobody knows the extent of this yet (and maybe never will)

Thanks for posting the article, Rocky. I read it a couple days ago, but when I wanted to post it, I couldn't find it.

[Jay Bee]

Cases peaking 6 months from the start of stay at home?  So basically stay in lockdown till a vaccine is created.  Perfect.  Half the country would be unemployed, but at least we were cautious and not selfish!

"Hey everyone thats encouraged by progress, here's a reason to not be enthused at all. its actually just as bad, maybe worse!"

Exactly. There’s no reasonable pathway out of this. #LastDays

[GooooMarquette]

Cases peaking 6 months from the start of stay at home?  So basically stay in lockdown till a vaccine is created.  Perfect.  Half the country would be unemployed, but at least we were cautious and not selfish!

"Hey everyone thats encouraged by progress, here's a reason to not be enthused at all. its actually just as bad, maybe worse!"

Actually, the numbers say it's not as bad as expected, as long as we follow the guidelines. But if we don't keep following them, well, then we will go from bad to worse in a big hurry.

[Jockey]

Cases peaking 6 months from the start of stay at home?  So basically stay in lockdown till a vaccine is created.  Perfect.  Half the country would be unemployed, but at least we were cautious and not selfish!

"Hey everyone thats encouraged by progress, here's a reason to not be enthused at all. its actually just as bad, maybe worse!"

Wags, what is your suggestion for starting to open the economy back up? I ask thiis because you have a bigger stake than most of us. I also won’t hold you to whatever answer you give as things change quickly and I’m sure your thoughts may change as data changes.

[GooooMarquette]

Wags, what is your suggestion for starting to open the economy back up? I ask thiis because you have a bigger stake than most of us. I also won’t hold you to whatever answer you give as things change quickly and I’m sure your thoughts may change as data changes.

I came back to edit my post to ask that exact question, but you beat me to it.

I'm all for hearing alternative suggestions that are based on the existing data and trends.

[injuryBug]

Cases peaking 6 months from the start of stay at home?  So basically stay in lockdown till a vaccine is created.  Perfect.  Half the country would be unemployed, but at least we were cautious and not selfish!

"Hey everyone thats encouraged by progress, here's a reason to not be enthused at all. its actually just as bad, maybe worse!"

and the other half would have severe mental health issues.

So if 80% of those tested are negative what are the symptoms that are getting them tested?  Is this a case of you are sure you have it cause someone you know has it and you "feel" sick.  We have all seen it.  You kiss your girlfriend and a day later she has strep now your throat is killing you so you must have strep. 
The number of negative tests puzzles me with how hard it is to be tested

[JWags85]

Actually, the numbers say it's not as bad as expected, as long as we follow the guidelines. But if we don't keep following them, well, then we will go from bad to worse in a big hurry.

I meant moreso that the perceived efforts and sacrifices are rendered meaningless unless to bar the door for another 2/3/4 months.

Wags, what is your suggestion for starting to open the economy back up? I ask thiis because you have a bigger stake than most of us. I also won’t hold you to whatever answer you give as things change quickly and I’m sure your thoughts may change as data changes.

Off the top of my head?  Keep gathering size regulations in place. Continue to recommend/mandate social distancing for vulnerable populations.  Continue to push for increased hospital/healthcare capacity. DEMAND government/administration/whoever put full resources and priority on testing.

And given the above, begin opening back up in May.  Don't turn on a firehose in places like NYC or SF, but elsewhere. 

I don't have all the answers, and I'm a bit less conservative about it here than some for obvious reasons, but seeing model-fueled opinions that we need to carry on as we have for the last 3+ weeks until August is just not feasible from an economic perspective.  Listen, my grandmother is in her 80s on oxygen.  My other grandmother just turned 90.  My father is 61 and diabetic.  I am not immune from vulnerable people in my life.  However, I also work with my father and know that this going to August will kill the business he built, put 25+ people worldwide out of work, and that will be as debilitating to him.  We're not alone in our situation.

My buddy is a consultant, has done very well.  But his business is largely restructuring and bankruptcy work.  Seems like a great time for his field?  The opposite.  He was in El Paso/Juarez turning around a struggling factory.  Made some tough cuts but got some footing.  Then this hit, they will likely have to shutter it.  And the outlook for their work is bleak.  Can't travel to clients.  Turn around plays are being discarded to just potentially shut down and strip.  His firm is looking at potentially going on hiatus for MONTHS if something doesn't change.

Aside from some political infighting, we've been pretty fair and balanced here weighing economic and "human interest" perspectives, which is appreciated and refreshing.  But sadly its a rarity.  Its either deal with COVID denying ultra-business viewpoints, or "its just money, business will come back, thats what the stimulus is for" making you feel like you're some reptile for being concerned about revenue and profits when someone's Grandma passed away from COVID.