MLB 2023-2024 Offseason

[jficke13]

It's really a fascinating case study in mismanagement that RSNs can't make money broadcasting professional sports to home markets.

[Jockey]

It's really a fascinating case study in mismanagement that RSNs can't make money broadcasting professional sports to home markets.

I don't know about that. I think it is more about the collapse of the cable market.

[Jockey]

From an article on tvrev.com:

Since the the start of the pandemic in 2020, the once-successful idea behind the networks — sports channels that subsist entirely on live, studio and archive content for local sports teams — has collapsed as part of the wider fall of the cable bundle and a larger shift in sports viewing. And it’s still getting worse for the many RSNs owned and operated by Diamond Sports Group.

Diamond Sports declared bankruptcy in March 2023, and has since lost the rights to a variety of teams across the NBA, NHL and most importantly, MLB. Various reports this week indicate there could be several options available for the struggling enterprise to gain a liferaft.

Former parent company Sinclair would love to buy the company back at a discount, but it’s debatable whether that actually solves problems for either party.

Meanwhile, the NBA reportedly (via SBJ) has a deal in place to regain teams’ Diamond Sports RSN rights at the end of the 2023-24 regular season. And MLB may be working on a deal (via Sportico) to keep those networks afloat as the primary place to watch regular season games for 2024. But Amazon also appears to have an interest in investing in Diamond Sports, according to Tuesday reporting from the Wall Street Journal.

Amazon’s entry into the conversation is where TVREV’s Alan Wolk and I started to hypothesize where all of this is headed — for both the leagues and for Amazon, should the wind up being involved.

As WSJ notes, there’s a streaming component here, and that distribution angle is just part of the draw for Amazon. Yes, the company has pushed to air more live sports, but it wouldn’t have to take over the entire broadcast function the same way it has with the NFL’s Thursday Night spot.

Instead, an arrangement with Diamond Sports could allow Amazon to function as a vMVPD — as it already does with other premium subscription options — and let customers tack on their respective RSN to Prime Video for a monthly fee. Amazon would be the access point for that content, and be the ones serving the ads, and of course, collecting the data… which would be much more local-specific than what it’s getting during NFL games or scripted TV shows right now.

It also sets Amazon up well to grow on the back of baseball, in particular:

          Amazon’s self-serve ad business is aimed at SMBs, many of whom are
local. With RSNs in the fold, the games now provide those advertisers a nice array of inventory for those companies to advertise against, at a price point that probably makes more sense than its other video offerings (but is also much more targeted).

          Amazon also gets to simply increase its video inventory as an opportunity to promote its other video offerings to consumers that may not otherwise watch Amazon programs. This is especially interesting for baseball, which has a lot of interest in the middle of the country, where Amazon’s programs may not have the same penetration yet as they do on the coasts.

          That increased inventory also gives bigger advertisers opportunities for more targeted ads that Amazon can charge a premium for, as the company of course knows their purchasing behaviors in full.

          Lastly, the RSNs help ensure that sports fans don’t feel the need to upgrade to ad-free programming, since sports comes with ads regardless.

That’s all just the beginning, of course. If the NBA’s deal means that many fans will be purchasing local game subscriptions directly through the league (via League Pass or another, new mechanism) starting in 2024-25, Amazon could be a natural partner there as well. Amazon could also separately wind up factoring into the NBA’s upcoming media rights negotiations, and part of that could include some sort of League Pass/local RSN tie-in. There, the same benefits would apply for Amazon, albeit with a younger and more diverse audience than that of MLB.

In a sports viewing environment where everything is increasingly a tile on your smart TV, and less a cable provider or channel to tune into, Amazon is making itself a central hub (bundle, anyone?) that consumers want for this content. Such a move seems poised to supercharge Amazon’s nascent ad business in a way that competitors won’t find as easy to mimic.

[tower912]

No idea what the Brewers needs are, but Eric Haase is a decent depth signing.   Catcher and outfielder, has hit for power.   He forgot how to hit last year.   If he finds it, he is a righthanded bat that could get you 15 home runs.   Streaky, so he might get 5 of them in two weeks.

[Jockey]

Needed a backup catcher with Caratini moving on and Quero a year or two away.

I like the signing.

[wadesworld]

Stearns just scammed the Brewers.

[Jockey]

Stearns just scammed the Brewers.

I disagree. If the Brewers would have made this trade 2 years ago, I’d agree.

But as well as Taylor played in September, he would probably only be a 5th OF this year. Those guys are a dime a dozen.

And guys like Houser are easy to find. He’s the type of pitcher that KC or Pittsburg sign as a FA.

[cheebs09]

Frees up two 40 man spots and get an interesting arm. I don't love the return, but could be part of a series of moves.

[HutchwasClutch]

Stearns just scammed the Brewers.

Yes.  Although scam implies the Brewers think this is a good deal for them.  More on that below.  Breaking the trade down, they give up two veterans who aren’t all stars, but have had plenty of success at the major league level, aren’t injured, and will be part of next year’s Mets.  For a low level minor league pitcher who is coming off TJ surgery and hasn’t pitched above AA.  It was nothing more than cost cutting to avoid raises to both in arbitration. 

You recently asked what fan’s problem is with Attanasio.  This is a perfect example.  He doesn’t really care about winning.  He cares about keeping costs down and being profitable.  That’s his number one priority.  He only cares enough to put a competitive enough team on the field so attendance doesn’t crash.  This is why Stearns left.  This trade by any objective standard is a joke and fleecing by Stearns and the Mets. 

[The Hippie Satan of Hyperbole]

Yes.  Two veterans who aren’t all stars, but have had plenty of success at the major league level, aren’t injured, and will be part of next year’s Mets.  For a low level minor league pitcher who is coming off TJ surgery and hasn’t pitched above AA.  It was nothing more than cost cutting to avoid raises to both in arbitration. 

You recently asked what fan’s problem is with Attanasio.  This is a perfect example.  He doesn’t really care about winning.  He cares about keeping costs down and being profitable.  That’s his number one priority.  He only cares enough to put a competitive enough team on the field so attendance doesn’t crash.  This is why Stearns left.  This trade by any objective standard is a joke and fleecing by Stearns and the Mets. 

This is what smart, low revenue teams do. They get rid of arb eligible role players. Seriously Tyrone Taylor???

And of course he wants to win. That’s just silly talk.

[HutchwasClutch]

I disagree. If the Brewers would have made this trade 2 years ago, I’d agree.

But as well as Taylor played in September, he would probably only be a 5th OF this year. Those guys are a dime a dozen.

And guys like Houser are easy to find. He’s the type of pitcher that KC or Pittsburg sign as a FA.

Brewers could have kept Taylor as insurance.  Wiemer needs a lot of work, Mitchell is largely unproven and coming off a major injury.  Yelich is injured a lot, is a lousy outfielder who they can only play LF, and production dropped off the last month.  Houser is a solid, but unspectacular starter who isn’t injured. He is not an easy replace. Teams could do much worse than him in the rotation. And starting pitching depth is about as critical in importance as anything in baseball. Both players had plenty to offer next year’s Brewers. 

And they gave them away for a guy who probably won’t even pitch in ‘24 and may never see the majors. He was a low, at best middling prospect before his injury even. 

Stearns is a very smart guy and knows exactly what he’s doing. 

[cheebs09]

I don't think Stearns left due to Attanasio being cheap. I think he has always wanted to get back to his hometown team. The dynamics of a small market team probably played a large role, but I think if he had any success in Milwaukee, the Mets were always his dream.

[MUBurrow]

No doubt that a big part of the motivation for the Brewers was cutting $7MM of payroll for a backend starter and depth OF.  If that means you think its a bad deal for the Brewers because improving/maintaining the talent level on the field always should take precedence over $$, then I'm not going to convince you otherwise, but you should probably root for a team that doesn't play its home games in Milwaukee. 

I do think the return here was light.  It seems to me three years of Taylor alone should have been able to pull Crow entering a post-TJ dead year.  He's not a nothing prospect, but he has a lot of questions with the injury.  And a year of Houser at ~$5.5 has plus value and should have been good for at least an additional lottery ticket.

[jficke13]

While it might be an indictment of the Mets farm system or the Brewers farm system, or both, but pre-deal Crow was top 30 prospect by rating in the Mets system, and I just saw one rating org slot him in at #25 in the Brewers' system.

Quibble about opportunity costs/whether one could have gotten more for Houser/Taylor, but it's not like some decent number of evaluators don't view Crow as an arm with big-league potential.

[Dr. Blackheart]

Boras trying to bait the Cubs. 

https://www.audacy.com/670thescore/sports/chicago-cubs/scott-boras-hopes-cubs-will-step-to-re-sign-cody-bellinger

[Jockey]

Brewers could have kept Taylor as insurance.  Wiemer needs a lot of work, Mitchell is largely unproven and coming off a major injury.  Yelich is injured a lot, is a lousy outfielder who they can only play LF, and production dropped off the last month.  Houser is a solid, but unspectacular starter who isn’t injured. He is not an easy replace. Teams could do much worse than him in the rotation. And starting pitching depth is about as critical in importance as anything in baseball. Both players had plenty to offer next year’s Brewers. 

And they gave them away for a guy who probably won’t even pitch in ‘24 and may never see the majors. He was a low, at best middling prospect before his injury even. 

Stearns is a very smart guy and knows exactly what he’s doing.

A 30 year old guy with a career OBP of .294?

Guys like that are a dime a dozen.

[DegenerateDish]

With the Yamamoto signing, Dodgers in total have spent $1.1 billion so far this offseason.

[Jockey]

With the Yamamoto signing, Dodgers in total have spent $1.1 billion so far this offseason.

And they will make money from the investment.

[muwarrior69]

It was.  It will just take another few decades.

...along with divisional and inter league play.

[muwarrior69]

Interesting Stats:

Surprised by how few black players are in the leagues.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1310428/racial-diversity-mlb-players/

[CreightonWarrior]

Dodgers have spent $180 million more than the rest of league so far this offseason.

[TSmith34, Inc.]

Dodgers have spent $180 million more than the rest of league so far this offseason.

MLB has hit English Premier League levels of team salary disparity.

[MU1in77]

Dodgers have spent $180 million more than the rest of league so far this offseason.

It’s a good thing that MLB has the luxury tax to help small mid market teams stay competitive

[4everwarriors]

Ohtani shoulda waited fore a $billion, aina?

[JWags85]

Yamamoto is interesting to me in the fact that he is only 5'10.  There hasn't been a Cy Young winner under 6' in decades (I guess Lincecum was right on the border).  The only short high level SP I can think of in the league right now is Strohman.

His numbers and performance in Japan speak for themselves, he's been absolutely absurd the last few years.  And he's been on the MLB radar for much longer than that.  But still, $300MM for a power pitcher thats about 6 inches shorter than the average high for a Cy Young winner in the last 25 years is interesting on its face.