Count me as one that believes Utah State will be tough

[ChicosBailBonds]

Stew Morrill (1-6 NCAA tournament record)

Yup.  But 12 of the last 13 years, 20+ wins per year.   Overall, 17 years of 20+ wins.  He's a legendary coach on this side of the world.

He doesn't have a lot of NCAA wins because of the conference / teams he has coached get very low seeds and aren't supposed to win.

We should be victorious on Friday, I just don't buy this 20 point win prediction nonsense.  It will be a tough game.  Much like I said the Holy Cross, Alabama, Kentucky games would be tough!  They all were

[tower912]

Chicos, I usually defend your basketball opinions, particularly about Crean, but right now you are starting to sound like Murf.   I expect a tough game 4 hours from their home at altitude.   If our guys have figured out how to play without DJ, everyone contributing, no one trying to do too much, we win.   

[ChicosBailBonds]

Chicos, I usually defend your basketball opinions, particularly about Crean, but right now you are starting to sound like Murf.   I expect a tough game 4 hours from their home at altitude.   If our guys have figured out how to play without DJ, everyone contributing, no one trying to do too much, we win.   

I'm pretty sure I said we would win.     But I don't buy the 20 point drubbings that people are predicting.

[MUSF]

Chico's, most teams seeded 12 or better in the tourney are a tough out.  

That said, I think a loss here would be a major disappointment.  

[ChicosBailBonds]

Chico's, most teams seeded 12 or better in the tourney are a tough out.  

That said, I think a loss here would be a major disappointment.  

Agreed.  That's why the folks in this thread predicting an easy win, 20 points plus, double digits no problem....I love their optimism but I guess they don't watch much tournament hoops when all these games are tough outs.

[g0lden3agle]

Agreed.  That's why the folks in this thread predicting an easy win, 20 points plus, double digits no problem....I love their optimism but I guess they don't watch much tournament hoops when all these games are tough outs.

My 20 point prediction was a joke, based purely on the "Our God is better than your god" play.

[ChicosBailBonds]

My 20 point prediction was a joke, based purely on the "Our God is better than your god" play.

I need teal   

[g0lden3agle]

Yeah I was too lazy to edit it... going with my last two posts, has there ever been a "God's on our side" chant during any of our victories?  I went to a Catholic HS and that was a very popular chant to use towards the end of any game that we were going to close out as winners.  Interesting that it hasn't made it to the Collegiate level yet.

[NCMUFan]

What started like a good thread is quickly sounding extremely stupid.

[Muhoops85]

Yes, and their mascot is tough, too.  Just ask Pistol Pete.

Tall Titan, perhaps we can arrange some type of payment if you are willing to try to ride Big Blue.  

Thank goodness, our mascot is sans moustache.

[🏀]

Yes, and their mascot is tough, too.  Just ask Pistol Pete.

Tall Titan, perhaps we can arrange some type of payment if you are willing to try to ride Big Blue.  

Thank goodness, our mascot is sans moustache.

TT34 is very unconfrontational.

[THEbig0]

He's a legendary coach on this side of the world. He doesn't have a lot of NCAA wins because of the conference / teams he has coached get very low seeds and aren't supposed to win.

Actually, I was friends with Stew Morrill's son in  Montana when he was a coach for the Grizzlies back in the late 80s and 90s.  He is a good coach, but I wouldn't say legend - his teams actually could have been better for the talent they had those days (in Montana terms).  He seemed just like a normal guy to me at the time. Very nice though.  

[Muhoops85]

Actually, I was friends with Stew Morrill's son in  Montana when he was a coach for the Grizzlies back in the late 80s and 90s.  He is a good coach, but I wouldn't say legend - his teams actually could have been better for the talent they had those days (in Montana terms).  He seemed just like a normal guy to me at the time. Very nice though.  

I thought he was a Cubs fan!

[Henry Sugar]

Here's why I think Utah State will be tough.

Their strength is offensive eFG%, where they are #4 in the country.

Our weakness is defensive eFG%, where we are #253 in the country. 

Mix an opponent's strength against our weakness and you get bad things.

In fact, I hate to say it, but my prediction model right now says 8 point Utah State win.  Having said that, the model was a lot better during conference play because of consistency on opponents.  I'm sure that strength of opponents factors in here, but it doesn't change the fundamental idea that Utah State is strong in exactly an area where we are weak.

On the plus side, we were pretty solid on eFG% against SJU and Villanova.

[Pakuni]

Average age of starters is 23 I believe

In my world, at least, game experience against Big East competition trumps the life experience of getting doors slammed in your face while on a mission.
Utah St. players may be older, but they're not more experienced.

Utah St. seems a solid team, but their 30-4 record looks a lot less impressive when you get a look at their 134th ranked schedule schedule. They're 3-3 against teams in the Pomeroy top 100, with the wins coming by two points at home against Utah and twice over #97 Nevada (once at home, once on a neutral court). They haven't exactly gone against the kind of competition they'll see Friday.

The game is by no means a gimme for MU. Nothing is these days. But Utah St. may very well be the least fearsome #11 seed in the tourney.
Raise your hand if you'd prefer a rematch with Dayton.

[79Warrior]

I think we will win, but these 20 point blowout predictions....I'm not buying

Agreed. we are not blowing anybody out.

[NavinRJohnson]

but it doesn't change the fundamental idea that Utah State is strong in exactly an area where we are weak.

This is your specialty not mine, but isn't the opposite true as well?

[Henry Sugar]

This is your specialty not mine, but isn't the opposite true as well?

No, not really.

Their two major weaknesses are not forcing turnovers and 3 point defense.  One of our major strengths is protecting the ball, but we'd need to get to the point of only committing 6 turnovers to make a big difference.  That's a pitifully small number of turnovers.  And we're only average at three point shots.

I think that there's something to the "quality of opponents" argument too. 

[TVDirector]

Fri, Nov 14   Montana St.-Northern   W 71-50   --   --   
    Mon, Nov 17   at UCSB   W 61-59   --   --   
    Tue, Nov 25   Weber St.   W 75-49   --   --   
    Sat, Nov 29   Cal Poly   W 97-57   --   --   
    Tue, Dec 2   UC Irvine   W 74-62   --   --   
    Sat, Dec 6   BYU   L 63-68   --   --   
    Sat, Dec 13   at Utah Valley   W 69-50   --   --   
    Wed, Dec 17   at Southern Utah   W 72-65   --   --   
    Sat, Dec 20   at Idaho St.   W 67-57   --   --   
    Mon, Dec 22   Utah   W 66-64   --   --   
    Mon, Dec 29   Howard   W 85-45   --   --   
    Tue, Dec 30   Houston Baptist   W 94-77   --   --   
    Wed, Dec 31   Wyoming   W 90-85   --   --   
    Mon, Jan 5   Idaho   W 70-61   --   --   
    Thu, Jan 8   at Louisiana Tech   W 50-37   --   --   
    Sat, Jan 10   at New Mexico St.   W 77-67   --   --   
    Thu, Jan 15   Fresno St.   W 65-61   --   --   
    Sat, Jan 17   Boise St.   W 79-65   --   --   
    Thu, Jan 22   at San Jose St.   W 62-58   --   --   
    Sat, Jan 24   at Hawaii   W 67-51   --   --   
    Thu, Jan 29   Nevada   W 72-61   --   --   
    Sat, Jan 31   at Fresno St.   W 83-77   --   --   
    Thu, Feb 5   New Mexico St.   W 78-59   --   --   
    Sat, Feb 7   Louisiana Tech   W 60-52   --   --   
    Thu, Feb 12   at Idaho   W 62-53   --   --   
    Sat, Feb 14   at Boise St.   L 56-66   --   --   
    Wed, Feb 18   CSU Bakersfield   W 78-57   --   --   
    Sat, Feb 21   at St. Mary's   L 64-75   --   --   
    Thu, Feb 26   Hawaii   W 82-62   --   --   
    Sat, Feb 28   at Nevada   L 71-84   --   --   
    Sat, Mar 7   San Jose St.   W 89-77   --   --   
    Thu, Mar 12   Fresno St.   W 85-68   --   --   
    Fri, Mar 13   New Mexico St.   W 71-70   --   --   
    Sat, Mar 14   at Nevada   W 72-62

Western Athletic   Conf   All
 Utah St.   14-2   30-4
 Nevada   11-5   21-12
 Boise St.   9-7   19-12
 New Mexico St.   9-7   17-15
 Idaho   9-7   16-15
 Louisiana Tech   6-10   15-18
 San Jose St.   6-10   13-17
 Hawaii   5-11   13-17
 Fresno St.   3-13   13-21
 

[ChicosBailBonds]

In my world, at least, game experience against Big East competition trumps the life experience of getting doors slammed in your face while on a mission.
Utah St. players may be older, but they're not more experienced.

Utah St. seems a solid team, but their 30-4 record looks a lot less impressive when you get a look at their 134th ranked schedule schedule. They're 3-3 against teams in the Pomeroy top 100, with the wins coming by two points at home against Utah and twice over #97 Nevada (once at home, once on a neutral court). They haven't exactly gone against the kind of competition they'll see Friday.

The game is by no means a gimme for MU. Nothing is these days. But Utah St. may very well be the least fearsome #11 seed in the tourney.
Raise your hand if you'd prefer a rematch with Dayton.

Again, that's why I'm picking MU to win.

By the way, I don't slam doors in their face....I'm religiously tolerant and let them have their say.

[gjreda]

Here's why I think Utah State will be tough.

Their strength is offensive eFG%, where they are #4 in the country.

Our weakness is defensive eFG%, where we are #253 in the country. 

Mix an opponent's strength against our weakness and you get bad things.

In fact, I hate to say it, but my prediction model right now says 8 point Utah State win.  Having said that, the model was a lot better during conference play because of consistency on opponents.  I'm sure that strength of opponents factors in here, but it doesn't change the fundamental idea that Utah State is strong in exactly an area where we are weak.

On the plus side, we were pretty solid on eFG% against SJU and Villanova.

Henry, not sure what type of model you are doing, but if it's a regression, couldn't you throw in a SOS variable?  I'd be happy to compile them for you if that's the case.

[Pakuni]

No, not really.

Their two major weaknesses are not forcing turnovers and 3 point defense.  One of our major strengths is protecting the ball, but we'd need to get to the point of only committing 6 turnovers to make a big difference.  That's a pitifully small number of turnovers.  And we're only average at three point shots.

According to Pomeroy, the Aggies played the 174th most difficult schedule in the nation this year and the 211th most difficult non-conference schedule.
They played a whopping two games against tournament teams, a loss to BYU on a neutral court, and a two-point win at home over Utah.
I suspect the level of competition, in this case, has a huge impact on their numbers and why Pomeroy considers them the 56th best team in the country, well behind the likes of Notre Dame, Georgetown and Wisconsin.

[Henry Sugar]

According to Pomeroy, the Aggies played the 174th most difficult schedule in the nation this year and the 211th most difficult non-conference schedule.
They played a whopping two games against tournament teams, a loss to BYU on a neutral court, and a two-point win at home over Utah.
I suspect the level of competition, in this case, has a huge impact on their numbers and why Pomeroy considers them the 56th best team in the country, well behind the likes of Notre Dame, Georgetown and Wisconsin.

Then hopefully Marquette will have few problems shutting down their offense by forcing them into bad shots and committing turnovers.

[ChicosBailBonds]

According to Pomeroy, the Aggies played the 174th most difficult schedule in the nation this year and the 211th most difficult non-conference schedule.
They played a whopping two games against tournament teams, a loss to BYU on a neutral court, and a two-point win at home over Utah.
I suspect the level of competition, in this case, has a huge impact on their numbers and why Pomeroy considers them the 56th best team in the country, well behind the likes of Notre Dame, Georgetown and Wisconsin.

They played a more difficult out of conference schedule then we did, but that's nothing to be surprised about (we were 226th)

[Fred Garvin]

I understand the rankings an such,but it's hard to figure that they would have had a tougher non conference then us considering we played Dayton,Wisky,Northern Iowa and Tenn. that's 4 tourney teams.And they played 2.