Nothing good, either in a literal financial sense or in an overarching narrative sense.

https://painttouches.com/2024/05/22/what-does-the-potential-ncaa-settlement-mean-for-marquette-and-the-big-east/?utm_source=muscoop

Here's an example of what it will look like in practice.

Lens:

Much depends on where your house is, when you bought it and how much you have invested in it over the years.

Two years ago, we sold our home in NE Illinois. We owned it for 28 years and it was a very nice home. But it was and is in a part of the state where economic growth was sluggish. After factoring in capital improvements made on the house over that period, our capital gain was less than $1,000.

I could have done better in a passbook savings account.

Owning a home is more an emotional issue than an investment.

Either you got very unlucky or spent a whol lot of money on improvements that didn't increase the value of your home. Because over that 28-year period, the housing price index in the Chicago market more than doubled.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CHXRSA

I think it factors greatly.  However those that own homes and have 401k's are always going to feel better.  And over a long period of time those two things will always appreciate.

Lens:

Much depends on where your house is, when you bought it and how much you have invested in it over the years.

Two years ago, we sold our home in NE Illinois. We owned it for 28 years and it was a very nice home. But it was and is in a part of the state where economic growth was sluggish. After factoring in capital improvements made on the house over that period, our capital gain was less than $1,000.

I could have done better in a passbook savings account.

Owning a home is more an emotional issue than an investment.

82


I have asked this question to a good number of people and curious on your thoughts. For anyone that has owned their own home for 5+ years, could they afford to buy that same house today based off of their current income? Virtually everyone said there was a good chance they could not. Those that said yes stated that it would definitely make other living expenses much tighter.

My point is that I 100% believe there is a false sense of security for a good number of Americans. IMO, they likely are the ones that firmly believe the economy is strong. In their defense, it is strong for them because they have a lot more paper wealth than five years ago. I fall into that category but do try and look at the big picture. I highly doubt I would feel so good if my 401k dropped by 25% and my home back to 2000 price levels.

Your last point is understandable and reasonable, Goose. It's also been that way for most people forever. A severe stock-market drop and/or a house-price contraction is always unpleasant and might even threaten people's ability to function financially. Would you have felt any better about that 5 years ago or 10 or 20 or 30 years ago?

To answer your question, I don't doubt that many people could no longer afford to buy their houses. I'm not really sure what that means about the economy, however.

As for there being a false sense of security for many, that's undoubtedly true. Would you agree that for many others, there's probably not a false sense of security?

I can only look at two things when gauging the economy:

1. My personal circumstances. I am confident that my family is financially secure and could handle the kind of negative macro economic event that happens ever so often. We survived the pandemic plunge, the Great Recession, the dot-com bust and Black Monday - the major economic events of my adult life - and I am confident that we will do OK during the next one. (And there's always a "next one," regardless of who the president is or which political party is running Congress.)

2. The data. As I and others have said, the data points to a reasonably strong economy, one that any president (and any president's supporters) would willingly claim.

Feelings and anecdotes, and the dire warnings of politically motivated people, I'll leave those "measurements" for others to use.

I don't consider the economy to be anything close to perfect. I also fully allow that millions of Americans are struggling - as has always been the case, even when America was "great."

The Lens

My concern for me is extremely low. My worrying is for what I believe to be a far larger number of people struggling or have false sense of security than many on scoop feel are out there. There is a white collar employment issue and many of those people are highly compensated and currently without a job. I spoke with a senior level person last week that found herself out of a job for the first time in her career and she was told by her headhunter said that there are 10 to 1 people looking than jobs available at her level.

Hey, as rocky pointed out, what the hell do I know?